9 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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We present a non linear technique to invert strong motion records with the aim of obtaining the final slip and rupture velocity distributions on the fault plane. In this thesis, the ground motion simulation is obtained evaluating the representation integral in the frequency. The Green’s tractions are computed using the discrete wave-number integration technique that provides the full wave-field in a 1D layered propagation medium. The representation integral is computed through a finite elements technique, based on a Delaunay’s triangulation on the fault plane. The rupture velocity is defined on a coarser regular grid and rupture times are computed by integration of the eikonal equation. For the inversion, the slip distribution is parameterized by 2D overlapping Gaussian functions, which can easily relate the spectrum of the possible solutions with the minimum resolvable wavelength, related to source-station distribution and data processing. The inverse problem is solved by a two-step procedure aimed at separating the computation of the rupture velocity from the evaluation of the slip distribution, the latter being a linear problem, when the rupture velocity is fixed. The non-linear step is solved by optimization of an L2 misfit function between synthetic and real seismograms, and solution is searched by the use of the Neighbourhood Algorithm. The conjugate gradient method is used to solve the linear step instead. The developed methodology has been applied to the M7.2, Iwate Nairiku Miyagi, Japan, earthquake. The estimated magnitude seismic moment is 2.6326 dyne∙cm that corresponds to a moment magnitude MW 6.9 while the mean the rupture velocity is 2.0 km/s. A large slip patch extends from the hypocenter to the southern shallow part of the fault plane. A second relatively large slip patch is found in the northern shallow part. Finally, we gave a quantitative estimation of errors associates with the parameters.

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Precipitation retrieval over high latitudes, particularly snowfall retrieval over ice and snow, using satellite-based passive microwave spectrometers, is currently an unsolved problem. The challenge results from the large variability of microwave emissivity spectra for snow and ice surfaces, which can mimic, to some degree, the spectral characteristics of snowfall. This work focuses on the investigation of a new snowfall detection algorithm specific for high latitude regions, based on a combination of active and passive sensors able to discriminate between snowing and non snowing areas. The space-borne Cloud Profiling Radar (on CloudSat), the Advanced Microwave Sensor units A and B (on NOAA-16) and the infrared spectrometer MODIS (on AQUA) have been co-located for 365 days, from October 1st 2006 to September 30th, 2007. CloudSat products have been used as truth to calibrate and validate all the proposed algorithms. The methodological approach followed can be summarised into two different steps. In a first step, an empirical search for a threshold, aimed at discriminating the case of no snow, was performed, following Kongoli et al. [2003]. This single-channel approach has not produced appropriate results, a more statistically sound approach was attempted. Two different techniques, which allow to compute the probability above and below a Brightness Temperature (BT) threshold, have been used on the available data. The first technique is based upon a Logistic Distribution to represent the probability of Snow given the predictors. The second technique, defined Bayesian Multivariate Binary Predictor (BMBP), is a fully Bayesian technique not requiring any hypothesis on the shape of the probabilistic model (such as for instance the Logistic), which only requires the estimation of the BT thresholds. The results obtained show that both methods proposed are able to discriminate snowing and non snowing condition over the Polar regions with a probability of correct detection larger than 0.5, highlighting the importance of a multispectral approach.

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Throughout the alpine domain, shallow landslides represent a serious geologic hazard, often causing severe damages to infrastructures, private properties, natural resources and in the most catastrophic events, threatening human lives. Landslides are a major factor of landscape evolution in mountainous and hilly regions and represent a critical issue for mountainous land management, since they cause loss of pastoral lands. In several alpine contexts, shallow landsliding distribution is strictly connected to the presence and condition of vegetation on the slopes. With the aid of high-resolution satellite images, it's possible to divide automatically the mountainous territory in land cover classes, which contribute with different magnitude to the stability of the slopes. The aim of this research is to combine EO (Earth Observation) land cover maps with ground-based measurements of the land cover properties. In order to achieve this goal, a new procedure has been developed to automatically detect grass mantle degradation patterns from satellite images. Moreover, innovative surveying techniques and instruments are tested to measure in situ the shear strength of grass mantle and the geomechanical and geotechnical properties of these alpine soils. Shallow landsliding distribution is assessed with the aid of physically based models, which use the EO-based map to distribute the resistance parameters across the landscape.

