Employing Distances in Design-based Spatial Estimation

In the last couple of decades we assisted to a reappraisal of spatial design-based techniques. Usually the spatial information regarding the spatial location of the individuals of a population has been used to develop efficient sampling designs. This thesis aims at offering a new technique for both inference on individual values and global population values able to employ the spatial information available before sampling at estimation level by rewriting a deterministic interpolator under a design-based framework. The achieved point estimator of the individual values is treated both in the case of finite spatial populations and continuous spatial domains, while the theory on the estimator of the population global value covers the finite population case only. A fairly broad simulation study compares the results of the point estimator with the simple random sampling without replacement estimator in predictive form and the kriging, which is the benchmark technique for inference on spatial data. The Monte Carlo experiment is carried out on populations generated according to different superpopulation methods in order to manage different aspects of the spatial structure. The simulation outcomes point out that the proposed point estimator has almost the same behaviour as the kriging predictor regardless of the parameters adopted for generating the populations, especially for low sampling fractions. Moreover, the use of the spatial information improves substantially design-based spatial inference on individual values.

Meta-models, environment and layers: agent-oriented engineering of complex systems

Traditional software engineering approaches and metaphors fall short when applied to areas of growing relevance such as electronic commerce, enterprise resource planning, and mobile computing: such areas, in fact, generally call for open architectures that may evolve dynamically over time so as to accommodate new components and meet new requirements. This is probably one of the main reasons that the agent metaphor and the agent-oriented paradigm are gaining momentum in these areas. This thesis deals with the engineering of complex software systems in terms of the agent paradigm. This paradigm is based on the notions of agent and systems of interacting agents as fundamental abstractions for designing, developing and managing at runtime typically distributed software systems. However, today the engineer often works with technologies that do not support the abstractions used in the design of the systems. For this reason the research on methodologies becomes the basic point in the scientific activity. Currently most agent-oriented methodologies are supported by small teams of academic researchers, and as a result, most of them are in an early stage and still in the first context of mostly \academic" approaches for agent-oriented systems development. Moreover, such methodologies are not well documented and very often defined and presented only by focusing on specific aspects of the methodology. The role played by meta- models becomes fundamental for comparing and evaluating the methodologies. In fact a meta-model specifies the concepts, rules and relationships used to define methodologies. Although it is possible to describe a methodology without an explicit meta-model, formalising the underpinning ideas of the methodology in question is valuable when checking its consistency or planning extensions or modifications. A good meta-model must address all the different aspects of a methodology, i.e. the process to be followed, the work products to be generated and those responsible for making all this happen. In turn, specifying the work products that must be developed implies dening the basic modelling building blocks from which they are built. As a building block, the agent abstraction alone is not enough to fully model all the aspects related to multi-agent systems in a natural way. In particular, different perspectives exist on the role that environment plays within agent systems: however, it is clear at least that all non-agent elements of a multi-agent system are typically considered to be part of the multi-agent system environment. The key role of environment as a first-class abstraction in the engineering of multi-agent system is today generally acknowledged in the multi-agent system community, so environment should be explicitly accounted for in the engineering of multi-agent system, working as a new design dimension for agent-oriented methodologies. At least two main ingredients shape the environment: environment abstractions - entities of the environment encapsulating some functions -, and topology abstractions - entities of environment that represent the (either logical or physical) spatial structure. In addition, the engineering of non-trivial multi-agent systems requires principles and mechanisms for supporting the management of the system representation complexity. These principles lead to the adoption of a multi-layered description, which could be used by designers to provide different levels of abstraction over multi-agent systems. The research in these fields has lead to the formulation of a new version of the SODA methodology where environment abstractions and layering principles are exploited for en- gineering multi-agent systems.

