An Analysis of Living Conditions in Rural Villages in China. A New Geography of the Country.

Analysts, politicians and international players from all over the world look at China as one of the most powerful countries on the international scenario, and as a country whose economic development can significantly impact on the economies of the rest of the world. However many aspects of this country have still to be investigated. First the still fundamental role played by Chinese rural areas for the general development of the country from a political, economic and social point of view. In particular, the way in which the rural areas have influenced the social stability of the whole country has been widely discussed due to their strict relationship with the urban areas where most people from the countryside emigrate searching for a job and a better life. In recent years many studies have mostly focused on the urbanization phenomenon with little interest in the living conditions in rural areas and in the deep changes which have occurred in some, mainly agricultural provinces. An analysis of the level of infrastructure is one of the main aspects which highlights the principal differences in terms of living conditions between rural and urban areas. In this thesis, I first carried out the analysis through the multivariate statistics approach (Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis) in order to define the new map of rural areas based on the analysis of living conditions. In the second part I elaborated an index (Living Conditions Index) through the Fuzzy Expert/Inference System. Finally I compared this index (LCI) to the results obtained from the cluster analysis drawing geographic maps. The data source is the second national agricultural census of China carried out in 2006. In particular, I analysed the data refer to villages but aggregated at province level.

Statistical analysis of the error associated with the simplification of the stratigraphy in geotechnical models

The uncertainties in the determination of the stratigraphic profile of natural soils is one of the main problems in geotechnics, in particular for landslide characterization and modeling. The study deals with a new approach in geotechnical modeling which relays on a stochastic generation of different soil layers distributions, following a boolean logic – the method has been thus called BoSG (Boolean Stochastic Generation). In this way, it is possible to randomize the presence of a specific material interdigitated in a uniform matrix. In the building of a geotechnical model it is generally common to discard some stratigraphic data in order to simplify the model itself, assuming that the significance of the results of the modeling procedure would not be affected. With the proposed technique it is possible to quantify the error associated with this simplification. Moreover, it could be used to determine the most significant zones where eventual further investigations and surveys would be more effective to build the geotechnical model of the slope. The commercial software FLAC was used for the 2D and 3D geotechnical model. The distribution of the materials was randomized through a specifically coded MatLab program that automatically generates text files, each of them representing a specific soil configuration. Besides, a routine was designed to automate the computation of FLAC with the different data files in order to maximize the sample number. The methodology is applied with reference to a simplified slope in 2D, a simplified slope in 3D and an actual landslide, namely the Mortisa mudslide (Cortina d’Ampezzo, BL, Italy). However, it could be extended to numerous different cases, especially for hydrogeological analysis and landslide stability assessment, in different geological and geomorphological contexts.