Kinematics of the Sicily and Calabria Subduction System from Elastic Block Modeling of GPS Data

We use data from about 700 GPS stations in the EuroMediterranen region to investigate the present-day behavior of the the Calabrian subduction zone within the Mediterranean-scale plates kinematics and to perform local scale studies about the strain accumulation on active structures. We focus attenction on the Messina Straits and Crati Valley faults where GPS data show extentional velocity gradients of ∼3 mm/yr and ∼2 mm/yr, respectively. We use dislocation model and a non-linear constrained optimization algorithm to invert for fault geometric parameters and slip-rates and evaluate the associated uncertainties adopting a bootstrap approach. Our analysis suggest the presence of two partially locked normal faults. To investigate the impact of elastic strain contributes from other nearby active faults onto the observed velocity gradient we use a block modeling approach. Our models show that the inferred slip-rates on the two analyzed structures are strongly impacted by the assumed locking width of the Calabrian subduction thrust. In order to frame the observed local deformation features within the present- day central Mediterranean kinematics we realyze a statistical analysis testing the indipendent motion (w.r.t. the African and Eurasias plates) of the Adriatic, Cal- abrian and Sicilian blocks. Our preferred model confirms a microplate like behaviour for all the investigated blocks. Within these kinematic boundary conditions we fur- ther investigate the Calabrian Slab interface geometry using a combined approach of block modeling and χ2ν statistic. Almost no information is obtained using only the horizontal GPS velocities that prove to be a not sufficient dataset for a multi-parametric inversion approach. Trying to stronger constrain the slab geometry we estimate the predicted vertical velocities performing suites of forward models of elastic dislocations varying the fault locking depth. Comparison with the observed field suggest a maximum resolved locking depth of 25 km.

Population ageing, longevity and migration: an overlapping generations approach

The silent demographic revolution characterizing the main industrialized countries is an unavoidable factor which has major economic, social, cultural and psychological implications. This thesis studies the main consequences of population ageing and the connections with the phenomenon of migration, The theoretical analysis is developed using Overlapping Generations Models (OLG). The thesis is divided in the following four chapters: 1) “A Model for Determining Consumption and Social Assistance Demand in Uncertainty Conditions”, focuses on the relation between demographic impact and social insurance and proposes the institution of a non selfsufficiency fund for the elderly. 2) "Population Ageing, Longevity and Health", analyzes the effects of health investment on intertemporal individual behaviour and capital accumulation. 3) "Population Ageing and the Nursing Flow", studies the consequences of migration in the nursing sector. 4) "Quality of Multiculturalism and Minorities' Assimilation", focuses on the problem of assimilation and integration of minorities.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

TNFRSF13B Genetic variability an anthropological - evolutionary approach to Biomedical Research

In the recent years TNFRSF13B coding variants have been implicated by clinical genetics studies in Common Variable Immunodeficiency (CVID), the most common clinically relevant primary immunodeficiency in individuals of European ancestry, but their functional effects in relation to the development of the disease have not been entirely established. To examine the potential contribution of such variants to CVID, the more comprehensive perspective of an evolutionary approach was applied in this study, underling the belief that evolutionary genetics methods can play a role in dissecting the origin, causes and diffusion of human diseases, representing a powerful tool also in human health research. For this purpose, TNFRSF13B coding region was sequenced in 451 healthy individuals belonging to 26 worldwide populations, in addition to 96 control, 77 CVID and 38 Selective IgA Deficiency (IgAD) individuals from Italy, leading to the first achievement of a global picture of TNFRSF13B nucleotide diversity and haplotype structure and making suggestion of its evolutionary history possible. A slow rate of evolution, within our species and when compared to the chimpanzee, low levels of genetic diversity geographical structure and the absence of recent population specific selective pressures were observed for the examined genomic region, suggesting that geographical distribution of its variability is more plausibly related to its involvement also in innate immunity rather than in adaptive immunity only. This, together with the extremely subtle disease/healthy samples differences observed, suggests that CVID might be more likely related to still unknown environmental and genetic factors, rather than to the nature of TNFRSF13B variants only.

