Analisi critica di modelli previsionali per le frane in Emilia Romagna

Questa tesi di dottorato è inserita nell’ambito della convenzione tra ARPA_SIMC (che è l’Ente finanziatore), l’Agenzia Regionale di Protezione Civile ed il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geologico - Ambientali dell’Ateneo di Bologna. L’obiettivo principale è la determinazione di possibili soglie pluviometriche di innesco per i fenomeni franosi in Emilia Romagna che possano essere utilizzate come strumento di supporto previsionale in sala operativa di Protezione Civile. In un contesto geologico così complesso, un approccio empirico tradizionale non è sufficiente per discriminare in modo univoco tra eventi meteo innescanti e non, ed in generale la distribuzione dei dati appare troppo dispersa per poter tracciare una soglia statisticamente significativa. È stato quindi deciso di applicare il rigoroso approccio statistico Bayesiano, innovativo poiché calcola la probabilità di frana dato un certo evento di pioggia (P(A|B)) , considerando non solo le precipitazioni innescanti frane (quindi la probabilità condizionata di avere un certo evento di precipitazione data l’occorrenza di frana, P(B|A)), ma anche le precipitazioni non innescanti (quindi la probabilità a priori di un evento di pioggia, P(A)). L’approccio Bayesiano è stato applicato all’intervallo temporale compreso tra il 1939 ed il 2009. Le isolinee di probabilità ottenute minimizzano i falsi allarmi e sono facilmente implementabili in un sistema di allertamento regionale, ma possono presentare limiti previsionali per fenomeni non rappresentati nel dataset storico o che avvengono in condizioni anomale. Ne sono esempio le frane superficiali con evoluzione in debris flows, estremamente rare negli ultimi 70 anni, ma con frequenza recentemente in aumento. Si è cercato di affrontare questo problema testando la variabilità previsionale di alcuni modelli fisicamente basati appositamente sviluppati a questo scopo, tra cui X – SLIP (Montrasio et al., 1998), SHALSTAB (SHALlow STABility model, Montgomery & Dietrich, 1994), Iverson (2000), TRIGRS 1.0 (Baum et al., 2002), TRIGRS 2.0 (Baum et al., 2008).

A New Prediction Model for Slope Stability Analysis

The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.

Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

Model and control of tendon actuated robots

The use of tendons for the transmission of the forces and the movements in robotic devices has been investigated from several researchers all over the world. The interest in this kind of actuation modality is based on the possibility of optimizing the position of the actuators with respect to the moving part of the robot, in the reduced weight, high reliability, simplicity in the mechanic design and, finally, in the reduced cost of the resulting kinematic chain. After a brief discussion about the benefits that the use of tendons can introduce in the motion control of a robotic device, the design and control aspects of the UB Hand 3 anthropomorphic robotic hand are presented. In particular, the tendon-sheaths transmission system adopted in the UB Hand 3 is analyzed and the problem of force control and friction compensation is taken into account. The implementation of a tendon based antagonistic actuated robotic arm is then investigated. With this kind of actuation modality, and by using transmission elements with nonlinear force/compression characteristic, it is possible to achieve simultaneous stiffness and position control, improving in this way the safety of the device during the operation in unknown environments and in the case of interaction with other robots or with humans. The problem of modeling and control of this type of robotic devices is then considered and the stability analysis of proposed controller is reported. At the end, some tools for the realtime simulation of dynamic systems are presented. This realtime simulation environment has been developed with the aim of improving the reliability of the realtime control applications both for rapid prototyping of controllers and as teaching tools for the automatic control courses.

