Portfolio optimization in the energy market

Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of an energy company. Our fleet of electricity production plants mainly includes gas, hydroelectric and waste-to-energy plants. We also sold contracts for the supply of gas and electricity. For each year we have to plan the trading of the volumes needed by the plants and customers: better to fix the price of these volumes in advance with the so-called forward contracts, instead of waiting for the delivery months, exposing ourselves to price uncertainty. Here’s the thing: trying to keep uncertainty under control in a market that has never shown such extreme scenarios as in recent years: a pandemic, a worsening climate crisis and a war that is affecting economies around the world have made the energy market more volatile than ever. How to make decisions in such uncertain contexts? There is an optimization problem: given a year, we need to choose the optimal planning of volume trading times, to meet the needs of our portfolio at the best prices, taking into account the liquidity constraints given by the market and the risk constraints imposed by the company. Algorithms are needed for the generation of market scenarios over a finite time horizon, that is, a probabilistic distribution that allows a view of all the dates between now and the end of the year of interest. Algorithms are needed to solve the optimization problem: we have proposed more than one and compared them; a very simple one, which avoids considering part of the complexity, moving on to a scenario approach and finally a reinforcement learning approach.

Development and characterization of a distributed measurement system for the evaluation of voltage quality in electric power networks

The research activity carried out during the PhD course in Electrical Engineering belongs to the branch of electric and electronic measurements. The main subject of the present thesis is a distributed measurement system to be installed in Medium Voltage power networks, as well as the method developed to analyze data acquired by the measurement system itself and to monitor power quality. In chapter 2 the increasing interest towards power quality in electrical systems is illustrated, by reporting the international research activity inherent to the problem and the relevant standards and guidelines emitted. The aspect of the quality of voltage provided by utilities and influenced by customers in the various points of a network came out only in recent years, in particular as a consequence of the energy market liberalization. Usually, the concept of quality of the delivered energy has been associated mostly to its continuity. Hence the reliability was the main characteristic to be ensured for power systems. Nowadays, the number and duration of interruptions are the “quality indicators” commonly perceived by most customers; for this reason, a short section is dedicated also to network reliability and its regulation. In this contest it should be noted that although the measurement system developed during the research activity belongs to the field of power quality evaluation systems, the information registered in real time by its remote stations can be used to improve the system reliability too. Given the vast scenario of power quality degrading phenomena that usually can occur in distribution networks, the study has been focused on electromagnetic transients affecting line voltages. The outcome of such a study has been the design and realization of a distributed measurement system which continuously monitor the phase signals in different points of a network, detect the occurrence of transients superposed to the fundamental steady state component and register the time of occurrence of such events. The data set is finally used to locate the source of the transient disturbance propagating along the network lines. Most of the oscillatory transients affecting line voltages are due to faults occurring in any point of the distribution system and have to be seen before protection equipment intervention. An important conclusion is that the method can improve the monitored network reliability, since the knowledge of the location of a fault allows the energy manager to reduce as much as possible both the area of the network to be disconnected for protection purposes and the time spent by technical staff to recover the abnormal condition and/or the damage. The part of the thesis presenting the results of such a study and activity is structured as follows: chapter 3 deals with the propagation of electromagnetic transients in power systems by defining characteristics and causes of the phenomena and briefly reporting the theory and approaches used to study transients propagation. Then the state of the art concerning methods to detect and locate faults in distribution networks is presented. Finally the attention is paid on the particular technique adopted for the same purpose during the thesis, and the methods developed on the basis of such approach. Chapter 4 reports the configuration of the distribution networks on which the fault location method has been applied by means of simulations as well as the results obtained case by case. In this way the performance featured by the location procedure firstly in ideal then in realistic operating conditions are tested. In chapter 5 the measurement system designed to implement the transients detection and fault location method is presented. The hardware belonging to the measurement chain of every acquisition channel in remote stations is described. Then, the global measurement system is characterized by considering the non ideal aspects of each device that can concur to the final combined uncertainty on the estimated position of the fault in the network under test. Finally, such parameter is computed according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements, by means of a numeric procedure. In the last chapter a device is described that has been designed and realized during the PhD activity aiming at substituting the commercial capacitive voltage divider belonging to the conditioning block of the measurement chain. Such a study has been carried out aiming at providing an alternative to the used transducer that could feature equivalent performance and lower cost. In this way, the economical impact of the investment associated to the whole measurement system would be significantly reduced, making the method application much more feasible.

La Previsione dei Consumi Elettrici nel Mercato Energetico Italiano : un nuovo modello empirico con struttura triangolare

L'obiettivo principale della tesi è lo sviluppo di un modello empirico previsivo di breve periodo che sia in grado di offrire previsioni precise ed affidabili dei consumi di energia elettrica su base oraria del mercato italiano. Questo modello riassume le conoscenze acquisite e l'esperienza fatta durante la mia attuale attività lavorativa presso il Romagna Energia S.C.p.A., uno dei maggiori player italiani del mercato energetico. Durante l'ultimo ventennio vi sono stati drastici cambiamenti alla struttura del mercato elettrico in tutto il mondo. Nella maggior parte dei paesi industrializzati il settore dell'energia elettrica ha modificato la sua originale conformazione di monopolio in mercato competitivo liberalizzato, dove i consumatori hanno la libertà di scegliere il proprio fornitore. La modellazione e la previsione della serie storica dei consumi di energia elettrica hanno quindi assunto un ruolo molto importante nel mercato, sia per i policy makers che per gli operatori. Basandosi sulla letteratura già esistente, sfruttando le conoscenze acquisite 'sul campo' ed alcune intuizioni, si è analizzata e sviluppata una struttura modellistica di tipo triangolare, del tutto innovativa in questo ambito di ricerca, suggerita proprio dal meccanismo fisico attraverso il quale l'energia elettrica viene prodotta e consumata nell'arco delle 24 ore. Questo schema triangolare può essere visto come un particolare modello VARMA e possiede una duplice utilità, dal punto di vista interpretativo del fenomeno da una parte, e previsivo dall'altra. Vengono inoltre introdotti nuovi leading indicators legati a fattori meteorologici, con l'intento di migliorare le performance previsive dello stesso. Utilizzando quindi la serie storica dei consumi di energia elettrica italiana, dall'1 Marzo 2010 al 30 Marzo 2012, sono stati stimati i parametri del modello dello schema previsivo proposto e valutati i risultati previsivi per il periodo dall'1 Aprile 2012 al 30 Aprile 2012, confrontandoli con quelli forniti da fonti ufficiali.

Società a partecipazione pubblica nel mercato dell'energia elettrica tra concorrenza e obblighi di servizio pubblico

La disciplina pubblicistica dell’energia elettrica presenta specificità rilevanti rispetto ad altri settori della regolazione economica. Il settore energetico si caratterizza infatti per una complessa regolazione, dovuta sia alle specificità dell’oggetto della disciplina, cioè l’energia elettrica come bene immateriale, sia alla molteplicità degli interessi pubblici coinvolti, che si innestano su fallimenti di mercato (i.e. il sistema a rete non duplicabile), sia agli obiettivi di politica internazionale e di sicurezza nazionale, che intercettano delicate interrelazioni con l’ambiente e il clima, come tutelati nel Green Deal, nelle normative europee e nazionali e negli accordi internazionali sulla decarbonizzazione e sullo sviluppo sostenibile. Inoltre, la filiera elettrica è “verticalmente integrata”, cioè suddivisa in attività diverse, cioè la produzione, il dispacciamento, la trasmissione, la distribuzione, la vendita all’ingrosso e al dettaglio di energia. Queste sono esercitate in regimi di mercato differenti: monopolio naturale (dovuto al carattere sub-additivo dei costi) per il dispacciamento, la trasmissione e la distribuzione di energia; libera concorrenza per la produzione e la vendita. L’esigenza di assicurare la concorrenza nel mercato energetico si contempera con la necessità di rispettare gli obblighi di servizio pubblico, in un delicato bilanciamento tra esigenze contrapposte. La Direttiva U.E. del 13 luglio 2009 n. 2009/72/Cee, all’art. 3, qualifica infatti la fornitura di energia elettrica come un servizio universale, attribuendo agli utenti il diritto di ricevere la fornitura e di mantenere prezzi ragionevoli, facilmente e chiaramente comparabili, trasparenti e non discriminatori.

