Strategie di sviluppo sostenibile: studio e applicazione della metodologia di analisi degli scenari in campo agro-ambientale

L’obiettivo del lavoro svolto nell’ambito del ciclo di dottorato è stato quello dell’applicazione della metodologia di analisi degli scenari, nell’ottica dello studio e applicazione di un metodo di analisi integrato e multidisciplinare che consenta individuare strategie di sviluppo sostenibile in relazione alla questione indagata. Lo studio sviluppato nel corso del dottorato è stato impostato su presupposti forniti dalla Regione Toscana (in entrambi i casi di studio trattati), che ha finanziato, attraverso la sua Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e Innovazione in ambito Agricolo (ARSIA), due Progetti di ricerca volti all’individuazione di strategie di sviluppo sostenibile concernenti due tematiche di particolare interesse in ambito regionale: lo sviluppo di coltivazioni non-food (biocarburanti, biomasse da energia, biopolimeri, biolubrificanti, fibre vegetali, coloranti naturali, fitofarmaci di origine vegetale) e la valutazione della possibilità di coesistenza tra colture convenzionali (non Geneticamente Modificate) e colture GM, in relazione alla Raccomandazione della Commissione 2003/556/CE che afferma che deve essere garantita la coesistenza tra colture transgeniche, convenzionali e biologiche, ovvero che devono essere presenti le condizioni per cui ciascun metodo di coltivazione possa poter essere adottato e praticato in UE. La sostenibilità delle situazioni studiate è stata valutata fornendo informazioni non solo per la situazioni attuali, ma anche per possibili evoluzioni future, così come richiesto dai principi dello sviluppo sostenibile. A tal proposito, occorre applicare metodologie di analisi che consentano di poter identificare obiettivi strategici in funzione dei cambiamenti che potrebbero essere registrati, in corrispondenza dell’evolversi delle diverse situazioni nel tempo. La metodologia di analisi in grado di soddisfare questi requisiti può essere identificata nell’analisi di scenario (scenario analysis), che si configura come uno strumento di analisi strategica in grado di riassumere numerose informazioni e dati riferiti agli attori, agli obiettivi, agli strumenti, alle cause ed agli effetti indotti da un cambiamento che potrebbe essere provocato da uno o più fattori contemplati nel corso dell’analisi. Questo metodo di analisi rappresenta un’importante strumento di ausilio alla definizione di politiche e strategie, che si rende particolarmente utile nel campo della public choice, come dimostrato dalle applicazioni presentate nel corso del lavoro.

Decoding complex flow phenomena via Dynamic Mode Decomposition

In this thesis, the viability of the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) as a technique to analyze and model complex dynamic real-world systems is presented. This method derives, directly from data, computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) which can replace too onerous or unavailable high-fidelity physics-based models. Optimizations and extensions to the standard implementation of the methodology are proposed, investigating diverse case studies related to the decoding of complex flow phenomena. The flexibility of this data-driven technique allows its application to high-fidelity fluid dynamics simulations, as well as time series of real systems observations. The resulting ROMs are tested against two tasks: (i) reduction of the storage requirements of high-fidelity simulations or observations; (ii) interpolation and extrapolation of missing data. The capabilities of DMD can also be exploited to alleviate the cost of onerous studies that require many simulations, such as uncertainty quantification analysis, especially when dealing with complex high-dimensional systems. In this context, a novel approach to address parameter variability issues when modeling systems with space and time-variant response is proposed. Specifically, DMD is merged with another model-reduction technique, namely the Polynomial Chaos Expansion, for uncertainty quantification purposes. Useful guidelines for DMD deployment result from the study, together with the demonstration of its potential to ease diagnosis and scenario analysis when complex flow processes are involved.

