On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms

The main topic of this thesis is confounding in linear regression models. It arises when a relationship between an observed process, the covariate, and an outcome process, the response, is influenced by an unmeasured process, the confounder, associated with both. Consequently, the estimators for the regression coefficients of the measured covariates might be severely biased, less efficient and characterized by misleading interpretations. Confounding is an issue when the primary target of the work is the estimation of the regression parameters. The central point of the dissertation is the evaluation of the sampling properties of parameter estimators. This work aims to extend the spatial confounding framework to general structured settings and to understand the behaviour of confounding as a function of the data generating process structure parameters in several scenarios focusing on the joint covariate-confounder structure. In line with the spatial statistics literature, our purpose is to quantify the sampling properties of the regression coefficient estimators and, in turn, to identify the most prominent quantities depending on the generative mechanism impacting confounding. Once the sampling properties of the estimator conditionally on the covariate process are derived as ratios of dependent quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables, we provide an analytic expression of the marginal sampling properties of the estimator using Carlson’s R function. Additionally, we propose a representative quantity for the magnitude of confounding as a proxy of the bias, its first-order Laplace approximation. To conclude, we work under several frameworks considering spatial and temporal data with specific assumptions regarding the covariance and cross-covariance functions used to generate the processes involved. This study allows us to claim that the variability of the confounder-covariate interaction and of the covariate plays the most relevant role in determining the principal marker of the magnitude of confounding.

Seemingly unrelated linear regression for contaminated data based on Gaussian mixtures

In this thesis, new classes of models for multivariate linear regression defined by finite mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regression models and seemingly unrelated contaminated normal cluster-weighted models are illustrated. The main difference between such families is that the covariates are treated as fixed in the former class of models and as random in the latter. Thus, in cluster-weighted models the assignment of the data points to the unknown groups of observations depends also by the covariates. These classes provide an extension to mixture-based regression analysis for modelling multivariate and correlated responses in the presence of mild outliers that allows to specify a different vector of regressors for the prediction of each response. Expectation-conditional maximisation algorithms for the calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters have been derived. As the number of free parameters incresases quadratically with the number of responses and the covariates, analyses based on the proposed models can become unfeasible in practical applications. These problems have been overcome by introducing constraints on the elements of the covariance matrices according to an approach based on the eigen-decomposition of the covariance matrices. The performances of the new models have been studied by simulations and using real datasets in comparison with other models. In order to gain additional flexibility, mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regressions models have also been specified so as to allow mixing proportions to be expressed as functions of concomitant covariates. An illustration of the new models with concomitant variables and a study on housing tension in the municipalities of the Emilia-Romagna region based on different types of multivariate linear regression models have been performed.

Identification of Drosophila heart-specific Cis-Regulatory Modules under Hox control

Cardiac morphogenesis is a complex process governed by evolutionarily conserved transcription factors and signaling molecules. The Drosophila cardiac tube is linear, made of 52 pairs of cardiomyocytes (CMs), which express specific transcription factor genes that have human homologues implicated in Congenital Heart Diseases (CHDs) (NKX2-5, GATA4 and TBX5). The Drosophila cardiac tube is linear and composed of a rostral portion named aorta and a caudal one called heart, distinguished by morphological and functional differences controlled by Hox genes, key regulators of axial patterning. Overexpression and inactivation of the Hox gene abdominal-A (abd-A), which is expressed exclusively in the heart, revealed that abd-A controls heart identity. The aim of our work is to isolate the heart-specific cisregulatory sequences of abd-A direct target genes, the realizator genes granting heart identity. In each segment of the heart, four pairs of cardiomyocytes (CMs) express tinman (tin), homologous to NKX2-5, and acquire strong contractile and automatic rhythmic activities. By tyramide amplified FISH, we found that seven genes, encoding ion channels, pumps or transporters, are specifically expressed in the Tin-CMs of the heart. We initially used online available tools to identify their heart-specific cisregutatory modules by looking for Conserved Non-coding Sequences containing clusters of binding sites for various cardiac transcription factors, including Hox proteins. Based on these data we generated several reporter gene constructs and transgenic embryos, but none of them showed reporter gene expression in the heart. In order to identify additional abd-A target genes, we performed microarray experiments comparing the transcriptomes of aorta versus heart and identified 144 genes overexpressed in the heart. In order to find the heart-specific cis-regulatory regions of these target genes we developed a new bioinformatic approach where prediction is based on pattern matching and ordered statistics. We first retrieved Conserved Noncoding Sequences from the alignment between the D.melanogaster and D.pseudobscura genomes. We scored for combinations of conserved occurrences of ABD-A, ABD-B, TIN, PNR, dMEF2, MADS box, T-box and E-box sites and we ranked these results based on two independent strategies. On one hand we ranked the putative cis-regulatory sequences according to best scored ABD-A biding sites, on the other hand we scored according to conservation of binding sites. We integrated and ranked again the two lists obtained independently to produce a final rank. We generated nGFP reporter construct flies for in vivo validation. We identified three 1kblong heart-specific enhancers. By in vivo and in vitro experiments we are determining whether they are direct abd-A targets, demonstrating the role of a Hox gene in the realization of heart identity. The identified abd-A direct target genes may be targets also of the NKX2-5, GATA4 and/or TBX5 homologues tin, pannier and Doc genes, respectively. The identification of sequences coregulated by a Hox protein and the homologues of transcription factors causing CHDs, will provide a mean to test whether these factors function as Hox cofactors granting cardiac specificity to Hox proteins, increasing our knowledge on the molecular mechanisms underlying CHDs. Finally, it may be investigated whether these Hox targets are involved in CHDs.

