A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

The rupture process of recent tsunamigenic earthquakes by geophysical data inversion

Subduction zones are the favorite places to generate tsunamigenic earthquakes, where friction between oceanic and continental plates causes the occurrence of a strong seismicity. The topics and the methodologies discussed in this thesis are focussed to the understanding of the rupture process of the seismic sources of great earthquakes that generate tsunamis. The tsunamigenesis is controlled by several kinematical characteristic of the parent earthquake, as the focal mechanism, the depth of the rupture, the slip distribution along the fault area and by the mechanical properties of the source zone. Each of these factors plays a fundamental role in the tsunami generation. Therefore, inferring the source parameters of tsunamigenic earthquakes is crucial to understand the generation of the consequent tsunami and so to mitigate the risk along the coasts. The typical way to proceed when we want to gather information regarding the source process is to have recourse to the inversion of geophysical data that are available. Tsunami data, moreover, are useful to constrain the portion of the fault area that extends offshore, generally close to the trench that, on the contrary, other kinds of data are not able to constrain. In this thesis I have discussed the rupture process of some recent tsunamigenic events, as inferred by means of an inverse method. I have presented the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake (Mw 8.1). In this study the slip distribution on the fault has been inferred by inverting tsunami waveform, GPS, and bottom-pressure data. The joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data has revealed a much better constrain for the slip distribution on the fault rather than the separate inversions of single datasets. Then we have studied the earthquake occurred on 2007 in southern Sumatra (Mw 8.4). By inverting several tsunami waveforms, both in the near and in the far field, we have determined the slip distribution and the mean rupture velocity along the causative fault. Since the largest patch of slip was concentrated on the deepest part of the fault, this is the likely reason for the small tsunami waves that followed the earthquake, pointing out how much the depth of the rupture plays a crucial role in controlling the tsunamigenesis. Finally, we have presented a new rupture model for the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.2). We have performed the joint inversion of tsunami waveform, GPS and satellite altimetry data, to infer the slip distribution, the slip direction, and the rupture velocity on the fault. Furthermore, in this work we have presented a novel method to estimate, in a self-consistent way, the average rigidity of the source zone. The estimation of the source zone rigidity is important since it may play a significant role in the tsunami generation and, particularly for slow earthquakes, a low rigidity value is sometimes necessary to explain how a relatively low seismic moment earthquake may generate significant tsunamis; this latter point may be relevant for explaining the mechanics of the tsunami earthquakes, one of the open issues in present day seismology. The investigation of these tsunamigenic earthquakes has underlined the importance to use a joint inversion of different geophysical data to determine the rupture characteristics. The results shown here have important implications for the implementation of new tsunami warning systems – particularly in the near-field – the improvement of the current ones, and furthermore for the planning of the inundation maps for tsunami-hazard assessment along the coastal area.

Biomass Gasification - Process analysis and dimensioning aspects for downdraft units and gas cleaning lines

