Spectral-Element and Adjoint 3D Full-Wave Tomography for the Lithosphere of Central Italy

The primary objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the 3D velocity structure of the lithosphere in central Italy. To this end, I adopted the Spectral-Element Method to perform accurate numerical simulations of the complex wavefields generated by the 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila event and by its foreshocks and aftershocks together with some additional events within our target region. For the mainshock, the source was represented by a finite fault and different models for central Italy, both 1D and 3D, were tested. Surface topography, attenuation and Moho discontinuity were also accounted for. Three-component synthetic waveforms were compared to the corresponding recorded data. The results of these analyses show that 3D models, including all the known structural heterogeneities in the region, are essential to accurately reproduce waveform propagation. They allow to capture features of the seismograms, mainly related to topography or to low wavespeed areas, and, combined with a finite fault model, result into a favorable match between data and synthetics for frequencies up to ~0.5 Hz. We also obtained peak ground velocity maps, that provide valuable information for seismic hazard assessment. The remaining differences between data and synthetics led us to take advantage of SEM combined with an adjoint method to iteratively improve the available 3D structure model for central Italy. A total of 63 events and 52 stations in the region were considered. We performed five iterations of the tomographic inversion, by calculating the misfit function gradient - necessary for the model update - from adjoint sensitivity kernels, constructed using only two simulations for each event. Our last updated model features a reduced traveltime misfit function and improved agreement between data and synthetics, although further iterations, as well as refined source solutions, are necessary to obtain a new reference 3D model for central Italy tomography.

Land use management in mountainous areas: combining ground-based and EO (Earth Observation) data to investigate the shallow landsliding susceptibility in the Duron valley (Trento, Italy).

Throughout the alpine domain, shallow landslides represent a serious geologic hazard, often causing severe damages to infrastructures, private properties, natural resources and in the most catastrophic events, threatening human lives. Landslides are a major factor of landscape evolution in mountainous and hilly regions and represent a critical issue for mountainous land management, since they cause loss of pastoral lands. In several alpine contexts, shallow landsliding distribution is strictly connected to the presence and condition of vegetation on the slopes. With the aid of high-resolution satellite images, it's possible to divide automatically the mountainous territory in land cover classes, which contribute with different magnitude to the stability of the slopes. The aim of this research is to combine EO (Earth Observation) land cover maps with ground-based measurements of the land cover properties. In order to achieve this goal, a new procedure has been developed to automatically detect grass mantle degradation patterns from satellite images. Moreover, innovative surveying techniques and instruments are tested to measure in situ the shear strength of grass mantle and the geomechanical and geotechnical properties of these alpine soils. Shallow landsliding distribution is assessed with the aid of physically based models, which use the EO-based map to distribute the resistance parameters across the landscape.

Landscape ecology and genetics of the wolf in Italy

This PhD Thesis includes five main parts on diverse topics. The first two parts deal with the trophic ecology of wolves in Italy consequently to a recent increase of wild ungulates abundance. Data on wolf diet across time highlighted how wild ungulates are important food resource for wolves in Italy. Increasing wolf population, increasing numbers of wild ungulates and decreasing livestock consume are mitigating wolf-man conflicts in Italy in the near future. In the third part, non-invasive genetic sampling techniques were used to obtain genotypes and genders of about 400 wolves. Thus, wolf packs were genetically reconstructed using diverse population genetic and parentage software. Combining the results on pack structure and genetic relatedness with sampling locations, home ranges of wolf packs and dispersal patterns were identified. These results, particularly important for the conservation management of wolves in Italy, illustrated detailed information that can be retrieved from genetic identification of individuals. In the fourth part, wolf locations were combined with environmental information obtained as GIS-layers. Modern species distribution models (niche models) were applied to infer potential wolf distribution and predation risk. From the resulting distribution maps, information pastures with the highest risk of depredation were derived. This is particularly relevant as it allows identifying those areas under danger of carnivore attack on livestock. Finally, in the fifth part, habitat suitability models were combined with landscape genetic analysis. On one side landscape genetic analyses on the Italian wolves provided new information on the dynamics and connectivity of the population and, on the other side, a profound analysis of the effects that habitat suitability methods had on the parameterization of landscape genetic analyses was carried out to contributed significantly to landscape genetic theory.