Neutronics analyses for fast spectrum nuclear systems and scenario studies for advanced nuclear fuel cycles

The present PhD thesis summarizes the three-years study about the neutronic investigation of a new concept nuclear reactor aiming at the optimization and the sustainable management of nuclear fuel in a possible European scenario. A new generation nuclear reactor for the nuclear reinassance is indeed desired by the actual industrialized world, both for the solution of the energetic question arising from the continuously growing energy demand together with the corresponding reduction of oil availability, and the environment question for a sustainable energy source free from Long Lived Radioisotopes and therefore geological repositories. Among the Generation IV candidate typologies, the Lead Fast Reactor concept has been pursued, being the one top rated in sustainability. The European Lead-cooled SYstem (ELSY) has been at first investigated. The neutronic analysis of the ELSY core has been performed via deterministic analysis by means of the ERANOS code, in order to retrieve a stable configuration for the overall design of the reactor. Further analyses have been carried out by means of the Monte Carlo general purpose transport code MCNP, in order to check the former one and to define an exact model of the system. An innovative system of absorbers has been conceptualized and designed for both the reactivity compensation and regulation of the core due to cycle swing, as well as for safety in order to guarantee the cold shutdown of the system in case of accident. Aiming at the sustainability of nuclear energy, the steady-state nuclear equilibrium has been investigated and generalized into the definition of the ``extended'' equilibrium state. According to this, the Adiabatic Reactor Theory has been developed, together with a New Paradigm for Nuclear Power: in order to design a reactor that does not exchange with the environment anything valuable (thus the term ``adiabatic''), in the sense of both Plutonium and Minor Actinides, it is required indeed to revert the logical design scheme of nuclear cores, starting from the definition of the equilibrium composition of the fuel and submitting to the latter the whole core design. The New Paradigm has been applied then to the core design of an Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor complying with the ELSY overall system layout. A complete core characterization has been done in order to asses criticality and power flattening; a preliminary evaluation of the main safety parameters has been also done to verify the viability of the system. Burn up calculations have been then performed in order to investigate the operating cycle for the Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor; the fuel performances have been therefore extracted and inserted in a more general analysis for an European scenario. The present nuclear reactors fleet has been modeled and its evolution simulated by means of the COSI code in order to investigate the materials fluxes to be managed in the European region. Different plausible scenarios have been identified to forecast the evolution of the European nuclear energy production, including the one involving the introduction of Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactors, and compared to better analyze the advantages introduced by the adoption of new concept reactors. At last, since both ELSY and the ALFR represent new concept systems based upon innovative solutions, the neutronic design of a demonstrator reactor has been carried out: such a system is intended to prove the viability of technology to be implemented in the First-of-a-Kind industrial power plant, with the aim at attesting the general strategy to use, to the largest extent. It was chosen then to base the DEMO design upon a compromise between demonstration of developed technology and testing of emerging technology in order to significantly subserve the purpose of reducing uncertainties about construction and licensing, both validating ELSY/ALFR main features and performances, and to qualify numerical codes and tools.

Cambiamenti dello scenario epidemiologico e clinico dell'epatocarcinoma in Italia nell'ultimo ventennio

Background & Aims: This study investigates whether the aetiologic changes in liver disease and the improved management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have modified the clinical scenario of this tumour over the last 20 years in Italy. Methods: Retrospective study based on the analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 3027 HCC patients managed in 11 centres. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the period of HCC diagnosis: 1987–1996 (year of the ‘‘Milano criteria’’ publication), 1997–2001 (year of release of the EASL guidelines for HCC), and 2002–2008. Results: The significant changes were: (1) progressive patient ageing; (2) increasing prevalence of HCV infection until 2001, with a subsequent decrease, when the alcoholic aetiology increased; (3) liver function improvement, until 2001; (4) increasing ‘‘incidental’’ at the expense of ‘‘symptomatic’’ diagnoses, until 2001; (5) unchanged prevalence of tumours diagnosed during surveillance (around 50%), with an increasing use of the 6- month schedule; (6) favourable HCC ‘‘stage migration’’, until 2001; (7) increasing use of percutaneous ablation; (8) improving survival, until 2001. Conclusions: Over the last 20 years, several aetiologic and clinical features regarding HCC have changed. The survival improvement observed until 2001 was due to an increasing number of tumours diagnosed in early stages and in a background of compensated cirrhosis, and a growing and better use of locoregional treatments. However, the prevalence of early cancers and survival did not increase further in the last years, a result inciting national policies aimed at implementing surveillance programmes for at risk patients.

