Development of musculoskeletal models for the design and the pre-clinical validation of hip resurfacing prosthesis

Background. The surgical treatment of dysfunctional hips is a severe condition for the patient and a costly therapy for the public health. Hip resurfacing techniques seem to hold the promise of various advantages over traditional THR, with particular attention to young and active patients. Although the lesson provided in the past by many branches of engineering is that success in designing competitive products can be achieved only by predicting the possible scenario of failure, to date the understanding of the implant quality is poorly pre-clinically addressed. Thus revision is the only delayed and reliable end point for assessment. The aim of the present work was to model the musculoskeletal system so as to develop a protocol for predicting failure of hip resurfacing prosthesis. Methods. Preliminary studies validated the technique for the generation of subject specific finite element (FE) models of long bones from Computed Thomography data. The proposed protocol consisted in the numerical analysis of the prosthesis biomechanics by deterministic and statistic studies so as to assess the risk of biomechanical failure on the different operative conditions the implant might face in a population of interest during various activities of daily living. Physiological conditions were defined including the variability of the anatomy, bone densitometry, surgery uncertainties and published boundary conditions at the hip. The protocol was tested by analysing a successful design on the market and a new prototype of a resurfacing prosthesis. Results. The intrinsic accuracy of models on bone stress predictions (RMSE < 10%) was aligned to the current state of the art in this field. The accuracy of prediction on the bone-prosthesis contact mechanics was also excellent (< 0.001 mm). The sensitivity of models prediction to uncertainties on modelling parameter was found below 8.4%. The analysis of the successful design resulted in a very good agreement with published retrospective studies. The geometry optimisation of the new prototype lead to a final design with a low risk of failure. The statistical analysis confirmed the minimal risk of the optimised design over the entire population of interest. The performances of the optimised design showed a significant improvement with respect to the first prototype (+35%). Limitations. On the authors opinion the major limitation of this study is on boundary conditions. The muscular forces and the hip joint reaction were derived from the few data available in the literature, which can be considered significant but hardly representative of the entire variability of boundary conditions the implant might face over the patients population. This moved the focus of the research on modelling the musculoskeletal system; the ongoing activity is to develop subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the lower limb from medical images. Conclusions. The developed protocol was able to accurately predict known clinical outcomes when applied to a well-established device and, to support the design optimisation phase providing important information on critical characteristics of the patients when applied to a new prosthesis. The presented approach does have a relevant generality that would allow the extension of the protocol to a large set of orthopaedic scenarios with minor changes. Hence, a failure mode analysis criterion can be considered a suitable tool in developing new orthopaedic devices.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Effetti clinici e biologici della terapia epigenetica nelle sindromi mielodisplastiche a basso rischio