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For its particular position and the complex geological history, the Northern Apennines has been considered as a natural laboratory to apply several kinds of investigations. By the way, it is complicated to joint all the knowledge about the Northern Apennines in a unique picture that explains the structural and geological emplacement that produced it. The main goal of this thesis is to put together all information on the deformation - in the crust and at depth - of this region and to describe a geodynamical model that takes account of it. To do so, we have analyzed the pattern of deformation in the crust and in the mantle. In both cases the deformation has been studied using always information recovered from earthquakes, although using different techniques. In particular the shallower deformation has been studied using seismic moment tensors information. For our purpose we used the methods described in Arvidsson and Ekstrom (1998) that allowing the use in the inversion of surface waves [and not only of the body waves as the Centroid Moment Tensor (Dziewonski et al., 1981) one] allow to determine seismic source parameters for earthquakes with magnitude as small as 4.0. We applied this tool in the Northern Apennines and through this activity we have built up the Italian CMT dataset (Pondrelli et al., 2006) and the pattern of seismic deformation using the Kostrov (1974) method on a regular grid of 0.25 degree cells. We obtained a map of lateral variations of the pattern of seismic deformation on different layers of depth, taking into account the fact that shallow earthquakes (within 15 km of depth) in the region occur everywhere while most of events with a deeper hypocenter (15-40 km) occur only in the outer part of the belt, on the Adriatic side. For the analysis of the deep deformation, i.e. that occurred in the mantle, we used the anisotropy information characterizing the structure below the Northern Apennines. The anisotropy is an earth properties that in the crust is due to the presence of aligned fluid filled cracks or alternating isotropic layers with different elastic properties while in the mantle the most important cause of seismic anisotropy is the lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of the mantle minerals as the olivine. This last is a highly anisotropic mineral and tends to align its fast crystallographic axes (a-axis) parallel to the astenospheric flow as a response to finite strain induced by geodynamic processes. The seismic anisotropy pattern of a region is measured utilizing the shear wave splitting phenomenon (that is the seismological analogue to optical birefringence). Here, to do so, we apply on teleseismic earthquakes recorded on stations located in the study region, the Sileny and Plomerova (1996) approach. The results are analyzed on the basis of their lateral and vertical variations to better define the earth structure beneath Northern Apennines. We find different anisotropic domains, a Tuscany and an Adria one, with a pattern of seismic anisotropy which laterally varies in a similar way respect to the seismic deformation. Moreover, beneath the Adriatic region the distribution of the splitting parameters is so complex to request an appropriate analysis. Therefore we applied on our data the code of Menke and Levin (2003) which allows to look for different models of structures with multilayer anisotropy. We obtained that the structure beneath the Po Plain is probably even more complicated than expected. On the basis of the results obtained for this thesis, added with those from previous works, we suggest that slab roll-back, which created the Apennines and opened the Tyrrhenian Sea, evolved in the north boundary of Northern Apennines in a different way from its southern part. In particular, the trench retreat developed primarily south of our study region, with an eastward roll-back. In the northern portion of the orogen, after a first stage during which the retreat was perpendicular to the trench, it became oblique with respect to the structure.

