"Making Sense of Figures": Statistics, Computing and Information Technologies in Agriculture and Biology in Britain, 1920s-1960s

Throughout the twentieth century statistical methods have increasingly become part of experimental research. In particular, statistics has made quantification processes meaningful in the soft sciences, which had traditionally relied on activities such as collecting and describing diversity rather than timing variation. The thesis explores this change in relation to agriculture and biology, focusing on analysis of variance and experimental design, the statistical methods developed by the mathematician and geneticist Ronald Aylmer Fisher during the 1920s. The role that Fisher’s methods acquired as tools of scientific research, side by side with the laboratory equipment and the field practices adopted by research workers, is here investigated bottom-up, beginning with the computing instruments and the information technologies that were the tools of the trade for statisticians. Four case studies show under several perspectives the interaction of statistics, computing and information technologies, giving on the one hand an overview of the main tools – mechanical calculators, statistical tables, punched and index cards, standardised forms, digital computers – adopted in the period, and on the other pointing out how these tools complemented each other and were instrumental for the development and dissemination of analysis of variance and experimental design. The period considered is the half-century from the early 1920s to the late 1960s, the institutions investigated are Rothamsted Experimental Station and the Galton Laboratory, and the statisticians examined are Ronald Fisher and Frank Yates.

Sulla progettazione in zona sismica di strutture dotate di dissipatori fluido-viscosi: proposta di una metodologia

CHAPTER 1:FLUID-VISCOUS DAMPERS In this chapter the fluid-viscous dampers are introduced. The first section is focused on the technical characteristics of these devices, their mechanical behavior and the latest evolution of the technology whose they are equipped. In the second section we report the definitions and the guide lines about the design of these devices included in some international codes. In the third section the results of some experimental tests carried out by some authors on the response of these devices to external forces are discussed. On this purpose we report some technical schedules that are usually enclosed to the devices now available on the international market. In the third section we show also some analytic models proposed by various authors, which are able to describe efficiently the physical behavior of the fluid-viscous dampers. In the last section we propose some cases of application of these devices on existing structures and on new-construction structures. We show also some cases in which these devices have been revealed good for aims that lies outside the reduction of seismic actions on the structures. CHAPTER 2:DESIGN METHODS PROPOSED IN LITERATURE In this chapter the more widespread design methods proposed in literature for structures equipped by fluid-viscous dampers are introduced. In the first part the response of sdf systems in the case of harmonic external force is studied, in the last part the response in the case of random external force is discussed. In the first section the equations of motion in the case of an elastic-linear sdf system equipped with a non-linear fluid-viscous damper undergoing a harmonic force are introduced. This differential problem is analytically quite complex and it’s not possible to be solved in a closed form. Therefore some authors have proposed approximate solution methods. The more widespread methods are based on equivalence principles between a non-linear device and an equivalent linear one. Operating in this way it is possible to define an equivalent damping ratio and the problem becomes linear; the solution of the equivalent problem is well-known. In the following section two techniques of linearization, proposed by some authors in literature, are described: the first technique is based on the equivalence of the energy dissipated by the two devices and the second one is based on the equivalence of power consumption. After that we compare these two techniques by studying the response of a sdf system undergoing a harmonic force. By introducing the equivalent damping ratio we can write the equation of motion of the non-linear differential problem in an implicit form, by dividing, as usual, for the mass of the system. In this way, we get a reduction of the number of variables, by introducing the natural frequency of the system. The equation of motion written in this form has two important properties: the response is linear dependent on the amplitude of the external force and the response is dependent on the ratio of the frequency of the external harmonic force and the natural frequency of the system only, and not on their single values. All these considerations, in the last section, are extended to the case of a random external force. CHAPTER 3: DESIGN METHOD PROPOSED In this chapter the theoretical basis of the design method proposed are introduced. The need to propose a new design method for structures equipped with fluid-viscous dampers arises from the observation that the methods reported in literature are always iterative, because the response affects some parameters included in the equation of motion (such as the equivalent damping ratio). In the first section the dimensionless parameterε is introduced. This parameter has been obtained from the definition of equivalent damping ratio. The implicit form of the equation of motion is written by introducing the parameter ε, instead of the equivalent damping ratio. This new implicit equation of motions has not any terms affected by the response, so that once ε is known the response can be evaluated directly. In the second section it is discussed how the parameter ε affects some characteristics of the response: drift, velocity and base shear. All the results described till this point have been obtained by keeping the non-linearity of the behavior of the dampers. In order to get a linear formulation of the problem, that is possible to solve by using the well-known methods of the dynamics of structures, as we did before for the iterative methods by introducing the equivalent damping ratio, it is shown how the equivalent damping ratio can be evaluated from knowing the value of ε. Operating in this way, once the parameter ε is known, it is quite easy to estimate the equivalent damping ratio and to proceed with a classic linear analysis. In the last section it is shown how the parameter ε could be taken as reference for the evaluation of the convenience of using non-linear dampers instead of linear ones on the basis of the type of external force and the characteristics of the system. CHAPTER 4: MULTI-DEGREE OF FREEDOM SYSTEMS In this chapter the design methods of a elastic-linear mdf system equipped with non-linear fluidviscous dampers are introduced. It has already been shown that, in the sdf systems, the response of the structure can be evaluated through the estimation of the equivalent damping ratio (ξsd) assuming the behavior of the structure elastic-linear. We would to mention that some adjusting coefficients, to be applied to the equivalent damping ratio in order to consider the actual behavior of the structure (that is non-linear), have already been proposed in literature; such coefficients are usually expressed in terms of ductility, but their treatment is over the aims of this thesis and we does not go into further. The method usually proposed in literature is based on energy equivalence: even though this procedure has solid theoretical basis, it must necessary include some iterative process, because the expression of the equivalent damping ratio contains a term of the response. This procedure has been introduced primarily by Ramirez, Constantinou et al. in 2000. This procedure is reported in the first section and it is defined “Iterative Method”. Following the guide lines about sdf systems reported in the previous chapters, it is introduced a procedure for the assessment of the parameter ε in the case of mdf systems. Operating in this way the evaluation of the equivalent damping ratio (ξsd) can be done directly without implementing iterative processes. This procedure is defined “Direct Method” and it is reported in the second section. In the third section the two methods are analyzed by studying 4 cases of two moment-resisting steel frames undergoing real accelerogramms: the response of the system calculated by using the two methods is compared with the numerical response obtained from the software called SAP2000-NL, CSI product. In the last section a procedure to create spectra of the equivalent damping ratio, affected by the parameter ε and the natural period of the system for a fixed value of exponent α, starting from the elasticresponse spectra provided by any international code, is introduced.

