Analisi della dinamica e composizione chimica del particolato atmosferico mediante un modello alla mesoscala

The vertical profile of aerosol in the planetary boundary layer of the Milan urban area is studied in terms of its development and chemical composition in a high-resolution modelling framework. The period of study spans a week in summer of 2007 (12-18 July), when continuous LIDAR measurements and a limited set of balloon profiles were collected in the frame of the ASI/QUITSAT project. LIDAR observations show a diurnal development of an aerosol plume that lifts early morning surface emissions to the top of the boundary layer, reaching maximum concentration around midday. Mountain breeze from Alps clean the bottom of the aerosol layer, typically leaving a residual layer at around 1500-2000 m which may survive for several days. During the last two days under analysis, a dust layer transported from Sahara reaches the upper layers of Milan area and affects the aerosol vertical distribution in the boundary layer. Simulation from the MM5/CHIMERE modelling system, carried out at 1 km horizontal resolution, qualitatively reproduced the general features of the Milan aerosol layer observed with LIDAR, including the rise and fall of the aersol plume, the residual layer in altitude and the Saharan dust event. The simulation highlighted the importance of nitrates and secondary organics in its composition. Several sensitivity tests showed that main driving factors leading to the dominance of nitrates in the plume are temperature and gas absorption process. A modelling study turn to the analysis of the vertical aerosol profiles distribution and knowledge of the characterization of the PM at a site near the city of Milan is performed using a model system composed by a meteorological model MM5 (V3-6), the mesoscale model from PSU/NCAR and a Chemical Transport Model (CTM) CHIMERE to simulate the vertical aerosol profile. LiDAR continuous observations and balloon profiles collected during two intensive campaigns in summer 2007 and in winter 2008 in the frame of the ASI/QUITSAT project have been used to perform comparisons in order to evaluate the ability of the aerosol chemistry transport model CHIMERE to simulate the aerosols dynamics and compositions in this area. The comparisons of model aerosols with measurements are carried out over a full time period between 12 July 2007 and 18 July 2007. The comparisons demonstrate the ability of the model to reproduce correctly the aerosol vertical distributions and their temporal variability. As detected by the LiDAR, the model during the period considered, predicts a diurnal development of a plume during the morning and a clearing during the afternoon, typically the plume reaches the top of the boundary layer around mid day, in this time CHIMERE produces highest concentrations in the upper levels as detected by LiDAR. The model, moreover can reproduce LiDAR observes enhancement aerosols concentrations above the boundary layer, attributing the phenomena to dust out intrusion. Another important information from the model analysis regard the composition , it predicts that a large part of the plume is composed by nitrate, in particular during 13 and 16 July 2007 , pointing to the model tendency to overestimates the nitrous component in the particular matter vertical structure . Sensitivity study carried out in this work show that there are a combination of different factor which determine the major nitrous composition of the “plume” observed and in particular humidity temperature and the absorption phenomena are the mainly candidate to explain the principal difference in composition simulated in the period object of this study , in particular , the CHIMERE model seems to be mostly sensitive to the absorption process.

Radar based improvements and diagnosis of the convective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model

In the last few years the resolution of numerical weather prediction (nwp) became higher and higher with the progresses of technology and knowledge. As a consequence, a great number of initial data became fundamental for a correct initialization of the models. The potential of radar observations has long been recognized for improving the initial conditions of high-resolution nwp models, while operational application becomes more frequent. The fact that many nwp centres have recently taken into operations convection-permitting forecast models, many of which assimilate radar data, emphasizes the need for an approach to providing quality information which is needed in order to avoid that radar errors degrade the model's initial conditions and, therefore, its forecasts. Environmental risks can can be related with various causes: meteorological, seismical, hydrological/hydraulic. Flash floods have horizontal dimension of 1-20 Km and can be inserted in mesoscale gamma subscale, this scale can be modeled only with nwp model with the highest resolution as the COSMO-2 model. One of the problems of modeling extreme convective events is related with the atmospheric initial conditions, in fact the scale dimension for the assimilation of atmospheric condition in an high resolution model is about 10 Km, a value too high for a correct representation of convection initial conditions. Assimilation of radar data with his resolution of about of Km every 5 or 10 minutes can be a solution for this problem. In this contribution a pragmatic and empirical approach to deriving a radar data quality description is proposed to be used in radar data assimilation and more specifically for the latent heat nudging (lhn) scheme. Later the the nvective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model are investigated through some case studies. Finally, this work shows some preliminary experiments of coupling of a high resolution meteorological model with an Hydrological one.