Customer Evolution in Sales Channel Migration

This research has been triggered by an emergent trend in customer behavior: customers have rapidly expanded their channel experiences and preferences beyond traditional channels (such as stores) and they expect the company with which they do business to have a presence on all these channels. This evidence has produced an increasing interest in multichannel customer behavior and it has motivated several researchers to study the customers’ channel choices dynamics in multichannel environment. We study how the consumer decision process for channel choice and response to marketing communications evolves for a cohort of new customers. We assume a newly acquired customer’s decisions are described by a “trial” model, but the customer’s choice process evolves to a “post-trial” model as the customer learns his or her preferences and becomes familiar with the firm’s marketing efforts. The trial and post-trial decision processes are each described by different multinomial logit choice models, and the evolution from the trial to post-trial model is determined by a customer-level geometric distribution that captures the time it takes for the customer to make the transition. We utilize data for a major retailer who sells in three channels – retail store, the Internet, and via catalog. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods that allow for cross-customer heterogeneity. This allows us to have distinct parameters estimates for a trial and an after trial stages and to estimate the quickness of this transit at the individual level. The results show for example that the customer decision process indeed does evolve over time. Customers differ in the duration of the trial period and marketing has a different impact on channel choice in the trial and post-trial stages. Furthermore, we show that some people switch channel decision processes while others don’t and we found that several factors have an impact on the probability to switch decision process. Insights from this study can help managers tailor their marketing communication strategy as customers gain channel choice experience. Managers may also have insights on the timing of the direct marketing communications. They can predict the duration of the trial phase at individual level detecting the customers with a quick, long or even absent trial phase. They can even predict if the customer will change or not his decision process over time, and they can influence the switching process using specific marketing tools

X-Ray studies of the physics of matter around super-massive black-holes in nearby Seyfert galaxies