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

A candidate gene approach to identify DNA markers associated with meat quality and production traits: investigation of several cathepsin genes in Italian heavy pigs.

The cathepsin enzymes represent an important family of lysosomal proteinases with a broad spectrum of functions in many, if not in all, tissues and cell types. In addition to their primary role during the normal protein turnover, they possess highly specific proteolytic activities, including antigen processing in the immune response and a direct role in the development of obesity and tumours. In pigs, the involvement of cathepsin enzymes in proteolytic processes have important effects during the conversion of muscle to meat, due to their influence on meat texture and sensory characteristics, mainly in seasoned products. Their contribution is fundamental in flavour development of dry-curing hams. However, several authors have demonstrated that high cathepsin activity, in particular of cathepsin B, is correlated to defects of these products, such as an excessive meat softness together with abnormal free tyrosine content, astringent or metallic aftertastes and formation of a white film on the cut surface. Thus, investigation of their genetic variability could be useful to identify DNA markers associated with these dry cured hams parameters, but also with meat quality, production and carcass traits in Italian heavy pigs. Unfortunately, no association has been found between cathepsin markers and meat quality traits so far, in particular with cathepsin B activity, suggesting that other genes, besides these, affect meat quality parameters. Nevertheless, significant associations were observed with several carcass and production traits in pigs. A recent study has demonstrated that different single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) localized in cathepsin D (CTSD), F (CTSF), H and Z genes were highly associated with growth, fat deposition and production traits in an Italian Large White pig population. The aim of this thesis was to confirm some of these results in other pig populations and identify new cathepsin markers in order to evaluate their effects on cathepsin activity and other production traits. Furthermore, starting from the data obtained in previous studies on CTSD gene, we also analyzed the known polymorphism located in the insulin-like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A). This marker is considered the causative mutation for the quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting muscle mass and fat deposition in pigs. Since IGF2 maps very close to CTSD on porcine chromosome (SSC) 2, we wanted to clarify if the effects of the CTSD marker were due to linkage disequilibrium with the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A mutation or not. In the first chapter, we reported the results from these two SSC2 gene markers. First of all, we evaluated the effects of the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A polymorphism in the Italian Large White breed, for which no previous studies have analysed this marker. Highly significant associations were identified with all estimated breeding values for production and carcass traits (P<0.00001), while no effects were observed for meat quality traits. Instead, the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A mutation did not show any associations with the analyzed traits in the Italian Duroc pigs, probably due to the low level of variability at this polymorphic site for this breed. In the same Duroc pig population, significant associations were obtained for the CTSD marker for all production and carcass traits (P < 0.001), after excluding possible confounding effects of the IGF2 mutation. The effects of the CTSD g.70G>A polymorphism were also confirmed in a group of Italian Large White pigs homozygous for the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G allele G (IGF2 intron3-g.3072GG) and by haplotype analysis between the markers of the two considered genes. Taken together, all these data indicated that the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A mutation is not the only polymorphism affecting fatness and muscle deposition in pigs. In the second chapter, we reported the analysis of two new SNPs identified in cathepsin L (CTSL) and cathepsin S (CTSS) genes and the association results with meat quality parameters (including cathepsin B activity) and several production traits in an Italian Large White pig population. Allele frequencies of these two markers were evaluated in 7 different pig breeds. Furthermore, we mapped using a radiation hybrid panel the CTSS gene on SSC4. Association studies with several production traits, carried out in 268 Italian Large White pigs, indicated positive effects of the CTSL polymorphism on average daily gain, weight of lean cuts and backfat thickness (P<0.05). The results for these latter traits were also confirmed using a selective genotype approach in other Italian Large White pigs (P<0.01). In the 268 pig group, the CTSS polymorphism was associated with feed:gain ratio and average daily gain (P<0.05). Instead, no association was observed between the analysed markers and meat quality parameters. Finally, we wanted to verify if the positive results obtained for the cathepsin L and S markers and for other previous identified SNPs (cathepsin F, cathepsin Z and their inhibitor cystatin B) were confirmed in the Italian Duroc pig breed (third chapter). We analysed them in two groups of Duroc pigs: the first group was made of 218 performance-tested pigs not selected by any phenotypic criteria, the second group was made of 100 Italian Duroc pigs extreme and divergent for visible intermuscular fat trait. In the first group, the CTSL polymorphism was associated with weight of lean cuts (P<0.05), while suggestive associations were obtained for average daily gain and backfat thickness (P<0.10). Allele frequencies of the CTSL gene marker also differed positively among the visible intermuscular extreme tails. Instead, no positive effects were observed for the other DNA markers on the analysed traits. In conclusion, in agreement with the present data and for the biological role of these enzymes, the porcine CTSD and CTSL markers: a) may have a direct effect in the biological mechanisms involved in determining fat and lean meat content in pigs, or b) these markers could be very close to the putative functional mutation(s) present in other genes. These findings have important practical applications, in particular the CTSD and CTSL mutations could be applied in a marker assisted selection (MAS) both in the Italian Large White and Italian Duroc breeds. Marker assisted selection could also increase in efficiency by adding information from the cathepsin S genotype, but only in the Italian Large White breed.

