Development of quantitative methods for sustainability assessment in process industry

The increasing aversion to technological risks of the society requires the development of inherently safer and environmentally friendlier processes, besides assuring the economic competitiveness of the industrial activities. The different forms of impact (e.g. environmental, economic and societal) are frequently characterized by conflicting reduction strategies and must be holistically taken into account in order to identify the optimal solutions in process design. Though the literature reports an extensive discussion of strategies and specific principles, quantitative assessment tools are required to identify the marginal improvements in alternative design options, to allow the trade-off among contradictory aspects and to prevent the “risk shift”. In the present work a set of integrated quantitative tools for design assessment (i.e. design support system) was developed. The tools were specifically dedicated to the implementation of sustainability and inherent safety in process and plant design activities, with respect to chemical and industrial processes in which substances dangerous for humans and environment are used or stored. The tools were mainly devoted to the application in the stages of “conceptual” and “basic design”, when the project is still open to changes (due to the large number of degrees of freedom) which may comprise of strategies to improve sustainability and inherent safety. The set of developed tools includes different phases of the design activities, all through the lifecycle of a project (inventories, process flow diagrams, preliminary plant lay-out plans). The development of such tools gives a substantial contribution to fill the present gap in the availability of sound supports for implementing safety and sustainability in early phases of process design. The proposed decision support system was based on the development of a set of leading key performance indicators (KPIs), which ensure the assessment of economic, societal and environmental impacts of a process (i.e. sustainability profile). The KPIs were based on impact models (also complex), but are easy and swift in the practical application. Their full evaluation is possible also starting from the limited data available during early process design. Innovative reference criteria were developed to compare and aggregate the KPIs on the basis of the actual sitespecific impact burden and the sustainability policy. Particular attention was devoted to the development of reliable criteria and tools for the assessment of inherent safety in different stages of the project lifecycle. The assessment follows an innovative approach in the analysis of inherent safety, based on both the calculation of the expected consequences of potential accidents and the evaluation of the hazards related to equipment. The methodology overrides several problems present in the previous methods proposed for quantitative inherent safety assessment (use of arbitrary indexes, subjective judgement, build-in assumptions, etc.). A specific procedure was defined for the assessment of the hazards related to the formations of undesired substances in chemical systems undergoing “out of control” conditions. In the assessment of layout plans, “ad hoc” tools were developed to account for the hazard of domino escalations and the safety economics. The effectiveness and value of the tools were demonstrated by the application to a large number of case studies concerning different kinds of design activities (choice of materials, design of the process, of the plant, of the layout) and different types of processes/plants (chemical industry, storage facilities, waste disposal). An experimental survey (analysis of the thermal stability of isomers of nitrobenzaldehyde) provided the input data necessary to demonstrate the method for inherent safety assessment of materials.

Essays on Bank Risk

This PhD Thesis is composed of three chapters, each discussing a specific type of risk that banks face. The first chapter talks about Systemic Risk and how banks get exposed to it through the Interbank Funding Market. Exposures in the said market have Systemic Risk implications because the market creates linkages, where the failure of one party can affect the others in the market. By showing that CDS Spreads, as bank risk indicators, are positively related to their Net Interbank Funding Market Exposures, this chapter establishes the above Systemic Risk Implications of Interbank Funding. Meanwhile, the second chapter discusses how banks may handle Illiquidity Risk, defined as the possibility of having sudden funding needs. Illiquidity Risk is embodied in this chapter through Loan Commitments as they oblige banks to lend to its clients, up to a certain amount of funds at any time. This chapter points out that using Securitization as funding facility, could allow the banks to manage this Illiquidity Risk. To make this case, this chapter demonstrates empirically that banks having an increase in Loan Commitments, may experience an increase in risk profile but such can be offset by an accompanying increase in Securitization Activity. Lastly, the third chapter focuses on how banks manage Credit Risk also through Securitization. Securitization has a Credit Risk management property by allowing the offloading of risk. This chapter investigates how banks use such property by looking at the effect of securitization on the banks’ loan portfolios and overall risk and returns. The findings are that securitization is positively related to loan portfolio size and the portfolio share of risky loans, which translates to higher risk and returns. Thus, this chapter points out that Credit Risk management through Securitization may be have been done towards higher risk taking for high returns.