Performance Analysis and Improvements for the Future Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS)

This thesis deals with the development of the upcoming aeronautical mobile airport communications system (AeroMACS) system. We analyzed the performance of AeroMACS and we investigated potential solutions for enhancing its performance. Since the most critical results correspond to the channel scenario having less diversity1, we tackled this problem investigating potential solutions for increasing the diversity of the system and therefore improving its performance. We accounted different forms of diversity as space diversity and time diversity. More specifically, space (antenna and cooperative) diversity and time diversity are analyzed as countermeasures for the harsh fading conditions that are typical of airport environments. Among the analyzed techniques, two novel concepts are introduced, namely unequal diversity coding and flexible packet level codes. The proposed techniques have been analyzed on a novel airport channel model, derived from a measurement campaign at the airport of Munich (Germany). The introduced techniques largely improve the performance of the conventional AeroMACS link; representing thus appealing solutions for the long term evolution of the system.

An Analysis of Living Conditions in Rural Villages in China. A New Geography of the Country.

Analysts, politicians and international players from all over the world look at China as one of the most powerful countries on the international scenario, and as a country whose economic development can significantly impact on the economies of the rest of the world. However many aspects of this country have still to be investigated. First the still fundamental role played by Chinese rural areas for the general development of the country from a political, economic and social point of view. In particular, the way in which the rural areas have influenced the social stability of the whole country has been widely discussed due to their strict relationship with the urban areas where most people from the countryside emigrate searching for a job and a better life. In recent years many studies have mostly focused on the urbanization phenomenon with little interest in the living conditions in rural areas and in the deep changes which have occurred in some, mainly agricultural provinces. An analysis of the level of infrastructure is one of the main aspects which highlights the principal differences in terms of living conditions between rural and urban areas. In this thesis, I first carried out the analysis through the multivariate statistics approach (Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis) in order to define the new map of rural areas based on the analysis of living conditions. In the second part I elaborated an index (Living Conditions Index) through the Fuzzy Expert/Inference System. Finally I compared this index (LCI) to the results obtained from the cluster analysis drawing geographic maps. The data source is the second national agricultural census of China carried out in 2006. In particular, I analysed the data refer to villages but aggregated at province level.

Techniques and Methods for a multi-scale analysis of neuromuscular fatigue

This thesis proposes an integrated holistic approach to the study of neuromuscular fatigue in order to encompass all the causes and all the consequences underlying the phenomenon. Starting from the metabolic processes occurring at the cellular level, the reader is guided toward the physiological changes at the motorneuron and motor unit level and from this to the more general biomechanical alterations. In Chapter 1 a list of the various definitions for fatigue spanning several contexts has been reported. In Chapter 2, the electrophysiological changes in terms of motor unit behavior and descending neural drive to the muscle have been studied extensively as well as the biomechanical adaptations induced. In Chapter 3 a study based on the observation of temporal features extracted from sEMG signals has been reported leading to the need of a more robust and reliable indicator during fatiguing tasks. Therefore, in Chapter 4, a novel bi-dimensional parameter is proposed. The study on sEMG-based indicators opened a scenario also on neurophysiological mechanisms underlying fatigue. For this purpose, in Chapter 5, a protocol designed for the analysis of motor unit-related parameters during prolonged fatiguing contractions is presented. In particular, two methodologies have been applied to multichannel sEMG recordings of isometric contractions of the Tibialis Anterior muscle: the state-of-the-art technique for sEMG decomposition and a coherence analysis on MU spike trains. The importance of a multi-scale approach has been finally highlighted in the context of the evaluation of cycling performance, where fatigue is one of the limiting factors. In particular, the last chapter of this thesis can be considered as a paradigm: physiological, metabolic, environmental, psychological and biomechanical factors influence the performance of a cyclist and only when all of these are kept together in a novel integrative way it is possible to derive a clear model and make correct assessments.

