The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Landscape ecology and genetics of the wolf in Italy

This PhD Thesis includes five main parts on diverse topics. The first two parts deal with the trophic ecology of wolves in Italy consequently to a recent increase of wild ungulates abundance. Data on wolf diet across time highlighted how wild ungulates are important food resource for wolves in Italy. Increasing wolf population, increasing numbers of wild ungulates and decreasing livestock consume are mitigating wolf-man conflicts in Italy in the near future. In the third part, non-invasive genetic sampling techniques were used to obtain genotypes and genders of about 400 wolves. Thus, wolf packs were genetically reconstructed using diverse population genetic and parentage software. Combining the results on pack structure and genetic relatedness with sampling locations, home ranges of wolf packs and dispersal patterns were identified. These results, particularly important for the conservation management of wolves in Italy, illustrated detailed information that can be retrieved from genetic identification of individuals. In the fourth part, wolf locations were combined with environmental information obtained as GIS-layers. Modern species distribution models (niche models) were applied to infer potential wolf distribution and predation risk. From the resulting distribution maps, information pastures with the highest risk of depredation were derived. This is particularly relevant as it allows identifying those areas under danger of carnivore attack on livestock. Finally, in the fifth part, habitat suitability models were combined with landscape genetic analysis. On one side landscape genetic analyses on the Italian wolves provided new information on the dynamics and connectivity of the population and, on the other side, a profound analysis of the effects that habitat suitability methods had on the parameterization of landscape genetic analyses was carried out to contributed significantly to landscape genetic theory.

Advanced representation of the ocean/sea ice dynamics at high latitudes

Sea ice is a fundamental element of global climate system, with numerous impacts on the polar environment. The ongoing drastic changes in the Earth’s sea ice cover highlight the necessity of monitoring the polar regions and systematically evaluating the quality of different numerical products. The main objective of this thesis is to improve our knowledge of the representation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice using comprehensive global ocean reanalyses and coupled climate models. The dissertation will explore (i) the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice area in the ensemble mean of four global ocean reanalyses called GREP; (ii) historical representation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice state in HighResMIP models; (iii) the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in HighResMIP models. Global ocean reanalyses and GREP are found to adequately capture interannual and seasonal variability in both pack ice and MIZ areas at hemispheric and regional scales. The advantage of the ensemble-mean approach is proved as GREP smooths the strengths and weaknesses of single systems and provides the most consistent and reliable estimates. This work is intended to encourage the use of GREP in a wide range of applications. The analysis of sea ice representation in the coupled climate models shows no systematic impact of the increased horizontal resolution. We argue that a few minor improvements in sea ice representation with the enhanced horizontal resolution are presumably not worth the major effort of costly computations. The thesis highlights the critical importance to distinguish the MIZ from consolidated pack ice both for investigating changes in sea ice distribution and evaluating the product’s performance. Considering that the MIZ is predicted to dominate the Arctic sea ice cover, the model physics parameterizations and sea ice rheology might require modifications. The results of the work can be useful for modelling community.

Clinical impact of next-generation sequencing multi-gene panel highlighting the landscape of germline alterations in ovarian cancer patients

BRCA1 and BRCA2 are the most frequently mutated genes in ovarian cancer (OC), crucial both for the identification of cancer predisposition and therapeutic choices. However, germline variants in other genes could be involved in OC susceptibility. We characterized OC patients to detect mutations in genes other than BRCA1/2 that could be associated with a high risk to develop OC, and that could permit patients to enter the most appropriate treatment and surveillance program. Next-Generation Sequencing analysis with a 94-gene panel was performed on germline DNA of 219 OC patients. We identified 34 pathogenic/likely-pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2 and 38 in other 21 genes. Patients with pathogenic/likely-pathogenic variants in non-BRCA1/2 genes developed mainly OC alone compared to the other groups that developed also breast cancer or other tumors (p=0.001). Clinical correlation analysis showed that low-risk patients were significantly associated with platinum sensitivity (p<0.001). Regarding PARP inhibitors (PARPi) response, patients with pathogenic mutations in non-BRCA1/2 genes had significantly worse PFS and OS. Moreover, a statistically significant worse PFS was found for every increase of one thousand platelets before PARPi treatment. To conclude, knowledge about molecular alterations in genes beyond BRCA1/2 in OC could allow for more personalized diagnostic, predictive, prognostic, and therapeutic strategies for OC patients.