Seizure prediction and control in epilepsy

The first part of my thesis presents an overview of the different approaches used in the past two decades in the attempt to forecast epileptic seizure on the basis of intracranial and scalp EEG. Past research could reveal some value of linear and nonlinear algorithms to detect EEG features changing over different phases of the epileptic cycle. However, their exact value for seizure prediction, in terms of sensitivity and specificity, is still discussed and has to be evaluated. In particular, the monitored EEG features may fluctuate with the vigilance state and lead to false alarms. Recently, such a dependency on vigilance states has been reported for some seizure prediction methods, suggesting a reduced reliability. An additional factor limiting application and validation of most seizure-prediction techniques is their computational load. For the first time, the reliability of permutation entropy [PE] was verified in seizure prediction on scalp EEG data, contemporarily controlling for its dependency on different vigilance states. PE was recently introduced as an extremely fast and robust complexity measure for chaotic time series and thus suitable for online application even in portable systems. The capability of PE to distinguish between preictal and interictal state has been demonstrated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. Correlation analysis was used to assess dependency of PE on vigilance states. Scalp EEG-Data from two right temporal epileptic lobe (RTLE) patients and from one patient with right frontal lobe epilepsy were analysed. The last patient was included only in the correlation analysis, since no datasets including seizures have been available for him. The ROC analysis showed a good separability of interictal and preictal phases for both RTLE patients, suggesting that PE could be sensitive to EEG modifications, not visible on visual inspection, that might occur well in advance respect to the EEG and clinical onset of seizures. However, the simultaneous assessment of the changes in vigilance showed that: a) all seizures occurred in association with the transition of vigilance states; b) PE was sensitive in detecting different vigilance states, independently of seizure occurrences. Due to the limitations of the datasets, these results cannot rule out the capability of PE to detect preictal states. However, the good separability between pre- and interictal phases might depend exclusively on the coincidence of epileptic seizure onset with a transition from a state of low vigilance to a state of increased vigilance. The finding of a dependency of PE on vigilance state is an original finding, not reported in literature, and suggesting the possibility to classify vigilance states by means of PE in an authomatic and objectic way. The second part of my thesis provides the description of a novel behavioral task based on motor imagery skills, firstly introduced (Bruzzo et al. 2007), in order to study mental simulation of biological and non-biological movement in paranoid schizophrenics (PS). Immediately after the presentation of a real movement, participants had to imagine or re-enact the very same movement. By key release and key press respectively, participants had to indicate when they started and ended the mental simulation or the re-enactment, making it feasible to measure the duration of the simulated or re-enacted movements. The proportional error between duration of the re-enacted/simulated movement and the template movement were compared between different conditions, as well as between PS and healthy subjects. Results revealed a double dissociation between the mechanisms of mental simulation involved in biological and non-biologial movement simulation. While for PS were found large errors for simulation of biological movements, while being more acurate than healthy subjects during simulation of non-biological movements. Healthy subjects showed the opposite relationship, making errors during simulation of non-biological movements, but being most accurate during simulation of non-biological movements. However, the good timing precision during re-enactment of the movements in all conditions and in both groups of participants suggests that perception, memory and attention, as well as motor control processes were not affected. Based upon a long history of literature reporting the existence of psychotic episodes in epileptic patients, a longitudinal study, using a slightly modified behavioral paradigm, was carried out with two RTLE patients, one patient with idiopathic generalized epilepsy and one patient with extratemporal lobe epilepsy. Results provide strong evidence for a possibility to predict upcoming seizures in RTLE patients behaviorally. In the last part of the thesis it has been validated a behavioural strategy based on neurobiofeedback training, to voluntarily control seizures and to reduce there frequency. Three epileptic patients were included in this study. The biofeedback was based on monitoring of slow cortical potentials (SCPs) extracted online from scalp EEG. Patients were trained to produce positive shifts of SCPs. After a training phase patients were monitored for 6 months in order to validate the ability of the learned strategy to reduce seizure frequency. Two of the three refractory epileptic patients recruited for this study showed improvements in self-management and reduction of ictal episodes, even six months after the last training session.