Two fluid numerical model for coastal applications

Wave breaking is an important coastal process, influencing hydro-morphodynamic processes such as turbulence generation and wave energy dissipation, run-up on the beach and overtopping of coastal defence structures. During breaking, waves are complex mixtures of air and water (“white water”) whose properties affect velocity and pressure fields in the vicinity of the free surface and, depending on the breaker characteristics, different mechanisms for air entrainment are usually observed. Several laboratory experiments have been performed to investigate the role of air bubbles in the wave breaking process (Chanson & Cummings, 1994, among others) and in wave loading on vertical wall (Oumeraci et al., 2001; Peregrine et al., 2006, among others), showing that the air phase is not negligible since the turbulent energy dissipation involves air-water mixture. The recent advancement of numerical models has given valuable insights in the knowledge of wave transformation and interaction with coastal structures. Among these models, some solve the RANS equations coupled with a free-surface tracking algorithm and describe velocity, pressure, turbulence and vorticity fields (Lara et al. 2006 a-b, Clementi et al., 2007). The single-phase numerical model, in which the constitutive equations are solved only for the liquid phase, neglects effects induced by air movement and trapped air bubbles in water. Numerical approximations at the free surface may induce errors in predicting breaking point and wave height and moreover, entrapped air bubbles and water splash in air are not properly represented. The aim of the present thesis is to develop a new two-phase model called COBRAS2 (stands for Cornell Breaking waves And Structures 2 phases), that is the enhancement of the single-phase code COBRAS0, originally developed at Cornell University (Lin & Liu, 1998). In the first part of the work, both fluids are considered as incompressible, while the second part will treat air compressibility modelling. The mathematical formulation and the numerical resolution of the governing equations of COBRAS2 are derived and some model-experiment comparisons are shown. In particular, validation tests are performed in order to prove model stability and accuracy. The simulation of the rising of a large air bubble in an otherwise quiescent water pool reveals the model capability to reproduce the process physics in a realistic way. Analytical solutions for stationary and internal waves are compared with corresponding numerical results, in order to test processes involving wide range of density difference. Waves induced by dam-break in different scenarios (on dry and wet beds, as well as on a ramp) are studied, focusing on the role of air as the medium in which the water wave propagates and on the numerical representation of bubble dynamics. Simulations of solitary and regular waves, characterized by both spilling and plunging breakers, are analyzed with comparisons with experimental data and other numerical model in order to investigate air influence on wave breaking mechanisms and underline model capability and accuracy. Finally, modelling of air compressibility is included in the new developed model and is validated, revealing an accurate reproduction of processes. Some preliminary tests on wave impact on vertical walls are performed: since air flow modelling allows to have a more realistic reproduction of breaking wave propagation, the dependence of wave breaker shapes and aeration characteristics on impact pressure values is studied and, on the basis of a qualitative comparison with experimental observations, the numerical simulations achieve good results.

Burnout and work engagement among teachers: an application of the job demands-resources model

The present dissertation focuses on burnout and work engagement among teachers, with especial focus on the Job-Demands Resources Model: Chapter 1 focuses on teacher burnout. It aims to investigate the role of efficacy beliefs using negatively worded inefficacy items instead of positive ones and to establish whether depersonalization and cynism can be considered two different dimensions of the teacher burnout syndrome. Chapter 2 investigates the factorial validity of the instruments used to measure work engagement (i.e. Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, UWES-17 and UWES-9). Moreover, because the current study is partly longitudinal in nature, also the stability across time of engagement can be investigated. Finally, based on cluster-analyses, two groups that differ in levels of engagement are compared as far as their job- and personal resources (i.e. possibilities for personal development, work-life balance, and self-efficacy), positive organizational attitudes and behaviours (i.e., job satisfaction and organizational citizenship behaviour) and perceived health are concerned. Chapter 3 tests the JD-R model in a longitudinal way, by integrating also the role of personal resources (i.e. self-efficacy). This chapter seeks answers to questions on what are the most important job demands, job and personal resources contributing to discriminate burned-out teachers from non-burned-out teachers, as well as engaged teachers from non-engaged teachers. Chapter 4 uses a diary study to extend knowledge about the dynamic nature of the JD-R model by considering between- and within-person variations with regard to both motivational and health impairment processes.

Stability, viscous dissipation and local thermal non-equilibrium in fluid saturated porous media

In this thesis, the field of study related to the stability analysis of fluid saturated porous media is investigated. In particular the contribution of the viscous heating to the onset of convective instability in the flow through ducts is analysed. In order to evaluate the contribution of the viscous dissipation, different geometries, different models describing the balance equations and different boundary conditions are used. Moreover, the local thermal non-equilibrium model is used to study the evolution of the temperature differences between the fluid and the solid matrix in a thermal boundary layer problem. On studying the onset of instability, different techniques for eigenvalue problems has been used. Analytical solutions, asymptotic analyses and numerical solutions by means of original and commercial codes are carried out.

Model predictive flight control systems for rotorcraft UAS

Constraints are widely present in the flight control problems: actuators saturations or flight envelope limitations are only some examples of that. The ability of Model Predictive Control (MPC) of dealing with the constraints joined with the increased computational power of modern calculators makes this approach attractive also for fast dynamics systems such as agile air vehicles. This PhD thesis presents the results, achieved at the Aerospace Engineering Department of the University of Bologna in collaboration with the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratories (NLR), concerning the development of a model predictive control system for small scale rotorcraft UAS. Several different predictive architectures have been evaluated and tested by means of simulation, as a result of this analysis the most promising one has been used to implement three different control systems: a Stability and Control Augmentation System, a trajectory tracking and a path following system. The systems have been compared with a corresponding baseline controller and showed several advantages in terms of performance, stability and robustness.