Bright-field multiplex immunohistochemistry for tumor. Microenvironment evaluation in mucosal melanoma of the head and neck region: technical aspects, results, and correlation with clinicopathologic features and molecular landscape

Mucosal melanoma of the head and neck region (MM-H&N) is a rare disease, characterized by a poor prognosis and limited therapeutic strategies, especially regarding targeted therapy (lower rate of targetable mutations compared to cutaneous melanoma) and immunotherapy (lack of diagnostic tools able to predict the response). Meanwhile, bright-field multiplex immunohistochemistry (BF-mIHC) is emerging as a promising tool for characterizing tumor microenvironment (TME) and predicting response to immunotherapy in several tumors, including melanoma. This PhD project aims to develop a BF-mIHC protocol to evaluate the TME in MM-H&N, analyze the correlation between immune markers/immune profiles and MM-H&N features (clinicopathologic and molecular), and find new biomarkers useful for prognostic-therapeutic stratification of these patients. Specific aims are: (I) describe the clinicopathological features of MM-H&N; (II) analyze the molecular status of MM-H&N and correlate it with the clinicopathological features; (III) analyze the molecular status of multiple specimens from the same patient to verify whether molecular heterogeneity of MM-H&N could affect the results with relevant prognostic-therapeutic implications; (IV) develop a BF-mIHC protocol to study TME in MM-H&N; (V) analyze the correlation between immune markers/immune profiles and MM-H&N features (clinicopathologic and molecular) to test whether BF-mIHC could be a promising tool for prognostic-therapeutic characterization of these patients.

Kinematic description of the rupture from strong motion data: strategies for a robust inversion

We present a non linear technique to invert strong motion records with the aim of obtaining the final slip and rupture velocity distributions on the fault plane. In this thesis, the ground motion simulation is obtained evaluating the representation integral in the frequency. The Green’s tractions are computed using the discrete wave-number integration technique that provides the full wave-field in a 1D layered propagation medium. The representation integral is computed through a finite elements technique, based on a Delaunay’s triangulation on the fault plane. The rupture velocity is defined on a coarser regular grid and rupture times are computed by integration of the eikonal equation. For the inversion, the slip distribution is parameterized by 2D overlapping Gaussian functions, which can easily relate the spectrum of the possible solutions with the minimum resolvable wavelength, related to source-station distribution and data processing. The inverse problem is solved by a two-step procedure aimed at separating the computation of the rupture velocity from the evaluation of the slip distribution, the latter being a linear problem, when the rupture velocity is fixed. The non-linear step is solved by optimization of an L2 misfit function between synthetic and real seismograms, and solution is searched by the use of the Neighbourhood Algorithm. The conjugate gradient method is used to solve the linear step instead. The developed methodology has been applied to the M7.2, Iwate Nairiku Miyagi, Japan, earthquake. The estimated magnitude seismic moment is 2.6326 dyne∙cm that corresponds to a moment magnitude MW 6.9 while the mean the rupture velocity is 2.0 km/s. A large slip patch extends from the hypocenter to the southern shallow part of the fault plane. A second relatively large slip patch is found in the northern shallow part. Finally, we gave a quantitative estimation of errors associates with the parameters.

Theoretical and implementation aspects in the mechanization of the metatheory of programming languages

Interactive theorem provers are tools designed for the certification of formal proofs developed by means of man-machine collaboration. Formal proofs obtained in this way cover a large variety of logical theories, ranging from the branches of mainstream mathematics, to the field of software verification. The border between these two worlds is marked by results in theoretical computer science and proofs related to the metatheory of programming languages. This last field, which is an obvious application of interactive theorem proving, poses nonetheless a serious challenge to the users of such tools, due both to the particularly structured way in which these proofs are constructed, and to difficulties related to the management of notions typical of programming languages like variable binding. This thesis is composed of two parts, discussing our experience in the development of the Matita interactive theorem prover and its use in the mechanization of the metatheory of programming languages. More specifically, part I covers: - the results of our effort in providing a better framework for the development of tactics for Matita, in order to make their implementation and debugging easier, also resulting in a much clearer code; - a discussion of the implementation of two tactics, providing infrastructure for the unification of constructor forms and the inversion of inductive predicates; we point out interactions between induction and inversion and provide an advancement over the state of the art. In the second part of the thesis, we focus on aspects related to the formalization of programming languages. We describe two works of ours: - a discussion of basic issues we encountered in our formalizations of part 1A of the Poplmark challenge, where we apply the extended inversion principles we implemented for Matita; - a formalization of an algebraic logical framework, posing more complex challenges, including multiple binding and a form of hereditary substitution; this work adopts, for the encoding of binding, an extension of Masahiko Sato's canonical locally named representation we designed during our visit to the Laboratory for Foundations of Computer Science at the University of Edinburgh, under the supervision of Randy Pollack.

