Development of methodologies supporting the sustainable and safe integration of offshore conventional and renewable energy production

Against a backdrop of rapidly increasing worldwide population and growing energy demand, the development of renewable energy technologies has become of primary importance in the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is often technically and economically infeasible to transport discontinuous renewable electricity for long distances to the shore. Another shortcoming of non-programmable renewable power is its integration into the onshore grid without affecting the dispatching process. On the other hand, the offshore oil & gas industry is striving to reduce overall carbon footprint from onsite power generators and limiting large expenses associated to carrying electricity from remote offshore facilities. Furthermore, the increased complexity and expansion towards challenging areas of offshore hydrocarbons operations call for higher attention to safety and environmental protection issues from major accident hazards. Innovative hybrid energy systems, as Power-to-Gas (P2G), Power-to-Liquid (P2L) and Gas-to-Power (G2P) options, implemented at offshore locations, would offer the opportunity to overcome challenges of both renewable and oil & gas sectors. This study aims at the development of systematic methodologies based on proper sustainability and safety performance indicators supporting the choice of P2G, P2L and G2P hybrid energy options for offshore green projects in early design phases. An in-depth analysis of the different offshore hybrid strategies was performed. The literature reviews on existing methods proposing metrics to assess sustainability of hybrid energy systems, inherent safety of process routes in conceptual design stage and environmental protection of installations from oil and chemical accidental spills were carried out. To fill the gaps, a suite of specific decision-making methodologies was developed, based on representative multi-criteria indicators addressing technical, economic, environmental and societal aspects of alternative options. A set of five case-studies was defined, covering different offshore scenarios of concern, to provide an assessment of the effectiveness and value of the developed tools.

Sustainable exploitation of offshore renewable energy sources

Energy transition is the response of humankind to the concerning effects of fossil fuels depletion, climate change and energy insecurity, and calls for a deep penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems and industrial processes. Despite the high potentials, low impacts and long-term availability, RESs present some limits which need to be overcome, such as the strong variability and difficult predictability, which result in scarce reliability and difficult applicability in steady-state processes. Some technological solutions relate to energy storage systems, equipment electrification and hybrid systems deployment, thus accomplishing distributed generation even in remote sites as offshore. However, all of these actions cannot disregard sustainability, which represents a founding principle for any project, bringing together economics, reliability and environmental protection. To entail sustainability in RESs-based innovative projects, previous knowledge and tools are often not tailored or miss the novel objectives. This research proposes three methodological approaches, bridging the gaps. The first contribute adapts literature-based indicators of inherent safety and energy efficiency to capture the specificities of novel process plants and hybrid systems. Minor case studies dealing with novel P2X processes exemplify the application of these novel indicators. The second method guides the conceptual design of hybrid systems for the valorisation of a RES in a site, by considering the sustainability performances of alternative design options. Its application is demonstrated through the comparison of two offshore sites where wave energy can be valorised. Finally, “OHRES”, a comprehensive tool for the sustainable optimisation of hybrid renewable energy systems is proposed. “OHRES” hinges on the exploitation of multiple RESs, by converting ex-post sustainability indicators into discrimination markers screening a large number of possible system configurations, according to the location features. Five case studies demonstrate “OHRES” versatility in the sustainable valorisation of multiple RESs.

Numerical and physical modelling of axially loaded piles for offshore wind turbines