Studio di ausili tecnologici compensativi di supporto all'iter di apprendimento matematico secondario e universitario degli studenti con dislessia

Data coming out from various researches carried out over the last years in Italy on the problem of school dispersion in secondary school show that difficulty in studying mathematics is one of the most frequent reasons of discomfort reported by students. Nevertheless, it is definitely unrealistic to think we can do without such knowledge in today society: mathematics is largely taught in secondary school and it is not confined within technical-scientific courses only. It is reasonable to say that, although students may choose academic courses that are, apparently, far away from mathematics, all students will have to come to terms, sooner or later in their life, with this subject. Among the reasons of discomfort given by the study of mathematics, some mention the very nature of this subject and in particular the complex symbolic language through which it is expressed. In fact, mathematics is a multimodal system composed by oral and written verbal texts, symbol expressions, such as formulae and equations, figures and graphs. For this, the study of mathematics represents a real challenge to those who suffer from dyslexia: this is a constitutional condition limiting people performances in relation to the activities of reading and writing and, in particular, to the study of mathematical contents. Here the difficulties in working with verbal and symbolic codes entail, in turn, difficulties in the comprehension of texts from which to deduce operations that, once combined together, would lead to the problem final solution. Information technologies may support this learning disorder effectively. However, these tools have some implementation limits, restricting their use in the study of scientific subjects. Vocal synthesis word processors are currently used to compensate difficulties in reading within the area of classical studies, but they are not used within the area of mathematics. This is because the vocal synthesis (or we should say the screen reader supporting it) is not able to interpret all that is not textual, such as symbols, images and graphs. The DISMATH software, which is the subject of this project, would allow dyslexic users to read technical-scientific documents with the help of a vocal synthesis, to understand the spatial structure of formulae and matrixes, to write documents with a technical-scientific content in a format that is compatible with main scientific editors. The system uses LaTex, a text mathematic language, as mediation system. It is set up as LaTex editor, whose graphic interface, in line with main commercial products, offers some additional specific functions with the capability to support the needs of users who are not able to manage verbal and symbolic codes on their own. LaTex is translated in real time into a standard symbolic language and it is read by vocal synthesis in natural language, in order to increase, through the bimodal representation, the ability to process information. The understanding of the mathematic formula through its reading is made possible by the deconstruction of the formula itself and its “tree” representation, so allowing to identify the logical elements composing it. Users, even without knowing LaTex language, are able to write whatever scientific document they need: in fact the symbolic elements are recalled by proper menus and automatically translated by the software managing the correct syntax. The final aim of the project, therefore, is to implement an editor enabling dyslexic people (but not only them) to manage mathematic formulae effectively, through the integration of different software tools, so allowing a better teacher/learner interaction too.

Bio-physical interactions and feedbacks in a global climate model

This PhD thesis addresses the topic of large-scale interactions between climate and marine biogeochemistry. To this end, centennial simulations are performed under present and projected future climate conditions with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model containing a complex marine biogeochemistry model. The role of marine biogeochemistry in the climate system is first investigated. Phytoplankton solar radiation absorption in the upper ocean enhances sea surface temperatures and upper ocean stratification. The associated increase in ocean latent heat losses raises atmospheric temperatures and water vapor. Atmospheric circulation is modified at tropical and extratropical latitudes with impacts on precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and ocean circulation which cause upper-ocean heat content to decrease at tropical latitudes and to increase at middle latitudes. Marine biogeochemistry is tightly related to physical climate variability, which may vary in response to internal natural dynamics or to external forcing such as anthropogenic carbon emissions. Wind changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic, affect ocean properties by means of momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes. Changes in upper ocean temperature and mixing impact the spatial structure and seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton through light and nutrient limitations. These changes affect the capability of the North Atlantic Ocean of absorbing atmospheric CO2 and of fixing it inside sinking particulate organic matter. Low-frequency NAO phases determine a delayed response of ocean circulation, temperature and salinity, which in turn affects stratification and marine biogeochemistry. In 20th and 21st century simulations natural wind fluctuations in the North Pacific, related to the two dominant modes of atmospheric variability, affect the spatial structure and the magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom through changes in upper-ocean temperature and mixing. The impacts of human-induced emissions in the 21st century are generally larger than natural climate fluctuations, with the phytoplankton spring bloom starting one month earlier than in the 20th century and with ~50% lower magnitude. This PhD thesis advances the knowledge of bio-physical interactions within the global climate, highlighting the intrinsic coupling between physical climate and biosphere, and providing a framework on which future studies of Earth System change can be built on.

Assessment of the population structure and temporal changes in spatial dynamics and genetic characteristics of the Atlantic bluefin tuna under a fishery independent framework.