Genome characterization through a mathematical model of the genetic code: an analysis of the whole chromosome 1 of A. thaliana

The objective of this work is to characterize the genome of the chromosome 1 of A.thaliana, a small flowering plants used as a model organism in studies of biology and genetics, on the basis of a recent mathematical model of the genetic code. I analyze and compare different portions of the genome: genes, exons, coding sequences (CDS), introns, long introns, intergenes, untranslated regions (UTR) and regulatory sequences. In order to accomplish the task, I transformed nucleotide sequences into binary sequences based on the definition of the three different dichotomic classes. The descriptive analysis of binary strings indicate the presence of regularities in each portion of the genome considered. In particular, there are remarkable differences between coding sequences (CDS and exons) and non-coding sequences, suggesting that the frame is important only for coding sequences and that dichotomic classes can be useful to recognize them. Then, I assessed the existence of short-range dependence between binary sequences computed on the basis of the different dichotomic classes. I used three different measures of dependence: the well-known chi-squared test and two indices derived from the concept of entropy i.e. Mutual Information (MI) and Sρ, a normalized version of the “Bhattacharya Hellinger Matusita distance”. The results show that there is a significant short-range dependence structure only for the coding sequences whose existence is a clue of an underlying error detection and correction mechanism. No doubt, further studies are needed in order to assess how the information carried by dichotomic classes could discriminate between coding and noncoding sequence and, therefore, contribute to unveil the role of the mathematical structure in error detection and correction mechanisms. Still, I have shown the potential of the approach presented for understanding the management of genetic information.

Radar based improvements and diagnosis of the convective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model

In the last few years the resolution of numerical weather prediction (nwp) became higher and higher with the progresses of technology and knowledge. As a consequence, a great number of initial data became fundamental for a correct initialization of the models. The potential of radar observations has long been recognized for improving the initial conditions of high-resolution nwp models, while operational application becomes more frequent. The fact that many nwp centres have recently taken into operations convection-permitting forecast models, many of which assimilate radar data, emphasizes the need for an approach to providing quality information which is needed in order to avoid that radar errors degrade the model's initial conditions and, therefore, its forecasts. Environmental risks can can be related with various causes: meteorological, seismical, hydrological/hydraulic. Flash floods have horizontal dimension of 1-20 Km and can be inserted in mesoscale gamma subscale, this scale can be modeled only with nwp model with the highest resolution as the COSMO-2 model. One of the problems of modeling extreme convective events is related with the atmospheric initial conditions, in fact the scale dimension for the assimilation of atmospheric condition in an high resolution model is about 10 Km, a value too high for a correct representation of convection initial conditions. Assimilation of radar data with his resolution of about of Km every 5 or 10 minutes can be a solution for this problem. In this contribution a pragmatic and empirical approach to deriving a radar data quality description is proposed to be used in radar data assimilation and more specifically for the latent heat nudging (lhn) scheme. Later the the nvective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model are investigated through some case studies. Finally, this work shows some preliminary experiments of coupling of a high resolution meteorological model with an Hydrological one.

The European External Action Service and the Implementation of the 'Union Method' in European Foreign Policy

The European External Action Service (EEAS or Service) is one of the most significant and most debated innovations introduced by the Lisbon Treaty. This analysis intends to explain the anomalous design of the EEAS in light of its function, which consists in the promotion of external action coherence. Coherence is a principle of the EU legal system, which requires synergy in the external actions of the Union and its Members. It can be enforced only through the coordination of European policy-makers' initiatives, by bridging the gap between the 'Communitarian' and intergovernmental approaches. This is the 'Union method' envisaged by A. Merkel: "coordinated action in a spirit of solidarity - each of us in the area for which we are responsible but all working towards the same goal". The EEAS embodies the 'Union method', since it is institutionally linked to both Union organs and Member States. It is also capable of enhancing synergy in policy management and promoting unity in international representation, since its field of action is delimited not by an abstract concern for institutional balance but by a pragmatic assessment of the need for coordination in each sector. The challenge is now to make sure that this pragmatic approach is applied with respect to all the activities of the Service, in order to reinforce its effectiveness. The coordination brought by the EEAS is in fact the only means through which a European foreign policy can come into being: the choice is not between the Community method and the intergovernmental method, but between a coordinated position and nothing at all.