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The Poxviruses are a family of double stranded DNA (dsDNA) viruses that cause disease in many species, both vertebrate and invertebrate. Their genomes range in size from 135 to 365 kbp and show conservation in both organization and content. In particular, the central genomic regions of the chordopoxvirus subfamily (those capable of infecting vertebrates) contain 88 genes which are present in all the virus species characterised to date and which mostly occur in the same order and orientation. In contrast, however, the terminal regions of the genomes frequently contain genes that are species or genera-specific and that are not essential for the growth of the virus in vitro but instead often encode factors with important roles in vivo including modulation of the host immune response to infection and determination of the host range of the virus. The Parapoxviruses (PPV), of which Orf virus is the prototypic species, represent a genus within the chordopoxvirus subfamily of Poxviridae and are characterised by their ability to infect ruminants and humans. The genus currently contains four recognised species of virus, bovine papular stomatitis virus (BPSV) and pseudocowpox virus (PCPV) both of which infect cattle, orf virus (OV) that infects sheep and goats, and parapoxvirus of red deer in New Zealand (PVNZ). The ORFV genome has been fully sequenced, as has that of BPSV, and is ~138 kb in length encoding ~132 genes. The vast majority of these genes allow the virus to replicate in the cytoplasm of the infected host cell and therefore encode proteins involved in replication, transcription and metabolism of nucleic acids. These genes are well conserved between all known genera of poxviruses. There is however another class of genes, located at either end of the linear dsDNA genome, that encode proteins which are non-essential for replication and generally dictate host range and virulence of the virus. The non-essential genes are often the most variable within and between species of virus and therefore are potentially useful for diagnostic purposes. Given their role in subverting the host-immune response to infection they are also targets for novel therapeutics. The function of only a relatively small number of these proteins has been elucidated and there are several genes whose function still remains obscure principally because there is little similarity between them and proteins of known function in current sequence databases. It is thought that by selectively removing some of the virulence genes, or at least neutralising the proteins in some way, current vaccines could be improved. The evolution of poxviruses has been proposed to be an adaptive process involving frequent events of gene gain and loss, such that the virus co-evolves with its specific host. Gene capture or horizontal gene transfer from the host to the virus is considered an important source of new viral genes including those likely to be involved in host range and those enabling the virus to interfere with the host immune response to infection. Given the low rate of nucleotide substitution, recombination can be seen as an essential evolutionary driving force although it is likely underestimated. Recombination in poxviruses is intimately linked to DNA replication with both viral and cellular proteins participate in this recombination-dependent replication. It has been shown, in other poxvirus genera, that recombination between isolates and perhaps even between species does occur, thereby providing another mechanism for the acquisition of new genes and for the rapid evolution of viruses. Such events may result in viruses that have a selective advantage over others, for example in re-infections (a characteristic of the PPV), or in viruses that are able to jump the species barrier and infect new hosts. Sequence data related to viral strains isolated from goats suggest that possible recombination events may have occurred between OV and PCPV (Ueda et al. 2003). The recombination events are frequent during poxvirus replication and comparative genomic analysis of several poxvirus species has revealed that recombinations occur frequently on the right terminal region. Intraspecific recombination can occur between strains of the same PPV species, but also interspecific recombination can happen depending on enough sequence similarity to enable recombination between distinct PPV species. The most important pre-requisite for a successful recombination is the coinfection of the individual host by different virus strains or species. Consequently, the following factors affecting the distribution of different viruses to shared target cells need to be considered: dose of inoculated virus, time interval between inoculation of the first and the second virus, distance between the marker mutations, genetic homology. At present there are no available data on the replication dynamics of PPV in permissive and non permissive hosts and reguarding co-infetions there are no information on the interference mechanisms occurring during the simultaneous replication of viruses of different species. This work has been carried out to set up permissive substrates allowing the replication of different PPV species, in particular keratinocytes monolayers and organotypic skin cultures. Furthermore a method to isolate and expand ovine skin stem cells was has been set up to indeep further aspects of viral cellular tropism during natural infection. The study produced important data to elucidate the replication dynamics of OV and PCPV virus in vitro as well as the mechanisms of interference that can arise during co-infection with different viral species. Moreover, the analysis carried on the genomic right terminal region of PCPV 1303/05 contributed to a better knowledge of the viral genes involved in host interaction and pathogenesis as well as to locate recombination breakpoints and genetic homologies between PPV species. Taken together these data filled several crucial gaps for the study of interspecific recombinations of PPVs which are thought to be important for a better understanding of the viral evolution and to improve the biosafety of antiviral therapy and PPV-based vectors.