Quality assessment of a landslide inventory map and its application to land‐use planning. A case study in the Northern Apennines (Emilia‐Romagna region, Italy)

Landslide hazard and risk are growing as a consequence of climate change and demographic pressure. Land‐use planning represents a powerful tool to manage this socio‐economic problem and build sustainable and landslide resilient communities. Landslide inventory maps are a cornerstone of land‐use planning and, consequently, their quality assessment represents a burning issue. This work aimed to define the quality parameters of a landslide inventory and assess its spatial and temporal accuracy with regard to its possible applications to land‐use planning. In this sense, I proceeded according to a two‐steps approach. An overall assessment of the accuracy of data geographic positioning was performed on four case study sites located in the Italian Northern Apennines. The quantification of the overall spatial and temporal accuracy, instead, focused on the Dorgola Valley (Province of Reggio Emilia). The assessment of spatial accuracy involved a comparison between remotely sensed and field survey data, as well as an innovative fuzzylike analysis of a multi‐temporal landslide inventory map. Conversely, long‐ and short‐term landslide temporal persistence was appraised over a period of 60 years with the aid of 18 remotely sensed image sets. These results were eventually compared with the current Territorial Plan for Provincial Coordination (PTCP) of the Province of Reggio Emilia. The outcome of this work suggested that geomorphologically detected and mapped landslides are a significant approximation of a more complex reality. In order to convey to the end‐users this intrinsic uncertainty, a new form of cartographic representation is needed. In this sense, a fuzzy raster landslide map may be an option. With regard to land‐use planning, landslide inventory maps, if appropriately updated, confirmed to be essential decision‐support tools. This research, however, proved that their spatial and temporal uncertainty discourages any direct use as zoning maps, especially when zoning itself is associated to statutory or advisory regulations.

Liver transplantation for transthyretin amyloidosis: experience of a single center in Italy

Liver transplantation is the only definitive treatment for transthyretin amyloidosis, with an excellent 5-year survival in endemic countries where the Met30 mutation is predominant. We report our experience of liver transplantation for transthyretin amyloidosis. We reviewed the clinical records of 17 transplanted patients (11 males, 6 females; age at liver transplant: 45.7±11.7 years). We had a wide spectrum of non-Met30 mutations (52.9%), with a predominance of Gln89 (23.5%). Five-year survival after transplantation was 43.8%; at multivariate analysis, both non-Met30 mutations (HR 17.3, 95% CI 1.03-291.7) and modified BMI (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.29-0.87) showed significant and independent prognostic roles (P=0.048 and P=0.015, respectively). Five out of the 9 non-Met30 carriers received combined heart transplantation because of severe cardiomyopathy; they showed a trend towards a better prognosis vs. the 4 patients who did not receive combined heart transplantation (although not statistically significant; P=0.095). At follow-up, no significant improvement of transthyretin amyloidosis manifestations was observed. The results of liver transplantation for transthyretin amyloidosis in our population are poorer than those reported in the literature probably because of the high prevalence of non-Met30 mutations.

Essays in Applied Health Economics: Evidence on Health and Health Care in Italy and UK

This thesis is the result of my experience as a PhD student taking part in the Joint Doctoral Programme at the University of York and the University of Bologna. In my thesis I deal with topics that are of particular interest in Italy and in Great Britain. Chapter 2 focuses on the empirical test of the existence of the relationship between technological profiles and market structure claimed by Sutton’s theory (1991, 1998) in the specific economic framework of hospital care services provided by the Italian National Health Service (NHS). In order to test the empirical predictions by Sutton, we identify the relevant markets for hospital care services in Italy in terms of both product and geographic dimensions. In particular, the Elzinga and Hogarty (1978) approach has been applied to data on patients’ flows across Italian Provinces in order to derive the geographic dimension of each market. Our results provide evidence in favour of the empirical predictions of Sutton. Chapter 3 deals with the patient mobility in the Italian NHS. To analyse the determinants of patient mobility across Local Health Authorities, we estimate gravity equations in multiplicative form using a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method, as proposed by Santos-Silva and Tenreyro (2006). In particular, we focus on the scale effect played by the size of the pool of enrolees. In most of the cases our results are consistent with the predictions of the gravity model. Chapter 4 considers the effects of contractual and working conditions on selfassessed health and psychological well-being (derived from the General Health Questionnaire) using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We consider two branches of the literature. One suggests that “atypical” contractual conditions have a significant impact on health while the other suggests that health is damaged by adverse working conditions. The main objective of our paper is to combine the two branches of the literature to assess the distinct effects of contractual and working conditions on health. The results suggest that both sets of conditions have some influence on health and psychological well-being of employees.

