Sorveglianza dell'influenza aviare: studio di un sistema di rilevazione precoce della circolazione virale in popolazioni di volatili selvatici

The emergency of infection by highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) subtype H5N1 has focused the attention of the world scientific community, requiring the prompt provision of effective control systems for early detection of the circulation of low pathogenic influenza H5 viruses (LPAI) in populations of wild birds to prevent outbreaks of highly pathogenic (HPAI) in populations of domestic birds with possible transmission to humans. The project stems from the aim to provide, through a preliminary analysis of data obtained from surveillance in Italy and Europe, a preliminary study about the virus detection rates and the development of mathematical models, an objective assessment of the effectiveness of avian influenza surveillance systems in wild bird populations, and to point out guidelines to support the planning process of the sampling activities. The results obtained from the statistical processing quantify the sampling effort in terms of time and sample size required, and simulating different epidemiological scenarios identify active surveillance as the most suitable for endemic LPAI infection monitoring in wild waterfowl, and passive surveillance as the only really effective tool in early detecting HPAI H5N1 circulation in wild populations. Given the lack of relevant information on H5N1 epidemiology, and the actual finantial and logistic constraints, an approach that makes use of statistical tools to evaluate and predict monitoring activities effectiveness proves to be of primary importance to direct decision-making and make the best use of available resources.

Applicazione di strumenti e metodi per la gestione ambientale di un territorio vasto - Sviluppo di un sistema di gestione ambientale in un ente pubblico secondo lo schema europeo EMAS e analisi di un sistema energetico territoriale

Environmental Management includes many components, among which we can include Environmental Management Systems (EMS), Environmental Reporting and Analysis, Environmental Information Systems and Environmental Communication. In this work two applications are presented: the developement and implementation of an Environmental Management System in local administrations, according to the European scheme "EMAS", and the analysis of a territorial energy system through scenario building and environmental sustainability assessment. Both applications are linked by the same objective, which is the quest for more scientifically sound elements; in fact, both EMS and energy planning are oftec carachterized by localism and poor comparability. Emergy synthesis, proposed by ecologist H.T. Odum and described in his book "Environmental Accounting: Emergy and Environmental Decision Making" (1996) has been chosen and applied as an environmental evaluation tool, in order complete the analysis with an assessment of the "global value" of goods and processes. In particular, eMergy syntesis has been applied in order to improve the evaluation of the significance of environmental aspects in an EMS, and in order to evaluate the environmental performance of three scenarios of future evolution of the energy system. Regarding EMS, in this work an application of an EMS together with the CLEAR methodology for environmental accounting is discussed, in order to improve the identification of the environmental aspects; data regarding environmental aspects and significant ones for 4 local authorities are also presented, together with a preliminary proposal for the integration of the assessment of the significance of environmental aspects with eMergy synthesis. Regarding the analysis of an energy system, in this work the carachterization of the current situation is presented together with the overall energy balance and the evaluation of the emissions of greenhouse gases; moreover, three scenarios of future evolution are described and discussed. The scenarios have been realized with the support of the LEAP software ("Long Term Energy Alternatives Planning System" by SEI - "Stockholm Environment Institute"). Finally, the eMergy synthesis of the current situation and of the three scenarios is shown.

A Web GIS Decision Support System For Coastal Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk associated with storm surge events and long-term sea level rise associated with climate change. This study contributes to the spatially evaluation and mapping of social-economic-environmental vulnerability and risk at sub-national scale through the development of appropriate tools and methods successfully embedded in a Web-GIS Decision Support System. A new set of raster-based models were studied and developed in order to be easily implemented in the Web-GIS framework with the purpose to quickly assess and map flood hazards characteristics, damage and vulnerability in a Multi-criteria approach. The Web-GIS DSS is developed recurring to open source software and programming language and its main peculiarity is to be available and usable by coastal managers and land use planners without requiring high scientific background in hydraulic engineering. The effectiveness of the system in the coastal risk assessment is evaluated trough its application to a real case study.