Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Motion control and real-time systems: an approach to trajectory rebuilding in non-deterministic networks

Motion control is a sub-field of automation, in which the position and/or velocity of machines are controlled using some type of device. In motion control the position, velocity, force, pressure, etc., profiles are designed in such a way that the different mechanical parts work as an harmonious whole in which a perfect synchronization must be achieved. The real-time exchange of information in the distributed system that is nowadays an industrial plant plays an important role in order to achieve always better performance, better effectiveness and better safety. The network for connecting field devices such as sensors, actuators, field controllers such as PLCs, regulators, drive controller etc., and man-machine interfaces is commonly called fieldbus. Since the motion transmission is now task of the communication system, and not more of kinematic chains as in the past, the communication protocol must assure that the desired profiles, and their properties, are correctly transmitted to the axes then reproduced or else the synchronization among the different parts is lost with all the resulting consequences. In this thesis, the problem of trajectory reconstruction in the case of an event-triggered communication system is faced. The most important feature that a real-time communication system must have is the preservation of the following temporal and spatial properties: absolute temporal consistency, relative temporal consistency, spatial consistency. Starting from the basic system composed by one master and one slave and passing through systems made up by many slaves and one master or many masters and one slave, the problems in the profile reconstruction and temporal properties preservation, and subsequently the synchronization of different profiles in network adopting an event-triggered communication system, have been shown. These networks are characterized by the fact that a common knowledge of the global time is not available. Therefore they are non-deterministic networks. Each topology is analyzed and the proposed solution based on phase-locked loops adopted for the basic master-slave case has been improved to face with the other configurations.

In situ real-time investigation of Organic Ultra-Thin-Film transistors: growth, electrical properties and biosensing applications

Organic electronics has grown enormously during the last decades driven by the encouraging results and the potentiality of these materials for allowing innovative applications, such as flexible-large-area displays, low-cost printable circuits, plastic solar cells and lab-on-a-chip devices. Moreover, their possible field of applications reaches from medicine, biotechnology, process control and environmental monitoring to defense and security requirements. However, a large number of questions regarding the mechanism of device operation remain unanswered. Along the most significant is the charge carrier transport in organic semiconductors, which is not yet well understood. Other example is the correlation between the morphology and the electrical response. Even if it is recognized that growth mode plays a crucial role into the performance of devices, it has not been exhaustively investigated. The main goal of this thesis was the finding of a correlation between growth modes, electrical properties and morphology in organic thin-film transistors (OTFTs). In order to study the thickness dependence of electrical performance in organic ultra-thin-film transistors, we have designed and developed a home-built experimental setup for performing real-time electrical monitoring and post-growth in situ electrical characterization techniques. We have grown pentacene TFTs under high vacuum conditions, varying systematically the deposition rate at a fixed room temperature. The drain source current IDS and the gate source current IGS were monitored in real-time; while a complete post-growth in situ electrical characterization was carried out. At the end, an ex situ morphological investigation was performed by using the atomic force microscope (AFM). In this work, we present the correlation for pentacene TFTs between growth conditions, Debye length and morphology (through the correlation length parameter). We have demonstrated that there is a layered charge carriers distribution, which is strongly dependent of the growth mode (i.e. rate deposition for a fixed temperature), leading to a variation of the conduction channel from 2 to 7 monolayers (MLs). We conciliate earlier reported results that were apparently contradictory. Our results made evident the necessity of reconsidering the concept of Debye length in a layered low-dimensional device. Additionally, we introduce by the first time a breakthrough technique. This technique makes evident the percolation of the first MLs on pentacene TFTs by monitoring the IGS in real-time, correlating morphological phenomena with the device electrical response. The present thesis is organized in the following five chapters. Chapter 1 makes an introduction to the organic electronics, illustrating the operation principle of TFTs. Chapter 2 presents the organic growth from theoretical and experimental points of view. The second part of this chapter presents the electrical characterization of OTFTs and the typical performance of pentacene devices is shown. In addition, we introduce a correcting technique for the reconstruction of measurements hampered by leakage current. In chapter 3, we describe in details the design and operation of our innovative home-built experimental setup for performing real-time and in situ electrical measurements. Some preliminary results and the breakthrough technique for correlating morphological and electrical changes are presented. Chapter 4 meets the most important results obtained in real-time and in situ conditions, which correlate growth conditions, electrical properties and morphology of pentacene TFTs. In chapter 5 we describe applicative experiments where the electrical performance of pentacene TFTs has been investigated in ambient conditions, in contact to water or aqueous solutions and, finally, in the detection of DNA concentration as label-free sensor, within the biosensing framework.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

In-situ and real time scanning probe microscopy of organic ultra thin films

In recent decades, Organic Thin Film Transistors (OTFTs) have attracted lots of interest due to their low cost, large area and flexible properties which have brought them to be considered the building blocks of the future organic electronics. Experimentally, devices based on the same organic material deposited in different ways, i.e. by varying the deposition rate of the molecules, show different electrical performance. As predicted theoretically, this is due to the speed and rate by which charge carriers can be transported by hopping in organic thin films, transport that depends on the molecular arrangement of the molecules. This strongly suggests a correlation between the morphology of the organic semiconductor and the performance of the OTFT and hence motivated us to carry out an in-situ real time SPM study of organic semiconductor growth as an almost unprecedent experiment with the aim to fully describe the morphological evolution of the ultra-thin film and find the relevant morphological parameters affecting the OTFT electrical response. For the case of 6T on silicon oxide, we have shown that the growth mechanism is 2D+3D, with a roughening transition at the third layer and a rapid roughening. Relevant morphological parameters have been extracted by the AFM images. We also developed an original mathematical model to estimate theoretically and more accurately than before, the capacitance of an EFM tip in front of a metallic substrate. Finally, we obtained Ultra High Vacuum (UHV) AFM images of 6T at lying molecules layer both on silicon oxide and on top of 6T islands. Moreover, we performed ex-situ AFM imaging on a bilayer film composed of pentacene (a p-type semiconductor) and C60 (an n-type semiconductor).