9 resultados para Natural risk

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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The effector function of natural killer (NK) cells is regulated by activating and inhibitory receptors, termed killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs). In haploidentical T-cell depleted transplantation the donor/recipient KIR mismatch significantly impacts on NK-mediated tumor cell killing, particularly in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Thirty-four high risk AML patients entered a phase I-II study of adoptive NK-cell based immunotherapy and were screened for the availability of one haploidentical KIR ligand mismatched donor. Thirteen of them resulted as having one suitable donor. NK cells were enriched from steady-state leukaphereses by using a double-step immunomagnetic separation system, consisting in depletion of CD3+ T cells followed by positive selection of CD56+ NK cells. CD56+ cells were enriched from 7,70% (1,26-11,70) to 93,50% (66,41-99,20) (median recovery 53,05% (30,97-72,85), median T-depletion 3,03 log (2,15-4,52) viability >92%) and their citotoxic activity was inalterate. All patients (4 progressions, 1 partial remission and 8 complete remissions) received NK cell infusion which was preceeded by immunosuppressive chemotherapy (fludarabine and cyclophosphamide) and followed by interleukin 2 injections. The median number of reinfused NK cells was 2,74x10(e)6/kg(1,11-5,00) and contamining CD3+ T cells were always less than 1x10(e)5/kg. The procedure was well-tolerated and no significant toxicity, including GvHD, related to NK cell infusion was observed. The donor NK cells were demonstrated in 5/10 patients. Among the 8 patients in complete remission 5 patients are stable after 18, 15, 4, 2 months of follow-up. Three other patients relapsed after 2 and 7 months. The patient in partial remission obtained a complete remission, which lasted for 6 months. The 4 patients with active/progressive disease showed the persistence of disease. This clinical observation may be correlated with in vitro studies, indicating that AML cells are capable to induce NK cell apoptosis in a dose-depend manner. In summery, a two-step enrichment of CD56+ NK cells allows the collection of a suitable number of target cells to be used as adoptive immunotherapy in AML patients. Infusion of NK cells is feasible and safe and adoptively transferred NK cells can be detected after infusion.

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Kidney transplantation is the best treatment option for the restoration of excretory and endocrine kidney function in patients with end-stage renal disease. The success of the transplant is linked to the genetic compatibility between donor and recipient, and upon progress in surgery and immunosuppressive therapy. Numerous studies have established the importance of innate immunity in transplantation tolerance, in particular natural killer (NK) cells represent a population of cells involved in defense against infectious agents and tumor cells. NK cells express on their surface the Killer-cell Immunoglobulin-like Receptors (KIR) which, by recognizing and binding to MHC class I antigens, prevent the killing of autologous cells. In solid organ transplantation context, and in particular the kidney, recent studies show some correlation between the incompatibility KIR / HLA and outcome of transplantation so as to represent an interesting perspective, especially as regards setting of immunosuppressive therapy. The purpose of this study was therefore to assess whether the incompatibility between recipient KIR receptors and HLA class I ligands of the donor could be a useful predictor in order to improve the survival of the transplanted kidney and also to select patients who might benefit of a reduced regimen. One hundred and thirteen renal transplant patients from 1999 to 2005 were enrolled. Genomic DNA was extracted for each of them and their donors and genotyping of HLA A, B, C and 14 KIR genes was carried out. Data analysis was conducted on two case-control studies: one aimed at assessing the outcome of acute rejection and the other to assess the long term transplant outcome. The results showed that two genes, KIR2DS1 and KIR3DS1, are associated with the development of acute rejection (p = 0.02 and p = 0.05, respectively). The presence of the KIR2DS3 gene is associated with a better performance of serum creatinine and glomerular filtration rate (MDRD) over time (4 and 5 years after transplantation, p <0.05), while in the presence of ligand, the serum creatinine and MDRD trend seems to get worse in the long term. The analysis performed on the population, according to whether there was deterioration of renal function or not in the long term, showed that the absence of the KIR2DL1 gene is strongly associated with an increase of 20% of the creatinine value at 5 years, with a relative risk to having a greater creatinine level than the median 5-year equal to 2.7 95% (95% CI: 1.7788 - 2.6631). Finally, the presence of a kidney resulting negative for HLA-A3 / A11, compared to a positive result, in patients with KIR3DL2, showed a relative risk of having a serum creatinine above the median at 5 years after transplantation of 0.6609 (95% CI: 0.4529 -0.9643), suggesting a protective effect given to the absence of this ligand.

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Terrestrial radioactivity for most individual is the major contributor to the total dose and is mostly provided by 238U, 232Th and 40K radionuclides. In particular indoor radioactivity is principally due to 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendent of 238U, second cause of lung cancer after cigarettes smoking. Vulsini Volcanic District is a well known quaternary volcanic area located between the northern Latium and southern Tuscany (Central Italy). It is characterized by an high natural radiation background resulting from the high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K in the volcanic products. In this context, subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust has given rise to U, Th and K enriched melts. Almost every ancient village and town located in this part of Italy has been built with volcanic rocks pertaining to the Vulsini Volcanic District. The radiological risk of living in this area has been estimated considering separately: a. the risk associated with buildings made of volcanic products and built on volcanic rock substrates b. the risk associated to soil characteristics. The former has been evaluated both using direct 222Rn indoor measurements and simulations of “standard rooms” built with the tuffs and lavas from the Vulsini Volcanic District investigated in this work. The latter has been carried out by using in situ measurements of 222Rn activity in the soil gases. A radon risk map for the Bolsena village has been developed using soil radon measurements integrating geological information. Data of airborne radioactivity in ambient aerosol at two elevated stations in Emilia Romagna (North Italy) under the influence of Fukushima plume have been collected, effective doses have been calculated and an extensive comparison between doses associated with artificial and natural sources in different area have been described and discussed.