As a large and long-lived species with high economic value, restricted spawning areas and short spawning periods, the Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is particularly susceptible to over-exploitation. Although BFT have been targeted by fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea for thousands of years, it has only been in these last decades that the exploitation rate has reached far beyond sustainable levels. An understanding of the population structure, spatial dynamics, exploitation rates and the environmental variables that affect BFT is crucial for the conservation of the species. The aims of this PhD project were 1) to assess the accuracy of larval identification methods, 2) determine the genetic structure of modern BFT populations, 3) assess the self-recruitment rate in the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean spawning areas, 4) estimate the immigration rate of BFT to feeding aggregations from the various spawning areas, and 5) develop tools capable of investigating the temporal stability of population structuring in the Mediterranean Sea. Several weaknesses in modern morphology-based taxonomy including demographic decline of expert taxonomists, flawed identification keys, reluctance of the taxonomic community to embrace advances in digital communications and a general scarcity of modern user-friendly materials are reviewed. Barcoding of scombrid larvae revealed important differences in the accuracy of the taxonomic identifications carried out by different ichthyoplanktologists following morphology-based methods. Using a Genotyping-by-Sequencing a panel of 95 SNPs was developed and used to characterize the population structuring of BFT and composition of adult feeding aggregations. Using novel molecular techniques, DNA was extracted from bluefin tuna vertebrae excavated from late iron age, ancient roman settlements Byzantine-era Constantinople and a 20th century collection. A second panel of 96 SNPs was developed to genotype historical and modern samples in order to elucidate changes in population structuring and allele frequencies of loci associated with selective traits.

An experimental and theoretical approach to correct for the scattered radiation in an X-ray computer tomography system for industrial applications

The main problem connected to cone beam computed tomography (CT) systems for industrial applications employing 450 kV X-ray tubes is the high amount of scattered radiation which is added to the primary radiation (signal). This stray radiation leads to a significant degradation of the image quality. A better understanding of the scattering and methods to reduce its effects are therefore necessary to improve the image quality. Several studies have been carried out in the medical field at lower energies, whereas studies in industrial CT, especially for energies up to 450 kV, are lacking. Moreover, the studies reported in literature do not consider the scattered radiation generated by the CT system structure and the walls of the X-ray room (environmental scatter). In order to investigate the scattering on CT projections a GEANT4-based Monte Carlo (MC) model was developed. The model, which has been validated against experimental data, has enabled the calculation of the scattering including the environmental scatter, the optimization of an anti-scatter grid suitable for the CT system, and the optimization of the hardware components of the CT system. The investigation of multiple scattering in the CT projections showed that its contribution is 2.3 times the one of primary radiation for certain objects. The results of the environmental scatter showed that it is the major component of the scattering for aluminum box objects of front size 70 x 70 mm2 and that it strongly depends on the thickness of the object and therefore on the projection. For that reason, its correction is one of the key factors for achieving high quality images. The anti-scatter grid optimized by means of the developed MC model was found to reduce the scatter-toprimary ratio in the reconstructed images by 20 %. The object and environmental scatter calculated by means of the simulation were used to improve the scatter correction algorithm which could be patented by Empa. The results showed that the cupping effect in the corrected image is strongly reduced. The developed CT simulation is a powerful tool to optimize the design of the CT system and to evaluate the contribution of the scattered radiation to the image. Besides, it has offered a basis for a new scatter correction approach by which it has been possible to achieve images with the same spatial resolution as state-of-the-art well collimated fan-beam CT with a gain in the reconstruction time of a factor 10. This result has a high economic impact in non-destructive testing and evaluation, and reverse engineering.

A regional environmental accounting matrix and integrated environmental economic analyses to support regional planning

This research deals with the deepening and use of an environmental accounting matrix in Emilia-Romagna, RAMEA air emissions (regional NAMEA), carried out by the Regional Environment Agency (Arpa) in an European project. After a depiction of the international context regarding the widespread needing to integrate economic indicators and go beyond conventional reporting system, this study explains the structure, update and development of the tool. The overall aim is to outline the matrix for environmental assessments of regional plans, draw up sustainable reports and monitor effects of regional policies in a sustainable development perspective. The work focused on an application of a Shift-Share model, on the integration with eco-taxes, industrial waste production, energy consumptions, on applications of the extended RAMEA as a policy tool, following Eurostat guidelines. The common thread is the eco-efficiency (economic-environmental efficiency) index. The first part, in English, treats the methodology used to build a more complete tool; in the second part RAMEA has been applied on two regional case studies, in Italian, to support decision makers regarding Strategic Environmental Assessments’ processes (2001/42/EC). The aim is to support an evidence-based policy making by integrating sustainable development concerns at all levels. The first case study regards integrated environmental-economic analyses in support to the SEA of the Regional Waste management plan. For the industrial waste production an extended and updated RAMEA has been developed as a useful policy tool, to help in analysing and monitoring the state of environmental-economic performances. The second case study deals with the environmental report for the SEA of the Regional Program concerning productive activities. RAMEA has been applied aiming to an integrated environmental-economic analysis of the context, to investigate the performances of the regional production chains and to depict and monitor the area where the program should be carried out, from an integrated environmental-economic perspective.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Moving toward stock units identification based on spatial population structure of marine species in the Mediterranean Sea and adjacent waters through multidisciplinary and holistic approaches for the sustainability of fisheries resources