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The mitochondrion is an essential cytoplasmic organelle that provides most of the energy necessary for eukaryotic cell physiology. Mitochondrial structure and functions are maintained by proteins of both mitochondrial and nuclear origin. These organelles are organized in an extended network that dynamically fuses and divides. Mitochondrial morphology results from the equilibrium between fusion and fission processes, controlled by a family of “mitochondria-shaping” proteins. It is becoming clear that defects in mitochondrial dynamics can impair mitochondrial respiration, morphology and motility, leading to apoptotic cell death in vitro and more or less severe neurodegenerative disorders in vivo in humans. Mutations in OPA1, a nuclear encoded mitochondrial protein, cause autosomal Dominant Optic Atrophy (DOA), a heterogeneous blinding disease characterized by retinal ganglion cell degeneration leading to optic neuropathy (Delettre et al., 2000; Alexander et al., 2000). OPA1 is a mitochondrial dynamin-related guanosine triphosphatase (GTPase) protein involved in mitochondrial network dynamics, cytochrome c storage and apoptosis. This protein is anchored or associated on the inner mitochondrial membrane facing the intermembrane space. Eight OPA1 isoforms resulting from alternative splicing combinations of exon 4, 4b and 5b have been described (Delettre et al., 2001). These variants greatly vary among diverse organs and the presence of specific isoforms has been associated with various mitochondrial functions. The different spliced exons encode domains included in the amino-terminal region and contribute to determine OPA1 functions (Olichon et al., 2006). It has been shown that exon 4, that is conserved throughout evolution, confers functions to OPA1 involved in maintenance of the mitochondrial membrane potential and in the fusion of the network. Conversely, exon 4b and exon 5b, which are vertebrate specific, are involved in regulation of cytochrome c release from mitochondria, and activation of apoptosis, a process restricted to vertebrates (Olichon et al., 2007). While Mgm1p has been identified thanks to its role in mtDNA maintenance, it is only recently that OPA1 has been linked to mtDNA stability. Missense mutations in OPA1 cause accumulation of multiple deletions in skeletal muscle. The syndrome associated to these mutations (DOA-1 plus) is complex, consisting of a combination of dominant optic atrophy, progressive external ophtalmoplegia, peripheral neuropathy, ataxia and deafness (Amati- Bonneau et al., 2008; Hudson et al., 2008). OPA1 is the fifth gene associated with mtDNA “breakage syndrome” together with ANT1, PolG1-2 and TYMP (Spinazzola et al., 2009). In this thesis we show for the first time that specific OPA1 isoforms associated to exon 4b are important for mtDNA stability, by anchoring the nucleoids to the inner mitochondrial membrane. Our results clearly demonstrate that OPA1 isoforms including exon 4b are intimately associated to the maintenance of the mitochondrial genome, as their silencing leads to mtDNA depletion. The mechanism leading to mtDNA loss is associated with replication inhibition in cells where exon 4b containing isoforms were down-regulated. Furthermore silencing of exon 4b associated isoforms is responsible for alteration in mtDNA-nucleoids distribution in the mitochondrial network. In this study it was evidenced that OPA1 exon 4b isoform is cleaved to provide a 10kd peptide embedded in the inner membrane by a second transmembrane domain, that seems to be crucial for mitochondrial genome maintenance and does correspond to the second transmembrane domain of the yeasts orthologue encoded by MGM1 or Msp1, which is also mandatory for this process (Diot et al., 2009; Herlan et al., 2003). Furthermore in this thesis we show that the NT-OPA1-exon 4b peptide co-immuno-precipitates with mtDNA and specifically interacts with two major components of the mitochondrial nucleoids: the polymerase gamma and Tfam. Thus, from these experiments the conclusion is that NT-OPA1- exon 4b peptide contributes to the nucleoid anchoring in the inner mitochondrial membrane, a process that is required for the initiation of mtDNA replication and for the distribution of nucleoids along the network. These data provide new crucial insights in understanding the mechanism involved in maintenance of mtDNA integrity, because they clearly demonstrate that, besides genes implicated in mtDNA replications (i.e. polymerase gamma, Tfam, twinkle and genes involved in the nucleotide pool metabolism), OPA1 and mitochondrial membrane dynamics play also an important role. Noticeably, the effect on mtDNA is different depending on the specific OPA1 isoforms down-regulated, suggesting the involvement of two