Effects of Resources Exploitation on Water Quality: case studies in Salt Water Intrusion and Acid Mine Drainage

Throughout the world, pressures on water resources are increasing, mainly as a result of human activity. Because of their accessibility, groundwater and surface water are the most used reservoirs. The evaluation of the water quality requires the identification of the interconnections among the water reservoirs, natural landscape features, human activities and aquatic health. This study focuses on the estimation of the water pollution linked to two different environmental issues: salt water intrusion and acid mine drainage related to the exploitation of natural resources. Effects of salt water intrusion occurring in the shallow aquifer north of Ravenna (Italy) was analysed through the study of ion- exchange occurring in the area and its variance throughout the year, applying a depth-specific sampling method. In the study area were identified ion exchange, calcite and dolomite precipitation, and gypsum dissolution and sulphate reduction as the main processes controlling the groundwater composition. High concentrations of arsenic detected only at specific depth indicate its connexion with the organic matter. Acid mine drainage effects related to the tin extraction in the Bolivian Altiplano was studied, on water and sediment matrix. Water contamination results strictly dependent on the seasonal variation, on pH and redox conditions. During the dry season the strong evaporation and scarce water flow lead to low pH values, high concentrations of heavy metals in surface waters and precipitation of secondary minerals along the river, which could be released in oxidizing conditions as demonstrated through the sequential extraction analysis. The increase of the water flow during the wet season lead to an increase of pH values and a decrease in heavy metal concentrations, due to dilution effect and, as e.g. for the iron, to precipitation.

The effect of osmolytes on protein fold stability at the single-molecule level

By pulling and releasing the tension on protein homomers with the Atomic Force Miscroscope (AFM) at different pulling speeds, dwell times and dwell distances, the observed force-response of the protein can be fitted with suitable theoretical models. In this respect we developed mathematical procedures and open-source computer codes for driving such experiments and fitting Bell’s model to experimental protein unfolding forces and protein folding frequencies. We applied the above techniques to the study of proteins GB1 (the B1 IgG-binding domain of protein G from Streptococcus) and I27 (a module of human cardiac titin) in aqueous solutions of protecting osmolytes such as dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), glycerol and trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO). In order to get a molecular understanding of the experimental results we developed an Ising-like model for proteins that incorporates the osmophobic nature of their backbone. The model benefits from analytical thermodynamics and kinetics amenable to Monte-Carlo simulation. The prevailing view used to be that small protecting osmolytes bridge the separating beta-strands of proteins with mechanical resistance, presumably shifting the transition state to significantly higher distances that correlate with the molecular size of the osmolyte molecules. Our experiments showed instead that protecting osmolytes slow down protein unfolding and speed-up protein folding at physiological pH without shifting the protein transition state on the mechanical reaction coordinate. Together with the theoretical results of the Ising-model, our results lend support to the osmophobic theory according to which osmolyte stabilisation is a result of the preferential exclusion of the osmolyte molecules from the protein backbone. The results obtained during this thesis work have markedly improved our understanding of the strategy selected by Nature to strengthen protein stability in hostile environments, shifting the focus from hypothetical protein-osmolyte interactions to the more general mechanism based on the osmophobicity of the protein backbone.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Study of the effect of minor compounds on the oxidative stability and physical properties of bulk oil, oil-in-water emulsion, and food emulsions

Minor components are of particular interest due to their antioxidant and biological properties. Various classes of lipophilic minor components (plant sterols (PS) and α-tocopherol) were selected as they are widely used in the food industry. A Fast GC-MS method for PS analysis in functional dairy products was set up. The analytical performance and significant reduction of the analysis time and consumables, demonstrated that Fast GC-MS could be suitable for the PS analysis in functional dairy products. Due to their chemical structure, PS can undergo oxidation, which could be greatly impacted by matrix nature/composition and thermal treatments. The oxidative stability of PS during microwave heating was evaluated. Two different model systems (PS alone and in combination) were heated up to 30 min at 1000 W. PS degraded faster when they were alone than in presence of TAG. The extent of PS degradation depends on both heating time and the surrounding medium, which can impact the quality and safety of the food product destined to microwave heating/cooking. Many minor lipid components are included in emulsion systems and can affect the rate of lipid oxidation. The oxidative stability of oil-in-water (O/W) emulsions containing PS esters, ω-3 FA and phenolic compounds, were evaluated after a 14-day storage at room temperature. Due to their surface active character, PS could be particularly prone to oxidation when they are incorporated in emulsions, as they are more exposed to water-soluble prooxidants. Finally, some minor lipophilic components may increase oxidative stability of food systems due to their antioxidant activity. á-tocopherol partitioning and antioxidant activity was determined in the presence of excess SDS in stripped soybean O/W emulsions. Results showed that surfactant micelles could play a key role as an antioxidant carrier, by potentially increasing the accessibility of hydrophobic antioxidant to the interface.