Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Decoding complex flow phenomena via Dynamic Mode Decomposition

In this thesis, the viability of the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) as a technique to analyze and model complex dynamic real-world systems is presented. This method derives, directly from data, computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) which can replace too onerous or unavailable high-fidelity physics-based models. Optimizations and extensions to the standard implementation of the methodology are proposed, investigating diverse case studies related to the decoding of complex flow phenomena. The flexibility of this data-driven technique allows its application to high-fidelity fluid dynamics simulations, as well as time series of real systems observations. The resulting ROMs are tested against two tasks: (i) reduction of the storage requirements of high-fidelity simulations or observations; (ii) interpolation and extrapolation of missing data. The capabilities of DMD can also be exploited to alleviate the cost of onerous studies that require many simulations, such as uncertainty quantification analysis, especially when dealing with complex high-dimensional systems. In this context, a novel approach to address parameter variability issues when modeling systems with space and time-variant response is proposed. Specifically, DMD is merged with another model-reduction technique, namely the Polynomial Chaos Expansion, for uncertainty quantification purposes. Useful guidelines for DMD deployment result from the study, together with the demonstration of its potential to ease diagnosis and scenario analysis when complex flow processes are involved.

Diffusive models and chaos indicators for non-linear betatron motion in circular hadron accelerators

Understanding the complex dynamics of beam-halo formation and evolution in circular particle accelerators is crucial for the design of current and future rings, particularly those utilizing superconducting magnets such as the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC), its luminosity upgrade HL-LHC, and the proposed Future Circular Hadron Collider (FCC-hh). A recent diffusive framework, which describes the evolution of the beam distribution by means of a Fokker-Planck equation, with diffusion coefficient derived from the Nekhoroshev theorem, has been proposed to describe the long-term behaviour of beam dynamics and particle losses. In this thesis, we discuss the theoretical foundations of this framework, and propose the implementation of an original measurement protocol based on collimator scans in view of measuring the Nekhoroshev-like diffusive coefficient by means of beam loss data. The available LHC collimator scan data, unfortunately collected without the proposed measurement protocol, have been successfully analysed using the proposed framework. This approach is also applied to datasets from detailed measurements of the impact on the beam losses of so-called long-range beam-beam compensators also at the LHC. Furthermore, dynamic indicators have been studied as a tool for exploring the phase-space properties of realistic accelerator lattices in single-particle tracking simulations. By first examining the classification performance of known and new indicators in detecting the chaotic character of initial conditions for a modulated Hénon map and then applying this knowledge to study the properties of realistic accelerator lattices, we tried to identify a connection between the presence of chaotic regions in the phase space and Nekhoroshev-like diffusive behaviour, providing new tools to the accelerator physics community.