Background: Nucleoside 5-Azacitidine (5-Aza) in high risk MDS patients (pts) at a dose of 75mg/mq/day subcutaneously for 7 days, every 28 days, induces high hematologic response rates (hematologic improvement (HI) 50-60%, complete remission (CR) 10-30%) and prolongation of survival (at 2 years 50,8%). Aim: The role of 5-Aza in low-risk MDS patients is not well defined but its use in the earlier phases of disease could be more effective and useful to control the expansion of MDS clone and disease progression. In our phase II, prospective, multicentric trial a low-dose schedule of 5-Aza (75 mg/mq daily for 5 consecutive days every 28 days) was given to low-risk MDS pts in order to evaluate its efficacy and tolerability and to identify biological markers to predict the response. Methods: From September 2008 to February 2010, 34 patients were enrolled into the study. Fifteen patients had refractory anemia (RA), 5 patients refractory anemia with ringed sideroblasts (RARS), 7 patients refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia (RCMD) and 7 patients refractory anemia with excess blasts-1 (RAEB-1). All patients failed previously EPO therapy and were in chronic red blood cell (RBC) supportive care with a median transfusions requirement of 4 units/monthly. The response treatment criteria was according to IWG 2006. Results: At present time 31 out of 34 pts are evaluable: 12/31 pts (39%) completed the treatment plan (8 courses), 7/31 pts (22%) performed the first 4 courses, 8/31 (26%) made 1 to 3 courses and 4/31 (13%) died during the treatment period. Out of 12 pts who completed the 8 courses of therapy 10 (83%) obtained an HI, 2/12 (17%) maintained a stable disease. Out of 10 pts who obtained HI, 4 pts (40%) achieved a CR. Generally the drug was very well tolerated. The most commonly reported hematologic toxicities were neutropenia (55%) and thrombocytopenia (19%) but they were transitory and usually no delay of treatment was necessary. 2/4 pts died early after the 1th cycle for septic shock and gastrointestinal hemorrage respectively whereas 2/4 pts died in a condition of stable disease after the 4th cycle for pneumonia and respiratory distress. Samples for biologic studies have been collected from the pts before starting the therapy and at the end of 4th and 8th course. Preliminary data on the lipid signalling pathways suggested a direct correlation between PI-PLC-β1 gene expression and 5-Aza responsiveness. Conclusion: Interim analysis of our study based on the small number of cases who completed the treatment program, shows that 83% of pts obtain an HI and 40% obtain a CR. 4 patients died during the treatment and even if the causes were reported as no related to the therapy it has been considered that caution has to be reserved in given 5-Aza in these pts who are elderly and frail. Preliminary data of PI-PLC-β1 gene expression suggest that this and probably other biological markers could help us to know a priori who are the patients who have more chances to respond.

International cooperation in endourology: percutaneous and flexible ureteroscopic treatment of lower pole kidney stones

Introduction Lower pole kidney stones represent at time a challenge for the urologist. The gold standard treatment for intrarenal stones <2 cm is Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (ESWL) while for those >2 cm is Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy (PCNL). The success rate of ESWL, however, decreases when it is employed for lower pole stones, and this is particularly true in the presence of narrow calices or acute infundibular angles. Studies have proved that ureteroscopy (URS) is an efficacious alternative to ESWL for lower pole stones <2 cm, but this is not reflected by either the European or the American guidelines. The aim of this study is to present the results of a large series of flexible ureteroscopies and PCNLs for lower pole kidney stones from high-volume centers, in order to provide more evidences on the potential indications of the flexible ureteroscopy for the treatment of kidney stones. Materials and Methods A database was created and the participating centres retrospectively entered their data relating to the percutaneous and flexible ureteroscopic management of lower pole kidney stones. Patients included were treated between January 2005 and January 2010. Variables analyzed included case load number, preoperative and postoperative imaging, stone burden, anaesthesia (general vs. spinal), type of lithotripter, access location and size, access dilation type, ureteral access sheath use, visual clarity, operative time, stone-free rate, complication rate, hospital stay, analgesic requirement and follow-up time. Stone-free rate was defined as absence of residual fragments or presence of a single fragment <2 mm in size at follow-up imaging. Primary end-point was to test the efficacy and safety of flexible URS for the treatment of lower pole stones; the same descriptive analysis was conducted for the PCNL approach, as considered the gold standard for the treatment of lower pole kidney stones. In this setting, no statistical analysis was conducted owing to the different selection criteria of the patients. Secondary end-point consisted in matching the results of stone-free rates, operative time and complications rate of flexible URS and PCNL in the subgroup of patients harbouring lower pole kidney stones between 1 and 2 cm in the higher diameter. Results A total 246 patients met the criteria for inclusion. There were 117 PCNLs (group 1) and 129 flexible URS (group 2). Ninety-six percent of cases were diagnosed by CT KUB scan. Mean stone burden was 175±160 and 50±62 mm2 for groups 1 and 2, respectively. General anaesthesia was induced in 100 % and 80% of groups 1 and 2, respectively. Pneumo-ultrasonic energy was used in 84% of cases in the PCNL group, and holmium laser in 95% of the cases in the flexible URS group. The mean operative time was 76.9±44 and 63±37 minutes for groups 1 and 2 respectively. There were 12 major complications (11%) in group 1 (mainly Grade II complications according to Clavidien classification) and no major complications in group 2. Mean hospital stay was 5.7 and 2.6 days for groups 1 and 2, respectively. Ninety-five percent of group 1 and 52% of group 2 required analgesia for a period longer than 24 hours. Intraoperative stone-free rate after a single treatment was 88.9% for group 1 and 79.1% for group 2. Overall, 6% of group 1 and 14.7% of group 2 required a second look procedure. At 3 months, stone-free rates were 90.6% and 92.2% for groups 1 and 2, respectively, as documented by follow-up CT KUB (22%) or combination of intra-venous pyelogram, regular KUB and/or kidney ultrasound (78%). In the subanalysis conducted comparing 82 vs 65 patients who underwent PCNL and flexible URS for lower pole stones between 1 and 2 cm, intreoperative stone-free rates were 88% vs 68% (p= 0.03), respectively; anyway, after an auxiliary procedure which was necessary in 6% of the cases in group 1 and 23% in group 2 (p=0.03), stone-free rates at 3 months were not statistically significant (91.5% vs 89.2%; p=0.6). Conversely, the patients undergoing PCNL maintained a higher risk of complications during the procedure, with 9 cases observed in this group versus 0 in the group of patients treated with URS (p=0.01) Conclusions These data highlight the value of flexible URS as a very effective and safe option for the treatment of kidney stones; thanks to the latest generation of flexible devices, this new technical approach seems to be a valid alternative in particular for the treatment of lower pole kidney stones less than 2 cm. In high-volume centres and in the hands of skilled surgeons, this technique can approach the stone-free rates achievable through PCNL in lower pole stones between 1 and 2 cm, with a very low risk of complications. Furthermore, the results confirm the high success rate and relatively low morbidity of modern PCNL for lower pole stones, with no difference detectable between the prone and supine position.

