Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Climate impact studies of sediment transport on the Adriatic coastal zone

The study of the impact of climate change on the environment has been based, until very recently, on an global approach, whose interest from a local point of view is very limited. This thesis, on the contrary, has treated the study of the impact of climate change in the Adriatic Sea basin following a twofold strategy of regionalization and integration of numerical models in order to reproduce the present and future scenarios of the system through a more and more realistic and solid approach. In particular the focus of the study was on the impact on the physical environment and on the sediment transport in the basin. This latter is a very new and original issue, to our knowledge still uninvestigated. The study case of the coastal area of Montenegro was particularly studied, since it is characterized by an important supply of sediment through the Buna/Bojana river, second most important in the Adriatic basin in terms of flow. To do this, a methodology to introduce the tidal processes in a baroclinic primitive equations Ocean General Circulation Model was applied and tidal processes were successfully reproduced in the Adriatic Sea, analyzing also the impacts they have on the mean general circulation, on salt and heat transport and on mixing and stratification of the water column in the different seasons of the year. The new hydrodynamical model has been further coupled with a wave model and with a river and sea sediment transport model, showing good results in the reproduction of sediment transport processes. Finally this complex coupled platform was integrated in the period 2001-2030 under the A1B scenario of IPCC, and the impact of climate change on the physical system and on sediment transport was preliminarily evaluated.

Reconstruction of Etna recent flank eruptions for assessing diversion barrier project

The thesis contributed to the volcanic hazard assessment through the reconstruction of some historical flank eruptions of Etna in order to obtain quantitative data (volumes, effusion rates, etc.) for characterizing the recent effusive activity, quantifying the impact on the territory and defining mitigation actions for reducing the volcanic risk as for example containment barriers. The reconstruction was based on a quantitative approach using data extracted from aerial photographs and topographic maps. The approach allows to obtain the temporal evolution of the lava flow field and estimating the Time Average Discharge Rate (TADR) by dividing the volume emplaced over a given time interval for the corresponding duration. The analysis concerned the 2001, 1981 and 1928 Etna eruptions. The choice of these events is linked to their impact on inhabited areas. The results of the analysis showed an extraordinarily high effusion rate for the 1981 and 1928 eruptions (over 600 m^3/s), unusual for Etna eruptions. For the 1981 Etna eruption an eruptive model was proposed to explain the high discharge rate. The obtained TADRs were used as input data for simulations of the propagation of the lava flows for evaluating different scenarios of volcanic hazard and analyse different mitigation actions against lava flow invasion. It was experienced how numerical simulations could be adopted for evaluating the effectiveness of barrier construction and for supporting their optimal design. In particular, the gabions were proposed as an improvement for the construction of barriers with respect to the earthen barriers. The gabion barriers allow to create easily modular structures reducing the handled volumes and the intervention time. For evaluating operational constrain an experimental test was carried out to test the filling of the gabions with volcanic rock and evaluating their deformation during transport and placement.

From fossil to sustainable diets: an assessment of farming energy footprint

The dependence of industrial agricolture on fossil fuels has been assessed in two comparative case studies between Italy (Emilia-Romagna and Piemonte)and Missouri. The first is related to dairy farming; 15 different farms were surveyed, divided into three different groups: grain based, pasture based and organic. The second is devoted to rice cropping; 12 holdings were examined divided into two groups: conventional and organic. Energy footprint was determined for structures, machinery, fertilizers, pesticides, fuel, electricity, feed and seeds. Possible scenarios of transition to a more sustainable agricolture based on renewable energy sources were analized in detail for all the farms analized.