different combined mechanisms. Over two hundred OPA1 mutations, spread throughout the coding region of the gene, have been described to date, including substitutions, deletions or insertions. Some mutations are predicted to generate a truncated protein inducing haploinsufficiency, whereas the missense nucleotide substitutions result in aminoacidic changes which affect conserved positions of the OPA1 protein. So far, the functional consequences of OPA1 mutations in cells from DOA patients are poorly understood. Phosphorus MR spectroscopy in patients with the c.2708delTTAG deletion revealed a defect in oxidative phosphorylation in muscles (Lodi et al., 2004). An energetic impairment has been also show in fibroblasts with the severe OPA1 R445H mutation (Amati-Bonneau et al., 2005). It has been previously reported by our group that OPA1 mutations leading to haploinsufficiency are associated in fibroblasts to an oxidative phosphorylation dysfunction, mainly involving the respiratory complex I (Zanna et al., 2008). In this study we have evaluated the energetic efficiency of a panel of skin fibroblasts derived from DOA patients, five fibroblast cell lines with OPA1 mutations causing haploinsufficiency (DOA-H) and two cell lines bearing mis-sense aminoacidic substitutions (DOA-AA), and compared with control fibroblasts. Although both types of DOA fibroblasts maintained a similar ATP content when incubated in a glucose-free medium, i.e. when forced to utilize the oxidative phosphorylation only to produce ATP, the mitochondrial ATP synthesis through complex I, measured in digitonin-permeabilized cells, was significantly reduced in cells with OPA1 haploinsufficiency only, whereas it was similar to controls in cells with the missense substitutions. Furthermore, evaluation of the mitochondrial membrane potential (DYm) in the two fibroblast lines DOA-AA and in two DOA-H fibroblasts, namely those bearing the c.2819-2A>C mutation and the c.2708delTTAG microdeletion, revealed an anomalous depolarizing response to oligomycin in DOA-H cell lines only. This finding clearly supports the hypothesis that these mutations cause a significant alteration in the respiratory chain function, which can be unmasked only when the operation of the ATP synthase is prevented. Noticeably, oligomycin-induced depolarization in these cells was almost completely prevented by preincubation with cyclosporin A, a well known inhibitor of the permeability transition pore (PTP). This results is very important because it suggests for the first time that the voltage threshold for PTP opening is altered in DOA-H fibroblasts. Although this issue has not yet been addressed in the present study, several are the mechanisms that have been proposed to lead to PTP deregulation, including in particular increased reactive oxygen species production and alteration of Ca2+ homeostasis, whose role in DOA fibroblasts PTP opening is currently under investigation. Identification of the mechanisms leading to altered threshold for PTP regulation will help our understanding of the pathophysiology of DOA, but also provide a strategy for therapeutic intervention.

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The Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries represents the most recent research line in the international context, showing interest both towards the whole community and toward the identification and protection of all the “critical habitats” in which marine resources complete their life cycles. Using data coming from trawl surveys performed in the Northern and Central Adriatic from 1996 to 2010, this study provides the first attempt to appraise the status of the whole demersal community. It took into account not only fishery target species but also by-catch and discharge species by the use of a suite of biological indicators both at population and multi-specific level, allowing to have a global picture of the status of the demersal system. This study underlined the decline of extremely important species for the Adriatic fishery in recent years; adverse impact on catches is expected for these species in the coming years, since also minimum values of recruits recently were recorded. Both the excessive exploitation and environmental factors affected availability of resources. Moreover both distribution and nursery areas of the most important resources were pinpointed by means of geostatistical methods. The geospatial analysis also confirmed the presence of relevant recruitment areas in the North and Central Adriatic for several commercial species, as reported in the literature. The morphological and oceanographic features, the relevant rivers inflow together with the mosaic pattern of biocenoses with different food availability affected the location of the observed relevant nursery areas.