Wide-scale population genomics of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) inferred by novel high-throughput technology

My PhD project was focused on Atlantic bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, a fishery resource overexploited in the last decades. For a better management of stocks, it was necessary to improve scientific knowledge of this species and to develop novel tools to avoid collapse of this important commercial resource. To do this, we used new high throughput sequencing technologies, as Next Generation Sequencing (NGS), and markers linked to expressed genes, as SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms). In this work we applied a combined approach: transcriptomic resources were used to build cDNA libreries from mRNA isolated by muscle, and genomic resources allowed to create a reference backbone for this species lacking of reference genome. All cDNA reads, obtained from mRNA, were mapped against this genome and, employing several bioinformatics tools and different restricted parameters, we achieved a set of contigs to detect SNPs. Once a final panel of 384 SNPs was developed, following the selection criteria, it was genotyped in 960 individuals of Atlantic bluefin tuna, including all size/age classes, from larvae to adults, collected from the entire range of the species. The analysis of obtained data was aimed to evaluate the genetic diversity and the population structure of Thunnus thynnus. We detect a low but significant signal of genetic differentiation among spawning samples, that can suggest the presence of three genetically separate reproduction areas. The adult samples resulted instead genetically undifferentiated between them and from the spawning populations, indicating a presence of panmictic population of adult bluefin tuna in the Mediterranean Sea, without different meta populations.

Agrofood chain analysis: production, commercialisation and consumption of healthy food for population at risk of poverty in Italy

Italy registers a fast increase of low income population. Academics and policy makers consider income inequalities as a key determinant for low or inadequate healthy food consumption. Thus the objective is to understand how to overcome the agrofood chain barriers towards healthy food production, commercialisation and consumption for population at risk of poverty (ROP) in Italy. The study adopts a market oriented food chain approach, focusing the research ambit on ROP consumers, processing industries and retailers. The empirical investigation adopts a qualitative methodology with an explorative approach. The actors are investigated through 4 focus groups for consumers and carrying out 27 face to face semi-structured interviews for industries and retailers’ representatives. The results achieved provide the perceptions of each actor integrated into an overall chain approach. The analysis shows that all agrofood actors lack of an adequate level of knowledge towards healthy food definition. Food industries and retailers also show poor awareness about ROP consumers’ segment. In addition they perceive that the high costs for producing healthy food conflict with the low economic performances expected from ROP consumers’ segment. These aspects induce a scarce interest in investing on commercialisation strategies for healthy food for ROP consumers. Further ROP consumers show other notable barriers to adopt healthy diets caused, among others, by a personal strong negative attitude and lack of motivation. The personal barriers are also negatively influenced by several external socio-economic factors. The solutions to overcome the barriers shall rely on the improvement of the agrofood chain internal relations to identify successful strategies for increasing interest on low cost healthy food. In particular the focus should be on improved collaboration on innovation adoption and marketing strategies, considering ROP consumers’ preferences and needs. An external political intervention is instead necessary to fill the knowledge and regulations’ gaps on healthy food issues.