Management and routing algorithms for ad-hoc and sensor networks

Large scale wireless adhoc networks of computers, sensors, PDAs etc. (i.e. nodes) are revolutionizing connectivity and leading to a paradigm shift from centralized systems to highly distributed and dynamic environments. An example of adhoc networks are sensor networks, which are usually composed by small units able to sense and transmit to a sink elementary data which are successively processed by an external machine. Recent improvements in the memory and computational power of sensors, together with the reduction of energy consumptions, are rapidly changing the potential of such systems, moving the attention towards datacentric sensor networks. A plethora of routing and data management algorithms have been proposed for the network path discovery ranging from broadcasting/floodingbased approaches to those using global positioning systems (GPS). We studied WGrid, a novel decentralized infrastructure that organizes wireless devices in an adhoc manner, where each node has one or more virtual coordinates through which both message routing and data management occur without reliance on either flooding/broadcasting operations or GPS. The resulting adhoc network does not suffer from the deadend problem, which happens in geographicbased routing when a node is unable to locate a neighbor closer to the destination than itself. WGrid allow multidimensional data management capability since nodes' virtual coordinates can act as a distributed database without needing neither special implementation or reorganization. Any kind of data (both single and multidimensional) can be distributed, stored and managed. We will show how a location service can be easily implemented so that any search is reduced to a simple query, like for any other data type. WGrid has then been extended by adopting a replication methodology. We called the resulting algorithm WRGrid. Just like WGrid, WRGrid acts as a distributed database without needing neither special implementation nor reorganization and any kind of data can be distributed, stored and managed. We have evaluated the benefits of replication on data management, finding out, from experimental results, that it can halve the average number of hops in the network. The direct consequence of this fact are a significant improvement on energy consumption and a workload balancing among sensors (number of messages routed by each node). Finally, thanks to the replications, whose number can be arbitrarily chosen, the resulting sensor network can face sensors disconnections/connections, due to failures of sensors, without data loss. Another extension to {WGrid} is {W*Grid} which extends it by strongly improving network recovery performance from link and/or device failures that may happen due to crashes or battery exhaustion of devices or to temporary obstacles. W*Grid guarantees, by construction, at least two disjoint paths between each couple of nodes. This implies that the recovery in W*Grid occurs without broadcasting transmissions and guaranteeing robustness while drastically reducing the energy consumption. An extensive number of simulations shows the efficiency, robustness and traffic road of resulting networks under several scenarios of device density and of number of coordinates. Performance analysis have been compared to existent algorithms in order to validate the results.

Farm tourism: a cross-country empirical study in Germany and Italy

PROBLEM In the last few years farm tourism or agritourism as it is also referred to has enjoyed increasing success because of its generally acknowledged role as a promoter of economic and social development of rural areas. As a consequence, a plethora of studies have been dedicated to this tourist sector, focusing on a variety of issues. Nevertheless, despite the difficulties of many farmers to orient their business towards potential customers, the contribution of the marketing literature has been moderate. PURPOSE This dissertation builds upon studies which advocate the necessity of farm tourism to innovate itself according to the increasingly demanding needs of customers. Henceforth, the purpose of this dissertation is to critically evaluate the level of professionalism reached in the farm tourism market within a marketing approach. METHODOLOGY This dissertation is a cross-country perspective incorporating the marketing of farm tourism studied in Germany and Italy. Hence, the marketing channels of this tourist sector are examined both from the supply and the demand side by means of five exploratory studies. The data collection has been conducted in the timeframe of 2006 to 2009 in manifold ways (online survey, catalogues of industry associations, face-to-face interviews, etc.) according to the purpose of the research of each study project. The data have been analyzed using multivariate statistical analysis. FINDINGS A comprehensive literature review provides the state of the art of the main differences and similarities of farm tourism in the two countries of study. The main findings contained in the empirical chapters provide insights on many aspects of agritourism including how the expectations of farm operators and customers differ, which development scenarios of farm tourism are more likely to meet individuals’ needs, how new technologies can impact the demand for farm tourism, etc. ORIGINALITY/VALUE The value of this study is in the investigation of the process by which farmers’ participation in the development of this sector intersects with consumer consumption patterns. Focusing on this process should allow farm operators and others including related businesses to more efficiently allocate resources.

Applicazione di strumenti e metodi per la gestione ambientale di un territorio vasto - Sviluppo di un sistema di gestione ambientale in un ente pubblico secondo lo schema europeo EMAS e analisi di un sistema energetico territoriale

