10 resultados para Scale Of Epidemic

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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This thesis is a part of a larger study about the characterization of mechanical and histomorphometrical properties of bone. The main objects of this study were the bone tissue properties and its resistance to mechanical loads. Moreover, the knowledge about the equipment selected to carry out the analyses, the micro-computed tomography (micro-CT), was improved. Particular attention was given to the reliability over time of the measuring instrument. In order to understand the main characteristics of bone mechanical properties a study of the skeletal, the bones of which it is composed and biological principles that drive their formation and remodelling, was necessary. This study has led to the definition of two macro-classes describing the main components responsible for the resistance to fracture of bone: quantity and quality of bone. The study of bone quantity is the current clinical standard measure for so-called bone densitometry, and research studies have amply demonstrated that the amount of tissue is correlated with its mechanical properties of elasticity and fracture. However, the models presented in the literature, including information on the mere quantity of tissue, have often been limited in describing the mechanical behaviour. Recent investigations have underlined that also the bone-structure and the tissue-mineralization play an important role in the mechanical characterization of bone tissue. For this reason in this thesis the class defined as bone quality was mainly studied, splitting it into two sub-classes of bone structure and tissue quality. A study on bone structure was designed to identify which structural parameters, among the several presented in the literature, could be integrated with the information about quantity, in order to better describe the mechanical properties of bone. In this way, it was also possible to analyse the iteration between structure and function. It has been known for long that bone tissue is capable of remodeling and changing its internal structure according to loads, but the dynamics of these changes are still being analysed. This part of the study was aimed to identify the parameters that could quantify the structural changes of bone tissue during the development of a given disease: osteoarthritis. A study on tissue quality would have to be divided into different classes, which would require a scale of analysis not suitable for the micro-CT. For this reason the study was focused only on the mineralization of the tissue, highlighting the difference between bone density and tissue density, working in a context where there is still an ongoing scientific debate.

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Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

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Supramolecular chemistry is a multidisciplinary field which impinges on other disciplines, focusing on the systems made up of a discrete number of assembled molecular subunits. The forces responsible for the spatial organization are intermolecular reversible interactions. The supramolecular architectures I was interested in are Rotaxanes, mechanically-interlocked architectures consisting of a "dumbbell shaped molecule", threaded through a "macrocycle" where the stoppers at the end of the dumbbell prevent disassociation of components and catenanes, two or more interlocked macrocycles which cannot be separated without breaking the covalent bonds. The aim is to introduce one or more paramagnetic units to use the ESR spectroscopy to investigate complexation properties of these systems cause this technique works in the same time scale of supramolecular assemblies. Chapter 1 underlines the main concepts upon which supramolecular chemistry is based, clarifying the nature of supramolecular interactions and the principles of host-guest chemistry. In chapter 2 it is pointed out the use of ESR spectroscopy to investigate the properties of organic non-covalent assemblies in liquid solution by spin labels and spin probes. The chapter 3 deals with the synthesis of a new class of p-electron-deficient tetracationic cyclophane ring, carrying one or two paramagnetic side-arms based on 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidine-N-oxyl (TEMPO) moiety. In the chapter 4, the Huisgen 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition is exploited to synthesize rotaxanes having paramagnetic cyclodextrins as wheels. In the chapter 5, the catalysis of Huisgen’s cycloaddition by CB[6] is exploited to synthesize paramagnetic CB[6]-based [3]-rotaxanes. In the chapter 6 I reported the first preliminary studies of Actinoid series as a new class of templates in catenanes’ synthesis. Being f-block elements, so having the property of expanding the valence state, they constitute promising candidates as chemical templates offering the possibility to create a complex with coordination number beyond 6.

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The proposal in my thesis has been the study of Stereoselective α-alkylation through SN1 type reaction. SN1 type reaction involves a stabilized and reactive carbocation intermediate By taking advantages of stability of particular carbocations, the use of carbocations in selective reactions has been important. In this work has been necessary to know the stability and reactivity of carbocations. And the work of Mayr group has helped to rationalize the behaviour and reactivity between the carbocations and nucleophiles by the use of Mayr’s scale of reactivity. The use of alcohols to performed the stable and reactive carbocations have been the key in my thesis. The direct nucleophilic substitution of alcohols has been a crucial scope in the field of organic synthesis, because offer a wide range of intermediates for the synthesis of natural products and pharmaceutics synthesis. In particular the catalytic nucleophilic direct substitution of alcohols represents a novel methodology for the preparation of a variety of derivatives, and water only as the sub-product in the reaction. The stereochemical control of the transformation C-H bond into stereogenic C-C bond adjacent to carbonyl functionalized has been studied for asymmetric catalysis. And the field of organocatalysis has introduced the use of small organic molecule as catalyst for stereoselective transformations. Merging these two concepts Organocatalysis and Mayr’s scale, my thesis has developed a new approach for the α-alkylation of aldehydes and ketones through SN1 type reaction.