The scope of the thesis is to broaden the knowledge about axially loaded pipe piles, that can play as foundations for offshore wind turbines based on jacket structures. The goal of the work was pursued by interpreting experimental data on large-scale model piles and by developing numerical tools for the prediction of their monotonic response to tensile and compressive loads to failure. The availability of experimental results on large scale model piles produced in two different campaigns at Fraunhofer IWES (Hannover, Germany) represented the reference for the whole work. Data from CPTs, blow counts during installation and load-displacement curves allowed to develop considerations on the experimental results and comparison with empirical methods from literature, such as CPT-based methods and Load Transfer methods. The understanding of soil-structure interaction mechanisms has been involved in the study in order to better assess the mechanical response of the sand with the scope to help in developing predictive tools of the experiments. A lack of information on the response of Rohsand 3152 when in contact with steel was highlighted, so the necessity of better assessing its response was fulfilled with a comprehensive campaign of interface shear test. It was found how the response of the sand to ultimate conditions evolve with the roughness of the steel, which is a precious information to take account of when attempting the prediction of a pile capacity. Parallel to this topic, the work has developed a numerical modelling procedure that was validated on the available large-scale model piles at IWES. The modelling strategy is intended to build a FE model whose mechanical properties of the sand come from an interpretation of commonly available geotechnical tests. The results of the FE model were compared with other predictive tools currently used in the engineering practice.

Methodologies for the analysis and interpretation of environmental datasets from areas interested by offshore activities

The exploitation of hydrocarbon reservoirs by the oil and gas industries represents one of the most relevant and concerning anthropic stressor in various marine areas worldwide and the presence of extractive structures can have severe consequences on the marine environment. Environmental monitoring surveys are carried out to monitor the effects and impacts of offshore energy facilities. Macrobenthic communities, inhabiting the soft-bottom, represent a key component of these surveys given their great responsiveness to natural and anthropic changes. A comprehensive collection of monitoring data from four Italian seas was used to investigate distributional pattern of macrozoobenthos assemblages confirming a high spatial variability in relation to the environmental variables analyzed. Since these datasets could represent a powerful tool for the industrial and scientific research, the steps and standardized procedures needed to obtain robust and comparable high-quality data were investigated and outlined. Over recent years, decommissioning of old platforms is a growing topic in this sector, involving many actors in the various decision-making processes. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, specific for the Adriatic Sea, was developed to investigate the impacts of decommissioning of a gas platform on environmental and socio-economic aspects, to select the best decommissioning scenario. From the scenarios studied, the most impacting one has resulted to be total removal, affecting all the faunal component considered in the study. Currently, the European nations are increasing the production of energy from offshore wind farms with an exponential expansion. A comparative study of methodologies used five countries of the North Sea countries was carried out to investigate the best approaches to monitor the effects of wind farms on the benthic communities. In the foreseeable future, collaboration between industry, scientific communities, national and international policies are needed to gain knowledge concerning the effects of these industrial activities on the ecological status of the ecosystems.

The rupture process of recent tsunamigenic earthquakes by geophysical data inversion

Subduction zones are the favorite places to generate tsunamigenic earthquakes, where friction between oceanic and continental plates causes the occurrence of a strong seismicity. The topics and the methodologies discussed in this thesis are focussed to the understanding of the rupture process of the seismic sources of great earthquakes that generate tsunamis. The tsunamigenesis is controlled by several kinematical characteristic of the parent earthquake, as the focal mechanism, the depth of the rupture, the slip distribution along the fault area and by the mechanical properties of the source zone. Each of these factors plays a fundamental role in the tsunami generation. Therefore, inferring the source parameters of tsunamigenic earthquakes is crucial to understand the generation of the consequent tsunami and so to mitigate the risk along the coasts. The typical way to proceed when we want to gather information regarding the source process is to have recourse to the inversion of geophysical data that are available. Tsunami data, moreover, are useful to constrain the portion of the fault area that extends offshore, generally close to the trench that, on the contrary, other kinds of data are not able to constrain. In this thesis I have discussed the rupture process of some recent tsunamigenic events, as inferred by means of an inverse method. I have presented the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake (Mw 8.1). In this study the slip distribution on the fault has been inferred by inverting tsunami waveform, GPS, and bottom-pressure data. The joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data has revealed a much better constrain for the slip distribution on the fault rather than the separate inversions of single datasets. Then we have studied the earthquake occurred on 2007 in southern Sumatra (Mw 8.4). By inverting several tsunami waveforms, both in the near and in the far field, we have determined the slip distribution and the mean rupture velocity along the causative fault. Since the largest patch of slip was concentrated on the deepest part of the fault, this is the likely reason for the small tsunami waves that followed the earthquake, pointing out how much the depth of the rupture plays a crucial role in controlling the tsunamigenesis. Finally, we have presented a new rupture model for the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.2). We have performed the joint inversion of tsunami waveform, GPS and satellite altimetry data, to infer the slip distribution, the slip direction, and the rupture velocity on the fault. Furthermore, in this work we have presented a novel method to estimate, in a self-consistent way, the average rigidity of the source zone. The estimation of the source zone rigidity is important since it may play a significant role in the tsunami generation and, particularly for slow earthquakes, a low rigidity value is sometimes necessary to explain how a relatively low seismic moment earthquake may generate significant tsunamis; this latter point may be relevant for explaining the mechanics of the tsunami earthquakes, one of the open issues in present day seismology. The investigation of these tsunamigenic earthquakes has underlined the importance to use a joint inversion of different geophysical data to determine the rupture characteristics. The results shown here have important implications for the implementation of new tsunami warning systems – particularly in the near-field – the improvement of the current ones, and furthermore for the planning of the inundation maps for tsunami-hazard assessment along the coastal area.