The role of collective action in the provision of agri-environmental public goods: theoretical development through case studies in Italy

The thesis aims at analysing the role of collective action as a viable alternative to the traditional forms of intervention in agriculture in order to encourage the provision of agri-environmental public goods. Which are the main benefits of collective action, in terms of effectiveness and efficiency, compared to traditional market or public intervention policies? What are the drivers that encourage farmers to participate into collective action? To what extent it is possible to incorporate collective aspects into policies aimed at providing agri-environmental public goods? With the objective of addressing these research questions, the thesis is articulated in two levels: a theoretical analysis on the role of collective action in the provision of public goods and a specific investigation of two local initiative,s were an approach collective management of agro-environmental resources was successfully implemented. The first case study concerns a project named “Custodians of the Territory”, developed by the local agency in Tuscany “Comunità Montana Media Valle del Serchio”, which settled for an agreement with local farmers for a collective provision of environmental services related to the hydro-geological management of the district. The second case study is related to the territorial agri-environmental agreement experimented in Valdaso (Marche), where local farmers have adopted integrated pest management practices collectively with the aim of reducing the environmental impact of their farming practices. The analysis of these initiatives, carried out through participatory methods (Rapid Rural Appraisal), allowed developing a theoretical discussion on the role of innovative tools (such as co-production and co-management) in the provision of agri-environmental public goods. The case studies also provided some recommendations on the government intervention and policies needed to promote successful collective action for the provision of agri-environmental public goods.

On land management: landowners' attitudes to land and farming in Valdera, Tuscany

This thesis aims at explaining the intersecting dynamics of structural changes in agriculture and urbanisation, which involves changes in urban-rural relationships. The research questions are: how and why do landowners differ in their attitudes to land and farming? what are the main implications on rural landscapes and the policy implications? Relationships between urbanisation and agriculture are firstly analysed through a critical literature review; the analysis focuses on the 'landowner' as the key actor who actively takes decisions on the rural landscape From the empirical study – which is based on a Tuscan area (Valdera), and addressed through qualitative methods – a great diversity of landowners' attitudes to land and farming emerge, thus contributing to the agricultural restructuring, such as: 1) the emphasis on recreational function of the countryside for urban people 2) contracting out of land management, especially when landowners live or/and have 'urban' employment 3) the active role of hobby farmers in land management 4) agricultural operations simplification and lack of investments (especially in case of property rights expropriation). The thesis is framed in three papers, with the same methods and research questions. It seems evident that rural landscapes is subjected to functional changes (e.g. residential) and structural changes (landscape polarisation), which requires the need 1) to consider that rural landscape management is increasingly less connected to agricultural production as economic activity; 2) to give a coherence to the range of policy interventions (physical planning, landscape, sectoral).

Aspetti di sostenibilità in agricoltura a diverse scale spaziali e temporali. Valutazioni ambientali, economiche ed energetiche.

La Tesi analizza le relazioni tra i processi di sviluppo agricolo e l’uso delle risorse naturali, in particolare di quelle energetiche, a livello internazionale (paesi in via di sviluppo e sviluppati), nazionale (Italia), regionale (Emilia Romagna) e aziendale, con lo scopo di valutare l’eco-efficienza dei processi di sviluppo agricolo, la sua evoluzione nel tempo e le principali dinamiche in relazione anche ai problemi di dipendenza dalle risorse fossili, della sicurezza alimentare, della sostituzione tra superfici agricole dedicate all’alimentazione umana ed animale. Per i due casi studio a livello macroeconomico è stata adottata la metodologia denominata “SUMMA” SUstainability Multi-method, multi-scale Assessment (Ulgiati et al., 2006), che integra una serie di categorie d’impatto dell’analisi del ciclo di vita, LCA, valutazioni costi-benefici e la prospettiva di analisi globale della contabilità emergetica. L’analisi su larga scala è stata ulteriormente arricchita da un caso studio sulla scala locale, di una fattoria produttrice di latte e di energia elettrica rinnovabile (fotovoltaico e biogas). Lo studio condotto mediante LCA e valutazione contingente ha valutato gli effetti ambientali, economici e sociali di scenari di riduzione della dipendenza dalle fonti fossili. I casi studio a livello macroeconomico dimostrano che, nonostante le politiche di supporto all’aumento di efficienza e a forme di produzione “verdi”, l’agricoltura a livello globale continua ad evolvere con un aumento della sua dipendenza dalle fonti energetiche fossili. I primi effetti delle politiche agricole comunitarie verso una maggiore sostenibilità sembrano tuttavia intravedersi per i Paesi Europei. Nel complesso la energy footprint si mantiene alta poiché la meccanizzazione continua dei processi agricoli deve necessariamente attingere da fonti energetiche sostitutive al lavoro umano. Le terre agricole diminuiscono nei paesi europei analizzati e in Italia aumentando i rischi d’insicurezza alimentare giacché la popolazione nazionale sta invece aumentando.

An Innovation System Perspective on Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability and Water Management in India

Government policies play a critical role in influencing market conditions, institutions and overall agricultural productivity. The thesis therefore looks into the history of agriculture development in India. Taking a political economy perspective, the historical account looks at significant institutional and technological innovations carried out in pre- independent and post independent India. It further focuses on the Green Revolution in Asia, as forty years after; the agricultural community still faces the task of addressing recurrent issue of food security amidst emerging challenges, such as climate change. It examines the Green Revolution that took place in India during the late 1960s and 70s in a historical perspective, identifying two factors of institutional change and political leadership. Climate change in agriculture development has become a major concern to farmers, researchers and policy makers alike. However, there is little knowledge on the farmers’ perception to climate change and to the extent they coincide with actual climatic data. Using a qualitative approach,it looks into the perceptions of the farmers in four villages in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. While exploring the adaptation strategies, the chapter looks into the dynamics of who can afford a particular technology and who cannot and what leads to a particular adaptation decision thus determining the adaptive capacity in water management. The final section looks into the devolution of authority for natural resource management to local user groups through the Water Users’ Associations as an important approach to overcome the long-standing challenges of centralized state bureaucracies in India. It addresses the knowledge gap of why some local user groups are able to overcome governance challenges such as elite capture, while others-that work under the design principles developed by Elinor Ostrom. It draws conclusions on how local leadership, can be promoted to facilitate participatory irrigation management.