Quantificazione del rischio occupazionale: Indicatori, indici e metodologia fuzzy

La tesi affronta il concetto di esposizione al rischio occupazionale e il suo scopo è quello di indagare l’ambiente di lavoro e il comportamento dei lavoratori, con l'obiettivo di ridurre il tasso di incidenza degli infortuni sul lavoro ed eseguire la riduzione dei rischi. In primo luogo, è proposta una nuova metodologia denominata MIMOSA (Methodology for the Implementation and Monitoring of Occupational SAfety), che quantifica il livello di "salute e sicurezza" di una qualsiasi impresa. Al fine di raggiungere l’obiettivo si è reso necessario un approccio multidisciplinare in cui concetti d’ingegneria e di psicologia sono stati combinati per sviluppare una metodologia di previsione degli incidenti e di miglioramento della sicurezza sul lavoro. I risultati della sperimentazione di MIMOSA hanno spinto all'uso della Logica Fuzzy nel settore della sicurezza occupazionale per migliorare la metodologia stessa e per superare i problemi riscontrati nell’incertezza della raccolta dei dati. La letteratura mostra che i fattori umani, la percezione del rischio e il comportamento dei lavoratori in relazione al rischio percepito, hanno un ruolo molto importante nella comparsa degli incidenti. Questa considerazione ha portato ad un nuovo approccio e ad una seconda metodologia che consiste nella prevenzione di incidenti, non solo sulla base dell'analisi delle loro dinamiche passate. Infatti la metodologia considera la valutazione di un indice basato sui comportamenti proattivi dei lavoratori e sui danni potenziali degli eventi incidentali evitati. L'innovazione consiste nell'applicazione della Logica Fuzzy per tener conto dell’"indeterminatezza" del comportamento umano e del suo linguaggio naturale. In particolare l’applicazione è incentrata sulla proattività dei lavoratori e si prefigge di impedire l'evento "infortunio", grazie alla generazione di una sorta d’indicatore di anticipo. Questa procedura è stata testata su un’azienda petrolchimica italiana.

Sviluppo di metodologie innovative di supporto decisionale alla progettazione basate su indicatori di prestazione

Il progetto di ricerca è finalizzato allo sviluppo di una metodologia innovativa di supporto decisionale nel processo di selezione tra alternative progettuali, basata su indicatori di prestazione. In particolare il lavoro si è focalizzato sulla definizione d’indicatori atti a supportare la decisione negli interventi di sbottigliamento di un impianto di processo. Sono stati sviluppati due indicatori, “bottleneck indicators”, che permettono di valutare la reale necessità dello sbottigliamento, individuando le cause che impediscono la produzione e lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature. Questi sono stati validati attraverso l’applicazione all’analisi di un intervento su un impianto esistente e verificando che lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature fosse correttamente individuato. Definita la necessità dell’intervento di sbottigliamento, è stato affrontato il problema della selezione tra alternative di processo possibili per realizzarlo. È stato applicato alla scelta un metodo basato su indicatori di sostenibilità che consente di confrontare le alternative considerando non solo il ritorno economico degli investimenti ma anche gli impatti su ambiente e sicurezza, e che è stato ulteriormente sviluppato in questa tesi. Sono stati definiti due indicatori, “area hazard indicators”, relativi alle emissioni fuggitive, per integrare questi aspetti nell’analisi della sostenibilità delle alternative. Per migliorare l’accuratezza nella quantificazione degli impatti è stato sviluppato un nuovo modello previsionale atto alla stima delle emissioni fuggitive di un impianto, basato unicamente sui dati disponibili in fase progettuale, che tiene conto delle tipologie di sorgenti emettitrici, dei loro meccanismi di perdita e della manutenzione. Validato mediante il confronto con dati sperimentali di un impianto produttivo, si è dimostrato che tale metodo è indispensabile per un corretto confronto delle alternative poiché i modelli esistenti sovrastimano eccessivamente le emissioni reali. Infine applicando gli indicatori ad un impianto esistente si è dimostrato che sono fondamentali per semplificare il processo decisionale, fornendo chiare e precise indicazioni impiegando un numero limitato di informazioni per ricavarle.