Identificazione di un profilo molecolare di rischio nei pazienti pediatrici affetti da Linfoma di Hodgkin

Obiettivi: nonostante i miglioramenti nel trattamento, circa il 30% dei pazienti pediatrici affetti da Linfoma di Hodgkin (LH) in stadio avanzato recidiva o muore per progressione di malattia e i correnti metodi predittivi biologico-clinici non consentono di individuare tali pazienti. L’obiettivo dello studio è stato quello di definire un profilo molecolare di rischio che correli con l’outcome in questi pazienti. Materiali e metodi: studio retrospettico condotto su pazienti pediatrici affetti da LH omogeneamente trattati dal 2004 in poi. Su tali pazienti è stato intrapreso uno studio di validazione di marcatori molecolari già identificati in studi esplorativi precedenti. 27 geni sono stati analizzati in RT PCR su campioni di tessuto istologico prelevato alla diagnosi fissato in formalina e processato in paraffina relativi a una coorte di 37 pazienti, 12 ad outcome sfavorevole e 25 ad outcome favorevole. Risultati: dall’analisi univariata è emerso che solo l’espressione di CASP3 e CYCS, appartenenti al pathway apoptotico, è in grado di influenzare l’EFS in modo significativo nella nostra coorte di pazienti. Lo studio delle possibili combinazioni di questi geni ha mostrato l’esistenza di 3 gruppi di rischio che correlano con l’EFS: alto rischio (down regolazione di entrambi i geni), rischio intermedio (down regolazione di uno solo dei 2 geni), basso rischio (up regolazione di entrambi i geni). Dall’analisi multivariata è emerso che CASP3 è l’unica variabile che mantiene la sua indipendenza nell’influenzare la prognosi con un rischio di eventi di oltre il doppio di chi ha un’espressione bassa di questo gene. Conclusioni: i risultati ottenuti sulla nostra coorte di pazienti pediatrici affetti da LH confermano l’impatto sulla prognosi di due marcatori molecolari CASP3 e CYCS coinvolti nel patwhay apoptotico. La valutazione del profilo di espressione di tali geni, potrebbe pertanto essere utilizzata in corso di stadiazione, come criterio di predittività.