Displacement Analysis of Under-Constrained Cable-Driven Parallel Robots

This dissertation studies the geometric static problem of under-constrained cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs) supported by n cables, with n ≤ 6. The task consists of determining the overall robot configuration when a set of n variables is assigned. When variables relating to the platform posture are assigned, an inverse geometric static problem (IGP) must be solved; whereas, when cable lengths are given, a direct geometric static problem (DGP) must be considered. Both problems are challenging, as the robot continues to preserve some degrees of freedom even after n variables are assigned, with the final configuration determined by the applied forces. Hence, kinematics and statics are coupled and must be resolved simultaneously. In this dissertation, a general methodology is presented for modelling the aforementioned scenario with a set of algebraic equations. An elimination procedure is provided, aimed at solving the governing equations analytically and obtaining a least-degree univariate polynomial in the corresponding ideal for any value of n. Although an analytical procedure based on elimination is important from a mathematical point of view, providing an upper bound on the number of solutions in the complex field, it is not practical to compute these solutions as it would be very time-consuming. Thus, for the efficient computation of the solution set, a numerical procedure based on homotopy continuation is implemented. A continuation algorithm is also applied to find a set of robot parameters with the maximum number of real assembly modes for a given DGP. Finally, the end-effector pose depends on the applied load and may change due to external disturbances. An investigation into equilibrium stability is therefore performed.

Statistical Analysis and Modelling Aspects of Thermally Driven Turbulence

The present work aims to provide a deeper understanding of thermally driven turbulence and to address some modelling aspects related to the physics of the flow. For this purpose, two idealized systems are investigated by Direct Numerical Simulation: the rotating and non-rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The preliminary study of the flow topologies shows how the coherent structures organise into different patterns depending on the rotation rate. From a statistical perspective, the analysis of the turbulent kinetic energy and temperature variance budgets allows to identify the flow regions where the production, the transport, and the dissipation of turbulent fluctuations occur. To provide a multi-scale description of the flows, a theoretical framework based on the Kolmogorov and Yaglom equations is applied for the first time to the Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The analysis shows how the spatial inhomogeneity modulates the dynamics at different scales and wall-distances. Inside the core of the flow, the space of scales can be divided into an inhomogeneity-dominated range at large scales, an inertial-like range at intermediate scales and a dissipative range at small scales. This classic scenario breaks close to the walls, where the inhomogeneous mechanisms and the viscous/diffusive processes are important at every scale and entail more complex dynamics. The same theoretical framework is extended to the filtered velocity and temperature fields of non-rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The analysis of the filtered Kolmogorov and Yaglom equations reveals the influence of the residual scales on the filtered dynamics both in physical and scale space, highlighting the effect of the relative position between the filter length and the crossover that separates the inhomogeneity-dominated range from the quasi-homogeneous range. The assessment of the filtered and residual physics results to be instrumental for the correct use of the existing Large-Eddy Simulation models and for the development of new ones.

Analysis of the main phenomena affecting solid rocket motors internal ballistics

In solid rocket motors, the absence of combustion controllability and the large amount of financial resources involved in full-scale firing tests, increase the importance of numerical simulations in order to asses stringent mission thrust requirements and evaluate the influence of thrust chamber phenomena affecting the grain combustion. Among those phenomena, grain local defects (propellant casting inclusions and debondings), combustion heat accumulation involving pressure peaks (Friedman Curl effect), and case-insulating thermal protection material ablation affect thrust prediction in terms of not negligible deviations with respect to the nominal expected trace. Most of the recent models have proposed a simplified treatment to the problem using empirical corrective functions, with the disadvantages of not fully understanding the physical dynamics and thus of not obtaining predictive results for different configurations of solid rocket motors in a boundary conditions-varied scenario. This work is aimed to introduce different mathematical approaches to model, analyze, and predict the abovementioned phenomena, presenting a detailed physical interpretation based on existing SRMs configurations. Internal ballistics predictions are obtained with an in-house simulation software, where the adoption of a dynamic three-dimensional triangular mesh together with advanced computer graphics methods, allows the previous target to be reached. Numerical procedures are explained in detail. Simulation results are carried out and discussed based on experimental data.

Can gut microbiota analysis be beneficial for ex-situ and in-situ conservation of threatened animal species?