Investigating stock identity of marine species in a multidisciplinary holistic approach can reveal patterns of complex spatial population structure and signatures of potential local adaptation. The population structure of common sole (Solea solea) in the Mediterranean Sea was delineated using genomic and otolith data, including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) markers and otolith data. SNPs were correlated with environmental and spatial variables to evaluate the impact of these features on the actual genetic population structure. Integrated holistic approach was applied to combine the tracers with different spatio-temporal scales. SNPs data was also used to illustrate the population structure of European hake (Merluccius merluccius) within the Alboran Sea, extending into the neighboring Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The aim was to identify patterns of neutral and potential adaptive genetic variation by applying seascape genomic framework. Results from both genetic and otolith data suggested significant divergence among putative populations of common sole, confirming a clear separation between Western, Adriatic Sea and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Evidence of fine-scale population structure in the Western Mediterranean Sea was observed at outlier loci level and in the Adriatic. Our study not only indicates that separation among Mediterranean sole population is led primarily by neutral processes, but it also suggests the presence of local adaptation influenced by environmental and spatial factors. The holistic approach by considering the spatio-temporal scales of variation confirmed that the same pattern of separation between these geographical sites is currently occurring and has occurred for many generations. Results showed the occurrence of population structure in Merluccius merluccius by detecting westward–eastward differentiation among populations and distinct subgroups at a fine geographical scale using outlier SNPs. These results enhance the knowledge of the population structure of commercially relevant species to support the application of spatial stock assessment models, including a redefinition of fishery management units.

Competitività in sostenibilità urbana e territoriale. L’Emilia Romagna, regione d’Europa

The thesis in Urban and Regional Geography titled “URBAN AND TERRITORIAL COMPETITIVENESS IN SUSTAINABILITY. EMILIA-ROMAGNA, REGION OF EUROPE” is divided into two sections. Section one is additionally composed by two chapters (chap. 1 and 2) and deals with theoretical and gnosiological issues. Section two, of two more chapters (chap. 3 and 4), provides practical contributions: these issues give explanatory patterns to interpret the performances of emiliano-romagnoli urban systems. Chapter one is an introductory chapter. It analyzes globalization that involves a larger and larger number of cities, rich or poor. It also considers the so called “digital divide” either as one of the major phenomena of this unhomogeneous development or as an interesting gnosiological and practical challenge of geography. Globalization is now involving all the cities, large or small, but the small ones have higher risks of exclusion: it depends on their more fragile socio-economic, cultural, and environmental urban structure. That’s why European Union (chapter two) promotes policies and endows politics to sustain cities, because urban systems are the basis for the territorial development. So, European, national and local Institutions are firmly interested in promoting urban and local interventions and projects. Section two deals with economic-geography methods, which consists on collecting indicators and the benchmarking methodology. It also specifically analyzes the urban systems of Emilia-Romagna. Consequences of the globalization on the cities are interpreted with a study of their local resources, intended as potentials for their development. The STeMA approach, proposed by Professor Maria Prezioso (University of Roma, “Tor Vergata”) and used by the ESPON (European Spatial Program Observation Network) project, describes the main “determinants” of the territorial and urban development. These are easily comparable to one another (similar or better performing). This approach achieves two goals. On one hand, it is possible to analyze every urban system in its all main characteristics and to preserve its historical and cultural factors. On another hand, each city is “knowable” and “understandable” by all scholars, as it is objectively comparable. So, urban planners can propose specific “multi-level” and “multi-varied” programs of governance. These will face globalization by exalting local empowerment.