Perceptual maps analysis for organic food consumers in China: a study on Shanghai consumers

Although in Europe and in the USA many studies focus on organic, little is known on the topic in China. This research provides an insight on Shanghai consumers’ perception of organic, aiming at understanding and representing in graphic form the network of mental associations that stems from the organic concept. To acquire, process and aggregate the individual networks it was used the “Brand concept mapping” methodology (Roedder et al., 2006), while the data analysis was carried out also using analytic procedures. The results achieved suggest that organic food is perceived as healthy, safe and costly. Although these attributes are pretty much consistent with the European perception, some relevant differences emerged. First, organic is not necessarily synonymous with natural product in China, also due to a poor translation of the term in the Chinese language that conveys the idea of a manufactured product. Secondly, the organic label has to deal with the competition with the green food label in terms of image and positioning on the market, since they are easily associated and often confused. “Environmental protection” also emerged as relevant association, while the ethical and social values were not mentioned. In conclusion, health care and security concerns are the factors that influence most the food consumption in China (many people are so concerned about food safety that they found it difficult to shop), and the associations “Safe”, “Pure and natural”, “without chemicals” and “healthy” have been identified as the best candidates for leveraging a sound image of organic food .

Farm tourism: a cross-country empirical study in Germany and Italy

PROBLEM In the last few years farm tourism or agritourism as it is also referred to has enjoyed increasing success because of its generally acknowledged role as a promoter of economic and social development of rural areas. As a consequence, a plethora of studies have been dedicated to this tourist sector, focusing on a variety of issues. Nevertheless, despite the difficulties of many farmers to orient their business towards potential customers, the contribution of the marketing literature has been moderate. PURPOSE This dissertation builds upon studies which advocate the necessity of farm tourism to innovate itself according to the increasingly demanding needs of customers. Henceforth, the purpose of this dissertation is to critically evaluate the level of professionalism reached in the farm tourism market within a marketing approach. METHODOLOGY This dissertation is a cross-country perspective incorporating the marketing of farm tourism studied in Germany and Italy. Hence, the marketing channels of this tourist sector are examined both from the supply and the demand side by means of five exploratory studies. The data collection has been conducted in the timeframe of 2006 to 2009 in manifold ways (online survey, catalogues of industry associations, face-to-face interviews, etc.) according to the purpose of the research of each study project. The data have been analyzed using multivariate statistical analysis. FINDINGS A comprehensive literature review provides the state of the art of the main differences and similarities of farm tourism in the two countries of study. The main findings contained in the empirical chapters provide insights on many aspects of agritourism including how the expectations of farm operators and customers differ, which development scenarios of farm tourism are more likely to meet individuals’ needs, how new technologies can impact the demand for farm tourism, etc. ORIGINALITY/VALUE The value of this study is in the investigation of the process by which farmers’ participation in the development of this sector intersects with consumer consumption patterns. Focusing on this process should allow farm operators and others including related businesses to more efficiently allocate resources.

Coastal flood vulnerability assessment with geomatic methods: Test sites of western Thailand, Sydney (Australia) and aeolian islands (south tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

The work undertaken in this PhD thesis is aimed at the development and testing of an innovative methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine catastrophic inundation (tsunami). Different approaches are used at different spatial scales and are applied to three different study areas: 1. The entire western coast of Thailand 2. Two selected coastal suburbs of Sydney – Australia 3. The Aeolian Islands, in the South Tyrrhenian Sea – Italy I have discussed each of these cases study in at least one scientific paper: one paper about the Thailand case study (Dall’Osso et al., in review-b), three papers about the Sydney applications (Dall’Osso et al., 2009a; Dall’Osso et al., 2009b; Dall’Osso and Dominey-Howes, in review) and one last paper about the work at the Aeolian Islands (Dall’Osso et al., in review-a). These publications represent the core of the present PhD thesis. The main topics dealt with are outlined and discussed in a general introduction while the overall conclusions are outlined in the last section.