In such territories where food production is mostly scattered in several small / medium size or even domestic farms, a lot of heterogeneous residues are produced yearly, since farmers usually carry out different activities in their properties. The amount and composition of farm residues, therefore, widely change during year, according to the single production process periodically achieved. Coupling high efficiency micro-cogeneration energy units with easy handling biomass conversion equipments, suitable to treat different materials, would provide many important advantages to the farmers and to the community as well, so that the increase in feedstock flexibility of gasification units is nowadays seen as a further paramount step towards their wide spreading in rural areas and as a real necessity for their utilization at small scale. Two main research topics were thought to be of main concern at this purpose, and they were therefore discussed in this work: the investigation of fuels properties impact on gasification process development and the technical feasibility of small scale gasification units integration with cogeneration systems. According to these two main aspects, the present work was thus divided in two main parts. The first one is focused on the biomass gasification process, that was investigated in its theoretical aspects and then analytically modelled in order to simulate thermo-chemical conversion of different biomass fuels, such as wood (park waste wood and softwood), wheat straw, sewage sludge and refuse derived fuels. The main idea is to correlate the results of reactor design procedures with the physical properties of biomasses and the corresponding working conditions of gasifiers (temperature profile, above all), in order to point out the main differences which prevent the use of the same conversion unit for different materials. At this scope, a gasification kinetic free model was initially developed in Excel sheets, considering different values of air to biomass ratio and the downdraft gasification technology as particular examined application. The differences in syngas production and working conditions (process temperatures, above all) among the considered fuels were tried to be connected to some biomass properties, such elementary composition, ash and water contents. The novelty of this analytical approach was the use of kinetic constants ratio in order to determine oxygen distribution among the different oxidation reactions (regarding volatile matter only) while equilibrium of water gas shift reaction was considered in gasification zone, by which the energy and mass balances involved in the process algorithm were linked together, as well. Moreover, the main advantage of this analytical tool is the easiness by which the input data corresponding to the particular biomass materials can be inserted into the model, so that a rapid evaluation on their own thermo-chemical conversion properties is possible to be obtained, mainly based on their chemical composition A good conformity of the model results with the other literature and experimental data was detected for almost all the considered materials (except for refuse derived fuels, because of their unfitting chemical composition with the model assumptions). Successively, a dimensioning procedure for open core downdraft gasifiers was set up, by the analysis on the fundamental thermo-physical and thermo-chemical mechanisms which are supposed to regulate the main solid conversion steps involved in the gasification process. Gasification units were schematically subdivided in four reaction zones, respectively corresponding to biomass heating, solids drying, pyrolysis and char gasification processes, and the time required for the full development of each of these steps was correlated to the kinetics rates (for pyrolysis and char gasification processes only) and to the heat and mass transfer phenomena from gas to solid phase. On the basis of this analysis and according to the kinetic free model results and biomass physical properties (particles size, above all) it was achieved that for all the considered materials char gasification step is kinetically limited and therefore temperature is the main working parameter controlling this step. Solids drying is mainly regulated by heat transfer from bulk gas to the inner layers of particles and the corresponding time especially depends on particle size. Biomass heating is almost totally achieved by the radiative heat transfer from the hot walls of reactor to the bed of material. For pyrolysis, instead, working temperature, particles size and the same nature of biomass (through its own pyrolysis heat) have all comparable weights on the process development, so that the corresponding time can be differently depending on one of these factors according to the particular fuel is gasified and the particular conditions are established inside the gasifier. The same analysis also led to the estimation of reaction zone volumes for each biomass fuel, so as a comparison among the dimensions of the differently fed gasification units was finally accomplished. Each biomass material showed a different volumes distribution, so that any dimensioned gasification unit does not seem to be suitable for more than one biomass species. Nevertheless, since reactors diameters were found out quite similar for all the examined materials, it could be envisaged to design a single units for all of them by adopting the largest diameter and by combining together the maximum heights of each reaction zone, as they were calculated for the different biomasses. A total height of gasifier as around 2400mm would be obtained in this case. Besides, by arranging air injecting nozzles at different levels along the reactor, gasification zone could be properly set up according to the particular material is in turn gasified. Finally, since gasification and pyrolysis times were found to considerably change according to even short temperature variations, it could be also envisaged to regulate air feeding rate for each gasified material (which process temperatures depend on), so as the available reactor volumes would be suitable for the complete development of solid conversion in each case, without even changing fluid dynamics behaviour of the unit as well as air/biomass ratio in noticeable measure. The second part of this work dealt with the gas cleaning systems to be adopted downstream the gasifiers in order to run high efficiency CHP units (i.e. internal engines and micro-turbines). Especially in the case multi–fuel gasifiers are assumed to be used, weightier gas cleaning lines need to be envisaged in order to reach the standard gas quality degree required to fuel cogeneration units. Indeed, as the more heterogeneous feed to the gasification unit, several contaminant species can simultaneously be present in the exit gas stream and, as a consequence, suitable gas cleaning systems have to be designed. In this work, an overall study on gas cleaning lines assessment is carried out. Differently from the other research efforts carried out in the same field, the main scope is to define general arrangements for gas cleaning lines suitable to remove several contaminants from the gas stream, independently on the feedstock material and the energy plant size The gas contaminant species taken into account in this analysis were: particulate, tars, sulphur (in H2S form), alkali metals, nitrogen (in NH3 form) and acid gases (in HCl form). For each of these species, alternative cleaning devices were designed according to three different plant sizes, respectively corresponding with 8Nm3/h, 125Nm3/h and 350Nm3/h gas flows. Their performances were examined on the basis of their optimal working conditions (efficiency, temperature and pressure drops, above all) and their own consumption of energy and materials. Successively, the designed units were combined together in different overall gas cleaning line arrangements, paths, by following some technical constraints which were mainly determined from the same performance analysis on the cleaning units and from the presumable synergic effects by contaminants on the right working of some of them (filters clogging, catalysts deactivation, etc.). One of the main issues to be stated in paths design accomplishment was the tars removal from the gas stream, preventing filters plugging and/or line pipes clogging At this scope, a catalytic tars cracking unit was envisaged as the only solution to be adopted, and, therefore, a catalytic material which is able to work at relatively low temperatures was chosen. Nevertheless, a rapid drop in tars cracking efficiency was also estimated for this same material, so that an high frequency of catalysts regeneration and a consequent relevant air consumption for this operation were calculated in all of the cases. Other difficulties had to be overcome in the abatement of alkali metals, which condense at temperatures lower than tars, but they also need to be removed in the first sections of gas cleaning line in order to avoid corrosion of materials. In this case a dry scrubber technology was envisaged, by using the same fine particles filter units and by choosing for them corrosion resistant materials, like ceramic ones. Besides these two solutions which seem to be unavoidable in gas cleaning line design, high temperature gas cleaning lines were not possible to be achieved for the two larger plant sizes, as well. Indeed, as the use of temperature control devices was precluded in the adopted design procedure, ammonia partial oxidation units (as the only considered methods for the abatement of ammonia at high temperature) were not suitable for the large scale units, because of the high increase of reactors temperature by the exothermic reactions involved in the process. In spite of these limitations, yet, overall arrangements for each considered plant size were finally designed, so that the possibility to clean the gas up to the required standard degree was technically demonstrated, even in the case several contaminants are simultaneously present in the gas stream. Moreover, all the possible paths defined for the different plant sizes were compared each others on the basis of some defined operational parameters, among which total pressure drops, total energy losses, number of units and secondary materials consumption. On the basis of this analysis, dry gas cleaning methods proved preferable to the ones including water scrubber technology in al of the cases, especially because of the high water consumption provided by water scrubber units in ammonia adsorption process. This result is yet connected to the possibility to use activated carbon units for ammonia removal and Nahcolite adsorber for chloride acid. The very high efficiency of this latter material is also remarkable. Finally, as an estimation of the overall energy loss pertaining the gas cleaning process, the total enthalpy losses estimated for the three plant sizes were compared with the respective gas streams energy contents, these latter obtained on the basis of low heating value of gas only. This overall study on gas cleaning systems is thus proposed as an analytical tool by which different gas cleaning line configurations can be evaluated, according to the particular practical application they are adopted for and the size of cogeneration unit they are connected to.