Development, degeneration and neural network of the bodily self

The question addressed by this dissertation is how the human brain builds a coherent representation of the body, and how this representation is used to recognize its own body. Recent approaches by neuroimaging and TMS revealed hints for a distinct brain representation of human body, as compared with other stimulus categories. Neuropsychological studies demonstrated that body-parts and self body-parts recognition are separate processes sub-served by two different, even if possibly overlapping, networks within the brain. Bodily self-recognition is one aspect of our ability to distinguish between self and others and the self/other distinction is a crucial aspect of social behaviour. This is the reason why I have conducted a series of experiment on subjects with everyday difficulties in social and emotional behaviour, such as patients with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD). More specifically, I studied the implicit self body/face recognition (Chapter 6) and the influence of emotional body postures on bodily self-processing in TD children as well as in ASD children (Chapter 7). I found that the bodily self-recognition is present in TD and in ASD children and that emotional body postures modulate self and others’ body processing. Subsequently, I compared implicit and explicit bodily self-recognition in a neuro-degenerative pathology, such as in PD patients, and I found a selective deficit in implicit but not in explicit self-recognition (Chapter 8). This finding suggests that implicit and explicit bodily self-recognition are separate processes subtended by different mechanisms that can be selectively impaired. If the bodily self is crucial for self/other distinction, the space around the body (personal space) represents the space of interaction and communication with others. When, I studied this space in autism, I found that personal space regulation is impaired in ASD children (Chapter 9).

Visual-somatosensory interactions in mental representations of the body and the face

The body is represented in the brain at levels that incorporate multisensory information. This thesis focused on interactions between vision and cutaneous sensations (i.e., touch and pain). Experiment 1 revealed that there are partially dissociable pathways for visual enhancement of touch (VET) depending upon whether one sees one’s own body or the body of another person. This indicates that VET, a seeming low-level effect on spatial tactile acuity, is actually sensitive to body identity. Experiments 2-4 explored the effect of viewing one’s own body on pain perception. They demonstrated that viewing the body biases pain intensity judgments irrespective of actual stimulus intensity, and, more importantly, reduces the discriminative capacities of the nociceptive pathway encoding noxious stimulus intensity. The latter effect only occurs if the pain-inducing event itself is not visible, suggesting that viewing the body alone and viewing a stimulus event on the body have distinct effects on cutaneous sensations. Experiment 5 replicated an enhancement of visual remapping of touch (VRT) when viewing fearful human faces being touched, and further demonstrated that VRT does not occur for observed touch on non-human faces, even fearful ones. This suggests that the facial expressions of non-human animals may not be simulated within the somatosensory system of the human observer in the same way that the facial expressions of other humans are. Finally, Experiment 6 examined the enfacement illusion, in which synchronous visuo-tactile inputs cause another’s face to be assimilated into the mental self-face representation. The strength of enfacement was not affected by the other’s facial expression, supporting an asymmetric relationship between processing of facial identity and facial expressions. Together, these studies indicate that multisensory representations of the body in the brain link low-level perceptual processes with the perception of emotional cues and body/face identity, and interact in complex ways depending upon contextual factors.

Envy: A Psychometric Refinement of the Construct

The noticeable differences in the theoretical and operative definitions of envy across studies and approaches have produced a fragmentary representation and understanding of the envious emotion. The present dissertation aimed to clarify the inherent nature of the construct of envy through the integration of findings from three independent studies. We focused on malicious envy, and investigated it from both a dispositional and an episodic perspective. Studies 1 and 2 investigated the dimensionality of envy as a stable individual characteristic and an episodic emotional state, respectively. In order to elicit episodic envy, a scenario-based experiment was conducted. Results indicated that, in both its dispositional and episodic facets, envy is a bidimensional construct composed by an inner-directed dimension of inferiority and helplessness, and an outer-directed dimension of feelings of anger and ill will. Moreover, findings from Study 1 allowed to establish boundaries between envy and competing constructs that have often been included in conceptualizations of envy. The psychometrically validated definition of envy provided by Studies 1 and 2 represents a valuable contribution to empirical research. Implications for envy research concern the promotion of a shared operationalization of envy in future studies, which will arguably facilitate the comparison of findings between studies and between approaches. Study 3 examined the mechanisms through which dispositional envy affects individuals’ social adjustment and psychological wellbeing. Findings revealed that the detrimental effects of envy on perceived social support and subjective well-being are mostly mediated by other personal characteristics, such as neuroticism and self-esteem. By reducing global self-esteem, the envious disposition may damage supportive social networks via antisocial direct and indirect behaviors that may arise from envy and that are likely to drive others away. On the other hand, by damaging both emotional stability and self-worth, dispositional envy leads to reduced subjective well-being. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.