12 resultados para ROC

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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PREMESSA: La progressione della recidiva d’epatite C è accelerata nei pazienti sottoposti a trapianto di fegato e ciò ha portato alla necessità di sviluppare nuove e validate metodiche non invasive per la quantificazione e la misura della fibrosi epatica. SCOPI: Stabilire l’efficacia dell’elastometria epatica (Fibroscan®) e dei parametri sierici di fibrosi, attualmente disponibili nella pratica clinica, per predire il grado di fibrosi nei pazienti sottoposti a trapianto epatico. METODI: La correlazione fra fibrosi epatica, determinata mediante biopsia epatica ed esame istologico, e Fibroscan® o indici clinico-sierologici di fibrosi (Benlloch, Apri, Forns, Fibrotest and Doppler resistance index), è stata studiata in pazienti che avevano ricevuto un trapianto ortotopico di fegato con evidenza di recidiva d’epatite da HCV. Un totale di 36 pazienti, con la seguente classificazione istologica: fibrosi secondom METAVIR F1=24, F2=8, F3=3, F4=1, sono stati arruolati nella popolazione oggetto di studio. Un totale di 29 individui volontari sani sono serviti come controllo. Le differenze fra gli stadi di fibrosi sono state calcolate mediante analisi statistica non parametrica. Il miglior cut-off per la differenziazione di fibrosi significativa (F2-F4) è stato identificato mediante l’analisi delle curve ROC. RISULTATI: La rigidità epatica ha presentato valori di 4.4 KPa (2.7-6.9) nei controlli (mediane e ranges), con valori in tutti i soggeti <7.0 KPa; 7.75 KPa (4.2-28.0) negli F1; 16.95 KPa (10.2-31.6) negli F2; 21.10 KPa nell’unico paziente F4 cirrotico. Le differenze sono state statisticamente significative per i soggetti controllo versus F1 e F2 (p<0.0001) e per F1 versus F2 (p<0.0001). Un cut-off elastografico di 11.2 KPagarantisce 88% di Sensibilità, 90% di Specificità, 79% di PPV e 95% di NPV nel differenziare i soggetti F1 dagli F2-F4. Le AUROC, relativamente alla capacità di discriminare fra i differenti gradi di fibrosi, evidenziavano un netto vantaggio per il Fibroscan® rispetto ad ognuno degli indici non invasivi di fibrosi. CONCLUSIONI: L’elastometria epatica presenta una buona accuratezza diagnostica nell’identificare pazienti con fibrosi epatica di grado significativo, superiore a quella di tutti gli altri test non invasivi al momento disponibili nella clinica, nei pazienti portatori di trapianto epatico ortotopico da cadavere con recidiva di HCV.