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Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

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This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

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Over the last decades the impact of natural disasters to the global environment is becoming more and more severe. The number of disasters has dramatically increased, as well as the cost to the global economy and the number of people affected. Among the natural disaster, flood catastrophes are considered to be the most costly, devastating, broad extent and frequent, because of the tremendous fatalities, injuries, property damage, economic and social disruption they cause to the humankind. In the last thirty years, the World has suffered from severe flooding and the huge impact of floods has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructures, disruption of economic activity and the loss of property for worth billions of dollars. In this context, satellite remote sensing, along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), has become a key tool in flood risk management analysis. Remote sensing for supporting various aspects of flood risk management was investigated in the present thesis. In particular, the research focused on the use of satellite images for flood mapping and monitoring, damage assessment and risk assessment. The contribution of satellite remote sensing for the delineation of flood prone zones, the identification of damaged areas and the development of hazard maps was explored referring to selected cases of study.

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The severe accidents deriving from the impact of natural events on industrial installations have become a matter of growing concern in the last decades. In the literature, these events are typically referred to as Natech accidents. Several peculiarities distinguish them from conventional industrial accidents caused by internal factors, such as the possible occurrence of multiple simultaneous failures, and the enhanced probability of cascading events. The research project provides a comprehensive overview of Natech accidents that occurred in the Chemical and Process Industry, allowing for the identification of relevant aspects of Natech events. Quantified event trees and probability of ignition are derived from the collected dataset, providing a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The investigation of past Natech accidents also demonstrated that wildfires may cause technological accidents. Climate change and global warming are promoting the conditions for wildfire development and rapid spread. Hence, ensuring the safety of industrial facilities exposed to wildfires is paramount. This was achieved defining safety distances between wildland vegetation and industrial equipment items. In addition, an innovative methodology for the vulnerability assessment of Natech and Domino scenarios triggered by wildfires was developed. The approach accounted for the dynamic behaviour of wildfire events and related technological scenarios. Besides, the performance of the emergency response and the related intervention time in the case of cascading events caused by natural events were evaluated. Overall, the tools presented in this thesis represent a step forward in the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natech accidents. The methodologies developed also provide a solid basis for the definition of effective strategies for risk mitigation and reduction. These aspects are crucial to improve the resilience of industrial plants to natural hazards, especially considering the effects that climate change may have on the severity of such events.

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Distributed argumentation technology is a computational approach incorporating argumentation reasoning mechanisms within multi-agent systems. For the formal foundations of distributed argumentation technology, in this thesis we conduct a principle-based analysis of structured argumentation as well as abstract multi-agent and abstract bipolar argumentation. The results of the principle-based approach of these theories provide an overview and guideline for further applications of the theories. Moreover, in this thesis we explore distributed argumentation technology using distributed ledgers. We envision an Intelligent Human-input-based Blockchain Oracle (IHiBO), an artificial intelligence tool for storing argumentation reasoning. We propose a decentralized and secure architecture for conducting decision-making, addressing key concerns of trust, transparency, and immutability. We model fund management with agent argumentation in IHiBO and analyze its compliance with European fund management legal frameworks. We illustrate how bipolar argumentation balances pros and cons in legal reasoning in a legal divorce case, and how the strength of arguments in natural language can be represented in structured arguments. Finally, we discuss how distributed argumentation technology can be used to advance risk management, regulatory compliance of distributed ledgers for financial securities, and dialogue techniques.

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Natural events are a widely recognized hazard for industrial sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are handled, due to the possible generation of cascading events resulting in severe technological accidents (Natech scenarios). Natural events may damage storage and process equipment containing hazardous substances, that may be released leading to major accident scenarios called Natech events. The need to assess the risk associated with Natech scenarios is growing and methodologies were developed to allow the quantification of Natech risk, considering both point sources and linear sources as pipelines. A key element of these procedures is the use of vulnerability models providing an estimation of the damage probability of equipment or pipeline segment as a result of the impact of the natural event. Therefore, the first aim of the PhD project was to outline the state of the art of vulnerability models for equipment and pipelines subject to natural events such as floods, earthquakes, and wind. Moreover, the present PhD project also aimed at the development of new vulnerability models in order to fill some gaps in literature. In particular, a vulnerability model for vertical equipment subject to wind and to flood were developed. Finally, in order to improve the calculation of Natech risk for linear sources an original methodology was developed for Natech quantitative risk assessment methodology for pipelines subject to earthquakes. Overall, the results obtained are a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The tools developed open the way to the inclusion of new equipment in the analysis of Natech events, and the methodology for the assessment of linear risk sources as pipelines provides an important tool for a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of Natech risk.