Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Bistable elliptic equations with fractional diffusion

This work concerns the study of bounded solutions to elliptic nonlinear equations with fractional diffusion. More precisely, the aim of this thesis is to investigate some open questions related to a conjecture of De Giorgi about the one-dimensional symmetry of bounded monotone solutions in all space, at least up to dimension 8. This property on 1-D symmetry of monotone solutions for fractional equations was known in dimension n=2. The question remained open for n>2. In this work we establish new sharp energy estimates and one-dimensional symmetry property in dimension 3 for certain solutions of fractional equations. Moreover we study a particular type of solutions, called saddle-shaped solutions, which are the candidates to be global minimizers not one-dimensional in dimensions bigger or equal than 8. This is an open problem and it is expected to be true from the classical theory of minimal surfaces.

Multilevel Domain Decomposition Algorithms for Monolithic Fluid-Structure Interaction Problems with Application to Haemodynamics

Finite element techniques for solving the problem of fluid-structure interaction of an elastic solid material in a laminar incompressible viscous flow are described. The mathematical problem consists of the Navier-Stokes equations in the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian formulation coupled with a non-linear structure model, considering the problem as one continuum. The coupling between the structure and the fluid is enforced inside a monolithic framework which computes simultaneously for the fluid and the structure unknowns within a unique solver. We used the well-known Crouzeix-Raviart finite element pair for discretization in space and the method of lines for discretization in time. A stability result using the Backward-Euler time-stepping scheme for both fluid and solid part and the finite element method for the space discretization has been proved. The resulting linear system has been solved by multilevel domain decomposition techniques. Our strategy is to solve several local subproblems over subdomain patches using the Schur-complement or GMRES smoother within a multigrid iterative solver. For validation and evaluation of the accuracy of the proposed methodology, we present corresponding results for a set of two FSI benchmark configurations which describe the self-induced elastic deformation of a beam attached to a cylinder in a laminar channel flow, allowing stationary as well as periodically oscillating deformations, and for a benchmark proposed by COMSOL multiphysics where a narrow vertical structure attached to the bottom wall of a channel bends under the force due to both viscous drag and pressure. Then, as an example of fluid-structure interaction in biomedical problems, we considered the academic numerical test which consists in simulating the pressure wave propagation through a straight compliant vessel. All the tests show the applicability and the numerical efficiency of our approach to both two-dimensional and three-dimensional problems.

Application-oriented Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming

In the most recent years there is a renovate interest for Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) problems. This can be explained for different reasons: (i) the performance of solvers handling non-linear constraints was largely improved; (ii) the awareness that most of the applications from the real-world can be modeled as an MINLP problem; (iii) the challenging nature of this very general class of problems. It is well-known that MINLP problems are NP-hard because they are the generalization of MILP problems, which are NP-hard themselves. However, MINLPs are, in general, also hard to solve in practice. We address to non-convex MINLPs, i.e. having non-convex continuous relaxations: the presence of non-convexities in the model makes these problems usually even harder to solve. The aim of this Ph.D. thesis is to give a flavor of different possible approaches that one can study to attack MINLP problems with non-convexities, with a special attention to real-world problems. In Part 1 of the thesis we introduce the problem and present three special cases of general MINLPs and the most common methods used to solve them. These techniques play a fundamental role in the resolution of general MINLP problems. Then we describe algorithms addressing general MINLPs. Parts 2 and 3 contain the main contributions of the Ph.D. thesis. In particular, in Part 2 four different methods aimed at solving different classes of MINLP problems are presented. Part 3 of the thesis is devoted to real-world applications: two different problems and approaches to MINLPs are presented, namely Scheduling and Unit Commitment for Hydro-Plants and Water Network Design problems. The results show that each of these different methods has advantages and disadvantages. Thus, typically the method to be adopted to solve a real-world problem should be tailored on the characteristics, structure and size of the problem. Part 4 of the thesis consists of a brief review on tools commonly used for general MINLP problems, constituted an integral part of the development of this Ph.D. thesis (especially the use and development of open-source software). We present the main characteristics of solvers for each special case of MINLP.

Magnetohydrodynamic Effects On Mixed Convection Flows In Channels And Ducts

This work focuses on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mixed convection flow of electrically conducting fluids enclosed in simple 1D and 2D geometries in steady periodic regime. In particular, in Chapter one a short overview is given about the history of MHD, with reference to papers available in literature, and a listing of some of its most common technological applications, whereas Chapter two deals with the analytical formulation of the MHD problem, starting from the fluid dynamic and energy equations and adding the effects of an external imposed magnetic field using the Ohm's law and the definition of the Lorentz force. Moreover a description of the various kinds of boundary conditions is given, with particular emphasis given to their practical realization. Chapter three, four and five describe the solution procedure of mixed convective flows with MHD effects. In all cases a uniform parallel magnetic field is supposed to be present in the whole fluid domain transverse with respect to the velocity field. The steady-periodic regime will be analyzed, where the periodicity is induced by wall temperature boundary conditions, which vary in time with a sinusoidal law. Local balance equations of momentum, energy and charge will be solved analytically and numerically using as parameters either geometrical ratios or material properties. In particular, in Chapter three the solution method for the mixed convective flow in a 1D vertical parallel channel with MHD effects is illustrated. The influence of a transverse magnetic field will be studied in the steady periodic regime induced by an oscillating wall temperature. Analytical and numerical solutions will be provided in terms of velocity and temperature profiles, wall friction factors and average heat fluxes for several values of the governing parameters. In Chapter four the 2D problem of the mixed convective flow in a vertical round pipe with MHD effects is analyzed. Again, a transverse magnetic field influences the steady periodic regime induced by the oscillating wall temperature of the wall. A numerical solution is presented, obtained using a finite element approach, and as a result velocity and temperature profiles, wall friction factors and average heat fluxes are derived for several values of the Hartmann and Prandtl numbers. In Chapter five the 2D problem of the mixed convective flow in a vertical rectangular duct with MHD effects is discussed. As seen in the previous chapters, a transverse magnetic field influences the steady periodic regime induced by the oscillating wall temperature of the four walls. The numerical solution obtained using a finite element approach is presented, and a collection of results, including velocity and temperature profiles, wall friction factors and average heat fluxes, is provided for several values of, among other parameters, the duct aspect ratio. A comparison with analytical solutions is also provided, as a proof of the validity of the numerical method. Chapter six is the concluding chapter, where some reflections on the MHD effects on mixed convection flow will be made, in agreement with the experience and the results gathered in the analyses presented in the previous chapters. In the appendices special auxiliary functions and FORTRAN program listings are reported, to support the formulations used in the solution chapters.

