Customer Evolution in Sales Channel Migration

This research has been triggered by an emergent trend in customer behavior: customers have rapidly expanded their channel experiences and preferences beyond traditional channels (such as stores) and they expect the company with which they do business to have a presence on all these channels. This evidence has produced an increasing interest in multichannel customer behavior and it has motivated several researchers to study the customers’ channel choices dynamics in multichannel environment. We study how the consumer decision process for channel choice and response to marketing communications evolves for a cohort of new customers. We assume a newly acquired customer’s decisions are described by a “trial” model, but the customer’s choice process evolves to a “post-trial” model as the customer learns his or her preferences and becomes familiar with the firm’s marketing efforts. The trial and post-trial decision processes are each described by different multinomial logit choice models, and the evolution from the trial to post-trial model is determined by a customer-level geometric distribution that captures the time it takes for the customer to make the transition. We utilize data for a major retailer who sells in three channels – retail store, the Internet, and via catalog. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods that allow for cross-customer heterogeneity. This allows us to have distinct parameters estimates for a trial and an after trial stages and to estimate the quickness of this transit at the individual level. The results show for example that the customer decision process indeed does evolve over time. Customers differ in the duration of the trial period and marketing has a different impact on channel choice in the trial and post-trial stages. Furthermore, we show that some people switch channel decision processes while others don’t and we found that several factors have an impact on the probability to switch decision process. Insights from this study can help managers tailor their marketing communication strategy as customers gain channel choice experience. Managers may also have insights on the timing of the direct marketing communications. They can predict the duration of the trial phase at individual level detecting the customers with a quick, long or even absent trial phase. They can even predict if the customer will change or not his decision process over time, and they can influence the switching process using specific marketing tools

Cache-aware development of high integrity real-time systems

Cost, performance and availability considerations are forcing even the most conservative high-integrity embedded real-time systems industry to migrate from simple hardware processors to ones equipped with caches and other acceleration features. This migration disrupts the practices and solutions that industry had developed and consolidated over the years to perform timing analysis. Industry that are confident with the efficiency/effectiveness of their verification and validation processes for old-generation processors, do not have sufficient insight on the effects of the migration to cache-equipped processors. Caches are perceived as an additional source of complexity, which has potential for shattering the guarantees of cost- and schedule-constrained qualification of their systems. The current industrial approach to timing analysis is ill-equipped to cope with the variability incurred by caches. Conversely, the application of advanced WCET analysis techniques on real-world industrial software, developed without analysability in mind, is hardly feasible. We propose a development approach aimed at minimising the cache jitters, as well as at enabling the application of advanced WCET analysis techniques to industrial systems. Our approach builds on:(i) identification of those software constructs that may impede or complicate timing analysis in industrial-scale systems; (ii) elaboration of practical means, under the model-driven engineering (MDE) paradigm, to enforce the automated generation of software that is analyzable by construction; (iii) implementation of a layout optimisation method to remove cache jitters stemming from the software layout in memory, with the intent of facilitating incremental software development, which is of high strategic interest to industry. The integration of those constituents in a structured approach to timing analysis achieves two interesting properties: the resulting software is analysable from the earliest releases onwards - as opposed to becoming so only when the system is final - and more easily amenable to advanced timing analysis by construction, regardless of the system scale and complexity.

Food Safety and Mineral Oil Contaminated Paperboard Packaging: an Analytical Challenge and a Migration Study

Food packaging protects food, but it can sometimes become a source of undesired contaminants. Paper based materials, despite being perceived as “natural” and safe, can contain volatile contaminants (especially if made from recycled paper) able to migrate to food, as mineral oil, phthalates and photoinitiators. Mineral oil is a petroleum product used as printing ink solvent for newspapers, magazines and packaging. From paperboard printing and from recycled fibers (if present), mineral oil migrates into food, even if dry, through the gas phase. Its toxicity is not fully evaluated, but a temporary Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 0.6 mg kg-1 has been established for saturated mineral oil hydrocarbons (MOSH), while aromatic hydrocarbons (MOAH) are more toxic. Extraction and analysis of MOSH and MOAH is difficult due to the thousands of molecules present. Extraction methods for packaging and food have been optimized, then applied for a “shopping trolley survey” on over 100 Italian and Swiss market products. Instrumental analyses were performed with online LC-GC/FID. Average concentration of MOSH in paperboards was 626 mg kg-1. Many had the potential of contaminating foods exceeding temporary ADI tens of times. A long term migration study was then designed to better understand migration kinetics. Egg pasta and müesli were chosen as representative (high surface/weight ratio). They were stored at different temperatures (4, 20, 30, 40 and 60°C) and conditions (free, shelved or boxed packs) for 1 year. MOSH and MOAH kinetic curves show that migration is a fast process, mostly influenced by temperature: in egg pasta (food in direct contact with paperboard), half of MOSH is transferred to food in a week at 40°C and in 8 months at 20°C. The internal plastic bag present in müesli slowed down the startup of migration, creating a “lag time” in the curves.