PCM-based battery thermal management systems, energy saving materials and LCA strategy for automotive

This PhD work arises from the necessity to give a contribution to the energy saving field, regarding automotive applications. The aim was to produce a multidisciplinary work to show how much important is to consider different aspects of an electric car realization: from innovative materials to cutting-edge battery thermal management systems (BTMSs), also dealing with the life cycle assessment (LCA) of the battery packs (BPs). Regarding the materials, it has been chosen to focus on carbon fiber composites as their use allows realizing light products with great mechanical properties. Processes and methods to produce carbon fiber goods have been analysed with a special attention on the university solar car Emilia 4. The work proceeds dealing with the common BTMSs on the market (air-cooled, cooling plates, heat pipes) and then it deepens some of the most innovative systems such as the PCM-based BTMSs after a previous experimental campaign to characterize the PCMs. After that, a complex experimental campaign regarding the PCM-based BTMSs has been carried on, considering both uninsulated and insulated systems. About the first category the tested systems have been pure PCM-based and copper-foam-loaded-PCM-based BTMSs; the insulated tested systems have been pure PCM-based and copper-foam-loaded-PCM-based BTMSs and both of these systems equipped with a liquid cooling circuit. The choice of lighter building materials and the optimization of the BTMS are strategies which helps in reducing the energy consumption, considering both the energy required by the car to move and the BP state of health (SOH). Focusing on this last factor, a clear explanation regarding the importance of taking care about the SOH is given by the analysis of a BP production energy consumption. This is why a final dissertation about the life cycle assessment (LCA) of a BP unit has been presented in this thesis.

Towards cheaper, safer and low environmental impact materials for energy storage devices: natural resources-derived carbon based electrodes and aqueous electrolytes for supercapacitors

The growing market of electrical cars, portable electronics, photovoltaic systems..etc. requires the development of efficient, low-cost, and low environmental impact energy storage devices (ESDs) including batteries and supercapacitors.. Due to their extended charge-discharge cycle, high specific capacitance, and power capabilities supercapacitors are considered among the most attractive ESDs. Over the last decade, research and development in supercapacitor technology have accelerated: thousands of articles have been published in the literature describing the electrochemical properties of the electrode materials and electrolyte in addition to separators and current collectors. Carbon-based supercapacitor electrodes materials have gained increasing attention due to their high specific surface area, good electrical conductivity, and excellent stability in harsh environments, as well as other characteristics. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in activated carbon derived from low-cost abundant sources such as biomass for supercapacitor electrode materials. Also, particular attention was given to a major challenging issue concerning the substitution of organic solutions currently used as electrolytes due to their highest electrochemical stability window even though their high cost, toxicity, and flammability. In this regard, the main objective of this thesis is to investigate the performances of supercapacitors using low cost abundant safe, and low environmental impact materials for electrodes and electrolytes. Several prototypes were constructed and tested using natural resources through optimization of the preparation of appropriate carbon electrodes using agriculture by-products waste or coal (i.e. Argan shell or Anthracite from Jerrada). Such electrodes were tested using several electrolyte formulations (aqueous and water in salt electrolytes) beneficing their non-flammability, lower cost, and environmental impact; the characteristics that provide a promising opportunity to design safer, inexpensive, and environmentally friendly devices compared to organic electrolytes.