Determinants of cesarean delivery, a population-based study in the Emilia Romagna Region

Cesarean Delivery (CD) rates are rising in many parts of the world. In order to define strategies to reduce them, it is important to explore the role of clinical and organizational factors. This thesis has the objective to describe the contemporary CD practice and study clinical and organizational variables as determinants of CD in all women who gave birth between 2005 and June 2010 in the Emilia Romagna region (Italy). All hospital discharge abstracts of women who delivered between 2005 and mid 2010 in the region were selected and linked with birth certificates. In addition to descriptive statistics, in order to study the role of clinical and organizational variables (teaching or non-teaching hospital, birth volumes, time and day of delivery) multilevel Poisson regression models and a classification tree were used. A substantial inter-hospital variability in CD rate was found, and this was only partially explained by the considered variables. The most important risk factors of CD were: previous CD (RR 4,95; 95%CI: 4,85-5,05), cord prolapse (RR 3,51; 95% CI:2,96-4,16), and malposition/malpresentation (RR 2,72; 95%CI: 2,66-2,77). Delivery between 7 pm and 7 am and during non working days protect against CD in all subgroups including those with a small number of elective CDs while delivery at a teaching hospital and birth volumes were not statistically significant risk factors. The classification tree shows that previous CD and malposition/malpresentation are the most important variables discriminating between high and low risk of CD. These results indicate that other not considered factors might explain CD variability and do not provide clear evidence that small hospitals have a poor performance in terms of CD rate. Some strategies to reduce CD could be found by focusing on the differences in delivery practice between day and night and between working and no-working day deliveries.

Effetto dell'analgesia epidurale sulla progressione della testa fetale valutata mediante ecografia 3D

Introduzione: L'analgesia epidurale è stata messa in correlazione con l'aumento della durata del secondo stadio del travaglio e del tasso di utilizzo della ventosa ostetrica. Diversi meccanismi sono stati ipotizzati, tra cui la riduzione di percezione della discesa fetale, della forza di spinta e dei riflessi che promuovono la progressione e rotazione della testa fetale nel canale del parto. Tali parametri sono solitamente valutati mediante esame clinico digitale, costantemente riportato essere poco accurato e riproducibile. Su queste basi l'uso dell'ecografia in travaglio, con introduzione di diversi parametri ecografici di valutazione della discesa della testa fetale, sono stati proposti per supportare la diagnosi clinica nel secondo stadio del travaglio. Scopi dello studio: studiare effetto dell’analgesia epidurale sulla progressione della testa fetale durante il II stadio del travaglio valutata mediante ecografia intrapartum. Materiali e metodi: una serie di pazienti nullipare a basso rischio a termine (37+0-42+0) sono state reclutate in modo prospettico nella sala parto del nostro Policlinico Universitario. In ciascuna di esse abbiamo acquisito un volume ecografico ogni 20 minuti dall’inizio della fase attiva del secondo stadio fino al parto ed una serie di parametri ecografici sono stati ricavati in un secondo tempo (angolo di progressione, distanza di progressione distanza testa sinfisi pubica e midline angle). Tutti questi parametri sono stati confrontati ad ogni intervallo di tempo nei due gruppi. Risultati: 71 pazienti totali, di cui 41 (57.7%) con analgesia epidurale. In 58 (81.7%) casi il parto è stato spontaneo, mentre in 8 (11.3%) e 5 (7.0%) casi rispettivamente si è ricorsi a ventosa ostetrica o taglio cesareo. I valori di tutti i parametri ecografici misurati sono risultati sovrapponibili nei due gruppi in tutti gli intervalli di misurazione. Conclusioni: la progressione della testa fetale valutata longitudinalmente mediante ecografia 3D non sembra differire significativamente nelle pazienti con o senza analgesia epidurale.

