The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Social Welfare and Behavioral Public Policies

In this work I discuss several key aspects of welfare economics and policy analysis and I propose two original contributions to the growing field of behavioral public policymaking. After providing a historical perspective of welfare economics and an overview of policy analysis processes in the introductory chapter, in chapter 2 I discuss a debated issue of policymaking, the choice of the social welfare function. I contribute to this debate by proposing an original methodological contribution based on the analysis of the quantitative relationship among different social welfare functional forms commonly used by policy analysts. In chapter 3 I then discuss a behavioral policy to contrast indirect tax evasion based on the use of lotteries. I show that the predictions of my model based on non-expected utility are consistent with observed, and so far unexplained, empirical evidence of the policy success. Finally, in chapter 4 I investigate by mean of a laboratory experiment the effects of social influence on the individual likelihood to engage in altruistic punishment. I show that bystanders’ decision to engage in punishment is influenced by the punishment behavior of their peers and I suggest ways to enact behavioral policies that exploit this finding.

Unlocking the Potential of Women in the Rural Development Process of Republic of Srpska: The Role of Extension Service

In Bosnia Herzegovina the development of clear policy objectives and endorsement of a long-term, coherent and mutual agricultural and rural development policy have also been affected by structural problems: a lack of reliable information on population and other relevant issues, the absence of an adequate land registry system and cadastre. Moreover in BiH the agricultural and rural sectors are characterized by many factors that have typically affected transition countries such as land fragmentation, lack of agricultural mechanization and outdated production technologies, and rural aging, high unemployment and out-migration. In such a framework the condition and role of women in rural areas suffered for the lack of gender disaggregated data and a consequent poor information that lead to the exclusion of gender related questions in the agenda of public institutions and to the absence of targeted policy interventions. The aim of the research is to investigate the role and condition of women in the rural development process of Republic of Srpska and to analyze the capacity of extension services to stimulate their empowerment. Specific research questions include the status of women in the rural areas of Republic of Srpska, the role of government in fostering the empowerment of rural women, and the role of the extension service in supporting rural women. The methodology - inspired by the case study method developed by R. Yin - is designed along the three specific research questions that are used as building blocks. Each of the three research questions is investigated with a combination of methodological tools - including surveys, experts interviews and focus groups - aimed to overcome the lack of data and knowledge that characterize the research objectives.

The secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States market evolution and product valuation

In this work we discuss the secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States of America. First, we give an overview of the life settlement market: how it came into existence, its growth prospects and the ethical issues it arises. Secondly, we discuss the characteristics of the different life insurance products present in the market and describe how life settlements are originated. Life settlement transactions tend to be long and complex transactions that require the involvement of a number of parties. Also, a direct investment into life insurance policies is fraught with a number of practical issues and entails risks that are not directly related to longevity. This may reduce the efficiency of a direct investment in physical policies. For these reasons, a synthetic longevity market has evolved. The number of parties involved in a synthetic longevity transaction is typically smaller and the broker-dealer transferring the longevity exposure will be retaining most or all of the risks a physical investment entails. Finally, we describe the main methods used in the market to evaluate life settlement investments and the role of life expectancy providers.

Lymphogranuloma venereum: a new face for an old disease. Our experience in the Bologna area.

Lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) is a sexual transmitted infection due to Clamydia trachomatis biovar L, endemic in part of Africa, Asia, South America and the Caribbean, but rare in industrialized countries up to 10 years ago. In 2003, a cluster of cases of LGV among men who have sex with men (MSM) was reported in Rotterdam. Since then, several reports of LGV have been reported in the largest cities in Europe, the United States and Australia. They have usually occurred with an anorectal syndrome. The purpose of this study is to summarize the expertise provided by the international literature about the new LGV outbreaks and to offer the first data collected on the presence of this disease in the Bologna area. In fact, we examine 5 cases of LGV proctitis diagnosed and treated at the Clinic of Sexually Transmitted Disease (STD) of the Dermatology Section at Sant’Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, Bologna. Particular attention will be paid to the laboratory method that allows identification and typing of the microorganism C. trachomatis serovar L1, L2, L3, leading to an etiologic diagnosis of certainty. The diagnosed cases of LGV will be described and compared with the international literature, trying to assess the risk factors, the most effective diagnostic and therapeutic procedure and the best approach to the patient.

Key issues in diagnosing and treating acute aortic syndromes: results from the metropolitan area of Bologna network

Background: Survival of patients with Acute Aortic Syndrome (AAS) may relate to the speed of diagnosis. Diagnostic delay is exacerbated by non classical presentations such as myocardial ischemia or acute heart failure (AHF). However little is known about clinical implications and pathophysiological mechanisms of Troponin T elevation and AHF in AAS. Methods and Results: Data were collected from a prospective metropolitan AAS registry (398 patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2013). Troponin T values (either standard or high sensitivity assay, HS) were available in 248 patients (60%) of the registry population; the overall frequency of troponin positivity was 28% (ranging from 16% to 54%, using standard or HS assay respectively, p = 0.001). Troponin positivity was associated with a twofold increased risk of long in-hospital diagnostic time (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.05-3.52, p = 0.03), but not with in-hospital mortality. The combination of positive troponin and ACS-like ECG abnormalities resulted in a significantly increased risk of inappropriate therapy due to a misdiagnosis of ACS (OR 2.48, 95% CI 1.12-5.54, p = 0.02). Patients with AHF were identified by the presence of dyspnea as presentation symptom or radiological signs of pulmonary congestion or cardiogenic shock. The overall frequency of AHF was 28 % (32% type A vs. 20% type B AAS, p = 0.01). AHF was due to a variety of pathophysiological mechanisms including cardiac tamponade (26%), aortic regurgitation (25%), myocardial ischemia (17%), hypertensive crisis (10%). AHF was associated with increased surgical delay and with increased risk of in-hospital death (adjusted OR 1.97 95% CI1.13-3.37,p=0.01). Conclusions: Troponin positivity (particularly HS) was a frequent finding in AAS. Abnormal troponin values were strongly associated with ACS-like ECG findings, in-hospital diagnostic delay, and inappropriate therapy. AHF was associated with increased surgical delay and was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality.