Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

GNSS interference management techniques against malicious attacks

This thesis collects the outcomes of a Ph.D. course in Telecommunications Engineering and it is focused on the study and design of possible techniques able to counteract interference signal in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) systems. The subject is the jamming threat in navigation systems, that has become a very increasingly important topic in recent years, due to the wide diffusion of GNSS-based civil applications. Detection and mitigation techniques are developed in order to fight out jamming signals, tested in different scenarios and including sophisticated signals. The thesis is organized in two main parts, which deal with management of GNSS intentional counterfeit signals. The first part deals with the interference management, focusing on the intentional interfering signal. In particular, a technique for the detection and localization of the interfering signal level in the GNSS bands in frequency domain has been proposed. In addition, an effective mitigation technique which exploits the periodic characteristics of the common jamming signals reducing interfering effects at the receiver side has been introduced. Moreover, this technique has been also tested in a different and more complicated scenario resulting still effective in mitigation and cancellation of the interfering signal, without high complexity. The second part still deals with the problem of interference management, but regarding with more sophisticated signal. The attention is focused on the detection of spoofing signal, which is the most complex among the jamming signal types. Due to this highly difficulty in detect and mitigate this kind of signal, spoofing threat is considered the most dangerous. In this work, a possible techniques able to detect this sophisticated signal has been proposed, observing and exploiting jointly the outputs of several operational block measurements of the GNSS receiver operating chain.

New functional and biomechanical assessments for the improvement of the surgical navigation systems for joint replacement in the human lower limb

In case of severe osteoarthritis at the knee causing pain, deformity, and loss of stability and mobility, the clinicians consider that the substitution of these surfaces by means of joint prostheses. The objectives to be pursued by this surgery are: complete pain elimination, restoration of the normal physiological mobility and joint stability, correction of all deformities and, thus, of limping. The knee surgical navigation systems have bee developed in computer-aided surgery in order to improve the surgical final outcome in total knee arthroplasty. These systems provide the surgeon with quantitative and real-time information about each surgical action, like bone cut executions and prosthesis component alignment, by mean of tracking tools rigidly fixed onto the femur and the tibia. Nevertheless, there is still a margin of error due to the incorrect surgical procedures and to the still limited number of kinematic information provided by the current systems. Particularly, patello-femoral joint kinematics is not considered in knee surgical navigation. It is also unclear and, thus, a source of misunderstanding, what the most appropriate methodology is to study the patellar motion. In addition, also the knee ligamentous apparatus is superficially considered in navigated total knee arthroplasty, without taking into account how their physiological behavior is altered by this surgery. The aim of the present research work was to provide new functional and biomechanical assessments for the improvement of the surgical navigation systems for joint replacement in the human lower limb. This was mainly realized by means of the identification and development of new techniques that allow a thorough comprehension of the functioning of the knee joint, with particular attention to the patello-femoral joint and to the main knee soft tissues. A knee surgical navigation system with active markers was used in all research activities presented in this research work. Particularly, preliminary test were performed in order to assess the system accuracy and the robustness of a number of navigation procedures. Four studies were performed in-vivo on patients requiring total knee arthroplasty and randomly implanted by means of traditional and navigated procedures in order to check for the real efficacy of the latter with respect to the former. In order to cope with assessment of patello-femoral joint kinematics in the intact and replaced knees, twenty in-vitro tests were performed by using a prototypal tracking tool also for the patella. In addition to standard anatomical and articular recommendations, original proposals for defining the patellar anatomical-based reference frame and for studying the patello-femoral joint kinematics were reported and used in these tests. These definitions were applied to two further in-vitro tests in which, for the first time, also the implant of patellar component insert was fully navigated. In addition, an original technique to analyze the main knee soft tissues by means of anatomical-based fiber mappings was also reported and used in the same tests. The preliminary instrumental tests revealed a system accuracy within the millimeter and a good inter- and intra-observer repeatability in defining all anatomical reference frames. In in-vivo studies, the general alignments of femoral and tibial prosthesis components and of the lower limb mechanical axis, as measured on radiographs, was more satisfactory, i.e. within ±3°, in those patient in which total knee arthroplasty was performed by navigated procedures. As for in-vitro tests, consistent patello-femoral joint kinematic patterns were observed over specimens throughout the knee flexion arc. Generally, the physiological intact knee patellar motion was not restored after the implant. This restoration was successfully achieved in the two further tests where all component implants, included the patellar insert, were fully navigated, i.e. by means of intra-operative assessment of also patellar component positioning and general tibio-femoral and patello-femoral joint assessment. The tests for assessing the behavior of the main knee ligaments revealed the complexity of the latter and the different functional roles played by the several sub-bundles compounding each ligament. Also in this case, total knee arthroplasty altered the physiological behavior of these knee soft tissues. These results reveal in-vitro the relevance and the feasibility of the applications of new techniques for accurate knee soft tissues monitoring, patellar tracking assessment and navigated patellar resurfacing intra-operatively in the contest of the most modern operative techniques. This present research work gives a contribution to the much controversial knowledge on the normal and replaced of knee kinematics by testing the reported new methodologies. The consistence of these results provides fundamental information for the comprehension and improvements of knee orthopedic treatments. In the future, the reported new techniques can be safely applied in-vivo and also adopted in other joint replacements.

Simulation Guided Navigation in cranio-maxillo-facial surgery: a new approach to improve intraoperative three-dimensional accuracy and reproducibility during surgery.

The aim of this PhD thesis " Simulation Guided Navigation in cranio- maxillo- facial surgery : a new approach to Improve intraoperative three-dimensional accuracy and reproducibility during surgery ." was at the center of its attention the various applications of a method introduced by our School in 2010 and has as its theme the increase of interest of reproducibility of surgical programs through methods that in whole or in part are using intraoperative navigation. It was introduced in Orthognathic Surgery Validation a new method for the interventions carried out according to the method Simulation Guided Navigation in facial deformities ; was then analyzed the method of three-dimensional control of the osteotomies through the use of templates and cutting of plates using the method precontoured CAD -CAM and laser sintering . It was finally proceeded to introduce the method of piezonavigated surgery in the various branches of maxillofacial surgery . These studies have been subjected to validation processes and the results are presented .