Profili di espressione genetica ed epigenetica ad impatto prognostico e predittivo nel carcinoma squamoso e nelle lesioni potenzialmente maligne del cavo orale

Il carcinoma squamoso orale (CSO) è spesso preceduto da lesioni definite potenzialmente maligne tra cui la leucoplachia e il lichen ma una diagnosi precoce avviene ancora oggi in meno della metà dei casi. Inoltre spesso un paziente trattato per CSO svilupperà secondi tumori. Scopo del lavoro di ricerca è stato: 1) Studiare, mediante metodica di next generation sequencing, lo stato di metilazione di un gruppo di geni a partire da prelievi brushing del cavo orale al fine di identificare CSO o lesioni ad alto rischio di trasformazione maligna. 2) Valurare la relazione esistente tra sovraespressione di p16INK4A e presenza di HPV in 35 pazienti affetti da lichen 3) Valutare la presenza di marker istopatologici predittivi di comparsa di seconde manifestazioni tumorali 4) valutare la relazione clonale tra tumore primitivo e metastasi linfonodale in 8 pazienti mediante 2 metodiche di clonalità differenti: l’analisi di mtDNA e delle mutazioni del gene TP53. I risultati hanno mostrato: 1) i geni ZAP70 e GP1BB hanno presentato un alterato stato di metilazione rispettivamente nel 100% e nel 90,9% di CSO e lesioni ad alto rischio, mentre non sono risultati metilati nei controlli sani; ipotizzando un ruolo come potenziali marcatori per la diagnosi precoce nel CSO. 2)Una sovraespressione di p16INK4A è risultata in 26/35 pazienti affetti da lichen ma HPV-DNA è stato identificato in soli 4 campioni. Nessuna relazione sembra essere tra sovraespressione di p16INK4A e virus HPV. 3)L’invasione perineurale è risultato un marker predittivo della comparsa di recidiva locale e metastasi linfonodale, mentre lo stato dei margini chirurgici si è rilevato un fattore predittivo per la comparsa di secondi tumori primitivi 4) Un totale accordo nei risultati c’è stato tra analisi di mtDNA e analisi di TP53 e le due metodiche hanno identificato la presenza di 4 metastasi linfonodali non clonalmente correlate al tumore primitivo.

Non Invasive Tools for Early Detection of Autism Spectrum Disorders

Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs) describe a set of neurodevelopmental disorders. ASD represents a significant public health problem. Currently, ASDs are not diagnosed before the 2nd year of life but an early identification of ASDs would be crucial as interventions are much more effective than specific therapies starting in later childhood. To this aim, cheap an contact-less automatic approaches recently aroused great clinical interest. Among them, the cry and the movements of the newborn, both involving the central nervous system, are proposed as possible indicators of neurological disorders. This PhD work is a first step towards solving this challenging problem. An integrated system is presented enabling the recording of audio (crying) and video (movements) data of the newborn, their automatic analysis with innovative techniques for the extraction of clinically relevant parameters and their classification with data mining techniques. New robust algorithms were developed for the selection of the voiced parts of the cry signal, the estimation of acoustic parameters based on the wavelet transform and the analysis of the infant’s general movements (GMs) through a new body model for segmentation and 2D reconstruction. In addition to a thorough literature review this thesis presents the state of the art on these topics that shows that no studies exist concerning normative ranges for newborn infant cry in the first 6 months of life nor the correlation between cry and movements. Through the new automatic methods a population of control infants (“low-risk”, LR) was compared to a group of “high-risk” (HR) infants, i.e. siblings of children already diagnosed with ASD. A subset of LR infants clinically diagnosed as newborns with Typical Development (TD) and one affected by ASD were compared. The results show that the selected acoustic parameters allow good differentiation between the two groups. This result provides new perspectives both diagnostic and therapeutic.