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Life is full of uncertainties. Legal rules should have a clear intention, motivation and purpose in order to diminish daily uncertainties. However, practice shows that their consequences are complex and hard to predict. For instance, tort law has the general objectives of deterring future negligent behavior and compensating the victims of someone else's negligence. Achieving these goals are particularly difficult in medical malpractice cases. To start with, when patients search for medical care they are typically sick in the first place. In case harm materializes during the treatment, it might be very hard to assess if it was due to substandard medical care or to the patient's poor health conditions. Moreover, the practice of medicine has a positive externality on the society, meaning that the design of legal rules is crucial: for instance, it should not result in physicians avoiding practicing their activity just because they are afraid of being sued even when they acted according to the standard level of care. The empirical literature on medical malpractice has been developing substantially in the past two decades, with the American case being the most studied one. Evidence from civil law tradition countries is more difficult to find. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the empirical literature on medical malpractice, using two civil law countries as a case-study: Spain and Italy. The goal of this thesis is to investigate, in the first place, some of the consequences of having two separate sub-systems (administrative and civil) coexisting within the same legal system, which is common in civil law tradition countries with a public national health system (such as Spain, France and Portugal). When this holds, different procedures might apply depending on the type of hospital where the injury took place (essentially whether it is a public hospital or a private hospital). Therefore, a patient injured in a public hospital should file a claim in administrative courts while a patient suffering an identical medical accident should file a claim in civil courts. A natural question that the reader might pose is why should both administrative and civil courts decide medical malpractice cases? Moreover, can this specialization of courts influence how judges decide medical malpractice cases? In the past few years, there was a general concern with patient safety, which is currently on the agenda of several national governments. Some initiatives have been taken at the international level, with the aim of preventing harm to patients during treatment and care. A negligently injured patient might present a claim against the health care provider with the aim of being compensated for the economic loss and for pain and suffering. In several European countries, health care is mainly provided by a public national health system, which means that if a patient harmed in a public hospital succeeds in a claim against the hospital, public expenditures increase because the State takes part in the litigation process. This poses a problem in a context of increasing national health expenditures and public debt. In Italy, with the aim of increasing patient safety, some regions implemented a monitoring system on medical malpractice claims. However, if properly implemented, this reform shall also allow for a reduction in medical malpractice insurance costs. This thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a review of the empirical literature on medical malpractice, where studies on outcomes and merit of claims, costs and defensive medicine are presented. Chapter 2 presents an empirical analysis of medical malpractice claims arriving to the Spanish Supreme Court. The focus is on reversal rates for civil and administrative decisions. Administrative decisions appealed by the plaintiff have the highest reversal rates. The results show a bias in lower administrative courts, which tend to focus on the State side. We provide a detailed explanation for these results, which can rely on the organization of administrative judges career. Chapter 3 assesses predictors of compensation in medical malpractice cases appealed to the Spanish Supreme Court and investigates the amount of damages attributed to patients. The results show horizontal equity between administrative and civil decisions (controlling for observable case characteristics) and vertical inequity (patients suffering more severe injuries tend to receive higher payouts). In order to execute these analyses, a database of medical malpractice decisions appealed to the Administrative and Civil Chambers of the Spanish Supreme Court from 2006 until 2009 (designated by the Spanish Supreme Court Medical Malpractice Dataset (SSCMMD)) has been created. A description of how the SSCMMD was built and of the Spanish legal system is presented as well. Chapter 4 includes an empirical investigation of the effect of a monitoring system for medical malpractice claims on insurance premiums. In Italy, some regions adopted this policy in different years, while others did not. The study uses data on insurance premiums from Italian public hospitals for the years 2001-2008. This is a significant difference as most of the studies use the insurance company as unit of analysis. Although insurance premiums have risen from 2001 to 2008, the increase was lower for regions adopting a monitoring system for medical claims. Possible implications of this system are also provided. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the main findings, describes possible future research and concludes.

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This thesis investigates a broad range of topics related to insurance, market power, and inequality, both from an empirical and a theoretical perspective. In the first chapter, I exploit the significant heterogeneity of the shocks hitting Ethiopian households and their heterogeneous response, using relatively recent data (World Bank's LSMS-ISA for households and satellite data for weather shocks). On the one hand, households seem able to insure against most idiosyncratic and mild adverse weather shocks. On the other hand, vulnerability to stronger weather shocks (especially droughts) remains elevated. In the second chapter, starting from firms' individual data, aggregate trends about industry concentration and other proxies of competition are built. This chapter is part of a larger project conducted at the OECD in the Productivity Innovation and Entrepreneurship Division of the STI Directorate The project innovates on the existing literature in its measurement of concentration, aimed at reflecting markets more accurately. On average, aggregate concentration is found to be increasing. In the third chapter, which only lays out some preliminary steps of a more extensive inquiry, I model the heterogeneous effects of aggregate technological progress on individual economic agents and show how this can affect aggregate inequality and other aggregate indicators studied in the macroeconomics literature, such as the entrepreneurship rate and the overall firm distribution. It should be noted, however, that this note is a simple exposition of a possible modelling device rather than a full explanation of these phenomena.