Landslide susceptibility in the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a project launched by the Chinese Government whose main goal is to connect more than 65 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania developing infrastructures and facilities. To support the prevention or mitigation of landslide hazards, which may affect the mainland infrastructures of BRI, a landslide susceptibility analysis in the countries involved has been carried out. Due to the large study area, the analysis has been carried out using a multi-scale approach which consists of mapping susceptibility firstly at continental scale, and then at national scale. The study area selected for the continental assessment is the south-Asia, where a pixel-based landslide susceptibility map has been carried out using the Weight of Evidence method and validated by Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Then, we selected the regions of west Tajikistan and north-east India to be investigated at national scale. Data scarcity is a common condition for many countries involved into the Initiative. Therefore in addition to the landslide susceptibility assessment of west Tajikistan, which has been conducted using a Generalized Additive Model and validated by ROC curves, we have examined, in the same study area, the effect of incomplete landslide dataset on the prediction capacity of statistical models. The entire PhD research activity has been conducted using only open data and open-source software. In this context, to support the analysis of the last years an open-source plugin for QGIS has been implemented. The SZ-tool allows the user to make susceptibility assessments from the data preprocessing, susceptibility mapping, to the final classification. All the output data of the analysis conducted are freely available and downloadable. This text describes the research activity of the last three years. Each chapter reports the text of the articles published in international scientific journal during the PhD.

Leopoli-Cencelle beyond virtual reality Documentazione, interpretazione e comprensione di una città medievale

La città medievale di Leopoli-Cencelle (fondata da Papa Leone IV nell‘854 d.C. non lontano da Civitavecchia) è stata oggetto di studio e di periodiche campagne di scavo a partire dal 1994. Le stratigrafie investigate con metodi tradizionali, hanno portato alla luce le numerose trasformazioni che la città ha subìto nel corso della sua esistenza in vita. Case, torri, botteghe e strati di vissuto, sono stati interpretati sin dall’inizio dello scavo basandosi sulla documentazione tradizionale e bi-dimensionale, legata al dato cartaceo e al disegno. Il presente lavoro intende re-interpretare i dati di scavo con l’ausilio delle tecnologie digitali. Per il progetto sono stati utilizzati un laser scanner, tecniche di Computer Vision e modellazione 3D. I tre metodi sono stati combinati in modo da poter visualizzare tridimensionalmente gli edifici abitativi scavati, con la possibilità di sovrapporre semplici modelli 3D che permettano di formulare ipotesi differenti sulla forma e sull’uso degli spazi. Modellare spazio e tempo offrendo varie possibilità di scelta, permette di combinare i dati reali tridimensionali, acquisiti con un laser scanner, con semplici modelli filologici in 3D e offre l’opportunità di valutare diverse possibili interpretazioni delle caratteristiche dell’edificio in base agli spazi, ai materiali, alle tecniche costruttive. Lo scopo del progetto è andare oltre la Realtà Virtuale, con la possibilità di analizzare i resti e di re-interpretare la funzione di un edificio, sia in fase di scavo che a scavo concluso. Dal punto di vista della ricerca, la possibilità di visualizzare le ipotesi sul campo favorisce una comprensione più profonda del contesto archeologico. Un secondo obiettivo è la comunicazione a un pubblico di “non-archeologi”. Si vuole offrire a normali visitatori la possibilità di comprendere e sperimentare il processo interpretativo, fornendo loro qualcosa in più rispetto a una sola ipotesi definitiva.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.