3 resultados para Linear decision rules

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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Computer aided design of Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMICs) depends critically on active device models that are accurate, computationally efficient, and easily extracted from measurements or device simulators. Empirical models of active electron devices, which are based on actual device measurements, do not provide a detailed description of the electron device physics. However they are numerically efficient and quite accurate. These characteristics make them very suitable for MMIC design in the framework of commercially available CAD tools. In the empirical model formulation it is very important to separate linear memory effects (parasitic effects) from the nonlinear effects (intrinsic effects). Thus an empirical active device model is generally described by an extrinsic linear part which accounts for the parasitic passive structures connecting the nonlinear intrinsic electron device to the external world. An important task circuit designers deal with is evaluating the ultimate potential of a device for specific applications. In fact once the technology has been selected, the designer would choose the best device for the particular application and the best device for the different blocks composing the overall MMIC. Thus in order to accurately reproducing the behaviour of different-in-size devices, good scalability properties of the model are necessarily required. Another important aspect of empirical modelling of electron devices is the mathematical (or equivalent circuit) description of the nonlinearities inherently associated with the intrinsic device. Once the model has been defined, the proper measurements for the characterization of the device are performed in order to identify the model. Hence, the correct measurement of the device nonlinear characteristics (in the device characterization phase) and their reconstruction (in the identification or even simulation phase) are two of the more important aspects of empirical modelling. This thesis presents an original contribution to nonlinear electron device empirical modelling treating the issues of model scalability and reconstruction of the device nonlinear characteristics. The scalability of an empirical model strictly depends on the scalability of the linear extrinsic parasitic network, which should possibly maintain the link between technological process parameters and the corresponding device electrical response. Since lumped parasitic networks, together with simple linear scaling rules, cannot provide accurate scalable models, either complicate technology-dependent scaling rules or computationally inefficient distributed models are available in literature. This thesis shows how the above mentioned problems can be avoided through the use of commercially available electromagnetic (EM) simulators. They enable the actual device geometry and material stratification, as well as losses in the dielectrics and electrodes, to be taken into account for any given device structure and size, providing an accurate description of the parasitic effects which occur in the device passive structure. It is shown how the electron device behaviour can be described as an equivalent two-port intrinsic nonlinear block connected to a linear distributed four-port passive parasitic network, which is identified by means of the EM simulation of the device layout, allowing for better frequency extrapolation and scalability properties than conventional empirical models. Concerning the issue of the reconstruction of the nonlinear electron device characteristics, a data approximation algorithm has been developed for the exploitation in the framework of empirical table look-up nonlinear models. Such an approach is based on the strong analogy between timedomain signal reconstruction from a set of samples and the continuous approximation of device nonlinear characteristics on the basis of a finite grid of measurements. According to this criterion, nonlinear empirical device modelling can be carried out by using, in the sampled voltage domain, typical methods of the time-domain sampling theory.

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In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

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Nowadays robotic applications are widespread and most of the manipulation tasks are efficiently solved. However, Deformable-Objects (DOs) still represent a huge limitation for robots. The main difficulty in DOs manipulation is dealing with the shape and dynamics uncertainties, which prevents the use of model-based approaches (since they are excessively computationally complex) and makes sensory data difficult to interpret. This thesis reports the research activities aimed to address some applications in robotic manipulation and sensing of Deformable-Linear-Objects (DLOs), with particular focus to electric wires. In all the works, a significant effort was made in the study of an effective strategy for analyzing sensory signals with various machine learning algorithms. In the former part of the document, the main focus concerns the wire terminals, i.e. detection, grasping, and insertion. First, a pipeline that integrates vision and tactile sensing is developed, then further improvements are proposed for each module. A novel procedure is proposed to gather and label massive amounts of training images for object detection with minimal human intervention. Together with this strategy, we extend a generic object detector based on Convolutional-Neural-Networks for orientation prediction. The insertion task is also extended by developing a closed-loop control capable to guide the insertion of a longer and curved segment of wire through a hole, where the contact forces are estimated by means of a Recurrent-Neural-Network. In the latter part of the thesis, the interest shifts to the DLO shape. Robotic reshaping of a DLO is addressed by means of a sequence of pick-and-place primitives, while a decision making process driven by visual data learns the optimal grasping locations exploiting Deep Q-learning and finds the best releasing point. The success of the solution leverages on a reliable interpretation of the DLO shape. For this reason, further developments are made on the visual segmentation.