A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

Foetal heart rate recording: analysis and comparison of different methodologies

Monitoring foetal health is a very important task in clinical practice to appropriately plan pregnancy management and delivery. In the third trimester of pregnancy, ultrasound cardiotocography is the most employed diagnostic technique: foetal heart rate and uterine contractions signals are simultaneously recorded and analysed in order to ascertain foetal health. Because ultrasound cardiotocography interpretation still lacks of complete reliability, new parameters and methods of interpretation, or alternative methodologies, are necessary to further support physicians’ decisions. To this aim, in this thesis, foetal phonocardiography and electrocardiography are considered as different techniques. Further, variability of foetal heart rate is thoroughly studied. Frequency components and their modifications can be analysed by applying a time-frequency approach, for a distinct understanding of the spectral components and their change over time related to foetal reactions to internal and external stimuli (such as uterine contractions). Such modifications of the power spectrum can be a sign of autonomic nervous system reactions and therefore represent additional, objective information about foetal reactivity and health. However, some limits of ultrasonic cardiotocography still remain, such as in long-term foetal surveillance, which is often recommendable mainly in risky pregnancies. In these cases, the fully non-invasive acoustic recording, foetal phonocardiography, through maternal abdomen, represents a valuable alternative to the ultrasonic cardiotocography. Unfortunately, the so recorded foetal heart sound signal is heavily loaded by noise, thus the determination of the foetal heart rate raises serious signal processing issues. A new algorithm for foetal heart rate estimation from foetal phonocardiographic recordings is presented in this thesis. Different filtering and enhancement techniques, to enhance the first foetal heart sounds, were applied, so that different signal processing techniques were implemented, evaluated and compared, by identifying the strategy characterized on average by the best results. In particular, phonocardiographic signals were recorded simultaneously to ultrasonic cardiotocographic signals in order to compare the two foetal heart rate series (the one estimated by the developed algorithm and the other provided by cardiotocographic device). The algorithm performances were tested on phonocardiographic signals recorded on pregnant women, showing reliable foetal heart rate signals, very close to the ultrasound cardiotocographic recordings, considered as reference. The algorithm was also tested by using a foetal phonocardiographic recording simulator developed and presented in this research thesis. The target was to provide a software for simulating recordings relative to different foetal conditions and recordings situations and to use it as a test tool for comparing and assessing different foetal heart rate extraction algorithms. Since there are few studies about foetal heart sounds time characteristics and frequency content and the available literature is poor and not rigorous in this area, a data collection pilot study was also conducted with the purpose of specifically characterising both foetal and maternal heart sounds. Finally, in this thesis, the use of foetal phonocardiographic and electrocardiographic methodology and their combination, are presented in order to detect foetal heart rate and other functioning anomalies. The developed methodologies, suitable for longer-term assessment, were able to detect heart beat events correctly, such as first and second heart sounds and QRS waves. The detection of such events provides reliable measures of foetal heart rate, potentially information about measurement of the systolic time intervals and foetus circulatory impedance.

A hybrid technology for parallel recording of single ion channels

Hybrid technologies, thanks to the convergence of integrated microelectronic devices and new class of microfluidic structures could open new perspectives to the way how nanoscale events are discovered, monitored and controlled. The key point of this thesis is to evaluate the impact of such an approach into applications of ion-channel High Throughput Screening (HTS)platforms. This approach offers promising opportunities for the development of new classes of sensitive, reliable and cheap sensors. There are numerous advantages of embedding microelectronic readout structures strictly coupled to sensing elements. On the one hand the signal-to-noise-ratio is increased as a result of scaling. On the other, the readout miniaturization allows organization of sensors into arrays, increasing the capability of the platform in terms of number of acquired data, as required in the HTS approach, to improve sensing accuracy and reliabiity. However, accurate interface design is required to establish efficient communication between ionic-based and electronic-based signals. The work made in this thesis will show a first example of a complete parallel readout system with single ion channel resolution, using a compact and scalable hybrid architecture suitable to be interfaced to large array of sensors, ensuring simultaneous signal recording and smart control of the signal-to-noise ratio and bandwidth trade off. More specifically, an array of microfluidic polymer structures, hosting artificial lipid bilayers blocks where single ion channel pores are embededed, is coupled with an array of ultra-low noise current amplifiers for signal amplification and data processing. As demonstrating working example, the platform was used to acquire ultra small currents derived by single non-covalent molecular binding between alpha-hemolysin pores and beta-cyclodextrin molecules in artificial lipid membranes.

Pattern peristaltico uterino nell'adenomiosi isolata: studio prospettico

Obiettivi dello studio: valutare con l’ecografia transvaginale la peristalsi uterina in fase periovulatoria in donne con adenomiosi isolata, confrontandola con un gruppo di controllo e, secondariamente, valutare il grado di accordo tra gli sperimentatori nella descrizione dei pattern di contrattilità. Disegno dello studio: studio osservazione prospettico condotto presso il Policlinico S. Orsola- Malpighi di Bologna, Italia. Materiali e Metodi: sono state reclutate pazienti afferenti al Centro per valutazione ambulatoriale, suddivise sulla base dei criteri di inclusione ed esclusione nei gruppi A (adenomiosi) e B (controlli) e sono state sottoposte da un unico ecografista esperto a ecografia transvaginale con registrazione di un video della durata di 180 secondi della scansione sagittale dell’utero. La registrazione è stata rivalutata off line da due sperimentatori esperti ecografisti, non a conoscenza della storia clinica delle pazienti e in cieco l’uno rispetto all’altro, che hanno descritto il pattern contrattile. È stata stimata una numerosità campionaria di 18 pazienti per gruppo per ottenere una differenza del 20% nell’obiettivo primario con una significatività del 5% (power 80%). Risultati: di 51 pazienti reclutate nello studio, a seguito di drop out 36 sono state sottoposte alla videoregistrazione ecografica (18 per gruppo). Il pattern peristaltico nel gruppo A è risultato alterato in maniera statisticamente significativa rispetto al gruppo B con un p value= 0,02. Sono stati osservati un pattern retrogrado nel 27,8% vs 72,2%, anterogrado del 11,1% vs 16,7%, opposto 38,9% vs 5,6% e random nel 22,2% vs 5,6%, rispettivamente nel gruppo A e B. Il calcolo dell’accordo interosservatore ha portato a un κ value di 0,92. Conclusioni: l’adenomiosi isolata è associata a disperistalsi uterina, che concorrerebbe nello sviluppo dei sintomi tipici dell’adenomiosi. L’ecografia transvaginale rappresenta uno strumento accessibile e utile nella valutazione della contrattilità uterina in quanto il grado di accordo tra gli sperimentatori è ottimo.