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The surface electrocardiogram (ECG) is an established diagnostic tool for the detection of abnormalities in the electrical activity of the heart. The interest of the ECG, however, extends beyond the diagnostic purpose. In recent years, studies in cognitive psychophysiology have related heart rate variability (HRV) to memory performance and mental workload. The aim of this thesis was to analyze the variability of surface ECG derived rhythms, at two different time scales: the discrete-event time scale, typical of beat-related features (Objective I), and the “continuous” time scale of separated sources in the ECG (Objective II), in selected scenarios relevant to psychophysiological and clinical research, respectively. Objective I) Joint time-frequency and non-linear analysis of HRV was carried out, with the goal of assessing psychophysiological workload (PPW) in response to working memory engaging tasks. Results from fourteen healthy young subjects suggest the potential use of the proposed indices in discriminating PPW levels in response to varying memory-search task difficulty. Objective II) A novel source-cancellation method based on morphology clustering was proposed for the estimation of the atrial wavefront in atrial fibrillation (AF) from body surface potential maps. Strong direct correlation between spectral concentration (SC) of atrial wavefront and temporal variability of the spectral distribution was shown in persistent AF patients, suggesting that with higher SC, shorter observation time is required to collect spectral distribution, from which the fibrillatory rate is estimated. This could be time and cost effective in clinical decision-making. The results held for reduced leads sets, suggesting that a simplified setup could also be considered, further reducing the costs. In designing the methods of this thesis, an online signal processing approach was kept, with the goal of contributing to real-world applicability. An algorithm for automatic assessment of ambulatory ECG quality, and an automatic ECG delineation algorithm were designed and validated.

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In this thesis, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. By using a database containing GPS measures of individual paths (position, velocity and covered space at a spatial scale of 2 Km or a time scale of 30 sec), which includes the 2% of the private vehicles in Italy, we succeed in determining some statistical empirical laws pointing out "universal" characteristics of human mobility. Developing simple stochastic models suggesting possible explanations of the empirical observations, we are able to indicate what are the key quantities and cognitive features that are ruling individuals' mobility. To understand the features of individual dynamics, we have studied different aspects of urban mobility from a physical point of view. We discuss the implications of the Benford's law emerging from the distribution of times elapsed between successive trips. We observe how the daily travel-time budget is related with many aspects of the urban environment, and describe how the daily mobility budget is then spent. We link the scaling properties of individual mobility networks to the inhomogeneous average durations of the activities that are performed, and those of the networks describing people's common use of space with the fractional dimension of the urban territory. We study entropy measures of individual mobility patterns, showing that they carry almost the same information of the related mobility networks, but are also influenced by a hierarchy among the activities performed. We discover that Wardrop's principles are violated as drivers have only incomplete information on traffic state and therefore rely on knowledge on the average travel-times. We propose an assimilation model to solve the intrinsic scattering of GPS data on the street network, permitting the real-time reconstruction of traffic state at a urban scale.

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An increased incidence of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is associated with the emergence of epidemic strains characterised by high genetic diversity. Among the factors that may have a role in CDI there is a family of 29 paralogs, the cell wall proteins (CWPs), which compose the outer layer of the bacterial cell and are likely to be involved in colonisation. Previous studies have shown that 12 of the29 cwp genes are clustered in the same region, named after slpA (cwp1) the slpA locus, whereas the remaining 17 paralogs are distributed throughout the genome. The variability of 14 of these 17 cwp paralogs was determined in 40 C. difficile clinical isolates belonging to six of the currently prevailing PCR ribotypes. Based on sequence conservation, these cwp genes were divided into two groups, one comprising cwp loci having highly conserved sequences in all isolates, and the other 5 loci showing low genetic conservation between isolates of the same PCR ribotype as well as between different PCR ribotypes. Three conserved CWPs, Cwp16, Cwp18 and Cwp25, and two variable ones, Cwp26 and Cwp27, were characterised further by Western blot analysis of total cell extracts or S-layer preparations of the C. difficile clinical isolates. Expression of genetically invariable CWPs is well conserved in all isolates, while genetically variable CWPs are not always expressed at comparable levels even in strains containing identical sequences but belonging to different PCR ribotypes. In addition, we chose to analyse the immune response obtained in a protection experiment, carried out in hamsters, using a protein microarray approach to study the in vivo expression and the immunoreactivity of several surface proteins, including 18 Cwps.