Investigating the role of single point mutations in the human proteome: a computational study

In the post genomic era with the massive production of biological data the understanding of factors affecting protein stability is one of the most important and challenging tasks for highlighting the role of mutations in relation to human maladies. The problem is at the basis of what is referred to as molecular medicine with the underlying idea that pathologies can be detailed at a molecular level. To this purpose scientific efforts focus on characterising mutations that hamper protein functions and by these affect biological processes at the basis of cell physiology. New techniques have been developed with the aim of detailing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at large in all the human chromosomes and by this information in specific databases are exponentially increasing. Eventually mutations that can be found at the DNA level, when occurring in transcribed regions may then lead to mutated proteins and this can be a serious medical problem, largely affecting the phenotype. Bioinformatics tools are urgently needed to cope with the flood of genomic data stored in database and in order to analyse the role of SNPs at the protein level. In principle several experimental and theoretical observations are suggesting that protein stability in the solvent-protein space is responsible of the correct protein functioning. Then mutations that are found disease related during DNA analysis are often assumed to perturb protein stability as well. However so far no extensive analysis at the proteome level has investigated whether this is the case. Also computationally methods have been developed to infer whether a mutation is disease related and independently whether it affects protein stability. Therefore whether the perturbation of protein stability is related to what it is routinely referred to as a disease is still a big question mark. In this work we have tried for the first time to explore the relation among mutations at the protein level and their relevance to diseases with a large-scale computational study of the data from different databases. To this aim in the first part of the thesis for each mutation type we have derived two probabilistic indices (for 141 out of 150 possible SNPs): the perturbing index (Pp), which indicates the probability that a given mutation effects protein stability considering all the “in vitro” thermodynamic data available and the disease index (Pd), which indicates the probability of a mutation to be disease related, given all the mutations that have been clinically associated so far. We find with a robust statistics that the two indexes correlate with the exception of all the mutations that are somatic cancer related. By this each mutation of the 150 can be coded by two values that allow a direct comparison with data base information. Furthermore we also implement computational methods that starting from the protein structure is suited to predict the effect of a mutation on protein stability and find that overpasses a set of other predictors performing the same task. The predictor is based on support vector machines and takes as input protein tertiary structures. We show that the predicted data well correlate with the data from the databases. All our efforts therefore add to the SNP annotation process and more importantly found the relationship among protein stability perturbation and the human variome leading to the diseasome.

Left orthotopic lung transplant in rats: the learning process.