Seyfert galaxies are the closest active galactic nuclei. As such, we can use them to test the physical properties of the entire class of objects. To investigate their general properties, I took advantage of different methods of data analysis. In particular I used three different samples of objects, that, despite frequent overlaps, have been chosen to best tackle different topics: the heterogeneous BeppoS AX sample was thought to be optimized to test the average hard X-ray (E above 10 keV) properties of nearby Seyfert galaxies; the X-CfA was thought the be optimized to compare the properties of low-luminosity sources to the ones of higher luminosity and, thus, it was also used to test the emission mechanism models; finally, the XMM–Newton sample was extracted from the X-CfA sample so as to ensure a truly unbiased and well defined sample of objects to define the average properties of Seyfert galaxies. Taking advantage of the broad-band coverage of the BeppoS AX MECS and PDS instruments (between ~2-100 keV), I infer the average X-ray spectral propertiesof nearby Seyfert galaxies and in particular the photon index (~1.8), the high-energy cut-off (~290 keV), and the relative amount of cold reflection (~1.0). Moreover the unified scheme for active galactic nuclei was positively tested. The distribution of isotropic indicators used here (photon index, relative amount of reflection, high-energy cut-off and narrow FeK energy centroid) are similar in type I and type II objects while the absorbing column and the iron line equivalent width significantly differ between the two classes of sources with type II objects displaying larger absorbing columns. Taking advantage of the XMM–Newton and X–CfA samples I also deduced from measurements that 30 to 50% of type II Seyfert galaxies are Compton thick. Confirming previous results, the narrow FeK line is consistent, in Seyfert 2 galaxies, with being produced in the same matter responsible for the observed obscuration. These results support the basic picture of the unified model. Moreover, the presence of a X-ray Baldwin effect in type I sources has been measured using for the first time the 20-100 keV luminosity (EW proportional to L(20-100)^(−0.22±0.05)). This finding suggests that the torus covering factor may be a function of source luminosity, thereby suggesting a refinement of the baseline version of the unifed model itself. Using the BeppoSAX sample, it has been also recorded a possible correlation between the photon index and the amount of cold reflection in both type I and II sources. At a first glance this confirms the thermal Comptonization as the most likely origin of the high energy emission for the active galactic nuclei. This relation, in fact, naturally emerges supposing that the accretion disk penetrates, depending to the accretion rate, the central corona at different depths (Merloni et al. 2006): the higher accreting systems hosting disks down to the last stable orbit while the lower accreting systems hosting truncated disks. On the contrary, the study of the well defined X–C f A sample of Seyfert galaxies has proved that the intrinsic X-ray luminosity of nearby Seyfert galaxies can span values between 10^(38−43) erg s^−1, i.e. covering a huge range of accretion rates. The less efficient systems have been supposed to host ADAF systems without accretion disk. However, the study of the X–CfA sample has also proved the existence of correlations between optical emission lines and X-ray luminosity in the entire range of L_(X) covered by the sample. These relations are similar to the ones obtained if high-L objects are considered. Thus the emission mechanism must be similar in luminous and weak systems. A possible scenario to reconcile these somehow opposite indications is assuming that the ADAF and the two phase mechanism co-exist with different relative importance moving from low-to-high accretion systems (as suggested by the Gamma vs. R relation). The present data require that no abrupt transition between the two regimes is present. As mentioned above, the possible presence of an accretion disk has been tested using samples of nearby Seyfert galaxies. Here, to deeply investigate the flow patterns close to super-massive black-holes, three case study objects for which enough counts statistics is available have been analysed using deep X-ray observations taken with XMM–Newton. The obtained results have shown that the accretion flow can significantly differ between the objects when it is analyzed with the appropriate detail. For instance the accretion disk is well established down to the last stable orbit in a Kerr system for IRAS 13197-1627 where strong light bending effect have been measured. The accretion disk seems to be formed spiraling in the inner ~10-30 gravitational radii in NGC 3783 where time dependent and recursive modulation have been measured both in the continuum emission and in the broad emission line component. Finally, the accretion disk seems to be only weakly detectable in rk 509, with its weak broad emission line component. Finally, blueshifted resonant absorption lines have been detected in all three objects. This seems to demonstrate that, around super-massive black-holes, there is matter which is not confined in the accretion disk and moves along the line of sight with velocities as large as v~0.01-0.4c (whre c is the speed of light). Wether this matter forms winds or blobs is still matter of debate together with the assessment of the real statistical significance of the measured absorption lines. Nonetheless, if confirmed, these phenomena are of outstanding interest because they offer new potential probes for the dynamics of the innermost regions of accretion flows, to tackle the formation of ejecta/jets and to place constraints on the rate of kinetic energy injected by AGNs into the ISM and IGM. Future high energy missions (such as the planned Simbol-X and IXO) will likely allow an exciting step forward in our understanding of the flow dynamics around black holes and the formation of the highest velocity outflows.

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Performance evaluation of low environmental impact asphalt concretes using the mechanistic empirical design method based on laboratory fatigue and permanent deformation models