Innovation in conceptual design of chemical processes

Nowadays, the chemical industry has reached significant goals to produce essential components for human being. The growing competitiveness of the market caused an important acceleration in R&D activities, introducing new opportunities and procedures for the definition of process improvement and optimization. In this dynamicity, sustainability is becoming one of the key aspects for the technological progress encompassing economic, environmental protection and safety aspects. With respect to the conceptual definition of sustainability, literature reports an extensive discussion of the strategies, as well as sets of specific principles and guidelines. However, literature procedures are not completely suitable and applicable to process design activities. Therefore, the development and introduction of sustainability-oriented methodologies is a necessary step to enhance process and plant design. The definition of key drivers as support system is a focal point for early process design decisions or implementation of process modifications. In this context, three different methodologies are developed to support design activities providing criteria and guidelines in a sustainable perspective. In this framework, a set of key Performance Indicators is selected and adopted to characterize the environmental, safety, economic and energetic aspects of a reference process. The methodologies are based on heat and material balances and the level of detailed for input data are compatible with available information of the specific application. Multiple case-studies are defined to prove the effectiveness of the methodologies. The principal application is the polyolefin productive lifecycle chain with particular focus on polymerization technologies. In this context, different design phases are investigated spanning from early process feasibility study to operative and improvements assessment. This flexibility allows to apply the methodologies at any level of design, providing supporting guidelines for design activities, compare alternative solutions, monitor operating process and identify potential for improvements.

Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Sustainability indicators for environmental management and decision making

The general objective of this research is to explore theories and methodologies of sustainability indicators, environmental management and decision making disciplines with the operational purpose of producing scientific, robust and relevant information for supporting system understanding and decision making in real case studies. Several tools have been applied in order to increase the understanding of socio-ecological systems as well as providing relevant information on the choice between alternatives. These tools have always been applied having in mind the complexity of the issues and the uncertainty tied to the partial knowledge of the systems under study. Two case studies with specific application to performances measurement (environmental performances in the case of the K8 approach and sustainable development performances in the case of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy) and a case study about the selection of sustainable development indicators amongst Municipalities in Scotland, are discussed in the first part of the work. In the second part of the work, the common denominator among subjects consists in the application of spatial indices and indicators to address operational problems in land use management within the territory of the Ravenna province (Italy). The main conclusion of the thesis is that a ‘perfect’ methodological approach which always produces the best results in assessing sustainability performances does not exist. Rather, there is a pool of correct approaches answering different evaluation questions, to be used when methodologies fit the purpose of the analysis. For this reason, methodological limits and conceptual assumptions as well as consistency and transparency of the assessment, become the key factors for assessing the quality of the analysis.

Agrofood chain analysis: production, commercialisation and consumption of healthy food for population at risk of poverty in Italy

Italy registers a fast increase of low income population. Academics and policy makers consider income inequalities as a key determinant for low or inadequate healthy food consumption. Thus the objective is to understand how to overcome the agrofood chain barriers towards healthy food production, commercialisation and consumption for population at risk of poverty (ROP) in Italy. The study adopts a market oriented food chain approach, focusing the research ambit on ROP consumers, processing industries and retailers. The empirical investigation adopts a qualitative methodology with an explorative approach. The actors are investigated through 4 focus groups for consumers and carrying out 27 face to face semi-structured interviews for industries and retailers’ representatives. The results achieved provide the perceptions of each actor integrated into an overall chain approach. The analysis shows that all agrofood actors lack of an adequate level of knowledge towards healthy food definition. Food industries and retailers also show poor awareness about ROP consumers’ segment. In addition they perceive that the high costs for producing healthy food conflict with the low economic performances expected from ROP consumers’ segment. These aspects induce a scarce interest in investing on commercialisation strategies for healthy food for ROP consumers. Further ROP consumers show other notable barriers to adopt healthy diets caused, among others, by a personal strong negative attitude and lack of motivation. The personal barriers are also negatively influenced by several external socio-economic factors. The solutions to overcome the barriers shall rely on the improvement of the agrofood chain internal relations to identify successful strategies for increasing interest on low cost healthy food. In particular the focus should be on improved collaboration on innovation adoption and marketing strategies, considering ROP consumers’ preferences and needs. An external political intervention is instead necessary to fill the knowledge and regulations’ gaps on healthy food issues.