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The first part of my thesis presents an overview of the different approaches used in the past two decades in the attempt to forecast epileptic seizure on the basis of intracranial and scalp EEG. Past research could reveal some value of linear and nonlinear algorithms to detect EEG features changing over different phases of the epileptic cycle. However, their exact value for seizure prediction, in terms of sensitivity and specificity, is still discussed and has to be evaluated. In particular, the monitored EEG features may fluctuate with the vigilance state and lead to false alarms. Recently, such a dependency on vigilance states has been reported for some seizure prediction methods, suggesting a reduced reliability. An additional factor limiting application and validation of most seizure-prediction techniques is their computational load. For the first time, the reliability of permutation entropy [PE] was verified in seizure prediction on scalp EEG data, contemporarily controlling for its dependency on different vigilance states. PE was recently introduced as an extremely fast and robust complexity measure for chaotic time series and thus suitable for online application even in portable systems. The capability of PE to distinguish between preictal and interictal state has been demonstrated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. Correlation analysis was used to assess dependency of PE on vigilance states. Scalp EEG-Data from two right temporal epileptic lobe (RTLE) patients and from one patient with right frontal lobe epilepsy were analysed. The last patient was included only in the correlation analysis, since no datasets including seizures have been available for him. The ROC analysis showed a good separability of interictal and preictal phases for both RTLE patients, suggesting that PE could be sensitive to EEG modifications, not visible on visual inspection, that might occur well in advance respect to the EEG and clinical onset of seizures. However, the simultaneous assessment of the changes in vigilance showed that: a) all seizures occurred in association with the transition of vigilance states; b) PE was sensitive in detecting different vigilance states, independently of seizure occurrences. Due to the limitations of the datasets, these results cannot rule out the capability of PE to detect preictal states. However, the good separability between pre- and interictal phases might depend exclusively on the coincidence of epileptic seizure onset with a transition from a state of low vigilance to a state of increased vigilance. The finding of a dependency of PE on vigilance state is an original finding, not reported in literature, and suggesting the possibility to classify vigilance states by means of PE in an authomatic and objectic way. The second part of my thesis provides the description of a novel behavioral task based on motor imagery skills, firstly introduced (Bruzzo et al. 2007), in order to study mental simulation of biological and non-biological movement in paranoid schizophrenics (PS). Immediately after the presentation of a real movement, participants had to imagine or re-enact the very same movement. By key release and key press respectively, participants had to indicate when they started and ended the mental simulation or the re-enactment, making it feasible to measure the duration of the simulated or re-enacted movements. The proportional error between duration of the re-enacted/simulated movement and the template movement were compared between different conditions, as well as between PS and healthy subjects. Results revealed a double dissociation between the mechanisms of mental simulation involved in biological and non-biologial movement simulation. While for PS were found large errors for simulation of biological movements, while being more acurate than healthy subjects during simulation of non-biological movements. Healthy subjects showed the opposite relationship, making errors during simulation of non-biological movements, but being most accurate during simulation of non-biological movements. However, the good timing precision during re-enactment of the movements in all conditions and in both groups of participants suggests that perception, memory and attention, as well as motor control processes were not affected. Based upon a long history of literature reporting the existence of psychotic episodes in epileptic patients, a longitudinal study, using a slightly modified behavioral paradigm, was carried out with two RTLE patients, one patient with idiopathic generalized epilepsy and one patient with extratemporal lobe epilepsy. Results provide strong evidence for a possibility to predict upcoming seizures in RTLE patients behaviorally. In the last part of the thesis it has been validated a behavioural strategy based on neurobiofeedback training, to voluntarily control seizures and to reduce there frequency. Three epileptic patients were included in this study. The biofeedback was based on monitoring of slow cortical potentials (SCPs) extracted online from scalp EEG. Patients were trained to produce positive shifts of SCPs. After a training phase patients were monitored for 6 months in order to validate the ability of the learned strategy to reduce seizure frequency. Two of the three refractory epileptic patients recruited for this study showed improvements in self-management and reduction of ictal episodes, even six months after the last training session.

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Aim of the present study was to evaluate the accuracy of transrectal ultrasound biopsy (TRUS-biopsy) directed to regions with abnormal MRI and/or MRSI (magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging ) for both the transition (TZ) and the peripheral (PZ) zones in patients who presented with persistent suspect for prostate cancer and with prior negative biopsy. We also evaluated relationship between MRSI results and histopathological findings of biopsy. 54 patients with the aforementioned characteristics underwent MRI/MRSI at least 6 months after prior negative biopsy; interval between MRI/3D-MRSI and the further TRUS-biopsy was less than 3 months. The prostate was divided in 12 regions both for imaging interpretation and biopsy. Moreover one to three cores more were taken from each region with abnormal MRI and/or 3D-MRSI. Twenty-two out of 54 patients presented cancer at MRI/MRSI-directed-TRUS-biopsy. On a patient basis the highest accuracy was obtained by assigning malignancy on a positive finding with MRSI and MRI even though it was not significantly greater than that obtained using MRI alone (area under the ROC curve, AUC: 0.723 vs. 0.676). On a region (n=648) basis the best accuracy was also obtained by considering positive both MRSI and MRI for PZ (0.768) and TZ (0.822). Twenty-eight per cent of cores with prostatitis were false positive findings on MRSI, whereas only 2.7% of benign prostatic hyperplasia was false positive. In conclusion the accuracy of MRI/MRSI-directed biopsies in localization of prostate cancer is good in patient and region analyses. The combination of both MRI and MRSI results makes TRUS-biopsy more accurate particularly in the TZ (0.822) for patients with prior negative biopsies. Histopathological analysis showed that the main limitation of MRSI is the percentage of false positive findings due to prostatitis.

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Introduction: Transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) is an accepted indication for treating refractory ascites. Different models have been proposed for the prediction of survival after TIPS; aim of present study was to evaluate the factors associated with mortality after TIPS for refractory ascites. Methods: Seventy-three consecutive patients undergoing a TIPS for refractory ascites in our centre between 2003 and 2008, were prospectively recorded in a database ad were the subject of the study. Mean follow-up was 17±2 months. Forty patients were awaiting liver transplantation (LT) and 12 (16.4%) underwent LT during follow-up. Results: Mean MELD at the moment of TIPS was 15.7±5.3. Overall mortality was 23.3% (n=17) with a mean survival after TIPS of 17±14 months. MELD score (B=0.161, p=0.042), AST (B= 0.020, p=0.090) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.016, p=0.093) were independent predictors of overall mortality. On multivariate analysis MELD (B=0.419, p=0.018) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.223, p=0.060) independently predicted 1 year survival. Patients were stratified into categories of death risk, using ROC curves for the variables MELD and HVPG. Patients with MELD<10 had a low probability of death after TIPS (n=6, 16% mortality); patients with HVPG <16 mmHg (n=6) had no mortality. Maximum risk of death was found in patients with MELD score 19 (n=16, 31% mortality) and in those with HVPG 25 mmHg (n=27, 26% mortality). Conclusions: TIPS increases overall survival in patients with refractory ascites. Liver function (assessed by MELD), necroinflammation (AST) and portal hypertension (HVPG) are independent predictors of survival; patients with MELD>19 and HVPG>25 mmHg are at highest risk of death after TIPS

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Purpose: to quantify the mRNA levels of MMP-3, MMP-9, VEGF and Survivin in peripheral blood and the serum levels of CA-125, Ca19-9 in women with and without endometriosis and to investigate the performance of these markers to differentiate between deep and ovarian endometriosis. Methods: a case controls study enrolled a series of 60 patients. Twenty controls have been matched with 20 cases of ovarian and 20 cases of deep endometriosis. Univariable and multivariable performance of serum CA125 and CA19-9, mRNA for Survivin, MMP9, MMP3 and VEGF genes have been evaluated by means of ROC curves and logistic regression respectively. Results: No difference in markers concentration were detected between ovarian and deep endometriosis. In comparison with controls serum CA19 and CA125 yielded the better sensitivity followed by mRNA for Survivin gene (81.5%, 51.9% and 7.5% at 10% false positive rate respectively). Multivariable estimated odds of endometriosis yielded a sensitivity of 87% at the same false positive rate. Conclusions: A combination of serum and molecular markers could allow a better diagnosis of endometriosis.

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La proteinuria è un marker di danno renale nel cane. L’obiettivo dello studio è di valutare la capacità del dipstick urinario e dell’UPC di diagnosticare precocemente l’albuminuria nel cane. Sono stati raccolti 868 campioni di urina, con sedimento spento e assenza di ematuria, nell’Ospedale Didattico Veterinario della Facoltà di Medicina Veterinaria di Bologna. Per 550 campioni è stata effettuata l’analisi delle urine, la misurazione dell’UPC e dell’UAC, mentre UPC e UAC sono stati misurati in tutti gli 868 campioni. I campioni di urina sono stati analizzati con il metodo dipstick mediante lettura automatizzata. Utilizzando come valore di riferimento l’UAC è stata valutata l’accuratezza diagnostica del dipstick urinario e dell’UPC. L’intervallo di riferimento dell’UAC (0-0,024) è stato determinato utilizzando 60 cani sani. I dati raccolti sono stati classificati utilizzando differenti cut-off per il peso specifico urinario (1012 o 1030), per la proteinuria al dipstick (30 o 100 mg/dl), per l’UPC (0,2) e per l’UAC (0,024). Sono stati valutati l’agreement diagnostico e la correlazione di Spearman tra dipstick, UPC e UAC. E’ stata stimata l’accuratezza diagnostica misurando l’area al di sotto della curva di ROC nell’analisi dell’UAC. Il livello di significatività è stato definito per p < 0,05. Indipendentemente dal peso specifico urinario, l’agreement diagnostico tra dipstick, UPC e UAC è risultato forte (k=0,62 e k=0,61, rispettivamente; p<0,001) con valori di dipstick ≥30 mg/dl, debole (k=0,27 e k=0,26, rispettivamente; p<0,001) con valori di dipstick ≥100 mg/dl. L’accuratezza diagnostica del dipstick messa a confronto con UPC e con UAC è molto buona (AUC 0,84 e 0,84, rispettivamente; p<0,001) e i risultati negativi al dipstick presentano il 100% di sensitività. UPC e UAC sono fortemente correlate (r=0,90; p<0,001). Mettendo a confronto UPC e UAC, l’accuratezza diagnostica è risultata eccellente (AUC 0,94; p<0,001), con massima sensitività e specificità per UPC≥0.3.

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This was a retrospective study including ninety samples of dogs with a histological diagnosis of intermediate grade cutaneous mast cell tumour (MCT). The objectives of the study were to validate Minichromosome Maintenance Protein 7 (MCM7) as a prognostic marker in MCTs and to compare the ability of mitotic index (MI), Ki67 and MCM7 to predict outcome. The median survival for the entire population was not reached at 2099 days. The mean survival time was 1708 days. Seventy-two cases were censored after a median follow up of 1136 days and eighteen dogs died for causes related to the MCT after a median of 116 days. For each sample MI, Ki67 and MCM7 were determined. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained for each prognostic marker to evaluate the performance of the test, expressed as area under the curve, and whether the published threshold value was adequate. Kaplan-Meier and corresponding logrank test for MI, Ki67 and MCM7 as binary variables was highly significant (P<0.0001). Multivariable regression analysis of MI, Ki67 and MCM7 corrected for age and surgical margins indicated that the higher risk of dying of MCT was associated with MCM7 > 0.18 (Hazard Ration [HR] 14.7; P<0.001) followed by MI > 5 (HR 13.9; P<0.001) and Ki67 > 0.018 (HR 8.9; P<0.001). Concluding, the present study confirmed that MCM7 is an excellent prognostic marker in cutaneous MCTs being able to divide Patnaik intermediate grade tumours in two categories with different prognosis. Ki67 was equally good confirming its value as a prognostic marker in intermediate grade MCTs. The mitotic index was extremely specific, but lacked of sensitivity. Interestingly, mitotic index, Ki67 and MCM7 were independent from each other suggesting that their combination would improve their individual prognostic value.

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Il Tumore a Cellule Giganti dell’osso (TCG) è una rara neoplasia che rappresenta il 5% dei tumori di natura ossea; sebbene venga considerato un tumore a decorso benigno può manifestare caratteri di aggressività locale dando origine a recidive locali nel 10-25% dei casi, e nel 2-4% dei casi metastatizza a livello polmonare. In questo studio è stata valutata l’espressione dei miRNA mediante miRNA microarray in 10 pazienti affetti da TCG, 5 con metastasi e 5 liberi da malattia; sono stati riscontrati miRNA differenzialmente espressi tra i 2 gruppi di pazienti e la successiva validazione mediante Real Time PCR ha confermato una differenza significativa per il miR-136 (p=0.04). Mediante analisi bioinformatica con il software TargetScan abbiamo identificato RANK e NF1B come target del miR-136 e ne abbiamo studiato l’espressione mediante Real Time PCR su una più ampia casistica di pazienti affetti da TCG, metastatico e non, evidenziando una maggior espressione di NF1B nel gruppo di pazienti metastatici, mentre RANK non ha dimostrato una differenza significativa. L’analisi di Western Blot ha rilevato una maggiore espressione di entrambe le proteine nei pazienti metastatici rispetto ai non metastatici. Successivamente è stato condotto uno studio di immunoistochimica su TMA di 163 campioni di pazienti affetti da TCG a diverso decorso clinico che ha dimostrato una maggiore e significativa espressione di entrambe i target nei pazienti con metastasi rispetto ai non metastatici; le analisi di popolazione mediante Kaplan-Meier hanno confermato la correlazione tra over-espressione di RANK, NF1B e ricaduta con metastasi (p=0.001 e p<0.0005 rispettivamente). Lo studio di immunoistochimica è stato ampliato alle proteine maggiormente coinvolte nell’osteolisi che risultano avere un significato prognostico; tuttavia mediante analisi di ROC, la co-over-espressione di RANK, RANKL e NF1B rappresenta il migliore modello per predire la comparsa di metastasi (AUC=0.782, p<0.0005).

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La Fondazione ANT rappresenta una delle più ampie esperienze al mondo di assistenza socio-sanitaria gratuita a domicilio ai malati di tumore, tramite équipe di specialisti costituite da medici, psicologi e infermieri. La patologia oncologica ha un enorme impatto sul benessere dei pazienti. Un modo per raggruppare i diversi sintomi di disagio psicologico è utilizzare il concetto di distress, che sarebbe importante monitorare in modo semplice e veloce. Primo studio: 66 pazienti oncologici (40% uomini; età media 54 anni) in cure palliative domiciliari. Il 79% dei pazienti ha mostrato livelli clinicamente significativi di distress. Il 55% dei partecipanti allo studio ha riportato alti livelli di ansia, e l'81% dei pazienti ha riportato alti livelli di depressione. Dall'analisi delle curve ROC il singolo item del Distress Thermometer, con un cut-off maggiore o uguale a 4, è stato in grado di rilevare il 97% dei soggetti con punteggi clinici di ansia e depressione, quindi può essere utilizzato anche come uno strumento di screening precoce rapido ed affidabile per i disturbi dell'umore. I familiari sono la prima risorsa dei malati di tumore, e l'identificazione dei loro bisogni è utile per individuare chi ha maggiore necessità di aiuto ed in quali aree. Secondo studio: 115 caregiver di pazienti oncologici (37% uomini; età media 52 anni). Di seguito i bisogni più frequenti. Salute psicofisica: “preoccupazioni circa il/la paziente” (72%), ansia (53%) e rabbia (52%). Informazioni: “come prendersi cura del paziente” (64%), “terapie alternative e/o complementari” (64%) e “come gestire lo stress” (57%). Servizi e strutture sanitarie: “un operatore di riferimento”, (65%), “cure infermieristiche a domicilio” (62%), “indicazioni su servizi ospedalieri” (57%), ed “assistenza per caregiver, ad esempio consulenza psicologica” (55%). Il monitoraggio dei bisogni consentirebbe un'ottimizzazione dell'assistenza, prevenendo situazioni che potrebbero compromettere il benessere della famiglia e la qualità dell'assistenza fornita al paziente.

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Toxoplasma gondii is an obligate intracellular parasite capable of infecting virtually all warm-blooded species, including humans, but cats are the only definitive hosts. Humans or animals acquire T. gondii infection by ingesting food or water contaminated with sporulated oocysts or by ingesting tissue cysts containing bradyzoites. Toxoplasmosis has the highest human incidence among zoonotic parasitic diseases, but it is still considered an underreported zoonosis. The importance of T. gondii primary infection in livestock is related to the ability of the parasite to produce tissue cysts in infected animals, which may represent important sources of infection for humans. Consumption of undercooked mutton and pork are considered important sources of human Toxoplasma gondii. The first aim of this thesis was to develop a rapid and sensitive in- house indirect ELISA for the detection of antibodies against T. gondii in sheep sera. ROC-curve analysis showed high discriminatory power (AUC=0.999) and high sensitivity (99.4%) and specificity (99.8%) of the method. The ELISA was used to test a batch of sheep sera (375) collected in the Forli-Cesena district. The overall prevalence was estimated at 41.9% demonstrating that T. gondii infection is widely distributed in sheep reared in Forli-Cesena district. Since the epidemiological impact of waterborne transmission route of T.gondii to humans is now thought to be more significant than previously believed, the second aim of the thesis was to evaluate PCR based methods for detecting T. gondii DNA in raw and finished drinking water samples collected in Scotland. Samples were tested using a quantitative PCR on 529 bp repetitive elements. Only one raw water sample (0.3%), out of the 358 examined, tested T. gondii positive demonstrating that there is no evidence that tap water is a source of Toxoplasma infection in Scotland.