The "sustainability" concept relates to the prolonging of human economic systems with as little detrimental impact on ecological systems as possible. Construction that exhibits good environmental stewardship and practices that conserve resources in a manner that allow growth and development to be sustained for the long-term without degrading the environment are indispensable in a developed society. Past, current and future advancements in asphalt as an environmentally sustainable paving material are especially important because the quantities of asphalt used annually in Europe as well as in the U.S. are large. The asphalt industry is still developing technological improvements that will reduce the environmental impact without affecting the final mechanical performance. Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is a type of asphalt mix requiring lower production temperatures compared to hot mix asphalt (HMA), while aiming to maintain the desired post construction properties of traditional HMA. Lowering the production temperature reduce the fuel usage and the production of emissions therefore and that improve conditions for workers and supports the sustainable development. Even the crumb-rubber modifier (CRM), with shredded automobile tires and used in the United States since the mid 1980s, has proven to be an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional asphalt pavement. Furthermore, the use of waste tires is not only relevant in an environmental aspect but also for the engineering properties of asphalt [Pennisi E., 1992]. This research project is aimed to demonstrate the dual value of these Asphalt Mixes in regards to the environmental and mechanical performance and to suggest a low environmental impact design procedure. In fact, the use of eco-friendly materials is the first phase towards an eco-compatible design but it cannot be the only step. The eco-compatible approach should be extended also to the design method and material characterization because only with these phases is it possible to exploit the maximum potential properties of the used materials. Appropriate asphalt concrete characterization is essential and vital for realistic performance prediction of asphalt concrete pavements. Volumetric (Mix design) and mechanical (Permanent deformation and Fatigue performance) properties are important factors to consider. Moreover, an advanced and efficient design method is necessary in order to correctly use the material. A design method such as a Mechanistic-Empirical approach, consisting of a structural model capable of predicting the state of stresses and strains within the pavement structure under the different traffic and environmental conditions, was the application of choice. In particular this study focus on the CalME and its Incremental-Recursive (I-R) procedure, based on damage models for fatigue and permanent shear strain related to the surface cracking and to the rutting respectively. It works in increments of time and, using the output from one increment, recursively, as input to the next increment, predicts the pavement conditions in terms of layer moduli, fatigue cracking, rutting and roughness. This software procedure was adopted in order to verify the mechanical properties of the study mixes and the reciprocal relationship between surface layer and pavement structure in terms of fatigue and permanent deformation with defined traffic and environmental conditions. The asphalt mixes studied were used in a pavement structure as surface layer of 60 mm thickness. The performance of the pavement was compared to the performance of the same pavement structure where different kinds of asphalt concrete were used as surface layer. In comparison to a conventional asphalt concrete, three eco-friendly materials, two warm mix asphalt and a rubberized asphalt concrete, were analyzed. The First Two Chapters summarize the necessary steps aimed to satisfy the sustainable pavement design procedure. In Chapter I the problem of asphalt pavement eco-compatible design was introduced. The low environmental impact materials such as the Warm Mix Asphalt and the Rubberized Asphalt Concrete were described in detail. In addition the value of a rational asphalt pavement design method was discussed. Chapter II underlines the importance of a deep laboratory characterization based on appropriate materials selection and performance evaluation. In Chapter III, CalME is introduced trough a specific explanation of the different equipped design approaches and specifically explaining the I-R procedure. In Chapter IV, the experimental program is presented with a explanation of test laboratory devices adopted. The Fatigue and Rutting performances of the study mixes are shown respectively in Chapter V and VI. Through these laboratory test data the CalME I-R models parameters for Master Curve, fatigue damage and permanent shear strain were evaluated. Lastly, in Chapter VII, the results of the asphalt pavement structures simulations with different surface layers were reported. For each pavement structure, the total surface cracking, the total rutting, the fatigue damage and the rutting depth in each bound layer were analyzed.

On-line adaptive visual tracking

Visual tracking is the problem of estimating some variables related to a target given a video sequence depicting the target. Visual tracking is key to the automation of many tasks, such as visual surveillance, robot or vehicle autonomous navigation, automatic video indexing in multimedia databases. Despite many years of research, long term tracking in real world scenarios for generic targets is still unaccomplished. The main contribution of this thesis is the definition of effective algorithms that can foster a general solution to visual tracking by letting the tracker adapt to mutating working conditions. In particular, we propose to adapt two crucial components of visual trackers: the transition model and the appearance model. The less general but widespread case of tracking from a static camera is also considered and a novel change detection algorithm robust to sudden illumination changes is proposed. Based on this, a principled adaptive framework to model the interaction between Bayesian change detection and recursive Bayesian trackers is introduced. Finally, the problem of automatic tracker initialization is considered. In particular, a novel solution for categorization of 3D data is presented. The novel category recognition algorithm is based on a novel 3D descriptors that is shown to achieve state of the art performances in several applications of surface matching.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