Ex-situ conservation and the in-situ conservation of natural habitats are the tools to conserve biodiversity. Habitats and ecosystems have been becoming altered by human activities and a growing number of species requires form of management to ensure their survival. Conservation queries become more complex and urgent. Developing scientifically based and innovative approaches to ex-situ conservation is necessary. Recent studies underline importance of gut microbiome in animal health with implications for animal conservation and management. Animal and human studies have demonstrated that environmental factors can impact gut microbiome composition. Within this scenario, the present work focused on species belonging to different taxa, reptiles and mammals: Aldabrachelys gigantea, the giant tortoise of the Seychelles islands and Indri indri, the greatest leaving lemur of Madagascar. The Seychelles giant tortoise is vulnerable species with declining population, whereas the indri is a critically endangered species that could reach the extinction within 25 years. Both need research to help them to survive. Tortoises live for very long time and to observe how they can afford the environmental changes is very difficult. Indris, instead, are able to survive only in a small area of the Madagascar forest, with a very strong link between the species’ survival and the environment. The obtained results underline importance of environmental factors, both in-situ and ex-situ, for species conservation. Microbiome could help the organisms to respond on a short timescale and cope with, environmental changes. However, species with long generation time might not be able to adapt to fast changes but bacteria with a short generation time can adapt on a shorter timescale allowing the host to cope with fluctuating environment. Gut microbiome plays an important role in an animal’s health and has the potential to improve the management of individuals under human care for conservation purposes.

Relationship between phenotype and environment in marine calcifying organisms: exploring growth and shell properties of different mollusks species in past and modern scenario

Coastal ecosystems represent an inestimable source of biodiversity, being among the most productive areas on the planet. Despite the great ecological and economic value of those environments, many threats endanger the species living in this ecosystem, like the rapid warming and the sea acidification, among many other. Benthic calcifying organisms (e.g. mollusks, corals and echinoderms) in particular, are among the most exposed to those hazards. These organisms use calcium carbonate as a structural and protective material through the biomineralization process, biologically controlled by the organism, but nevertheless, strongly influenced by the environmental surroundings. Evaluating how a changing environment can influence the process of biomineralization is critical to understand how those species of great ecological and economic importance will face the ongoing climate change. This thesis investigates the mechanism of biomineralization in different mollusks’ species of the Adriatic Sea, providing detailed descriptions of shells skeletal, biometric and growth parameters. Applying a multidisciplinary and multi-scale research approach, the influence of external environmental factors on the process of shell formation has been investigated. To achieve this purpose analysis were conducted both on current populations and on fossil remain, which allows to investigate ecological responses to past climate transitions. Mollusks’ shells in fact are one of the best tools to understand climate change in the past, present and future, since they record the environmental conditions prevailed during their life, reflected on the geochemical properties, microstructure and growth of the shell. This approach allowed to overcome the time scale limit imposed by field and laboratory survey, and better understand species long term adaptive response to changing environment, a crucial issue to define proper conservation and management strategies. Furthermore, the investigation of fossil record of mollusks assemblages offered the opportunity to evaluate the long-term biotic response to anthropogenic stressors in the north Adriatic Sea.

Methodologies for the analysis and interpretation of environmental datasets from areas interested by offshore activities

The exploitation of hydrocarbon reservoirs by the oil and gas industries represents one of the most relevant and concerning anthropic stressor in various marine areas worldwide and the presence of extractive structures can have severe consequences on the marine environment. Environmental monitoring surveys are carried out to monitor the effects and impacts of offshore energy facilities. Macrobenthic communities, inhabiting the soft-bottom, represent a key component of these surveys given their great responsiveness to natural and anthropic changes. A comprehensive collection of monitoring data from four Italian seas was used to investigate distributional pattern of macrozoobenthos assemblages confirming a high spatial variability in relation to the environmental variables analyzed. Since these datasets could represent a powerful tool for the industrial and scientific research, the steps and standardized procedures needed to obtain robust and comparable high-quality data were investigated and outlined. Over recent years, decommissioning of old platforms is a growing topic in this sector, involving many actors in the various decision-making processes. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, specific for the Adriatic Sea, was developed to investigate the impacts of decommissioning of a gas platform on environmental and socio-economic aspects, to select the best decommissioning scenario. From the scenarios studied, the most impacting one has resulted to be total removal, affecting all the faunal component considered in the study. Currently, the European nations are increasing the production of energy from offshore wind farms with an exponential expansion. A comparative study of methodologies used five countries of the North Sea countries was carried out to investigate the best approaches to monitor the effects of wind farms on the benthic communities. In the foreseeable future, collaboration between industry, scientific communities, national and international policies are needed to gain knowledge concerning the effects of these industrial activities on the ecological status of the ecosystems.