A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

"Daring to be foolish". L'opera poetica di Robert Kroetsch dal 2001 al 2010

La presente dissertazione si pone come oggetto di analisi la produzione poetica di Robert Kroetsch (1927-2011), scrittore e critico letterario canadese nativo dell’Alberta (Canada), che tra il 1960 e il 2010 ha pubblicato un numero notevole di opere (nove romanzi, più di venti opere poetiche tra componimenti singoli e in raccolta, due volumi di saggi e diverse interviste). In particolare si è scelto di focalizzare l’attenzione sulle ultime tre raccolte di poesia – rispettivamente The Hornbooks of Rita K (2001), The Snowbird Poems (2004) e Too Bad: Sketches Toward a Self-Portrait (2010) – che, se confrontate con la produzione precedente, forniscono prova di alcuni elementi di novità all’interno della prospettiva poetica di Kroetsch. L’ipotesi dalla quale trae origine il presente studio è infatti che, a partire dalla raccolta The Hornbooks of Rita K, Kroetsch abbia imboccato un percorso di evoluzione stilistica che corre in parallelo con la formulazione di una nuova poetica. Nello specifico, si osserva che, negli ultimi dieci anni, da un punto di vista formale i componimenti si frammentano progressivamente, passando da una forma lunga – quella del long poem – a una breve – lo sketch, che risulta più adatta a rappresentare sul piano espressivo una mutata percezione dell’Io poetico. A un simile aspetto si aggiunge poi il fatto che la raffigurazione della propria vicenda umana diventa, con sempre maggiore evidenza, motivo di riflessione su una condizione universale dell’umano e sulla dimensione etica del suo agire.

Measurement of the $B^0$ - $\bar{B}^0$ and $B^0_s$ - $\bar{B}^0_s$ production asymmetries in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV and $\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV with the LHCb experiment

The production rate of $b$ and $\bar{b}$ hadrons in $pp$ collisions are not expected to be strictly identical, due to imbalance between quarks and anti-quarks in the initial state. This phenomenon can be naively related to the fact that the $\bar{b}$ quark produced in the hard scattering might combine with a $u$ or $d$ valence quark from the colliding protons, whereas the same cannot happen for a $b$ quark. This thesis presents the analysis performed to determine the production asymmetries of $B^0$ and $B^0_s$. The analysis relies on data samples collected by the LHCb detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) during the 2011 and 2012 data takings at two different values of the centre of mass energy $\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV and at $\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV, corresponding respectively to an integrated luminosity of 1 fb$^{-1}$ and of 2 fb$^{-1}$. The production asymmetry is one of the key ingredients to perform measurements of $CP$ violation in b-hadron decays at the LHC, since $CP$ asymmetries must be disentangled from other sources. The measurements of the production asymmetries are performed in bins of $p_\mathrm{T}$ and $\eta$ of the $B$-meson. The values of the production asymmetries, integrated in the ranges $4 < p_\mathrm{T} < 30$ GeV/c and $2.5<\eta<4.5$, are determined to be: \begin{equation} A_\mathrm{P}(\B^0)= (-1.00\pm0.48\pm0.29)\%,\nonumber \end{equation} \begin{equation} A_\mathrm{P}(\B^0_s)= (\phantom{-}1.09\pm2.61\pm0.61)\%,\nonumber \end{equation} where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The measurement of $A_\mathrm{P}(B^0)$ is performed using the full statistics collected by LHCb so far, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$, while the measurement of $A_\mathrm{P}(B^0_s)$ is realized with the first 1 fb$^{-1}$, leaving room for improvement. No clear evidence of dependences on the values of $p_\mathrm{T}$ and $\eta$ is observed. The results presented in this thesis are the most precise measurements available up to date.