Preliminary studies for the establishment of a tsunami early detection algorithm to be used in the frame of a Tsunami Warning System

This thesis presents and discusses TEDA, an algorithm for the automatic detection in real-time of tsunamis and large amplitude waves on sea level records. TEDA has been developed in the frame of the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna for coastal tide gauges and it has been calibrated and tested for the tide gauge station of Adak Island, in Alaska. A preliminary study to apply TEDA to offshore buoys in the Pacific Ocean is also presented.

Studio di fenomeni d'instabilità gravitativa sui fondali marini, con particolare riferimento all'isola di Stromboli

In the last decade the interest for submarine instability grew up, driven by the increasing exploitation of natural resources (primary hydrocarbons), the emplacement of bottom-lying structures (cables and pipelines) and by the development of coastal areas, whose infrastructures increasingly protrude to the sea. The great interest for this topic promoted a number of international projects such as: STEAM (Sediment Transport on European Atlantic Margins, 93-96), ENAM II (European North Atlantic Margin, 96-99), GITEC (Genesis and Impact of Tsunamis on the European Coast 92-95), STRATAFORM (STRATA FORmation on Margins, 95-01), Seabed Slope Process in Deep Water Continental Margin (Northwest Gulf of Mexico, 96-04), COSTA (Continental slope Stability, 00-05), EUROMARGINS (Slope Stability on Europe’s Passive Continental Margin), SPACOMA (04-07), EUROSTRATAFORM (European Margin Strata Formation), NGI's internal project SIP-8 (Offshore Geohazards), IGCP-511: Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences (05-09) and projects indirectly related to instability processes, such as TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European region, 06-09) or NEAREST (integrated observations from NEAR shore sourcES of Tsunamis: towards an early warning system, 06-09). In Italy, apart from a national project realized within the activities of the National Group of Volcanology during the framework 2000-2003 “Conoscenza delle parti sommerse dei vulcani italiani e valutazione del potenziale rischio vulcanico”, the study of submarine mass-movement has been underestimated until the occurrence of the landslide-tsunami events that affected Stromboli on December 30, 2002. This event made the Italian Institutions and the scientific community more aware of the hazard related to submarine landslides, mainly in light of the growing anthropization of coastal sectors, that increases the vulnerability of these areas to the consequences of such processes. In this regard, two important national projects have been recently funded in order to study coastal instabilities (PRIN 24, 06-08) and to map the main submarine hazard features on continental shelves and upper slopes around the most part of Italian coast (MaGIC Project). The study realized in this Thesis is addressed to the understanding of these processes, with particular reference to Stromboli submerged flanks. These latter represent a natural laboratory in this regard, as several kind of instability phenomena are present on the submerged flanks, affecting about 90% of the entire submerged areal and often (strongly) influencing the morphological evolution of subaerial slopes, as witnessed by the event occurred on 30 December 2002. Furthermore, each phenomenon is characterized by different pre-failure, failure and post-failure mechanisms, ranging from rock-falls, to turbidity currents up to catastrophic sector collapses. The Thesis is divided into three introductive chapters, regarding a brief review of submarine instability phenomena and related hazard (cap. 1), a “bird’s-eye” view on methodologies and available dataset (cap. 2) and a short introduction on the evolution and the morpho-structural setting of the Stromboli edifice (cap. 3). This latter seems to play a major role in the development of largescale sector collapses at Stromboli, as they occurred perpendicular to the orientation of the main volcanic rift axis (oriented in NE-SW direction). The characterization of these events and their relationships with successive erosive-depositional processes represents the main focus of cap.4 (Offshore evidence of large-scale lateral collapses on the eastern flank of Stromboli, Italy, due to structurally-controlled, bilateral flank instability) and cap. 5 (Lateral collapses and active sedimentary processes on the North-western flank of Stromboli Volcano), represented by articles accepted for publication on international papers (Marine Geology). Moreover, these studies highlight the hazard related to these catastrophic events; several calamities (with more than 40000 casualties only in the last two century) have been, in fact, the direct or indirect result of landslides affecting volcanic flanks, as observed at Oshima-Oshima (1741) and Unzen Volcano (1792) in Japan (Satake&Kato, 2001; Brantley&Scott, 1993), Krakatau (1883) in Indonesia (Self&Rampino, 1981), Ritter Island (1888), Sissano in Papua New Guinea (Ward& Day, 2003; Johnson, 1987; Tappin et al., 2001) and Mt St. Augustine (1883) in Alaska (Beget& Kienle, 1992). Flank landslide are also recognized as the most important and efficient mass-wasting process on volcanoes, contributing to the development of the edifices by widening their base and to the growth of a volcaniclastic apron at the foot of a volcano; a number of small and medium-scale erosive processes are also responsible for the carving of Stromboli submarine flanks and the transport of debris towards the deeper areas. The characterization of features associated to these processes is the main focus of cap. 6; it is also important to highlight that some small-scale events are able to create damage to coastal areas, as also witnessed by recent events of Gioia Tauro 1978, Nizza, 1979 and Stromboli 2002. The hazard potential related to these phenomena is, in fact, very high, as they commonly occur at higher frequency with respect to large-scale collapses, therefore being more significant in terms of human timescales. In the last chapter (cap. 7), a brief review and discussion of instability processes identified on Stromboli submerged flanks is presented; they are also compared with respect to analogous processes recognized in other submerged areas in order to shed lights on the main factors involved in their development. Finally, some applications of multibeam data to assess the hazard related to these phenomena are also discussed.