Study of the circulation processes in the northern Adriatic sea - coastal area and Venice lagoon inlets

This work is a detailed study of hydrodynamic processes in a defined area, the littoral in front of the Venice Lagoon and its inlets, which are complex morphological areas of interconnection. A finite element hydrodynamic model of the Venice Lagoon and the Adriatic Sea has been developed in order to study the coastal current patterns and the exchanges at the inlets of the Venice Lagoon. This is the first work in this area that tries to model the interaction dynamics, running together a model for the lagoon and the Adriatic Sea. First the barotropic processes near the inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been studied. Data from more than ten tide gauges displaced in the Adriatic Sea have been used in the calibration of the simulated water levels. To validate the model results, empirical flux data measured by ADCP probes installed inside the inlets of Lido and Malamocco have been used and the exchanges through the three inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been analyzed. The comparison between modelled and measured fluxes at the inlets outlined the efficiency of the model to reproduce both tide and wind induced water exchanges between the sea and the lagoon. As a second step, also small scale processes around the inlets that connect the Venice lagoon with the Northern Adriatic Sea have been investigated by means of 3D simulations. Maps of vorticity have been produced, considering the influence of tidal flows and wind stress in the area. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to define the importance of the advection and of the baroclinic pressure gradients in the development of vortical processes seen along the littoral close to the inlets. Finally a comparison with real data measurements, surface velocity data from HF Radar near the Venice inlets, has been performed, which allows for a better understanding of the processes and their seasonal dynamics. The results outline the predominance of wind and tidal forcing in the coastal area. Wind forcing acts mainly on the mean coastal current inducing its detachment offshore during Sirocco events and an increase of littoral currents during Bora events. The Bora action is more homogeneous on the whole coastal area whereas the Sirocco strengthens its impact in the South, near Chioggia inlet. Tidal forcing at the inlets is mainly barotropic. The sensitivity analysis shows how advection is the main physical process responsible for the persistent vortical structures present along the littoral between the Venice Lagoon inlets. The comparison with measurements from HF Radar not only permitted a validation the model results, but also a description of different patterns in specific periods of the year. The success of the 2D and the 3D simulations on the reproduction both of the SSE, inside and outside the Venice Lagoon, of the tidal flow, through the lagoon inlets, and of the small scale phenomena, occurring along the littoral, indicates that the finite element approach is the most suitable tool for the investigation of coastal processes. For the first time, as shown by the flux modeling, the physical processes that drive the interaction between the two basins were reproduced.

Studio di fenomeni d'instabilità gravitativa sui fondali marini, con particolare riferimento all'isola di Stromboli

In the last decade the interest for submarine instability grew up, driven by the increasing exploitation of natural resources (primary hydrocarbons), the emplacement of bottom-lying structures (cables and pipelines) and by the development of coastal areas, whose infrastructures increasingly protrude to the sea. The great interest for this topic promoted a number of international projects such as: STEAM (Sediment Transport on European Atlantic Margins, 93-96), ENAM II (European North Atlantic Margin, 96-99), GITEC (Genesis and Impact of Tsunamis on the European Coast 92-95), STRATAFORM (STRATA FORmation on Margins, 95-01), Seabed Slope Process in Deep Water Continental Margin (Northwest Gulf of Mexico, 96-04), COSTA (Continental slope Stability, 00-05), EUROMARGINS (Slope Stability on Europe’s Passive Continental Margin), SPACOMA (04-07), EUROSTRATAFORM (European Margin Strata Formation), NGI's internal project SIP-8 (Offshore Geohazards), IGCP-511: Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences (05-09) and projects indirectly related to instability processes, such as TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European region, 06-09) or NEAREST (integrated observations from NEAR shore sourcES of Tsunamis: towards an early warning system, 06-09). In Italy, apart from a national project realized within the activities of the National Group of Volcanology during the framework 2000-2003 “Conoscenza delle parti sommerse dei vulcani italiani e valutazione del potenziale rischio vulcanico”, the study of submarine mass-movement has been underestimated until the occurrence of the landslide-tsunami events that affected Stromboli on December 30, 2002. This event made the Italian Institutions and the scientific community more aware of the hazard related to submarine landslides, mainly in light of the growing anthropization of coastal sectors, that increases the vulnerability of these areas to the consequences of such processes. In this regard, two important national projects have been recently funded in order to study coastal instabilities (PRIN 24, 06-08) and to map the main submarine hazard features on continental shelves and upper slopes around the most part of Italian coast (MaGIC Project). The study realized in this Thesis is addressed to the understanding of these processes, with particular reference to Stromboli submerged flanks. These latter represent a natural laboratory in this regard, as several kind of instability phenomena are present on the submerged flanks, affecting about 90% of the entire submerged areal and often (strongly) influencing the morphological evolution of subaerial slopes, as witnessed by the event occurred on 30 December 2002. Furthermore, each phenomenon is characterized by different pre-failure, failure and post-failure mechanisms, ranging from rock-falls, to turbidity currents up to catastrophic sector collapses. The Thesis is divided into three introductive chapters, regarding a brief review of submarine instability phenomena and related hazard (cap. 1), a “bird’s-eye” view on methodologies and available dataset (cap. 2) and a short introduction on the evolution and the morpho-structural setting of the Stromboli edifice (cap. 3). This latter seems to play a major role in the development of largescale sector collapses at Stromboli, as they occurred perpendicular to the orientation of the main volcanic rift axis (oriented in NE-SW direction). The characterization of these events and their relationships with successive erosive-depositional processes represents the main focus of cap.4 (Offshore evidence of large-scale lateral collapses on the eastern flank of Stromboli, Italy, due to structurally-controlled, bilateral flank instability) and cap. 5 (Lateral collapses and active sedimentary processes on the North-western flank of Stromboli Volcano), represented by articles accepted for publication on international papers (Marine Geology). Moreover, these studies highlight the hazard related to these catastrophic events; several calamities (with more than 40000 casualties only in the last two century) have been, in fact, the direct or indirect result of landslides affecting volcanic flanks, as observed at Oshima-Oshima (1741) and Unzen Volcano (1792) in Japan (Satake&Kato, 2001; Brantley&Scott, 1993), Krakatau (1883) in Indonesia (Self&Rampino, 1981), Ritter Island (1888), Sissano in Papua New Guinea (Ward& Day, 2003; Johnson, 1987; Tappin et al., 2001) and Mt St. Augustine (1883) in Alaska (Beget& Kienle, 1992). Flank landslide are also recognized as the most important and efficient mass-wasting process on volcanoes, contributing to the development of the edifices by widening their base and to the growth of a volcaniclastic apron at the foot of a volcano; a number of small and medium-scale erosive processes are also responsible for the carving of Stromboli submarine flanks and the transport of debris towards the deeper areas. The characterization of features associated to these processes is the main focus of cap. 6; it is also important to highlight that some small-scale events are able to create damage to coastal areas, as also witnessed by recent events of Gioia Tauro 1978, Nizza, 1979 and Stromboli 2002. The hazard potential related to these phenomena is, in fact, very high, as they commonly occur at higher frequency with respect to large-scale collapses, therefore being more significant in terms of human timescales. In the last chapter (cap. 7), a brief review and discussion of instability processes identified on Stromboli submerged flanks is presented; they are also compared with respect to analogous processes recognized in other submerged areas in order to shed lights on the main factors involved in their development. Finally, some applications of multibeam data to assess the hazard related to these phenomena are also discussed.

