Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Effect of different management intensities on natural and human-induced carbon fluxes in a golf course in northern Italy

Turfgrasses are ubiquitous in urban landscape and their role on carbon (C) cycle is increasing important also due to the considerable footprint related to their management practices. It is crucial to understand the mechanisms driving the C assimilation potential of these terrestrial ecosystems Several approaches have been proposed to assess C dynamics: micro-meteorological methods, small-chamber enclosure system (SC), chrono-sequence approach and various models. Natural and human-induced variables influence turfgrasses C fluxes. Species composition, environmental conditions, site characteristics, former land use and agronomic management are the most important factors considered in literature driving C sequestration potential. At the same time different approaches seem to influence C budget estimates. In order to study the effect of different management intensities on turfgrass, we estimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE) through a SC approach in a hole of a golf course in the province of Verona (Italy) for one year. The SC approach presented several advantages but also limits related to the measurement frequency, timing and duration overtime, and to the methodological errors connected to the measuring system. Daily CO2 fluxes changed according to the intensity of maintenance, likely due to different inputs and disturbances affecting biogeochemical cycles, combined also to the different leaf area index (LAI). The annual cumulative NEE decreased with the increase of the intensity of management. NEE was related to the seasonality of turfgrass, following temperatures and physiological activity. Generally on the growing season CO2 fluxes towards atmosphere exceeded C sequestered. The cumulative NEE showed a system near to a steady state for C dynamics. In the final part greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions due to fossil fuel consumption for turfgrass upkeep were estimated, pinpointing that turfgrass may result a considerable C source. The C potential of trees and shrubs needs to be considered to obtain a complete budget.

Volunteer-based coral reef monitoring: reliability of data, environmental education and implications for conservation

Coral reefs are the most biodiverse ecosystems of the ocean and they provide notable ecosystem services. Nowadays, they are facing a number of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change is threatening their survivorship on a global scale. Large-scale monitoring is necessary to understand environmental changes and to perform useful conservation measurements. Governmental agencies are often underfunded and are not able of sustain the necessary spatial and temporal large-scale monitoring. To overcome the economic constrains, in some cases scientists can engage volunteers in environmental monitoring. Citizen Science enables the collection and analysis of scientific data at larger spatial and temporal scales than otherwise possible, addressing issues that are otherwise logistically or financially unfeasible. “STE: Scuba Tourism for the Environment” was a volunteer-based Red Sea coral reef biodiversity monitoring program. SCUBA divers and snorkelers were involved in the collection of data for 72 taxa, by completing survey questionnaires after their dives. In my thesis, I evaluated the reliability of the data collected by volunteers, comparing their questionnaires with those completed by professional scientists. Validation trials showed a sufficient level of reliability, indicating that non-specialists performed similarly to conservation volunteer divers on accurate transects. Using the data collected by volunteers, I developed a biodiversity index that revealed spatial trends across surveyed areas. The project results provided important feedbacks to the local authorities on the current health status of Red Sea coral reefs and on the effectiveness of the environmental management. I also analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of each surveyed taxa, identifying abundance trends related with anthropogenic impacts. Finally, I evaluated the effectiveness of the project to increase the environmental education of volunteers and showed that the participation in STEproject significantly increased both the knowledge on coral reef biology and ecology and the awareness of human behavioural impacts on the environment.