Application of FTIR microscopy to cultural heritage materials

Research in art conservation has been developed from the early 1950s, giving a significant contribution to the conservation-restoration of cultural heritage artefacts. In fact, only through a profound knowledge about the nature and conditions of constituent materials, suitable decisions on the conservation and restoration measures can thus be adopted and preservation practices enhanced. The study of ancient artworks is particularly challenging as they can be considered as heterogeneous and multilayered systems where numerous interactions between the different components as well as degradation and ageing phenomena take place. However, difficulties to physically separate the different layers due to their thickness (1-200 µm) can result in the inaccurate attribution of the identified compounds to a specific layer. Therefore, details can only be analysed when the sample preparation method leaves the layer structure intact, as for example the preparation of embedding cross sections in synthetic resins. Hence, spatially resolved analytical techniques are required not only to exactly characterize the nature of the compounds but also to obtain precise chemical and physical information about ongoing changes. This thesis focuses on the application of FTIR microspectroscopic techniques for cultural heritage materials. The first section is aimed at introducing the use of FTIR microscopy in conservation science with a particular attention to the sampling criteria and sample preparation methods. The second section is aimed at evaluating and validating the use of different FTIR microscopic analytical methods applied to the study of different art conservation issues which may be encountered dealing with cultural heritage artefacts: the characterisation of the artistic execution technique (chapter II-1), the studies on degradation phenomena (chapter II-2) and finally the evaluation of protective treatments (chapter II-3). The third and last section is divided into three chapters which underline recent developments in FTIR spectroscopy for the characterisation of paint cross sections and in particular thin organic layers: a newly developed preparation method with embedding systems in infrared transparent salts (chapter III-1), the new opportunities offered by macro-ATR imaging spectroscopy (chapter III-2) and the possibilities achieved with the different FTIR microspectroscopic techniques nowadays available (chapter III-3). In chapter II-1, FTIR microspectroscopy as molecular analysis, is presented in an integrated approach with other analytical techniques. The proposed sequence is optimized in function of the limited quantity of sample available and this methodology permits to identify the painting materials and characterise the adopted execution technique and state of conservation. Chapter II-2 describes the characterisation of the degradation products with FTIR microscopy since the investigation on the ageing processes encountered in old artefacts represents one of the most important issues in conservation research. Metal carboxylates resulting from the interaction between pigments and binding media are characterized using synthesised metal palmitates and their production is detected on copper-, zinc-, manganese- and lead- (associated with lead carbonate) based pigments dispersed either in oil or egg tempera. Moreover, significant effects seem to be obtained with iron and cobalt (acceleration of the triglycerides hydrolysis). For the first time on sienna and umber paints, manganese carboxylates are also observed. Finally in chapter II-3, FTIR microscopy is combined with further elemental analyses to characterise and estimate the performances and stability of newly developed treatments, which should better fit conservation-restoration problems. In the second part, in chapter III-1, an innovative embedding system in potassium bromide is reported focusing on the characterisation and localisation of organic substances in cross sections. Not only the identification but also the distribution of proteinaceous, lipidic or resinaceous materials, are evidenced directly on different paint cross sections, especially in thin layers of the order of 10 µm. Chapter III-2 describes the use of a conventional diamond ATR accessory coupled with a focal plane array to obtain chemical images of multi-layered paint cross sections. A rapid and simple identification of the different compounds is achieved without the use of any infrared microscope objectives. Finally, the latest FTIR techniques available are highlighted in chapter III-3 in a comparative study for the characterisation of paint cross sections. Results in terms of spatial resolution, data quality and chemical information obtained are presented and in particular, a new FTIR microscope equipped with a linear array detector, which permits reducing the spatial resolution limit to approximately 5 µm, provides very promising results and may represent a good alternative to either mapping or imaging systems.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Measure of Global Specialization and Spatial Clustering for the Identification of "Specialized" Agglomeration

The intensity of regional specialization in specific activities, and conversely, the level of industrial concentration in specific locations, has been used as a complementary evidence for the existence and significance of externalities. Additionally, economists have mainly focused the debate on disentangling the sources of specialization and concentration processes according to three vectors: natural advantages, internal, and external scale economies. The arbitrariness of partitions plays a key role in capturing these effects, while the selection of the partition would have to reflect the actual characteristics of the economy. Thus, the identification of spatial boundaries to measure specialization becomes critical, since most likely the model will be adapted to different scales of distance, and be influenced by different types of externalities or economies of agglomeration, which are based on the mechanisms of interaction with particular requirements of spatial proximity. This work is based on the analysis of the spatial aspect of economic specialization supported by the manufacturing industry case. The main objective is to propose, for discrete and continuous space: i) a measure of global specialization; ii) a local disaggregation of the global measure; and iii) a spatial clustering method for the identification of specialized agglomerations.