Non-Linear Analysis and Design of Synchronous Bearingless Multiphase Permanent Magnet Machines and Drives

A two-dimensional model to analyze the distribution of magnetic fields in the airgap of a PM electrical machines is studied. A numerical algorithm for non-linear magnetic analysis of multiphase surface-mounted PM machines with semi-closed slots is developed, based on the equivalent magnetic circuit method. By using a modular structure geometry, whose the basic element can be duplicated, it allows to design whatever typology of windings distribution. In comparison to a FEA, permits a reduction in computing time and to directly changing the values of the parameters in a user interface, without re-designing the model. Output torque and radial forces acting on the moving part of the machine can be calculated. In addition, an analytical model for radial forces calculation in multiphase bearingless Surface-Mounted Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (SPMSM) is presented. It allows to predict amplitude and direction of the force, depending on the values of torque current, of levitation current and of rotor position. It is based on the space vectors method, letting the analysis of the machine also during transients. The calculations are conducted by developing the analytical functions in Fourier series, taking all the possible interactions between stator and rotor mmf harmonic components into account and allowing to analyze the effects of electrical and geometrical quantities of the machine, being parametrized. The model is implemented in the design of a control system for bearingless machines, as an accurate electromagnetic model integrated in a three-dimensional mechanical model, where one end of the motor shaft is constrained to simulate the presence of a mechanical bearing, while the other is free, only supported by the radial forces developed in the interactions between magnetic fields, to realize a bearingless system with three degrees of freedom. The complete model represents the design of the experimental system to be realized in the laboratory.

Extending Implicit Computational Complexity and Abstract Machines to Languages with Control

The Curry-Howard isomorphism is the idea that proofs in natural deduction can be put in correspondence with lambda terms in such a way that this correspondence is preserved by normalization. The concept can be extended from Intuitionistic Logic to other systems, such as Linear Logic. One of the nice conseguences of this isomorphism is that we can reason about functional programs with formal tools which are typical of proof systems: such analysis can also include quantitative qualities of programs, such as the number of steps it takes to terminate. Another is the possiblity to describe the execution of these programs in terms of abstract machines. In 1990 Griffin proved that the correspondence can be extended to Classical Logic and control operators. That is, Classical Logic adds the possiblity to manipulate continuations. In this thesis we see how the things we described above work in this larger context.

Dynamics and control issues of multi-rotor platforms

This thesis deals with the analytic study of dynamics of Multi--Rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. It is conceived to give a set of mathematical instruments apt to the theoretical study and design of these flying machines. The entire work is organized in analogy with classical academic texts about airplane flight dynamics. First, the non--linear equations of motion are defined and all the external actions are modeled, with particular attention to rotors aerodynamics. All the equations are provided in a form, and with personal expedients, to be directly exploitable in a simulation environment. This has requited an answer to questions like the trim of such mathematical systems. All the treatment is developed aiming at the description of different multi--rotor configurations. Then, the linearized equations of motion are derived. The computation of the stability and control derivatives of the linear model is carried out. The study of static and dynamic stability characteristics is, thus, addressed, showing the influence of the various geometric and aerodynamic parameters of the machine and in particular of the rotors. All the theoretic results are finally utilized in two interesting cases. One concerns the design of control systems for attitude stabilization. The linear model permits the tuning of linear controllers gains and the non--linear model allows the numerical testing. The other case is the study of the performances of an innovative configuration of quad--rotor aircraft. With the non--linear model the feasibility of maneuvers impossible for a traditional quad--rotor is assessed. The linear model is applied to the controllability analysis of such an aircraft in case of actuator block.