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La Tesi analizza le relazioni tra i processi di sviluppo agricolo e l’uso delle risorse naturali, in particolare di quelle energetiche, a livello internazionale (paesi in via di sviluppo e sviluppati), nazionale (Italia), regionale (Emilia Romagna) e aziendale, con lo scopo di valutare l’eco-efficienza dei processi di sviluppo agricolo, la sua evoluzione nel tempo e le principali dinamiche in relazione anche ai problemi di dipendenza dalle risorse fossili, della sicurezza alimentare, della sostituzione tra superfici agricole dedicate all’alimentazione umana ed animale. Per i due casi studio a livello macroeconomico è stata adottata la metodologia denominata “SUMMA” SUstainability Multi-method, multi-scale Assessment (Ulgiati et al., 2006), che integra una serie di categorie d’impatto dell’analisi del ciclo di vita, LCA, valutazioni costi-benefici e la prospettiva di analisi globale della contabilità emergetica. L’analisi su larga scala è stata ulteriormente arricchita da un caso studio sulla scala locale, di una fattoria produttrice di latte e di energia elettrica rinnovabile (fotovoltaico e biogas). Lo studio condotto mediante LCA e valutazione contingente ha valutato gli effetti ambientali, economici e sociali di scenari di riduzione della dipendenza dalle fonti fossili. I casi studio a livello macroeconomico dimostrano che, nonostante le politiche di supporto all’aumento di efficienza e a forme di produzione “verdi”, l’agricoltura a livello globale continua ad evolvere con un aumento della sua dipendenza dalle fonti energetiche fossili. I primi effetti delle politiche agricole comunitarie verso una maggiore sostenibilità sembrano tuttavia intravedersi per i Paesi Europei. Nel complesso la energy footprint si mantiene alta poiché la meccanizzazione continua dei processi agricoli deve necessariamente attingere da fonti energetiche sostitutive al lavoro umano. Le terre agricole diminuiscono nei paesi europei analizzati e in Italia aumentando i rischi d’insicurezza alimentare giacché la popolazione nazionale sta invece aumentando.

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Early-Type galaxies (ETGs) are embedded in hot (10^6-10^7 K), X-ray emitting gaseous haloes, produced mainly by stellar winds and heated by Type Ia supernovae explosions, by the thermalization of stellar motions and occasionally by the central super-massive black hole (SMBH). In particular, the thermalization of the stellar motions is due to the interaction between the stellar and the SNIa ejecta and the hot interstellar medium (ISM) already residing in the ETG. A number of different astrophysical phenomena determine the X-ray properties of the hot ISM, such as stellar population formation and evolution, galaxy structure and internal kinematics, Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) presence, and environmental effects. With the aid of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations performed on state-of-the-art galaxy models, in this Thesis we focus on the effects of galaxy shape, stellar kinematics and star formation on the evolution of the X-ray coronae of ETGs. Numerical simulations show that the relative importance of flattening and rotation are functions of the galaxy mass: at low galaxy masses, adding flattening and rotation induces a galactic wind, thus lowering the X-ray luminosity; at high galaxy masses the angular momentum conservation keeps the central regions of rotating galaxies at low density, whereas in non-rotating models a denser and brighter atmosphere is formed. The same dependence from the galaxy mass is present in the effects of star formation (SF): in light galaxies SF contributes to increase the spread in Lx, while at high galaxy masses the halo X-ray properties are marginally sensitive to SF effects. In every case, the star formation rate at the present epoch quite agrees with observations, and the massive, cold gaseous discs are partially or completely consumed by SF on a time-scale of few Gyr, excluding the presence of young stellar discs at the present epoch.

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The object of this work has been the analysis of natural processes controlling the geological evolution of the Montenegro and Northern Albania Continental Margin (MACM) during the Late Quaternary. These include the modern sediment dispersal system and oceanographic regime, the building and shaping of the shelf margin at the scale of 100 kyr and relative to the most recent transition between glacial and interglacial periods. The analysis of the new data shows that the MACM is a shelf-slope system formed by a suite of physiographic elements, including: an inner and an outer continental shelf, separated by two tectonically-controlled morphological highs; a lobated drowned mid-shelf paleodelta, formed during the last sea level fall and low stand; an upper continental slope, affected by gravity-driven instability and a system of extensional faults with surficial displacement, featuring an orientation coherent with the regional tectonics. The stratigraphic study of the MACM shows a clear correspondence between the Late Pleistocene/Holocene mud-wedge and the low reflectivity sectors of the inner shelf. Conversely, most of the outer shelf and part of the continental slope expose deposits from the last sea level low stand, featuring a general sediment starving condition or the presence of a thin postglacial sediments cover. The MACM shows uplift in correspondence of the Kotor and Bar ridges, and subsidence in the outer shelf and upper slope sectors. In fact, seaward of these tectonic ridges, the sparker seismic profile show the presence of four well-defined seismo-stratigraphic sequences, interpreted as forced regression deposits, formed during the last four main glacial phases. In this way, the MACM records the 100 kyr scale sea level fluctuations on its seismo-stratigraphic architecture over the last 350 kyr. Over such time range, through the identification of the paleoshoreline deposits, we estimated an average subsidence rate of about 1.2 mm/yr.