Environmental Management includes many components, among which we can include Environmental Management Systems (EMS), Environmental Reporting and Analysis, Environmental Information Systems and Environmental Communication. In this work two applications are presented: the developement and implementation of an Environmental Management System in local administrations, according to the European scheme "EMAS", and the analysis of a territorial energy system through scenario building and environmental sustainability assessment. Both applications are linked by the same objective, which is the quest for more scientifically sound elements; in fact, both EMS and energy planning are oftec carachterized by localism and poor comparability. Emergy synthesis, proposed by ecologist H.T. Odum and described in his book "Environmental Accounting: Emergy and Environmental Decision Making" (1996) has been chosen and applied as an environmental evaluation tool, in order complete the analysis with an assessment of the "global value" of goods and processes. In particular, eMergy syntesis has been applied in order to improve the evaluation of the significance of environmental aspects in an EMS, and in order to evaluate the environmental performance of three scenarios of future evolution of the energy system. Regarding EMS, in this work an application of an EMS together with the CLEAR methodology for environmental accounting is discussed, in order to improve the identification of the environmental aspects; data regarding environmental aspects and significant ones for 4 local authorities are also presented, together with a preliminary proposal for the integration of the assessment of the significance of environmental aspects with eMergy synthesis. Regarding the analysis of an energy system, in this work the carachterization of the current situation is presented together with the overall energy balance and the evaluation of the emissions of greenhouse gases; moreover, three scenarios of future evolution are described and discussed. The scenarios have been realized with the support of the LEAP software ("Long Term Energy Alternatives Planning System" by SEI - "Stockholm Environment Institute"). Finally, the eMergy synthesis of the current situation and of the three scenarios is shown.

Tracing AGN accretion and star formation in Herschel galaxies

In this Thesis, we study the physical properties and the cosmic evolution of AGN and their host galaxies since z∼3. Our analysis exploits samples of star forming galaxies detected with Herschel at far-IR wavelengths (from 70 up to 500 micron) in different extragalactic surveys, such as COSMOS and the deep GOODS (South and North) fields. The broad-band ancillary data available in COSMOS and the GOODS fields, allows us to implement Herschel and Spitzer photometry with multi-wavelength ancillary data. We perform a multicomponent SED-fitting decomposition to decouple the emission due to star formation from that due to AGN accretion, and to estimate both host-galaxy parameters (such as stellar mass, M* and star formation rate, SFR), and nuclear intrinsic bolometric luminosities. We use the individual estimates of AGN bolometric luminosity obtained through SED-fitting decomposition to reconstruct the redshit evolution of the AGN bolometric luminosity function since z∼3. The resulting trends are used to estimate the overall AGN accretion rate density at different cosmic epochs and to trace the first ever estimate of the AGN accretion history from an IR survey. Later on, we focus our study on the connection between AGN accretion and integrated galaxy properties. We analyse the relationships of AGN accretion with galaxy properties in the SFR-M* plane and at different cosmic epochs. Finally, we infer what is the parameter that best correlates with AGN accretion, comparing our results with previous studies and discussing their physical implications in the context of current scenarios of AGN/galaxy evolution.

Antropologia del lavoro. Nuovi scenari di antropologia applicata

In questa tesi viene presentata una ricerca di campo che si configura come esempio di un’antropologia applicata alle dinamiche lavorative all’interno di un’azienda ICT italiana. Fulcro della trattazione è la riflessione sui diversi aspetti di un’analisi antropologica del clima aziendale, condotta sulla base di una rilevazione dei processi lavorativi presso una società italiana specializzata in progetti di digital marketing. Il lavoro associato alle tecnologie di ultima generazione non è impersonale o dettato soltanto da regole esterne, ma piuttosto un lavoro dal forte carattere rituale, sociale, morale e performativo, dove soggetti, ruoli, idee, scelte e problematiche si intrecciano secondo modalità uniche ed irripetibili, rintracciabili anche attraverso l’etnografia. E’ dunque necessario dare visibilità al ruolo attivo dei lavoratori nel loro essere contemporaneamente individui e soggetti che lavorano. Partendo da una riflessione su lavoro e tecnologia all’interno di un quadro interdisciplinare che vede coinvolte - insieme all’antropologia - la sociologia, l’economia e la storia, ci si sofferma sulle potenzialità dell’antropologia del lavoro. Dopo aver ripercorso tutti i passi della ricerca di campo presso l’azienda, viene condivisa una più ampia considerazione sul ruolo dell’antropologia applicata al lavoro in contesti aziendali. Infine l’esperienza di antropologa in azienda viene posta a confronto con un’altra attività svolta dalla stessa autrice in ambito accademico nel campo dell’antropologia dell’educazione. Gli studi presi in considerazione e le esperienze concrete offrono la possibilità di affrontare il tema dell’antropologia del lavoro all’interno di una più vasta riflessione sulla necessità di sviluppare un’antropologia applicata in Italia. Essa non occupa ancora un posto rilevante nello scenario della vita pubblica, ma molti sono gli sforzi che si stanno compiendo in questa direzione. Uno sguardo positivo verso il futuro e la consapevolezza di un’antropologia che è insieme azione, impegno, partecipazione e sperimentazione etnografica concludono la tesi.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.