Patterns of regional differentiation in post-Soviet Russia

This doctoral thesis aims at contributing to the literature on transition economies focusing on the Russian Federations and in particular on regional income convergence and fertility patterns. The first two chapter deal with the issue of income convergence across regions. Chapter 1 provides an historical-institutional analysis of the period between the late years of the Soviet Union and the last decade of economic growth and a presentation of the sample with a description of gross regional product composition, agrarian or industrial vocation, labor. Chapter 2 contributes to the literature on exploratory spatial data analysis with a application to a panel of 77 regions in the period 1994-2008. It provides an analysis of spatial patterns and it extends the theoretical framework of growth regressions controlling for spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Chapter 3 analyses the national demographic patterns since 1960 and provides a review of the policies on maternity leave and family benefits. Data sources are the Statistical Yearbooks of USSR, the Statistical Yearbooks of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and the Demographic Yearbooks of Russia. Chapter 4 analyses the demographic patterns in light of the theoretical framework of the Becker model, the Second Demographic Transition and an economic-crisis argument. With national data from 1960, the theoretically issue of the pro or countercyclical relation between income and fertility is graphically analyzed and discussed, together with female employment and education. With regional data after 1994 different panel data models are tested. Individual level data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey are employed using the logit model. Chapter 5 employs data from the Generations and Gender Survey by UNECE to focus on postponement and second births intentions. Postponement is studied through cohort analysis of mean maternal age at first birth, while the methodology used for second birth intentions is the ordered logit model.

«Präzise doch ungenau». Tradurre il saggio. Un approccio olistico al saggio poetico di Durs Grünbein

Il saggio, genere di confine (Grenzgänger-Textsorte) per eccellenza, la cui indefinibilità è topos, si profila tuttora come terra incognita nell’àmbito delle scienze della traduzione. La presente ricerca mira a enucleare un modello traduttologico olistico per la traduzione del saggio. In feconda alternativa alla dicotomia approccio ermeneutico-letterario vs. approccio linguistico, la prospettiva teorico-metodologica del lavoro integra linee di ricerca filologico-letterarie e linguistico-testuali. Tale sguardo multiprospettico, l’unico in grado di dar conto della complessità del genere, permette di collocare operativamente il saggio e le sue varianti testuali principali (Textsortenvarianten), dal saggio specialistico (fachlicher Essay) al saggio poetico (poetischer Essay) sul continuum delle forme testuali comprese entro le dimensioni (scientifica, pragmatica, estetica) del Denkhandeln. Dalla produttiva intersezione tra la riflessione dell’Essayforschung classica e contemporanea e le più recenti indagini linguistico-testuali sulle forme del saggismo scientifico, si perviene alla formulazione di una definitio per proprietates del saggio. Segue lo sviluppo di un modello traduttologico olistico, che tesaurizza il proprio paradigma antropologico, la riflessione filosofico-ermeneutica e le acquisizioni della linguistica testuale, articolandosi attraverso le fasi ricorsive e interagenti di ricezione olistica, analisi poetico-ermeneutica e retorico-stilistica, progettazione linguistico-cognitiva, formulazione e revisione. L’approccio olistico così delinatosi viene quindi vagliato nella sua proficuità in sede applicativa. Funge da banco di prova un vero e proprio “caso limite” per complessità e qualità letteraria, ovvero il «poetischer Essay» del poeta, saggista e traduttore Durs Grünbein, una delle voci più acclamate nel panorama contemporaneo. La sezione pratica presenta infine l’inedita traduzione italiana dei saggi grünbeiniani Den Körper zerbrechen e Die Bars von Atlantis.

When the Practice of Theorizing Meets the Theorizing of Practice. Social Knowledge Making in Organization Science Academia and Managerial Communities

The aim of the present work is to contribute to a better understanding of the relation between organization theory and management practice. It is organized as a collection of two papers, a theoretical and conceptual contribution and an ethnographic study. The first paper is concerned with systematizing different literatures inside and outside the field of organization studies that deal with the theory-practice relation. After identifying a series of positions to the theory-practice debate and unfolding some of their implicit assumptions and limitations, a new position called entwinement is developed in order to overcome status quo through reconciliation and integration. Accordingly, the paper proposes to reconceptualize theory and practice as a circular iterative process of action and cognition, science and common-sense enacted in the real world both by organization scholars and practitioners according to purposes at hand. The second paper is the ethnographic study of an encounter between two groups of expert academics and practitioners occasioned by a one-year executive business master in an international business school. The research articulates a process view of the knowledge exchange between management academics and practitioners in particular and between individuals belonging to different communities of practice, in general, and emphasizes its dynamic, relational and transformative mechanisms. Findings show that when they are given the chance to interact, academics and practitioners set up local provisional relations that enable them to act as change intermediaries vis-a-vis each other’s worlds, without tying themselves irremediably to each other and to the scenarios they conjointly projected during the master’s experience. Finally, the study shows that provisional relations were accompanied by a recursive shift in knowledge modes. While interacting, academics passed from theory to practical theorizing, practitioners passed from an involved practical mode to a reflexive and quasi-theoretical one, and then, as exchanges proceeded, the other way around.