Preliminary studies for the establishment of a tsunami early detection algorithm to be used in the frame of a Tsunami Warning System

This thesis presents and discusses TEDA, an algorithm for the automatic detection in real-time of tsunamis and large amplitude waves on sea level records. TEDA has been developed in the frame of the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna for coastal tide gauges and it has been calibrated and tested for the tide gauge station of Adak Island, in Alaska. A preliminary study to apply TEDA to offshore buoys in the Pacific Ocean is also presented.

Geological and Structural evolution of the Eurasia Africa plate boundary in the Gulf of Cadiz Central Eastern Atlantic Sea.

Iberia Africa plate boundary, cross, roughly W-E, connecting the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Azores triple junction to the Continental margin of Morocco. Relative movement between the two plate change along the boundary, from transtensive near the Azores archipelago, through trascurrent movement in the middle at the Gloria Fracture Zone, to transpressive in the Gulf of Cadiz area. This study presents the results of geophysical and geological analysis on the plate boundary area offshore Gibraltar. The main topic is to clarify the geodynamic evolution of this area from Oligocene to Quaternary. Recent studies have shown that the new plate boundary is represented by a 600 km long set of aligned, dextral trascurrent faults (the SWIM lineaments) connecting the Gloria fault to the Riff orogene. The western termination of these lineaments crosscuts the Gibraltar accretionary prism and seems to reach the Moroccan continental shelf. In the past two years newly acquired bathymetric data collected in the Moroccan offshore permit to enlighten the present position of the eastern portion of the plate boundary, previously thought to be a diffuse plate boundary. The plate boundary evolution, from the onset of compression in the Oligocene to the Late Pliocene activation of trascurrent structures, is not yet well constrained. The review of available seismics lines, gravity and bathymetric data, together with the analysis of new acquired bathymetric and high resolution seismic data offshore Morocco, allows to understand how the deformation acted at lithospheric scale under the compressive regime. Lithospheric folding in the area is suggested, and a new conceptual model is proposed for the propagation of the deformation acting in the brittle crust during this process. Our results show that lithospheric folding, both in oceanic and thinned continental crust, produced large wavelength synclines bounded by short wavelength, top thrust, anticlines. Two of these anticlines are located in the Gulf of Cadiz, and are represented by the Gorringe Ridge and Coral Patch seamounts. Lithospheric folding probably interacted with the Monchique – Madeira hotspot during the 72 Ma to Recent, NNE – SSW transit. Plume related volcanism is for the first time described on top of the Coral Patch seamount, where nine volcanoes are found by means of bathymetric data. 40Ar-39Ar age of 31.4±1.98 Ma are measured from one rock sample of one of these volcanoes. Analysis on biogenic samples show how the Coral Patch act as a starved offshore seamount since the Chattian. We proposed that compression stress formed lithospheric scale structures playing as a reserved lane for the upwelling of mantle material during the hotspot transit. The interaction between lithospheric folding and the hotspot emplacement can be also responsible for the irregularly spacing, and anomalous alignments, of individual islands and seamounts belonging to the Monchique - Madeira hotspot.