INTRODUCTION: The orthotopic left lung transplantation model in rats has been developed to answer a variety of scientific questions in transplant immunology and in the related fields of respiratory diseases. However, its widespread use has been hampered by the complexity of the procedure. AIM OF THE RESEARCH: Our purpose is to provide a detailed description of the procedure of this technique, including the complications and difficulties from the very first microsurgical step until the ultimate successful completion of the transplant procedure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The transplant procedures were performed by two collaborating transplant surgeons with microsurgical and thoracic surgery skills. A total of 150 left lung transplants in rats were performed. Twenty-seven syngeneic (Lewis to Lewis) and 123 allogeneic (Brown-Norway to Lewis) lung transplants were performed using the cuff technique. RESULTS: In first 50 transplant procedures, post-transplant survival rate was 74% of which 54% reached the end-point of 3 or 7 days post-transplant; whole complication rate was 66%. In the subsequent 50 transplant surgeries (from 51 to 100) post-transplant survival rate increased to 88% of which 56% reached the end-point; whole complication rate was 32 %. In the final 50 transplants (from 101 to 150) post-transplant survival rate was confirmed to be 88% of which 74% reached the end-point; whole complication rate was again 32 %. CONCLUSIONS: One hundred-fifty transplants can represent a reasonable number of procedures to obtain a satisfactory surgical outcome. Training period with simpler animal models is mandatory to develop anesthesiological and microsurgical skills required for successfully develop this model. The collaboration between at least two microsurgeons is mandatory to perform all the simultaneous procedures required for completing the transplant surgery.

Additive Manufacturing by LPBF and WAAM of metals: correlation between production process, microstructure and mechanical properties

In the most recent years, Additive Manufacturing (AM) has drawn the attention of both academic research and industry, as it might deeply change and improve several industrial sectors. From the material point of view, AM results in a peculiar microstructure that strictly depends on the conditions of the additive process and directly affects mechanical properties. The present PhD research project aimed at investigating the process-microstructure-properties relationship of additively manufactured metal components. Two technologies belonging to the AM family were considered: Laser-based Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) and Wire-and-Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM). The experimental activity was carried out on different metals of industrial interest: a CoCrMo biomedical alloy and an AlSi7Mg0.6 alloy processed by LPBF, an AlMg4.5Mn alloy and an AISI 304L austenitic stainless steel processed by WAAM. In case of LPBF, great attention was paid to the influence that feedstock material and process parameters exert on hardness, morphological and microstructural features of the produced samples. The analyses, targeted at minimizing microstructural defects, lead to process optimization. For heat-treatable LPBF alloys, innovative post-process heat treatments, tailored on the peculiar hierarchical microstructure induced by LPBF, were developed and deeply investigated. Main mechanical properties of as-built and heat-treated alloys were assessed and they were well-correlated to the specific LPBF microstructure. Results showed that, if properly optimized, samples exhibit a good trade-off between strength and ductility yet in the as-built condition. However, tailored heat treatments succeeded in improving the overall performance of the LPBF alloys. Characterization of WAAM alloys, instead, evidenced the microstructural and mechanical anisotropy typical of AM metals. Experiments revealed also an outstanding anisotropy in the elastic modulus of the austenitic stainless-steel that, along with other mechanical properties, was explained on the basis of microstructural analyses.

Chemical looping reforming from methane to syngas: investigation on CeO2 oxygen carrier lifetime and optimal process times

Emissions of CO2 are constantly growing since the beginning of industrial era. Interruption of the production of major emitters sectors (energy and agriculture) is not a viable way and reducing all the emission through carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not economically viable and little publicly accepted, therefore, it becomes fundamentals to take actions like retrofitting already developed infrastructure employing cleanest resources, modify the actual processes limiting the emissions, and reduce the emissions already present through direct air capture. The present thesis will deeply discuss the aspects mentioned in regard to syngas and hydrogen production since they have a central role in the market of energy and chemicals. Among the strategies discussed, greater emphasis is given to the application of looping technologies and to direct air capture processes, as they have been the main point of this work. Particularly, chemical looping methane reforming to syngas was studied with Aspen Plus thermodynamic simulations, thermogravimetric analysis characterization (TGA) and testing in a fixed bed reactor. The process was studied cyclically exploiting the redox properties of a Ce-based oxide oxygen carrier synthetized with a simple forming procedure. The two steps of the looping cycles were studied isothermally at 900 °C and 950° C with a mixture of 10 %CH4 in N2 and of 3% O2 in N2, for carrier reduction and oxidation, respectively. During the stay abroad, in collaboration with the EHT of Zurich, a CO2 capture process in presence of amine solid sorbents was investigated, studying the difference in the performance achievable with the use of contactors of different geometry. The process was studied at two concentrations (382 ppm CO2 in N2 and 5.62% CO2 in N2) and at different flow rates, to understand the dynamics of the adsorption process and to define the mass transfer limiting step.