Key issues in diagnosing and treating acute aortic syndromes: results from the metropolitan area of Bologna network

Background: Survival of patients with Acute Aortic Syndrome (AAS) may relate to the speed of diagnosis. Diagnostic delay is exacerbated by non classical presentations such as myocardial ischemia or acute heart failure (AHF). However little is known about clinical implications and pathophysiological mechanisms of Troponin T elevation and AHF in AAS. Methods and Results: Data were collected from a prospective metropolitan AAS registry (398 patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2013). Troponin T values (either standard or high sensitivity assay, HS) were available in 248 patients (60%) of the registry population; the overall frequency of troponin positivity was 28% (ranging from 16% to 54%, using standard or HS assay respectively, p = 0.001). Troponin positivity was associated with a twofold increased risk of long in-hospital diagnostic time (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.05-3.52, p = 0.03), but not with in-hospital mortality. The combination of positive troponin and ACS-like ECG abnormalities resulted in a significantly increased risk of inappropriate therapy due to a misdiagnosis of ACS (OR 2.48, 95% CI 1.12-5.54, p = 0.02). Patients with AHF were identified by the presence of dyspnea as presentation symptom or radiological signs of pulmonary congestion or cardiogenic shock. The overall frequency of AHF was 28 % (32% type A vs. 20% type B AAS, p = 0.01). AHF was due to a variety of pathophysiological mechanisms including cardiac tamponade (26%), aortic regurgitation (25%), myocardial ischemia (17%), hypertensive crisis (10%). AHF was associated with increased surgical delay and with increased risk of in-hospital death (adjusted OR 1.97 95% CI1.13-3.37,p=0.01). Conclusions: Troponin positivity (particularly HS) was a frequent finding in AAS. Abnormal troponin values were strongly associated with ACS-like ECG findings, in-hospital diagnostic delay, and inappropriate therapy. AHF was associated with increased surgical delay and was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

The use of satellite remote sensing for flood risk management

Over the last decades the impact of natural disasters to the global environment is becoming more and more severe. The number of disasters has dramatically increased, as well as the cost to the global economy and the number of people affected. Among the natural disaster, flood catastrophes are considered to be the most costly, devastating, broad extent and frequent, because of the tremendous fatalities, injuries, property damage, economic and social disruption they cause to the humankind. In the last thirty years, the World has suffered from severe flooding and the huge impact of floods has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructures, disruption of economic activity and the loss of property for worth billions of dollars. In this context, satellite remote sensing, along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), has become a key tool in flood risk management analysis. Remote sensing for supporting various aspects of flood risk management was investigated in the present thesis. In particular, the research focused on the use of satellite images for flood mapping and monitoring, damage assessment and risk assessment. The contribution of satellite remote sensing for the delineation of flood prone zones, the identification of damaged areas and the development of hazard maps was explored referring to selected cases of study.

Understanding, defining and assessing food systems’ social and economic sustainability indicators: implementation of mixed methodologies for policy insights

Sustainability encompasses the presence of three dimensions that must coexist simultaneously, namely the environmental, social, and economic ones. The economic and social dimensions are gaining the spotlight in recent years, especially within food systems. To assess social and economic impacts, indicators and tools play a fundamental role in contributing to the achievements of sustainability targets, although few of them have deepen the focus on social and economic impacts. Moreover, in a framework of citizen science and bottom-up approach for improving food systems, citizen play a key role in defying their priorities in terms of social and economic interventions. This research expands the knowledge of social and economic sustainability indicators within the food systems for robust policy insights and interventions. This work accomplishes the following objectives: 1) to define social and economic indicators within the supply chain with a stakeholder perspective, 2) to test social and economic sustainability indicators for future food systems engaging young generations. The first objective was accomplished through the development of a systematic literature review of 34 social sustainability tools, based on five food supply chain stages, namely production, processing, wholesale, retail, and consumer considering farmers, workers, consumers, and society as stakeholders. The second objective was achieved by defining and testing new food systems social and economic sustainability indicators through youth engagement for informed and robust policy insights, to provide policymakers suggestions that would incorporate young generations ones. Future food systems scenarios were evaluated by youth through focus groups, whose results were analyzed through NVivo and then through a survey with a wider platform. Conclusion addressed the main areas of policy interventions in terms of social and economic aspects of sustainable food systems youth pointed out as in need of interventions, spanning from food labelling reporting sustainable origins to better access to online food services.

