Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Transposable elements: structure and dynamic of the autonomous retrotransposon R2 in Arthropoda with non-canonical reproduction

Eukaryotic ribosomal DNA constitutes a multi gene family organized in a cluster called nucleolar organizer region (NOR); this region is composed usually by hundreds to thousands of tandemly repeated units. Ribosomal genes, being repeated sequences, evolve following the typical pattern of concerted evolution. The autonomous retroelement R2 inserts in the ribosomal gene 28S, leading to defective 28S rDNA genes. R2 element, being a retrotransposon, performs its activity in the genome multiplying its copy number through a “copy and paste” mechanism called target primed reverse transcription. It consists in the retrotranscription of the element’s mRNA into DNA, then the DNA is integrated in the target site. Since the retrotranscription can be interrupted, but the integration will be carried out anyway, truncated copies of the element will also be present in the genome. The study of these truncated variants is a tool to examine the activity of the element. R2 phylogeny appears, in general, not consistent with that of its hosts, except some cases (e.g. Drosophila spp. and Reticulitermes spp.); moreover R2 is absent in some species (Fugu rubripes, human, mouse, etc.), while other species have more R2 lineages in their genome (the turtle Mauremys reevesii, the Japanese beetle Popilia japonica, etc). R2 elements here presented are isolated in 4 species of notostracan branchiopods and in two species of stick insects, whose reproductive strategies range from strict gonochorism to unisexuality. From sequencing data emerges that in Triops cancriformis (Spanish gonochoric population), in Lepidurus arcticus (two putatively unisexual populations from Iceland) and in Bacillus rossius (gonochoric population from Capalbio) the R2 elements are complete and encode functional proteins, reflecting the general features of this family of transposable elements. On the other hand, R2 from Italian and Austrian populations of T. cancriformis (respectively unisexual and hermaphroditic), Lepidurus lubbocki (two elements within the same Italian population, gonochoric but with unfunctional males) and Bacillus grandii grandii (gonochoric population from Ponte Manghisi) have sequences that encode incomplete or non-functional proteins in which it is possible to recognize only part of the characteristic domains. In Lepidurus couesii (Italian gonochoric populations) different elements were found as in L. lubbocki, and the sequencing is still in progress. Two hypothesis are given to explain the inconsistency of R2/host phylogeny: vertical inheritance of the element followed by extinction/diversification or horizontal transmission. My data support previous study that state the vertical transmission as the most likely explanation; nevertheless horizontal transfer events can’t be excluded. I also studied the element’s activity in Spanish populations of T. cancriformis, in L. lubbocki, in L. arcticus and in gonochoric and parthenogenetic populations of B. rossius. In gonochoric populations of T. cancriformis and B. rossius I found that each individual has its own private set of truncated variants. The situation is the opposite for the remaining hermaphroditic/parthenogenetic species and populations, all individuals sharing – in the so far analyzed samples - the majority of variants. This situation is very interesting, because it isn’t concordant with the Muller’s ratchet theory that hypothesizes the parthenogenetic populations being either devoided of transposable elements or TEs overloaded. My data suggest a possible epigenetic mechanism that can block the retrotransposon activity, and in this way deleterious mutations don’t accumulate.

A molecular phylogeny of bivalve mollusks: ancient radiations and divergences as revealed by mitochondrial genes

The main scope of my PhD is the reconstruction of the large-scale bivalve phylogeny on the basis of four mitochondrial genes, with samples taken from all major groups of the class. To my knowledge, it is the first attempt of such a breadth in Bivalvia. I decided to focus on both ribosomal and protein coding DNA sequences (two ribosomal encoding genes -12s and 16s -, and two protein coding ones - cytochrome c oxidase I and cytochrome b), since either bibliography and my preliminary results confirmed the importance of combined gene signals in improving evolutionary pathways of the group. Moreover, I wanted to propose a methodological pipeline that proved to be useful to obtain robust results in bivalves phylogeny. Actually, best-performing taxon sampling and alignment strategies were tested, and several data partitioning and molecular evolution models were analyzed, thus demonstrating the importance of molding and implementing non-trivial evolutionary models. In the line of a more rigorous approach to data analysis, I also proposed a new method to assess taxon sampling, by developing Clarke and Warwick statistics: taxon sampling is a major concern in phylogenetic studies, and incomplete, biased, or improper taxon assemblies can lead to misleading results in reconstructing evolutionary trees. Theoretical methods are already available to optimize taxon choice in phylogenetic analyses, but most involve some knowledge about genetic relationships of the group of interest, or even a well-established phylogeny itself; these data are not always available in general phylogenetic applications. The method I proposed measures the "phylogenetic representativeness" of a given sample or set of samples and it is based entirely on the pre-existing available taxonomy of the ingroup, which is commonly known to investigators. Moreover, it also accounts for instability and discordance in taxonomies. A Python-based script suite, called PhyRe, has been developed to implement all analyses.

Antipodal random sequences with prescribed second-order statistics: application to Compressive Sensing and UWB system based on DS-CDMA

It is usual to hear a strange short sentence: «Random is better than...». Why is randomness a good solution to a certain engineering problem? There are many possible answers, and all of them are related to the considered topic. In this thesis I will discuss about two crucial topics that take advantage by randomizing some waveforms involved in signals manipulations. In particular, advantages are guaranteed by shaping the second order statistic of antipodal sequences involved in an intermediate signal processing stages. The first topic is in the area of analog-to-digital conversion, and it is named Compressive Sensing (CS). CS is a novel paradigm in signal processing that tries to merge signal acquisition and compression at the same time. Consequently it allows to direct acquire a signal in a compressed form. In this thesis, after an ample description of the CS methodology and its related architectures, I will present a new approach that tries to achieve high compression by design the second order statistics of a set of additional waveforms involved in the signal acquisition/compression stage. The second topic addressed in this thesis is in the area of communication system, in particular I focused the attention on ultra-wideband (UWB) systems. An option to produce and decode UWB signals is direct-sequence spreading with multiple access based on code division (DS-CDMA). Focusing on this methodology, I will address the coexistence of a DS-CDMA system with a narrowband interferer. To do so, I minimize the joint effect of both multiple access (MAI) and narrowband (NBI) interference on a simple matched filter receiver. I will show that, when spreading sequence statistical properties are suitably designed, performance improvements are possible with respect to a system exploiting chaos-based sequences minimizing MAI only.

Low Correlated Sequences & Architectures and Algorithms for Analog-to-Information Converters: Theory, Design, Implementation and Applications.

Most electronic systems can be described in a very simplified way as an assemblage of analog and digital components put all together in order to perform a certain function. Nowadays, there is an increasing tendency to reduce the analog components, and to replace them by operations performed in the digital domain. This tendency has led to the emergence of new electronic systems that are more flexible, cheaper and robust. However, no matter the amount of digital process implemented, there will be always an analog part to be sorted out and thus, the step of converting digital signals into analog signals and vice versa cannot be avoided. This conversion can be more or less complex depending on the characteristics of the signals. Thus, even if it is desirable to replace functions carried out by analog components by digital processes, it is equally important to do so in a way that simplifies the conversion from digital to analog signals and vice versa. In the present thesis, we have study strategies based on increasing the amount of processing in the digital domain in such a way that the implementation of analog hardware stages can be simplified. To this aim, we have proposed the use of very low quantized signals, i.e. 1-bit, for the acquisition and for the generation of particular classes of signals.

Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.