Analisi delle preferenze per le diverse categorie di pomodoro trasformato nel food service

Il pomodoro è una delle colture principali del panorama agro-alimentare italiano e rappresenta un ingrediente base della tradizione culinaria nazionale. Il pomodoro lavorato dall’industria conserviera può essere trasformato in diverse tipologie merceologiche, che si differenziano in base alla tecniche di lavorazione impiegate ed alle caratteristiche del prodotto finito. la percentuale di spesa totale destinata all’acquisto di cibo fuori casa è in aumento a livello globale e l’interesse dell’industria alimentare nei confronti di questo canale di vendita è quindi crescente. Mentre sono numerose le indagine in letteratura che studiano i processi di acquisto dei consumatori finali, non ci sono evidenze di studi simili condotti sugli operatori del Food Service. Obiettivo principale della ricerca è quello di valutare le preferenze dei responsabili acquisti del settore Food Service per diverse tipologie di pomodoro trasformato, in relazione ad una gamma di attributi rilevanti del prodotto e di caratteristiche del cliente. La raccolta dei dati è avvenuta attraverso un esperimento di scelta ipotetico realizzato in Italia e alcuni mercati esteri. Dai risultati ottenuti dall’indagine emerge che i Pelati sono la categoria di pomodoro trasformato preferita dai responsabili degli acquisti del settore Food Service intervistati, con il 35% delle preferenze dichiarate nell'insieme dei contesti di scelta proposti, seguita dalla Polpa (25%), dalla Passata (20%) e dal Concentrato (15%). Dai risultati ottenuti dalla stima del modello econometrico Logit a parametri randomizzati è emerso che alcuni attributi qualitativi di fiducia (credence), spesso impiegati nelle strategie di differenziazione e posizionamento da parte dell’industria alimentare nel mercato Retail, possono rivestire un ruolo importante anche nell’influenzare le preferenze degli operatori del Food Service. Questo potrebbe quindi essere un interessante filone di ricerca da sviluppare nel futuro, possibilmente con l'impiego congiunto di metodologie di analisi basate su esperimenti di scelta ipotetici e non ipotetici.

Il ruolo della metafora nella comunicazione della fisica contemporanea

Il presente lavoro si rivolge all’analisi del ruolo delle forme metaforiche nella divulgazione della fisica contemporanea. Il focus è sugli aspetti cognitivi: come possiamo spiegare concetti fisici formalmente complessi ad un audience di non-esperti senza ‘snaturarne’ i significati disciplinari (comunicazione di ‘buona fisica’)? L’attenzione è sulla natura stessa della spiegazione e il problema riguarda la valutazione dell’efficacia della spiegazione scientifica a non-professionisti. Per affrontare tale questione, ci siamo orientati alla ricerca di strumenti formali che potessero supportarci nell’analisi linguistica dei testi. La nostra attenzione si è rivolta al possibile ruolo svolto dalle forme metaforiche nella costruzione di significati disciplinarmente validi. Si fa in particolare riferimento al ruolo svolto dalla metafora nella comprensione di nuovi significati a partire da quelli noti, aspetto fondamentale nel caso dei fenomeni di fisica contemporanea che sono lontani dalla sfera percettiva ordinaria. In particolare, è apparsa particolarmente promettente come strumento di analisi la prospettiva della teoria della metafora concettuale. Abbiamo allora affrontato il problema di ricerca analizzando diverse forme metaforiche di particolare rilievo prese da testi di divulgazione di fisica contemporanea. Nella tesi viene in particolare discussa l’analisi di un case-study dal punto di vista della metafora concettuale: una analogia di Schrödinger per la particella elementare. I risultati dell’analisi suggeriscono che la metafora concettuale possa rappresentare uno strumento promettente sia per la valutazione della qualità delle forme analogiche e metaforiche utilizzate nella spiegazione di argomenti di fisica contemporanea che per la creazione di nuove e più efficaci metafore. Inoltre questa prospettiva di analisi sembra fornirci uno strumento per caratterizzare il concetto stesso di ‘buona fisica’. Riteniamo infine che possano emergere altri risultati di ricerca interessanti approfondendo l’approccio interdisciplinare tra la linguistica e la fisica.

