Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Emotional engagement and orienting: the effects of picture size on affective response

For their survival, humans and animals can rely on motivational systems which are specialized in assessing the valence and imminence of dangers and appetitive cues. The Orienting Response (OR) is a fundamental response pattern that an organism executes whenever a novel or significant stimulus is detected, and has been shown to be consistently modulated by the affective value of a stimulus. However, detecting threatening stimuli and appetitive affordances while they are far away compared to when they are within reach constitutes an obvious evolutionary advantage. Building on the linear relationship between stimulus distance and retinal size, the present research was aimed at investigating the extent to which emotional modulation of distinct processes (action preparation, attentional capture, and subjective emotional state) is affected when reducing the retinal size of a picture. Studies 1-3 examined the effects of picture size on emotional response. Subjective feeling of engagement, as well as sympathetic activation, were modulated by picture size, suggesting that action preparation and subjective experience reflect the combined effects of detecting an arousing stimulus and assessing its imminence. On the other hand, physiological responses which are thought to reflect the amount of attentional resources invested in stimulus processing did not vary with picture size. Studies 4-6 were conducted to substantiate and extend the results of studies 1-3. In particular, it was noted that a decrease in picture size is associated with a loss in the low spatial frequencies of a picture, which might confound the interpretation of the results of studies 1-3. Therefore, emotional and neutral images which were either low-pass filtered or reduced in size were presented, and affective responses were measured. Most effects which were observed when manipulating image size were replicated by blurring pictures. However, pictures depicting highly arousing unpleasant contents were associated with a more pronounced decrease in affective modulation when pictures were reduced in size compared to when they were blurred. The present results provide important information for the study of processes involved in picture perception and in the genesis and expression of an emotional response. In particular, the availability of high spatial frequencies might affect the degree of activation of an internal representation of an affectively charged scene, and might modulate subjective emotional state and preparation for action. Moreover, the manipulation of stimulus imminence revealed important effects of stimulus engagement on specific components of the emotional response, and the implications of the present data for some models of emotions have been discussed. In particular, within the framework of a staged model of emotional response, the tactic and strategic role of response preparation and attention allocation to stimuli varying in engaging power has been discussed, considering the adaptive advantages that each might represent in an evolutionary view. Finally, the identification of perceptual parameters that allow affective processing to be carried out has important methodological applications in future studies examining emotional response in basic research or clinical contexts.