Technology Development and Consumer Acceptance of Innovation in Fruit Production

Precision Agriculture (PA) and the more specific branch of Precision Horticulture are two very promising sectors. They focus on the use of technologies in agriculture to optimize the use of inputs, so to reach a better efficiency, and minimize waste of resources. This important objective motivated many researchers and companies to search new technology solutions. Sometimes the effort proved to be a good seed, but sometimes an unfeasible idea. So that PA, from its birth more or less 25 years ago, is still a “new” management, interesting for the future, but an actual low adoption rate is still reported by experts and researchers. This work aims to give a contribution in finding the causes of this low adoption rate and proposing a methodological solution to this problem. The first step was to examine prior research about Precision Agriculture adoption, by ex ante and ex post approach. It was supposed as important to find connections between these two phases of a purchase experience. In fact, the ex ante studies dealt with potential consumer’s perceptions before a usage experience occurred, therefore before purchasing a technology, while the ex post studies described the drivers which made a farmer become an end-user of PA technology. Then, an example of consumer research is presented. This was an ex ante research focused on pre-prototype technology for fruit production. This kind of research could give precious information about consumer acceptance before reaching an advanced development phase of the technology, and so to have the possibility to change something with the least financial impact. The final step was to develop the pre-prototype technology that was the subject of the consumer acceptance research and test its technical characteristics.

Risk analysis of tractor rollover in the normal operation in field

Tractor rollover represent a primary cause of death or serious injury in agriculture and despite the mandatory Roll-Over Protective Structures (ROPS), that reduced the number of injuries, tractor accidents are still of great concern. Because of their versatility and wide use many studies on safety are concerned with the stability of tractors, but they often prefer controlled tests or laboratory tests. The evaluation of tractors working in field, instead, is a very complex issue because the rollover could be influenced by the interaction among operator, tractor and environment. Recent studies are oriented towards the evaluation of the actual working conditions developing prototypes for driver assistance and data acquisition. Currently these devices are produced and sold by manufacturers. A warning device was assessed in this study with the aim to evaluate its performance and to collect data on different variables influencing the dynamics of tractors in field by monitoring continuously the working conditions of tractors operating at the experimental farm of the Bologna University. The device consists of accelerometers, gyroscope, GSM/GPRS, GPS for geo-referencing and a transceiver for the automatic recognition of tractor-connected equipment. A microprocessor processes data and provides information, through a dedicated algorithm requiring data on the geometry of the tested tractor, on the level of risk for the operator in terms of probable loss of stability and suggests corrective measures to reduce the potential instability of the tractor.

Rural governance and livelihoods systems diversification in the Western Balkans: comparative case studies of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia

Agriculture is still important for socio-economic development in rural areas of Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia (BMS). However, for sustainable rural development rural economies should be diversified so attention should be paid also to off-farm and non-farm income-generating activities. Agricultural and rural development (ARD) processes and farm activity diversification initiatives should be well governed. The ultimate objective of this work is to explore linkages between ARD governance and rural livelihoods diversification in BMS. The thesis is based on an extended secondary data analysis and surveys. Questionnaires for ARD governance and coordination were sent via email to public, civil society and international organizations. Concerning rural livelihood diversification, the field questionnaire surveys were carried out in three rural regions of BMS. Results show that local rural livelihoods are increasingly diversified but a significant share of households are still engaged in agriculture. Diversification strategies have a chance to succeed taking into consideration the three rural regions’ assets. However, rural households have to tackle many problems for developing new income-generating activities such as the lack of financial resources. Weak business skills are also a limiting factor. Fully exploiting rural economy diversification potential in BMS requires many interventions including improving rural governance, enhancing service delivery in rural areas, upgrading rural people’s human capital, strengthening rural social capital and improving physical capital, access of the rural population to finance as well as creating a favourable and enabling legal and legislative environment fostering diversification. Governance and coordination of ARD policy design, implementation and evaluation is still challenging in the three Balkan countries and this has repercussions also on the pace of rural livelihoods diversification. Therefore, there is a strong and urgent need for mobilization of all rural stakeholders and actors through appropriate governance arrangements in order to foster rural livelihoods diversification and quality of life improvement.