4 resultados para Modified Delphi method

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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The primary goal of volcanological studies is to reconstruct the eruptive history of active volcanoes, by correlating and dating volcanic deposits, in order to depict a future scenario and determine the volcanic hazard of an area. However, alternative methods are necessary where the lack of outcrops, the deposit variability and discontinuity make the correlation difficult, and suitable materials for an accurate dating lack. In this thesis, paleomagnetism (a branch of Geophysics studying the remanent magnetization preserved in rocks) is used as a correlating and dating tool. The correlation is based on the assumption that coeval rocks record similar paleomagnetic directions; the dating relies upon the comparison between paleomagnetic directions recorded by rocks with the expected values from references Paleo-Secular Variation curves (PSV, the variation of the geomagnetic field along time). I first used paleomagnetism to refine the knowledge of the pre – 50 ka geologic history of the Pantelleria island (Strait of Sicily, Italy), by correlating five ignimbrites and two breccias deposits emplaced during that period. Since the use of the paleomagnetic dating is limited by the availability of PSV curves for the studied area, I firstly recovered both paleomagnetic directions and intensities (using a modified Thellier method) from radiocarbon dated lava flows in São Miguel (Azores Islands, Portugal), reconstructing the first PSV reference curve for the Atlantic Ocean for the last 3 ka. Afterwards, I applied paleomagnetism to unravel the chronology and characteristics of Holocene volcanic activity at Faial (Azores) where geochronological age constraints lack. I correlated scoria cones and lava flows yielded by the same eruption on the Capelo Peninsula and dated eruptive events (by comparing paleomagnetic directions with PSV from France and United Kingdom), finding that the volcanics exposed at the Capelo Peninsula are younger than previously believed, and entirely comprised in the last 4 ka.

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The country-of-origin is the “nationality” of a food when it goes through customs in a foreign country, and is a “brand” when the food is for sale in a foreign market. My research on country-of-origin labeling (COOL) started from a case study on the extra virgin olive oil exported from Italy to China; the result shows that asymmetric and imperfect origin information may lead to market inefficiency, even market failure in emerging countries. Then, I used the Delphi method to conduct qualitative and systematic research on COOL; the panel of experts in food labeling and food policy was composed of 19 members in 13 countries; the most important consensus is that multiple countries of origin marking can provide accurate information about the origin of a food produced by two or more countries, avoiding misinformation for consumers. Moreover, I enhanced the research on COOL by analyzing the rules of origin and drafting a guideline for the standardization of origin marking. Finally, from the perspective of information economics I estimated the potential effect of the multiple countries of origin labeling on the business models of international trade, and analyzed the regulatory options for mandatory or voluntary COOL of main ingredients. This research provides valuable insights for the formulation of COOL policy.

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I studied the effects exerted by the modifications on structures and biological activities of the compounds so obtained. I prepared peptide analogues containing unusual amino acids such as halogenated, alkylated (S)- or (R)-tryptophans, useful for the synthesis of mimetics of the endogenous opioid peptide endomorphin-1, or 2-oxo-1,3-oxazolidine-4-carboxylic acids, utilized as pseudo-prolines having a clear all-trans configuration of the preceding peptide bond. The latter gave access to a series of constrained peptidomimetics with potential interest in medicinal chemistry and in the field of the foldamers. In particular, I have dedicated much efforts to the preparation of cyclopentapeptides containing D-configured, alfa-, or beta-aminoacids, and also of cyclotetrapeptides including the retro-inverso modification. The conformational analyses confirmed that these cyclic compounds can be utilized as rigid scaffolds mimicking gamma- or beta-turns, allowing to generate new molecular and 3D diversity. Much work has been dedicated to the structural analysis in solution and in the receptor-bound state, fundamental for giving a rationale to the experimentally determined bioactivity, as well as for predicting the activity of virtual compounds (in silico pre-screen). The conformational analyses in solution has been done mostly by NMR (2D gCosy, Roesy, VT, molecular dynamics, etc.). A special section is dedicated to the prediction of plausible poses of the ligands when bound to the receptors by Molecular Docking. This computational method proved to be a powerful tool for the investigation of ligand-receptor interactions, and for the design of selective agonists and antagonists. Another practical use of cyclic peptidomimetics was the synthesis and biological evaluation of cyclic analogues of endomorphin-1 lacking in a protonable amino group. The studies revealed that a inverse type II beta-turn on D-Trp-Phe constituted the bioactive conformation.

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In the field of educational and psychological measurement, the shift from paper-based to computerized tests has become a prominent trend in recent years. Computerized tests allow for more complex and personalized test administration procedures, like Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). CAT, following the Item Response Theory (IRT) models, dynamically generates tests based on test-taker responses, driven by complex statistical algorithms. Even if CAT structures are complex, they are flexible and convenient, but concerns about test security should be addressed. Frequent item administration can lead to item exposure and cheating, necessitating preventive and diagnostic measures. In this thesis a method called "CHeater identification using Interim Person fit Statistic" (CHIPS) is developed, designed to identify and limit cheaters in real-time during test administration. CHIPS utilizes response times (RTs) to calculate an Interim Person fit Statistic (IPS), allowing for on-the-fly intervention using a more secret item bank. Also, a slight modification is proposed to overcome situations with constant speed, called Modified-CHIPS (M-CHIPS). A simulation study assesses CHIPS, highlighting its effectiveness in identifying and controlling cheaters. However, it reveals limitations when cheaters possess all correct answers. The M-CHIPS overcame this limitation. Furthermore, the method has shown not to be influenced by the cheaters’ ability distribution or the level of correlation between ability and speed of test-takers. Finally, the method has demonstrated flexibility for the choice of significance level and the transition from fixed-length tests to variable-length ones. The thesis discusses potential applications, including the suitability of the method for multiple-choice tests, assumptions about RT distribution and level of item pre-knowledge. Also limitations are discussed to explore future developments such as different RT distributions, unusual honest respondent behaviors, and field testing in real-world scenarios. In summary, CHIPS and M-CHIPS offer real-time cheating detection in CAT, enhancing test security and ability estimation while not penalizing test respondents.