Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

The APSEL4D Monolithic Active Pixel Sensor and its Usage in a Single Electron Interference Experiment

We have realized a Data Acquisition chain for the use and characterization of APSEL4D, a 32 x 128 Monolithic Active Pixel Sensor, developed as a prototype for frontier experiments in high energy particle physics. In particular a transition board was realized for the conversion between the chip and the FPGA voltage levels and for the signal quality enhancing. A Xilinx Spartan-3 FPGA was used for real time data processing, for the chip control and the communication with a Personal Computer through a 2.0 USB port. For this purpose a firmware code, developed in VHDL language, was written. Finally a Graphical User Interface for the online system monitoring, hit display and chip control, based on windows and widgets, was realized developing a C++ code and using Qt and Qwt dedicated libraries. APSEL4D and the full acquisition chain were characterized for the first time with the electron beam of the transmission electron microscope and with 55Fe and 90Sr radioactive sources. In addition, a beam test was performed at the T9 station of the CERN PS, where hadrons of momentum of 12 GeV/c are available. The very high time resolution of APSEL4D (up to 2.5 Mfps, but used at 6 kfps) was fundamental in realizing a single electron Young experiment using nanometric double slits obtained by a FIB technique. On high statistical samples, it was possible to observe the interference and diffractions of single isolated electrons traveling inside a transmission electron microscope. For the first time, the information on the distribution of the arrival time of the single electrons has been extracted.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.