Reasoning with incomplete and imprecise preferences

Preferences are present in many real life situations but it is often difficult to quantify them giving a precise value. Sometimes preference values may be missing because of privacy reasons or because they are expensive to obtain or to produce. In some other situations the user of an automated system may have a vague idea of whats he wants. In this thesis we considered the general formalism of soft constraints, where preferences play a crucial role and we extended such a framework to handle both incomplete and imprecise preferences. In particular we provided new theoretical frameworks to handle such kinds of preferences. By admitting missing or imprecise preferences, solving a soft constraint problem becomes a different task. In fact, the new goal is to find solutions which are the best ones independently of the precise value the each preference may have. With this in mind we defined two notions of optimality: the possibly optimal solutions and the necessary optimal solutions, which are optimal no matter we assign a precise value to a missing or imprecise preference. We provided several algorithms, bases on both systematic and local search approaches, to find such kind of solutions. Moreover, we also studied the impact of our techniques also in a specific class of problems (the stable marriage problems) where imprecision and incompleteness have a specific meaning and up to now have been tackled with different techniques. In the context of the classical stable marriage problem we developed a fair method to randomly generate stable marriages of a given problem instance. Furthermore, we adapted our techniques to solve stable marriage problems with ties and incomplete lists, which are known to be NP-hard, obtaining good results both in terms of size of the returned marriage and in terms of steps need to find a solution.

Locating the source of volcanic tremor at stromboli volcano, italy

We have developed a method for locating sources of volcanic tremor and applied it to a dataset recorded on Stromboli volcano before and after the onset of the February 27th 2007 effusive eruption. Volcanic tremor has attracted considerable attention by seismologists because of its potential value as a tool for forecasting eruptions and for better understanding the physical processes that occur inside active volcanoes. Commonly used methods to locate volcanic tremor sources are: 1) array techniques, 2) semblance based methods, 3) calculation of wave field amplitude. We have choosen the third approach, using a quantitative modeling of the seismic wavefield. For this purpose, we have calculated the Green Functions (GF) in the frequency domain with the Finite Element Method (FEM). We have used this method because it is well suited to solve elliptic problems, as the elastodynamics in the Fourier domain. The volcanic tremor source is located by determining the source function over a regular grid of points. The best fit point is choosen as the tremor source location. The source inversion is performed in the frequency domain, using only the wavefield amplitudes. We illustrate the method and its validation over a synthetic dataset. We show some preliminary results on the Stromboli dataset, evidencing temporal variations of the volcanic tremor sources.

Catalysts and processes for next-generation H2 production

The present study is focused on the development of new VIII group metal on CeO2 – ZrO2 (CZO) catalyst to be used in reforming reaction for syngas production. The catalyst are tested in the oxyreforming process, extensively studied by Barbera [44] in a new multistep process configuration, with intermediate H2 membrane separation, that can be carried out at lower temperature (750°C) with respect the reforming processes (900 – 1000°C). In spite of the milder temperatures, the oxy-reforming conditions (S/C = 0.7; O2/C = 0.21) remain critical regarding the deactivation problems mainly deriving from thermal sintering and carbon formation phenomena. The combination of the high thermal stability characterizing the ZrO2, with the CeO2 redox properties, allows the formation of stable mixed oxide system with high oxygen mobility. This feature can be exploited in order to contrast the carbon deposition on the active metal surface through the oxidation of the carbon by means of the mobile oxygen atoms available at the surface of the CZO support. Ce0.5Zr0.5O2 is the phase claimed to have the highest oxygen mobility but its formation is difficult through classical synthesis (co-precipitation), hence a water-in-oil microemulsion method is, widely studied and characterized. Two methods (IWI and bulk) for the insertion of the active metal (Rh, Ru, Ni) are followed and their effects, mainly related to the metal stability and dispersion on the support, are discussed, correlating the characterization with the catalytic activity. Different parameters (calcination and reduction temperatures) are tuned to obtain the best catalytic system both in terms of activity and stability. Interesting results are obtained with impregnated and bulk catalysts, the latter representing a new class of catalysts. The best catalysts are also tested in a low temperature (350 – 500°C) steam reforming process and preliminary tests with H2 membrane separation have been also carried out.