Ensemble forecasting in the Mediterranean sea

A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

Permutation classes, sorting algorithms, and lattice paths

A permutation is said to avoid a pattern if it does not contain any subsequence which is order-isomorphic to it. Donald Knuth, in the first volume of his celebrated book "The art of Computer Programming", observed that the permutations that can be computed (or, equivalently, sorted) by some particular data structures can be characterized in terms of pattern avoidance. In more recent years, the topic was reopened several times, while often in terms of sortable permutations rather than computable ones. The idea to sort permutations by using one of Knuth’s devices suggests to look for a deterministic procedure that decides, in linear time, if there exists a sequence of operations which is able to convert a given permutation into the identical one. In this thesis we show that, for the stack and the restricted deques, there exists an unique way to implement such a procedure. Moreover, we use these sorting procedures to create new sorting algorithms, and we prove some unexpected commutation properties between these procedures and the base step of bubblesort. We also show that the permutations that can be sorted by a combination of the base steps of bubblesort and its dual can be expressed, once again, in terms of pattern avoidance. In the final chapter we give an alternative proof of some enumerative results, in particular for the classes of permutations that can be sorted by the two restricted deques. It is well-known that the permutations that can be sorted through a restricted deque are counted by the Schrӧder numbers. In the thesis, we show how the deterministic sorting procedures yield a bijection between sortable permutations and Schrӧder paths.

Permutation-based stochastic ordering using pairwise comparisons

The topic of this work concerns nonparametric permutation-based methods aiming to find a ranking (stochastic ordering) of a given set of groups (populations), gathering together information from multiple variables under more than one experimental designs. The problem of ranking populations arises in several fields of science from the need of comparing G>2 given groups or treatments when the main goal is to find an order while taking into account several aspects. As it can be imagined, this problem is not only of theoretical interest but it also has a recognised relevance in several fields, such as industrial experiments or behavioural sciences, and this is reflected by the vast literature on the topic, although sometimes the problem is associated with different keywords such as: "stochastic ordering", "ranking", "construction of composite indices" etc., or even "ranking probabilities" outside of the strictly-speaking statistical literature. The properties of the proposed method are empirically evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study, where several aspects of interest are let to vary within a reasonable practical range. These aspects comprise: sample size, number of variables, number of groups, and distribution of noise/error. The flexibility of the approach lies mainly in the several available choices for the test-statistic and in the different types of experimental design that can be analysed. This render the method able to be tailored to the specific problem and the to nature of the data at hand. To perform the analyses an R package called SOUP (Stochastic Ordering Using Permutations) has been written and it is available on CRAN.