Essays in Macroecometrics: methodological aspects and empirical applications

In the first chapter, I develop a panel no-cointegration test which extends Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001)'s bounds test to the panel framework by considering the individual regressions in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system. This allows to take into account unobserved common factors that contemporaneously affect all the units of the panel and provides, at the same time, unit-specific test statistics. Moreover, the approach is particularly suited when the number of individuals of the panel is small relatively to the number of time series observations. I develop the algorithm to implement the test and I use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the properties of the test. The small sample properties of the test are remarkable, compared to its single equation counterpart. I illustrate the use of the test through a test of Purchasing Power Parity in a panel of EU15 countries. In the second chapter of my PhD thesis, I verify the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure in the repurchasing agreements (repo) market with a new testing approach. I consider an "inexact" formulation of the EHTS, which models a time-varying component in the risk premia and I treat the interest rates as a non-stationary cointegrated system. The effect of the heteroskedasticity is controlled by means of testing procedures (bootstrap and heteroskedasticity correction) which are robust to variance and covariance shifts over time. I fi#nd that the long-run implications of EHTS are verified. A rolling window analysis clarifies that the EHTS is only rejected in periods of turbulence of #financial markets. The third chapter introduces the Stata command "bootrank" which implements the bootstrap likelihood ratio rank test algorithm developed by Cavaliere et al. (2012). The command is illustrated through an empirical application on the term structure of interest rates in the US.

Bonded structures for enhanced damage tolerant pressurized fuselages

Adhesive bonding provides solutions to realize cost effective and low weight aircraft fuselage structures, in particular where the Damage Tolerance (DT) is the design criterion. Bonded structures that combine Metal Laminates (MLs) and eventually Selective Reinforcements can guarantee slow crack propagation, crack arrest and large damage capability. To optimize the design exploiting the benefit of bonded structures incorporating selective reinforcement requires reliable analysis tools. The effect of bonded doublers / selective reinforcements is very difficult to be predicted numerically or analytically due to the complexity of the underlying mechanisms and failures modes acting. Reliable predictions of crack growth and residual strength can only be based on sound empirical and phenomenological considerations strictly related to the specific structural concept. Large flat stiffened panels that combine MLs and selective reinforcements have been tested with the purpose of investigating solutions applicable to pressurized fuselages. The large test campaign (for a total of 35 stiffened panels) has quantitatively investigated the role of the different metallic skin concepts (monolithic vs. MLs) of the aluminum, titanium and glass-fiber reinforcements, of the stringers material and cross sections and of the geometry and location of doublers / selective reinforcements. Bonded doublers and selective reinforcements confirmed to be outstanding tools to improve the DT properties of structural elements with a minor weight increase. However the choice of proper materials for the skin and the stringers must be not underestimated since they play an important role as well. A fuselage structural concept has been developed to exploit the benefit of a metal laminate design concept in terms of high Fatigue and Damage Tolerance (F&DT) performances. The structure used laminated skin (0.8mm thick), bonded stringers, two different splicing solutions and selective reinforcements (glass prepreg embedded in the laminate) under the circumferential frames. To validate the design concept a curved panel was manufactured and tested under loading conditions representative of a single aisle fuselage: cyclic internal pressurization plus longitudinal loads. The geometry of the panel, design and loading conditions were tailored for the requirements of the upper front fuselage. The curved panel has been fatigue tested for 60 000 cycles before the introduction of artificial damages (cracks in longitudinal and circumferential directions). The crack growth of the artificial damages has been investigated for about 85 000 cycles. At the end a residual strength test has been performed with a “2 bay over broken frame” longitudinal crack. The reparability of this innovative concept has been taken into account during design and demonstrated with the use of an external riveted repair. The F&DT curved panel test has confirmed that a long fatigue life and high damage tolerance can be achieved with a hybrid metal laminate low weight configuration. The superior fatigue life from metal laminates and the high damage tolerance characteristics provided by integrated selective reinforcements are the key concepts that provided the excellent performances. The weight comparison between the innovative bonded concept and a conventional monolithic riveted design solution showed a significant potential weight saving but the weight advantages shall be traded off with the additional costs.

Geomorphological and statistical analysis on Ravenna dune fields changes, based on Terrestrial Laser Technology

Coastal sand dunes represent a richness first of all in terms of defense from the sea storms waves and the saltwater ingression; moreover these morphological elements constitute an unique ecosystem of transition between the sea and the land environment. The research about dune system is a strong part of the coastal sciences, since the last century. Nowadays this branch have assumed even more importance for two reasons: on one side the born of brand new technologies, especially related to the Remote Sensing, have increased the researcher possibilities; on the other side the intense urbanization of these days have strongly limited the dune possibilities of development and fragmented what was remaining from the last century. This is particularly true in the Ravenna area, where the industrialization united to the touristic economy and an intense subsidence, have left only few dune ridges residual still active. In this work three different foredune ridges, along the Ravenna coast, have been studied with Laser Scanner technology. This research didn’t limit to analyze volume or spatial difference, but try also to find new ways and new features to monitor this environment. Moreover the author planned a series of test to validate data from Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS), with the additional aim of finalize a methodology to test 3D survey accuracy. Data acquired by TLS were then applied on one hand to test some brand new applications, such as Digital Shore Line Analysis System (DSAS) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), to prove their efficacy in this field; on the other hand the author used TLS data to find any correlation with meteorological indexes (Forcing Factors), linked to sea and wind (Fryberger's method) applying statistical tools, such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA).