Interaction between APOE4 genotype and environmental risk factors in Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is probably caused by both genetic and environmental risk factors. The major genetic risk factor is the E4 variant of apolipoprotein E gene called apoE4. Several risk factors for developing AD have been identified including lifestyle, such as dietary habits. The mechanisms behind the AD pathogenesis and the onset of cognitive decline in the AD brain are presently unknown. In this study we wanted to characterize the effects of the interaction between environmental risk factors and apoE genotype on neurodegeneration processes, with particular focus on behavioural studies and neurodegenerative processes at molecular level. Towards this aim, we used 6 months-old apoE4 and apoE3 Target Replacement (TR) mice fed on different diets (high intake of cholesterol and high intake of carbohydrates). These mice were evaluated for learning and memory deficits in spatial reference (Morris Water Maze (MWM)) and contextual learning (Passive Avoidance) tasks, which involve the hippocampus and the amygdala, respectively. From these behavioural studies we found that the initial cognitive impairments manifested as a retention deficit in apoE4 mice fed on high carbohydrate diet. Thus, the genetic risk factor apoE4 genotype associated with a high carbohydrate diet seems to affect cognitive functions in young mice, corroborating the theory that the combination of genetic and environmental risk factors greatly increases the risk of developing AD and leads to an earlier onset of cognitive deficits. The cellular and molecular bases of the cognitive decline in AD are largely unknown. In order to determine the molecular changes for the onset of the early cognitive impairment observed in the behavioural studies, we performed molecular studies, with particular focus on synaptic integrity and Tau phosphorylation. The most relevant finding of our molecular studies showed a significant decrease of Brain-derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in apoE4 mice fed on high carbohydrate diet. Our results may suggest that BDNF decrease found in apoE4 HS mice could be involved in the earliest impairment in long-term reference memory observed in behavioural studies. The second aim of this thesis was to study possible involvement of leptin in AD. There is growing evidence that leptin has neuroprotective properties in the Central Nervous System (CNS). Recent evidence has shown that leptin and its receptors are widespread in the CNS and may provide neuronal survival signals. However, there are still numerous questions, regarding the molecular mechanism by which leptin acts, that remain unanswered. Thus, given to the importance of the involvement of leptin in AD, we wanted to clarify the function of leptin in the pathogenesis of AD and to investigate if apoE genotype affect leptin levels through studies in vitro, in mice and in human. Our findings suggest that apoE4 TR mice showed an increase of leptin in the brain. Leptin levels are also increased in the cerebral spinal fluid of AD patients and apoE4 carriers with AD have higher levels of leptin than apoE3 carriers. Moreover, leptin seems to be expressed by reactive glial cells in AD brains. In vitro, ApoE4 together with Amyloid beta increases leptin production by microglia and astrocytes. Taken together, all these findings suggest that leptin replacement might not be a good strategy for AD therapy. Our results show that high leptin levels were found in AD brains. These findings suggest that, as high leptin levels do not promote satiety in obese individuals, it might be possible that they do not promote neuroprotection in AD patients. Therefore, we hypothesized that AD brain could suffer from leptin resistance. Further studies will be critical to determine whether or not the central leptin resistance in SNC could affect its potential neuroprotective effects.

Before It's Too Late: INGOs' Handling of Conflict Risk in South Sudan

What do international non-governmental organisations (INGOs) do before and during the escalation of conflicts? The academic literature primarily focuses on these organisations' behaviour during an evident crisis rather than on how they anticipate the escalation of conflicts, assess the situation in which they find themselves, and decide on strategies to cope with the possibility of upcoming violence. Such lopsided focus persists despite calls for INGOs to become more proactive in managing their programmes and their staff members' safety. Mindful of this imbalance, the present study provides a causal explanation of how decision-makers in INGOs anticipate and react to the risk of low-level violence escalating into full-blown conflicts. This thesis aims to explain these actors' behaviour by presenting it as a two�step process involving how INGOs conduct risk assessments and how they turn these assessments into decisions. The study performs a structured, focused comparison of seven INGOs operating in South Sudan before the so-called Juba Clashes of 7 July 2016. Based on an analytical framework of INGO decision�making stemming from political risk analysis, organisational decision-making theory and conflict studies literature, the study reconstructs decision-making via process-tracing combined with mixed methods of data collection.

Joint value at risk: a new conditional risk measure

In this PhD thesis a new firm level conditional risk measure is developed. It is named Joint Value at Risk (JVaR) and is defined as a quantile of a conditional distribution of interest, where the conditioning event is a latent upper tail event. It addresses the problem of how risk changes under extreme volatility scenarios. The properties of JVaR are studied based on a stochastic volatility representation of the underlying process. We prove that JVaR is leverage consistent, i.e. it is an increasing function of the dependence parameter in the stochastic representation. A feasible class of nonparametric M-estimators is introduced by exploiting the elicitability of quantiles and the stochastic ordering theory. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the two stage M-estimator are derived, and a simulation study is reported to illustrate its finite-sample properties. Parametric estimation methods are also discussed. The relation with the VaR is exploited to introduce a volatility contribution measure, and a tail risk measure is also proposed. The analysis of the dynamic JVaR is presented based on asymmetric stochastic volatility models. Empirical results with S&P500 data show that accounting for extreme volatility levels is relevant to better characterize the evolution of risk. The work is complemented by a review of the literature, where we provide an overview on quantile risk measures, elicitable functionals and several stochastic orderings.