Maternal Smoking Impact on the Delivery Cost: a population-based study in the Emilia-Romagna region

This doctoral thesis is devoted to the study of the causal effects of the maternal smoking on the delivery cost. The interest of economic consequences of smoking in pregnancy have been studied fairly extensively in the USA, and very little is known in European context. To identify the causal relation between different maternal smoking status and the delivery cost in the Emilia-Romagna region two distinct methods were used. The first - geometric multidimensional - is mainly based on the multivariate approach and involves computing and testing the global imbalance, classifying cases in order to generate well-matched comparison groups, and then computing treatment effects. The second - structural modelling - refers to a general methodological account of model-building and model-testing. The main idea of this approach is to decompose the global mechanism into sub-mechanisms though a recursive decomposition of a multivariate distribution.

Data management and data analysis in the large European projects GEHA (GEnetics of Healthy Aging) and NU-AGE (NUtrition and AGEing): a bioinformatic approach

The aging process is characterized by the progressive fitness decline experienced at all the levels of physiological organization, from single molecules up to the whole organism. Studies confirmed inflammaging, a chronic low-level inflammation, as a deeply intertwined partner of the aging process, which may provide the “common soil” upon which age-related diseases develop and flourish. Thus, albeit inflammation per se represents a physiological process, it can rapidly become detrimental if it goes out of control causing an excess of local and systemic inflammatory response, a striking risk factor for the elderly population. Developing interventions to counteract the establishment of this state is thus a top priority. Diet, among other factors, represents a good candidate to regulate inflammation. Building on top of this consideration, the EU project NU-AGE is now trying to assess if a Mediterranean diet, fortified for the elderly population needs, may help in modulating inflammaging. To do so, NU-AGE enrolled a total of 1250 subjects, half of which followed a 1-year long diet, and characterized them by mean of the most advanced –omics and non –omics analyses. The aim of this thesis was the development of a solid data management pipeline able to efficiently cope with the results of these assays, which are now flowing inside a centralized database, ready to be used to test the most disparate scientific hypotheses. At the same time, the work hereby described encompasses the data analysis of the GEHA project, which was focused on identifying the genetic determinants of longevity, with a particular focus on developing and applying a method for detecting epistatic interactions in human mtDNA. Eventually, in an effort to propel the adoption of NGS technologies in everyday pipeline, we developed a NGS variant calling pipeline devoted to solve all the sequencing-related issues of the mtDNA.

Methodological approaches to estimate human population exposure to chemical substances

The public awareness that chemical substances are present ubiquitously in the environment, can be assumed through the diet and can exhibit various health effects, is very high in Europe and Italy. National and international institutions are called to provide figures on the magnitude, frequency, and duration of the population exposure to chemicals, including both natural or anthropogenic substances, voluntarily added to consumers’ good or accidentally entering the production chains. This thesis focuses broadly on how human population exposure to chemicals can be estimated, with particular attention to the methodological approaches and specific focus on dietary exposure assessment and biomonitoring. From the results obtained in the different studies collected in this thesis, it has been pointed out that when selecting the approach to use for the estimate of the exposure to chemicals, several different aspects must be taken into account: the nature of the chemical substance, the population of interest, clarify if the objective is to assess chronic or acute exposure, and finally, take into account the quality and quantity of data available in order to specify and quantify the uncertainty of the estimate.

Predictability in Social Science, The statistical mechanics approach.

The subject of this work concerns the study of the immigration phenomenon, with emphasis on the aspects related to the integration of an immigrant population in a hosting one. Aim of this work is to show the forecasting ability of a recent finding where the behavior of integration quantifiers was analyzed and investigated with a mathematical model of statistical physics origins (a generalization of the monomer dimer model). After providing a detailed literature review of the model, we show that not only such a model is able to identify the social mechanism that drives a particular integration process, but it also provides correct forecast. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.