Performance evaluation of low environmental impact asphalt concretes using the mechanistic empirical design method based on laboratory fatigue and permanent deformation models

The "sustainability" concept relates to the prolonging of human economic systems with as little detrimental impact on ecological systems as possible. Construction that exhibits good environmental stewardship and practices that conserve resources in a manner that allow growth and development to be sustained for the long-term without degrading the environment are indispensable in a developed society. Past, current and future advancements in asphalt as an environmentally sustainable paving material are especially important because the quantities of asphalt used annually in Europe as well as in the U.S. are large. The asphalt industry is still developing technological improvements that will reduce the environmental impact without affecting the final mechanical performance. Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is a type of asphalt mix requiring lower production temperatures compared to hot mix asphalt (HMA), while aiming to maintain the desired post construction properties of traditional HMA. Lowering the production temperature reduce the fuel usage and the production of emissions therefore and that improve conditions for workers and supports the sustainable development. Even the crumb-rubber modifier (CRM), with shredded automobile tires and used in the United States since the mid 1980s, has proven to be an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional asphalt pavement. Furthermore, the use of waste tires is not only relevant in an environmental aspect but also for the engineering properties of asphalt [Pennisi E., 1992]. This research project is aimed to demonstrate the dual value of these Asphalt Mixes in regards to the environmental and mechanical performance and to suggest a low environmental impact design procedure. In fact, the use of eco-friendly materials is the first phase towards an eco-compatible design but it cannot be the only step. The eco-compatible approach should be extended also to the design method and material characterization because only with these phases is it possible to exploit the maximum potential properties of the used materials. Appropriate asphalt concrete characterization is essential and vital for realistic performance prediction of asphalt concrete pavements. Volumetric (Mix design) and mechanical (Permanent deformation and Fatigue performance) properties are important factors to consider. Moreover, an advanced and efficient design method is necessary in order to correctly use the material. A design method such as a Mechanistic-Empirical approach, consisting of a structural model capable of predicting the state of stresses and strains within the pavement structure under the different traffic and environmental conditions, was the application of choice. In particular this study focus on the CalME and its Incremental-Recursive (I-R) procedure, based on damage models for fatigue and permanent shear strain related to the surface cracking and to the rutting respectively. It works in increments of time and, using the output from one increment, recursively, as input to the next increment, predicts the pavement conditions in terms of layer moduli, fatigue cracking, rutting and roughness. This software procedure was adopted in order to verify the mechanical properties of the study mixes and the reciprocal relationship between surface layer and pavement structure in terms of fatigue and permanent deformation with defined traffic and environmental conditions. The asphalt mixes studied were used in a pavement structure as surface layer of 60 mm thickness. The performance of the pavement was compared to the performance of the same pavement structure where different kinds of asphalt concrete were used as surface layer. In comparison to a conventional asphalt concrete, three eco-friendly materials, two warm mix asphalt and a rubberized asphalt concrete, were analyzed. The First Two Chapters summarize the necessary steps aimed to satisfy the sustainable pavement design procedure. In Chapter I the problem of asphalt pavement eco-compatible design was introduced. The low environmental impact materials such as the Warm Mix Asphalt and the Rubberized Asphalt Concrete were described in detail. In addition the value of a rational asphalt pavement design method was discussed. Chapter II underlines the importance of a deep laboratory characterization based on appropriate materials selection and performance evaluation. In Chapter III, CalME is introduced trough a specific explanation of the different equipped design approaches and specifically explaining the I-R procedure. In Chapter IV, the experimental program is presented with a explanation of test laboratory devices adopted. The Fatigue and Rutting performances of the study mixes are shown respectively in Chapter V and VI. Through these laboratory test data the CalME I-R models parameters for Master Curve, fatigue damage and permanent shear strain were evaluated. Lastly, in Chapter VII, the results of the asphalt pavement structures simulations with different surface layers were reported. For each pavement structure, the total surface cracking, the total rutting, the fatigue damage and the rutting depth in each bound layer were analyzed.