Velocity structure and seismic anisotropy in the crust and upper mantle from Receiver Function analysis: three case studies in Italy

The research for this PhD project consisted in the application of the RFs analysis technique to different data-sets of teleseismic events recorded at temporary and permanent stations located in three distinct study regions: Colli Albani area, Northern Apennines and Southern Apennines. We found some velocity models to interpret the structures in these regions, which possess very different geologic and tectonics characteristics and therefore offer interesting case study to face. In the Colli Albani some of the features evidenced in the RFs are shared by all the analyzed stations: the Moho is almost flat and is located at about 23 km depth, and the presence of a relatively shallow limestone layer is a stable feature; contrariwise there are features which vary from station to station, indicating local complexities. Three seismic stations, close to the central part of the former volcanic edifice, display relevant anisotropic signatures­­­ with symmetry axes consistent with the emplacement of the magmatic chamber. Two further anisotropic layers are present at greater depth, in the lower crust and the upper mantle, respectively, with symmetry axes directions related to the evolution of the volcano complex. In Northern Apennines we defined the isotropic structure of the area, finding the depth of the Tyrrhenian (almost 25 km and flat) and Adriatic (40 km and dipping underneath the Apennines crests) Mohos. We determined a zone in which the two Mohos overlap, and identified an anisotropic body in between, involved in the subduction and going down with the Adiratic Moho. We interpreted the downgoing anisotropic layer as generated by post-subduction delamination of the top-slab layer, probably made of metamorphosed crustal rocks caught in the subduction channel and buoyantly rising toward the surface. In the Southern Apennines, we found the Moho depth for 16 seismic stations, and highlighted the presence of an anisotropic layer underneath each station, at about 15-20 km below the whole study area. The moho displays a dome-like geometry, as it is shallow (29 km) in the central part of the study area, whereas it deepens peripherally (down to 45 km); the symmetry axes of anisotropic layer, interpreted as a layer separating the upper and the lower crust, show a moho-related pattern, indicated by the foliation of the layer which is parallel to the Moho trend. Moreover, due to the exceptional seismic event occurred on April 6th next to L’Aquila town, we determined the Vs model for two station located next to the epicenter. An extremely high velocity body is found underneath AQU station at 4-10 km depth, reaching Vs of about 4 km/s, while this body is lacking underneath FAGN station. We compared the presence of this body with other recent works and found an anti-correlation between the high Vs body, the max slip patches and earthquakes distribution. The nature of this body is speculative since such high velocities are consistent with deep crust or upper mantle, but can be interpreted as a as high strength barrier of which the high Vs is a typical connotation.

Very Long Baseline Interferometry in Italy Wide-field VLBI imaging and astrometry and prospects for an Italian VLBI network including the Sardinia Radio Telescope

In this thesis the use of widefield imaging techniques and VLBI observations with a limited number of antennas are explored. I present techniques to efficiently and accurately image extremely large UV datasets. Very large VLBI datasets must be reduced into multiple, smaller datasets if today’s imaging algorithms are to be used to image them. I present a procedure for accurately shifting the phase centre of a visibility dataset. This procedure has been thoroughly tested and found to be almost two orders of magnitude more accurate than existing techniques. Errors have been found at the level of one part in 1.1 million. These are unlikely to be measurable except in the very largest UV datasets. Results of a four-station VLBI observation of a field containing multiple sources are presented. A 13 gigapixel image was constructed to search for sources across the entire primary beam of the array by generating over 700 smaller UV datasets. The source 1320+299A was detected and its astrometric position with respect to the calibrator J1329+3154 is presented. Various techniques for phase calibration and imaging across this field are explored including using the detected source as an in-beam calibrator and peeling of distant confusing sources from VLBI visibility datasets. A range of issues pertaining to wide-field VLBI have been explored including; parameterising the wide-field performance of VLBI arrays; estimating the sensitivity across the primary beam both for homogeneous and heterogeneous arrays; applying techniques such as mosaicing and primary beam correction to VLBI observations; quantifying the effects of time-average and bandwidth smearing; and calibration and imaging of wide-field VLBI datasets. The performance of a computer cluster at the Istituto di Radioastronomia in Bologna has been characterised with regard to its ability to correlate using the DiFX software correlator. Using existing software it was possible to characterise the network speed particularly for MPI applications. The capabilities of the DiFX software correlator, running on this cluster, were measured for a range of observation parameters and were shown to be commensurate with the generic performance parameters measured. The feasibility of an Italian VLBI array has been explored, with discussion of the infrastructure required, the performance of such an array, possible collaborations, and science which could be achieved. Results from a 22 GHz calibrator survey are also presented. 21 out of 33 sources were detected on a single baseline between two Italian antennas (Medicina to Noto). The results and discussions presented in this thesis suggest that wide-field VLBI is a technique whose time has finally come. Prospects for exciting new science are discussed in the final chapter.