Maternal Smoking Impact on the Delivery Cost: a population-based study in the Emilia-Romagna region

This doctoral thesis is devoted to the study of the causal effects of the maternal smoking on the delivery cost. The interest of economic consequences of smoking in pregnancy have been studied fairly extensively in the USA, and very little is known in European context. To identify the causal relation between different maternal smoking status and the delivery cost in the Emilia-Romagna region two distinct methods were used. The first - geometric multidimensional - is mainly based on the multivariate approach and involves computing and testing the global imbalance, classifying cases in order to generate well-matched comparison groups, and then computing treatment effects. The second - structural modelling - refers to a general methodological account of model-building and model-testing. The main idea of this approach is to decompose the global mechanism into sub-mechanisms though a recursive decomposition of a multivariate distribution.

Simbolismi etno-antropologici nell'opera di Elsa Morante

La ricerca sviluppa le più recenti proposte teoriche dell'antropologia interpretativa, applicandole alla teoria della letteratura. Si concentra sull'ipotesto antropologico attivo nell'opera di Elsa Morante, con particolare riferimento alla produzione successiva agli anni Sessanta (Il mondo salvato dai ragazzini, 1968; La Storia, 1974; Aracoeli, 1982), in cui si verifica la concentrazione del materiale etno-antropologico di derivazione demartiniana. La tesi si propone di sondare la prolificità del rapporto intertestuale Morante-De Martino, soprattutto mediante la ricorrenza di alcuni luoghi significanti che accomunano la ricerca poetica e quella scientifica degli autori, uniti da una fondamentale rielaborazione del concetto di "umanesimo". Centrale, a questo proposito, diviene la nozione di "crisi" della persona, direttamente collegata al vissuto da "fine del mondo" e alla percezione apocalittica post-atomica. Alla crisi del soggetto contemporaneo si guarda nei termini di una risoluzione culturale, che chiama direttamente in causa il rapporto tra letteratura e ritualità. Secondo la prospettiva sociologica durkheimiana, si indagano i momenti della piacularità e della festa, ricorsivi nella scrittura morantiana, come fondanti il discorso (la narrazione mitografica) della comunità. Di qui, la riflessione si attesta sulle strategie della comunicazione finzionale in ambito etno-antropologico, con attenzione all'autorialità dello stesso antropologo sul campo. Non mancano raffronti con le esperienze letterarie più significative nell'orizzonte culturale delineato: in particolar modo, si tiene in considerazione il fondamentale rapporto Morante-Pasolini. 

Probabilistic Recursion Theory and Implicit Computational Complexity

In this thesis we provide a characterization of probabilistic computation in itself, from a recursion-theoretical perspective, without reducing it to deterministic computation. More specifically, we show that probabilistic computable functions, i.e., those functions which are computed by Probabilistic Turing Machines (PTM), can be characterized by a natural generalization of Kleene's partial recursive functions which includes, among initial functions, one that returns identity or successor with probability 1/2. We then prove the equi-expressivity of the obtained algebra and the class of functions computed by PTMs. In the the second part of the thesis we investigate the relations existing between our recursion-theoretical framework and sub-recursive classes, in the spirit of Implicit Computational Complexity. More precisely, endowing predicative recurrence with a random base function is proved to lead to a characterization of polynomial-time computable probabilistic functions.