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Introduction: Antiviral therapy can prevent disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C . Transient Elastografy (TE; Fibroscan) is an accurate surrogate marker to liver fibrosis, by measuring liver stiffness (LS). LS decrease has been associated with sustained virologic response (SVR). Aim: to assess the changes of LS measurments in CHC patients during and one year after Interferon (IFN)-based antiviral therapy (IFN/ribavirin) or (telaprevir+IFN/ribavirin). Methods: consecutive 69 CHC patients (53.6% females, mean age 57.9 ± 11.4) who underwent antiviral therapy for at least 20 weeks were enrolled. LS was measured using FibroScan at baseline, after three months, at the end of treatment and one year after treatment discontinuation. Fibrosis was graded using METAVIR score. Results: twenty patients treated with triple therapy and 49 with IFN/ribavirin. Fifty patients had SVR and 19 were non-responders. SVR patients: F0-F1, F2 and F3 patients (39.1%, 7.2% and 17.4%; respectively) showed no significant LS decrease (P= 0.186, 0.068 and 0.075; respectively). Conversely, in F4 patients (36.2%) LS was significantly decreased (P=0.015) after one year of treatment completion. In all patients with no SVR, no significant decrease in LS was observed. Interestingly, all Patients with F4 fibrosis (even non-responders) showed an initial significant decrease in LS (P=0.024) at 3 months after the start of treatment. However, this decrease was not predictive of SVR; area under the ROC curve 0.369 (CI %: 0.145-0.592) P= 0.265. Conclusion: Our study showed that initial decrease in LSM, especially in patients with higher baseline fibrosis score is unlikely to predict an SVR. In addition no significant association was found between clinical or virological parameters and fibrosis improvement. Further studies are needed to delineate the most appropriate clinical scenarios for the LSM by Fibroscan in chronic hepatitis C and its role in monitoring the response to antiviral treatment.

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Background-Amyloidotic cardiomyopathy (AC) can mimic true left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), including hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and hypertensive heart disease (HHD). We assessed the diagnostic value of combined electrocardiographic/echocardiographic indexes to identify AC among patients with increased echocardiographic LV wall thickness due to either different etiologies of amyloidosis or HCM or HHD. Method-First, we studied 469 consecutive patients: 262 with biopsy/genetically proven AC (with either AL or transthyretin (TTR)-related amyloidosis); 106 with HCM; 101 with HHD. We compared the diagnostic performance of: low QRS voltage, symmetric LVH, low QRS voltage plus interventricular septal thickness >1.98 cm, Sokolow index divided by the cross-sectional area of LV wall, Sokolow index divided by body surface area indexed LV mass (LVMI), Sokolow index divided by LV wall thickness, Sokolow index divided by (LV wall/height^2.7); peripheral QRS score divided by LVMI, Peripheral QRS score divided by LV wall thickness, Peripheral QRS score divided by LV wall thickness indexed to height^2.7, total QRS score divided by LVMI, total QRS score divided by LV wall thickness; total QRS score divided by (LV wall/height^2.7). We tested each criterion, separately in males and females, in the following settings: AC vs. HCM+HHD; AC vs. HCM; AL vs. HCM+HHD; AL vs. HCM; TTR vs. HCM+HHD; TTR vs. HCM. Results-Low QRS voltage showed high specificity but low sensitivity for the identification of AC. All the combined indexes had a higher diagnostic accuracy, being total QRS score divided by LV wall thickness or by LVMI associated with the best performances and the largest areas under the ROC curve. These results were validated in 298 consecutive patients with AC, HCM or HHD. Conclusions-In patients with increased LV wall thickness, a combined ECG/ echocardiogram analysis provides accurate indexes to non-invasively identify AC. Total QRS score divided by LVMI or LV wall thickness offers the best diagnostic performance.