Development of SuperEnsemble Techniques for the Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System

This research activity studied how the uncertainties are concerned and interrelated through the multi-model approach, since it seems to be the bigger challenge of ocean and weather forecasting. Moreover, we tried to reduce model error throughout the superensemble approach. In order to provide this aim, we created different dataset and by means of proper algorithms we obtained the superensamble estimate. We studied the sensitivity of this algorithm in function of its characteristics parameters. Clearly, it is not possible to evaluate a reasonable estimation of the error neglecting the importance of the grid size of ocean model, for the large amount of all the sub grid-phenomena embedded in space discretizations that can be only roughly parametrized instead of an explicit evaluation. For this reason we also developed a high resolution model, in order to calculate for the first time the impact of grid resolution on model error.

A dynamical system approach to data assimilation in chaotic models

The Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) was introduced by Trevisan and Uboldi in 2004, and developed by Trevisan, Uboldi and Carrassi, to minimize the analysis and forecast errors by exploiting the flow-dependent instabilities of the forecast-analysis cycle system, which may be thought of as a system forced by observations. In the AUS scheme the assimilation is obtained by confining the analysis increment in the unstable subspace of the forecast-analysis cycle system so that it will have the same structure of the dominant instabilities of the system. The unstable subspace is estimated by Breeding on the Data Assimilation System (BDAS). AUS- BDAS has already been tested in realistic models and observational configurations, including a Quasi-Geostrophicmodel and a high dimensional, primitive equation ocean model; the experiments include both fixed and“adaptive”observations. In these contexts, the AUS-BDAS approach greatly reduces the analysis error, with reasonable computational costs for data assimilation with respect, for example, to a prohibitive full Extended Kalman Filter. This is a follow-up study in which we revisit the AUS-BDAS approach in the more basic, highly nonlinear Lorenz 1963 convective model. We run observation system simulation experiments in a perfect model setting, and with two types of model error as well: random and systematic. In the different configurations examined, and in a perfect model setting, AUS once again shows better efficiency than other advanced data assimilation schemes. In the present study, we develop an iterative scheme that leads to a significant improvement of the overall assimilation performance with respect also to standard AUS. In particular, it boosts the efficiency of regime’s changes tracking, with a low computational cost. Other data assimilation schemes need estimates of ad hoc parameters, which have to be tuned for the specific model at hand. In Numerical Weather Prediction models, tuning of parameters — and in particular an estimate of the model error covariance matrix — may turn out to be quite difficult. Our proposed approach, instead, may be easier to implement in operational models.

Bio-physical interactions and feedbacks in a global climate model

This PhD thesis addresses the topic of large-scale interactions between climate and marine biogeochemistry. To this end, centennial simulations are performed under present and projected future climate conditions with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model containing a complex marine biogeochemistry model. The role of marine biogeochemistry in the climate system is first investigated. Phytoplankton solar radiation absorption in the upper ocean enhances sea surface temperatures and upper ocean stratification. The associated increase in ocean latent heat losses raises atmospheric temperatures and water vapor. Atmospheric circulation is modified at tropical and extratropical latitudes with impacts on precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and ocean circulation which cause upper-ocean heat content to decrease at tropical latitudes and to increase at middle latitudes. Marine biogeochemistry is tightly related to physical climate variability, which may vary in response to internal natural dynamics or to external forcing such as anthropogenic carbon emissions. Wind changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic, affect ocean properties by means of momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes. Changes in upper ocean temperature and mixing impact the spatial structure and seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton through light and nutrient limitations. These changes affect the capability of the North Atlantic Ocean of absorbing atmospheric CO2 and of fixing it inside sinking particulate organic matter. Low-frequency NAO phases determine a delayed response of ocean circulation, temperature and salinity, which in turn affects stratification and marine biogeochemistry. In 20th and 21st century simulations natural wind fluctuations in the North Pacific, related to the two dominant modes of atmospheric variability, affect the spatial structure and the magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom through changes in upper-ocean temperature and mixing. The impacts of human-induced emissions in the 21st century are generally larger than natural climate fluctuations, with the phytoplankton spring bloom starting one month earlier than in the 20th century and with ~50% lower magnitude. This PhD thesis advances the knowledge of bio-physical interactions within the global climate, highlighting the intrinsic coupling between physical climate and biosphere, and providing a framework on which future studies of Earth System change can be built on.

Magma injections and destabilization of basaltic volcanoes: a numerical study. Application to La Reunion (Indian ocean, France) and Stromboli (Tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

Most basaltic volcanoes are affected by recurrent lateral instabilities during their evolution. Numerous factors have been shown to be involved in the process of flank destabilization occurring over long periods of time or by instantaneous failures. However, the role of these factors on the mechanical behaviour and stability of volcanic edifices is poorly-constrained as lateral failure usually results from the combined effects of several parameters. Our study focuses on the morphological and structural comparison of two end-member basaltic systems, La Reunion (Indian ocean, France) and Stromboli (southern Tyrrhenian sea, Italy). We showed that despite major differences on their volumes and geodynamic settings, both systems present some similarities as they are characterized by an intense intrusive activity along well-developed rift zones and recurrent phenomena of flank collapse during their evolution. Among the factors of instability, the examples of la Reunion and Stromboli evidence the major contribution of intrusive complexes to volcano growth and destruction as attested by field observations and the monitoring of these active volcanoes. Classical models consider the relationship between vertical intrusions of magma and flank movements along a preexisting sliding surface. A set of published and new field data from Piton des Neiges volcano (La Reunion) allowed us to recognize the role of subhorizontal intrusions in the process of flank instability and to characterize the geometry of both subvertical and subhorizontal intrusions within basaltic edifices. This study compares the results of numerical modelling of the displacements associated with high-angle and low-angle intrusions within basaltic volcanoes. We use a Mixed Boundary Element Method to investigate the mechanical response of an edifice to the injection of magmatic intrusions in different stress fields. Our results indicate that the anisotropy of the stress field favours the slip along the intrusions due to cointrusive shear stress, generating flank-scale displacements of the edifice, especially in the case of subhorizontal intrusions, capable of triggering large-scale flank collapses on basaltic volcanoes. Applications of our theoretical results to real cases of flank displacements on basaltic volcanoes (such as the 2007 eruptive crisis at La Reunion and Stromboli) revealed that the previous model of subvertical intrusions-related collapse is a likely mechanism affecting small-scale steeply-sloping basaltic volcanoes like Stromboli. Furthermore, our field study combined to modelling results confirms the importance of shallow-dipping intrusions in the morpho-structural evolution of large gently-sloping basaltic volcanoes like Piton de la Fournaise, Etna and Kilauea, with particular regards to flank instability, which can cause catastrophic tsunamis.