Prestazioni energetico-ambientali di sistemi cogenerativi avanzati e analisi di casi applicativi

Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di analizzare dapprima l’impatto ambientale di tali impianti e poi analizzare il contributo effettivo che oggi la tecnologia innovativa dei cicli Rankine organici può dare nella valorizzazione elettrica del calore di scarto di processi industriali, focalizzando l’obiettivo principalmente sulle turbine a gas ed eseguendo un caso di studio in un settore ancora poco esplorato da questa tecnologia, quello Oil&Gas. Dopo aver effettuato il censimento degli impianti a fonti fossili e rinnovabili, cogenerativi e non, presenti in Emilia-Romagna, è stato sviluppato un software chiamato MiniBref che permette di simulare il funzionamento di una qualsiasi centrale termoelettrica grazie alla possibilità di combinare la tecnologia dell’impianto con il tipo di combustibile consentendo la valutazione delle emissioni inquinanti ed i potenziali di inquinamento. Successivamente verranno illustrati gli ORC, partendo dalle caratteristiche impiantistiche e termodinamiche fino ad arrivare alla scelta del fluido organico, fondamentale per le performance del ciclo. Dopo aver effettuato una ricognizione dello stato dell’arte delle applicazioni industriali degli ORC nel recupero termico, verranno eseguite simulazioni numeriche per ricostruire gli ORC ed avere una panoramica il più completa ed attendibile delle prestazioni effettive di questi sistemi. In ultimo verranno illustrati i risultati di un caso di studio che vede l’adozione di recupero mediante ciclo organico in un’installazione esistente del settore Oil&Gas. Si effettuerà uno studio delle prestazione dell’impianto al variare delle pressioni massime e minime del ciclo ed al variare del fluido impiegato al fine di mostrare come questi parametri influenzino non solo le performance ma anche le caratteristiche impiantistiche da adottare. A conclusione del lavoro si riporteranno i risultati relativi all’analisi condotte considerando l’impianto ai carichi parziali ed in assetto cogenerativo.

Kinematic models of interseismic deformation from inversion of GPS and InSAR measurements to estimate fault parameters and coupling degree

We have used kinematic models in two Italian regions to reproduce surface interseismic velocities obtained from InSAR and GPS measurements. We have considered a Block modeling, BM, approach to evaluate which fault system is actively accommodating the occurring deformation in both considered areas. We have performed a study for the Umbria-Marche Apennines, obtaining that the tectonic extension observed by GPS measurements is explained by the active contribution of at least two fault systems, one of which is the Alto Tiberina fault, ATF. We have estimated also the interseismic coupling distribution for the ATF using a 3D surface and the result shows an interesting correlation between the microseismicity and the uncoupled fault portions. The second area analyzed concerns the Gargano promontory for which we have used jointly the available InSAR and GPS velocities. Firstly we have attached the two datasets to the same terrestrial reference frame and then using a simple dislocation approach, we have estimated the best fault parameters reproducing the available data, providing a solution corresponding to the Mattinata fault. Subsequently we have considered within a BM analysis both GPS and InSAR datasets in order to evaluate if the Mattinata fault may accommodate the deformation occurring in the central Adriatic due to the relative motion between the North-Adriatic and South-Adriatic plates. We obtain that the deformation occurring in that region should be accommodated by more that one fault system, that is however difficult to detect since the poor coverage of geodetic measurement offshore of the Gargano promontory. Finally we have performed also the estimate of the interseismic coupling distribution for the Mattinata fault, obtaining a shallow coupling pattern. Both of coupling distributions found using the BM approach have been tested by means of resolution checkerboard tests and they demonstrate that the coupling patterns depend on the geodetic data positions.

A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.