Harnessing the cellular and molecular complexity of high-risk neuroblastoma to investigate novel potential treatment approaches

Neuroblastoma (NB) is the most common type of tumor in infants and the third most common cancer in children. Current clinical practices employ a variety of strategies for NB treatment, ranging from standard chemotherapy to immunotherapy. Due to a lack of knowledge about the molecular mechanisms underlying the disease's onset, aggressive phenotype, and therapeutic resistance, these approaches are ineffective in the majority of instances. MYCN amplification is one of the most well-known genetic alterations associated with high risk in NB. The following work is divided into three sections and aims to provide new insights into the biology of NB and hypothetical new treatment strategies. First, we identified RUNX1T1 as a key gene involved in MYCN-driven NB onset in a transgenic mouse model. Our results suggested that that RUNX1T1 may recruit the Co-REST complex on target genes that regulate the differentiation of NB cells and that the interaction with RCOR3 is essential. Second, we provided insights into the role of MYCN in dysregulating the CDK/RB/E2F pathway controlling the G1/S transition of the cell cycle. We found that RB is dispensable in regulating MYCN amplified NB's cell cycle, providing the rationale for using cyclin/CDK complexes inhibitors in NBs carrying MYCN amplification and relatively high levels of RB1 expression. Third, we generated an M13 bacteriophage platform to target GD2-expressing cells in NB. Here, we generated a recombinant M13 phage capable of binding GD2-expressing cells selectively (M13GD2). Our results showed that M13GD2 chemically conjugated with the photosensitizer ECB04 preserves the retargeting capability, inducing cell death even at picomolar concentrations upon light irradiation. These results provided proof of concept for M13 phage employment in targeted photodynamic therapy for NB, an exciting strategy to overcome resistance to classical immunotherapy.

Youth psychosocial adjustment in the context of parental illness: risk and protective factors

Young carers might experience both psychological distress and positive changes from living with their chronically ill parent. However, little is known about why some young carers do well with their situation and experience positive outcomes, whereas others do not. In this regard, this dissertation aims to investigate how parental chronic illness affects young carers’ psychosocial adjustment through risk (i.e., unmet needs) and protective factors (i.e., benefit finding, emotion regulation). This main goal has been addressed by conducting three studies presented in Chapters 2–4. Chapter 2 has examined the mediating role of unmet needs on the relationship between illness unpredictability and youth psychosocial adjustment (i.e., quality of life and internalizing problems). In this regard, it has been found that levels of unmet needs significantly mediated the relationship between illness unpredictability and offspring health-related quality of life. In the systematic review with meta-analysis presented within Chapter 3, it has been sought to investigate the mediating role of the protective factors (i.e., benefit finding and emotion regulation) in the relationship between caregiving components and youth psychosocial adjustment in young carers. This study has shown the significant associations between caregiving components and psychosocial adjustment in young carers not only directly, but also indirectly through protective factors. Finally, to expand on previous findings, a qualitative study in Chapter 4 has examined the unique experiences of young carers, as well as the effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic. This study has yielded a deeper understanding of how protective factors may be operated during young carers’ lived experiences before and during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Overall, this dissertation has shed light on the pivotal role played by risk and protective factors in caregiving components that serve as key determinants that can enhance positive psychosocial outcomes as well as concurrently mitigate adverse psychosocial consequences among young carers.

Distributed argumentation technology: advancing risk analysis and regulatory compliance of distributed ledger technologies for transaction and management of securities

Distributed argumentation technology is a computational approach incorporating argumentation reasoning mechanisms within multi-agent systems. For the formal foundations of distributed argumentation technology, in this thesis we conduct a principle-based analysis of structured argumentation as well as abstract multi-agent and abstract bipolar argumentation. The results of the principle-based approach of these theories provide an overview and guideline for further applications of the theories. Moreover, in this thesis we explore distributed argumentation technology using distributed ledgers. We envision an Intelligent Human-input-based Blockchain Oracle (IHiBO), an artificial intelligence tool for storing argumentation reasoning. We propose a decentralized and secure architecture for conducting decision-making, addressing key concerns of trust, transparency, and immutability. We model fund management with agent argumentation in IHiBO and analyze its compliance with European fund management legal frameworks. We illustrate how bipolar argumentation balances pros and cons in legal reasoning in a legal divorce case, and how the strength of arguments in natural language can be represented in structured arguments. Finally, we discuss how distributed argumentation technology can be used to advance risk management, regulatory compliance of distributed ledgers for financial securities, and dialogue techniques.