Nonlinear Approaches to Attitude Control Using Magnetic and Mechanical Actuation

This thesis argues the attitude control problem of nanosatellites, which has been a challenging issue over the years for the scientific community and still constitutes an active area of research. The interest is increasing as more than 70% of future satellite launches are nanosatellites. Therefore, new challenges appear with the miniaturisation of the subsystems and improvements must be reached. In this framework, the aim of this thesis is to develop novel control approaches for three-axis stabilisation of nanosatellites equipped with magnetorquers and reaction wheels, to improve the performance of the existent control strategies and demonstrate the stability of the system. In particular, this thesis is focused on the development of non-linear control techniques to stabilise full-actuated nanosatellites, and in the case of underactuation, in which the number of control variables is less than the degrees of freedom of the system. The main contributions are, for the first control strategy proposed, to demonstrate global asymptotic stability derived from control laws that stabilise the system in a target frame, a fixed direction of the orbit frame. Simulation results show good performance, also in presence of disturbances, and a theoretical selection of the magnetic control gain is given. The second control approach presents instead, a novel stable control methodology for three-axis stabilisation in underactuated conditions. The control scheme consists of the dynamical implementation of an attitude manoeuvre planning by means of a switching control logic. A detailed numerical analysis of the control law gains and the effect on the convergence time, total integrated and maximum torque is presented demonstrating the good performance and robustness also in the presence of disturbances.

Robotic Sensing and Manipulation of Deformable Linear Objects with Learning-based methods

Nowadays robotic applications are widespread and most of the manipulation tasks are efficiently solved. However, Deformable-Objects (DOs) still represent a huge limitation for robots. The main difficulty in DOs manipulation is dealing with the shape and dynamics uncertainties, which prevents the use of model-based approaches (since they are excessively computationally complex) and makes sensory data difficult to interpret. This thesis reports the research activities aimed to address some applications in robotic manipulation and sensing of Deformable-Linear-Objects (DLOs), with particular focus to electric wires. In all the works, a significant effort was made in the study of an effective strategy for analyzing sensory signals with various machine learning algorithms. In the former part of the document, the main focus concerns the wire terminals, i.e. detection, grasping, and insertion. First, a pipeline that integrates vision and tactile sensing is developed, then further improvements are proposed for each module. A novel procedure is proposed to gather and label massive amounts of training images for object detection with minimal human intervention. Together with this strategy, we extend a generic object detector based on Convolutional-Neural-Networks for orientation prediction. The insertion task is also extended by developing a closed-loop control capable to guide the insertion of a longer and curved segment of wire through a hole, where the contact forces are estimated by means of a Recurrent-Neural-Network. In the latter part of the thesis, the interest shifts to the DLO shape. Robotic reshaping of a DLO is addressed by means of a sequence of pick-and-place primitives, while a decision making process driven by visual data learns the optimal grasping locations exploiting Deep Q-learning and finds the best releasing point. The success of the solution leverages on a reliable interpretation of the DLO shape. For this reason, further developments are made on the visual segmentation.

Unified control system for three-phase electric drives operating in magnetic saturation region

The research project aims to study and develop control techniques for a generalized three-phase and multi-phase electric drive able to efficiently manage most of the drive types available for traction application. The generalized approach is expanded to both linear and non- linear machines in magnetic saturation region starting from experimental flux characterization and applying the general inductance definition. The algorithm is able to manage fragmented drives powered from different batteries or energy sources and will be able to ensure operability even in case of faults in parts of the system. The algorithm was tested using model-in-the-loop in software environment and then applied on experimental test benches with collaboration of an external company.

Robust Adaptive Control with Applications to Multi-Agent Systems and Mobile Robotics

This thesis deals with robust adaptive control and its applications, and it is divided into three main parts. The first part is about the design of robust estimation algorithms based on recursive least squares. First, we present an estimator for the frequencies of biased multi-harmonic signals, and then an algorithm for distributed estimation of an unknown parameter over a network of adaptive agents. In the second part of this thesis, we consider a cooperative control problem over uncertain networks of linear systems and Kuramoto systems, in which the agents have to track the reference generated by a leader exosystem. Since the reference signal is not available to each network node, novel distributed observers are designed so as to reconstruct the reference signal locally for each agent, and therefore decentralizing the problem. In the third and final part of this thesis, we consider robust estimation tasks for mobile robotics applications. In particular, we first consider the problem of slip estimation for agricultural tracked vehicles. Then, we consider a search and rescue application in which we need to drive an unmanned aerial vehicle as close as possible to the unknown (and to be estimated) position of a victim, who is buried under the snow after an avalanche event. In this thesis, robustness is intended as an input-to-state stability property of the proposed identifiers (sometimes referred to as adaptive laws), with respect to additive disturbances, and relative to a steady-state trajectory that is associated with a correct estimation of the unknown parameter to be found.