Tecniche MonteCarlo per l'analisi di sistemi a rete

The assessment of the RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) performances of system generally includes the evaluations of the “Importance” of its components and/or of the basic parameters of the model through the use of the Importance Measures. The analytical equations proposed in this study allow the estimation of the first order Differential Importance Measure on the basis of the Birnbaum measures of components, under the hypothesis of uniform percentage changes of parameters. The aging phenomena are introduced into the model by assuming exponential-linear or Weibull distributions for the failure probabilities. An algorithm based on a combination of MonteCarlo simulation and Cellular Automata is applied in order to evaluate the performance of a networked system, made up of source nodes, user nodes and directed edges subjected to failure and repair. Importance Sampling techniques are used for the estimation of the first and total order Differential Importance Measures through only one simulation of the system “operational life”. All the output variables are computed contemporaneously on the basis of the same sequence of the involved components, event types (failure or repair) and transition times. The failure/repair probabilities are forced to be the same for all components; the transition times are sampled from the unbiased probability distributions or it can be also forced, for instance, by assuring the occurrence of at least a failure within the system operational life. The algorithm allows considering different types of maintenance actions: corrective maintenance that can be performed either immediately upon the component failure or upon finding that the component has failed for hidden failures that are not detected until an inspection; and preventive maintenance, that can be performed upon a fixed interval. It is possible to use a restoration factor to determine the age of the component after a repair or any other maintenance action.

The role of the West African Monsoon in the tropical to mid-latitudes climate

The interaction between atmosphere–land–ocean–biosphere systems plays a prominent role on the atmospheric dynamics and on the convective rainfall distribution over the West Africa monsoon area during the boreal summer. In particular, the initialization of convective systems in the Sub – Sahelian region has been directly linked to soil moisture heterogeneities identified as the major triggering, development and propagation of convective systems. The present study aims at investigating African monsoon large scale convective dynamics and rainfall diurnal cycle through an exploration of the hypothesis behind the mechanisms of a monsoon phenomenon as an emergence of a collective dynamics of many propagating convective systems. Such hypothesis is based on the existence of an internal self – regulation mechanism among the various components. To achieve these results a multiple analysis was performed based on remote sensed rainfall dataset, and global and regional modelling data for a period of 5 seasons: 2004 - 2008. Satellite rainfall data and convective occurrence variability were studied for assessing typical spatio – temporal signatures and characteristics with an emphasis to the diurnal cycle footprint. A global model and regional model simulation datasets, specifically developed for this analysis and based on Regional Atmospheric Modelling System – RAMS, have been analysed. Results from numerical model datasets highlight the evidence of a synchronization between the destabilization of the convective boundary layer and rainfall occurrence due to the solar radiation forcing through the latent heat release. This supports the conclusion that the studied interacting systems are associated with a process of mutual adjustment of rhythms. Furthermore, this rainfall internal coherence was studied in relation to the West African Heat Low pressure system, which has a prominent role in the large scale summer variability over the Mediterranean area since it is acting as one of dynamic link between sub tropical and midlatitudes variability.