Analisi critica di modelli previsionali per le frane in Emilia Romagna

Questa tesi di dottorato è inserita nell’ambito della convenzione tra ARPA_SIMC (che è l’Ente finanziatore), l’Agenzia Regionale di Protezione Civile ed il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geologico - Ambientali dell’Ateneo di Bologna. L’obiettivo principale è la determinazione di possibili soglie pluviometriche di innesco per i fenomeni franosi in Emilia Romagna che possano essere utilizzate come strumento di supporto previsionale in sala operativa di Protezione Civile. In un contesto geologico così complesso, un approccio empirico tradizionale non è sufficiente per discriminare in modo univoco tra eventi meteo innescanti e non, ed in generale la distribuzione dei dati appare troppo dispersa per poter tracciare una soglia statisticamente significativa. È stato quindi deciso di applicare il rigoroso approccio statistico Bayesiano, innovativo poiché calcola la probabilità di frana dato un certo evento di pioggia (P(A|B)) , considerando non solo le precipitazioni innescanti frane (quindi la probabilità condizionata di avere un certo evento di precipitazione data l’occorrenza di frana, P(B|A)), ma anche le precipitazioni non innescanti (quindi la probabilità a priori di un evento di pioggia, P(A)). L’approccio Bayesiano è stato applicato all’intervallo temporale compreso tra il 1939 ed il 2009. Le isolinee di probabilità ottenute minimizzano i falsi allarmi e sono facilmente implementabili in un sistema di allertamento regionale, ma possono presentare limiti previsionali per fenomeni non rappresentati nel dataset storico o che avvengono in condizioni anomale. Ne sono esempio le frane superficiali con evoluzione in debris flows, estremamente rare negli ultimi 70 anni, ma con frequenza recentemente in aumento. Si è cercato di affrontare questo problema testando la variabilità previsionale di alcuni modelli fisicamente basati appositamente sviluppati a questo scopo, tra cui X – SLIP (Montrasio et al., 1998), SHALSTAB (SHALlow STABility model, Montgomery & Dietrich, 1994), Iverson (2000), TRIGRS 1.0 (Baum et al., 2002), TRIGRS 2.0 (Baum et al., 2008).

Knowledge management in intelligent tutoring systems

In the last years, Intelligent Tutoring Systems have been a very successful way for improving learning experience. Many issues must be addressed until this technology can be defined mature. One of the main problems within the Intelligent Tutoring Systems is the process of contents authoring: knowledge acquisition and manipulation processes are difficult tasks because they require a specialised skills on computer programming and knowledge engineering. In this thesis we discuss a general framework for knowledge management in an Intelligent Tutoring System and propose a mechanism based on first order data mining to partially automate the process of knowledge acquisition that have to be used in the ITS during the tutoring process. Such a mechanism can be applied in Constraint Based Tutor and in the Pseudo-Cognitive Tutor. We design and implement a part of the proposed architecture, mainly the module of knowledge acquisition from examples based on first order data mining. We then show that the algorithm can be applied at least two different domains: first order algebra equation and some topics of C programming language. Finally we discuss the limitation of current approach and the possible improvements of the whole framework.

Argumentation and artifacts for intelligent multi-agent systems

Reasoning under uncertainty is a human capacity that in software system is necessary and often hidden. Argumentation theory and logic make explicit non-monotonic information in order to enable automatic forms of reasoning under uncertainty. In human organization Distributed Cognition and Activity Theory explain how artifacts are fundamental in all cognitive process. Then, in this thesis we search to understand the use of cognitive artifacts in an new argumentation framework for an agent-based artificial society.

IGF system, CD99 and tumor-specific chromosomal translocations: evaluation of their cross-talk and definition of their role in Ewing sarcoma and prostate cancer

Aberrant expression of ETS transcription factors, including FLI1 and ERG, due to chromosomal translocations has been described as a driver event in initiation and progression of different tumors. In this study, the impact of prostate cancer (PCa) fusion gene TMPRSS2-ERG was evaluated on components of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system and the CD99 molecule, two well documented targets of EWS-FLI1, the hallmark of Ewing sarcoma (ES). The aim of this study was to identify common or distinctive ETS-related mechanisms which could be exploited at biological and clinical level. The results demonstrate that IGF-1R represents a common target of ETS rearrangements as ERG and FLI1 bind IGF-1R gene promoter and their modulation causes alteration in IGF-1R protein levels. At clinical level, this mechanism provides basis for a more rationale use of anti-IGF-1R inhibitors as PCa cells expressing the fusion gene better respond to anti-IGF-1R agents. EWS-FLI1/IGF-1R axis provides rationale for combination of anti-IGF-1R agents with trabectedin, an alkylator agent causing enhanced EWS-FLI1 occupancy on the IGF-1R promoter. TMPRSS2-ERG also influences prognosis relevance of IGF system as high IGF-1R correlates with a better biochemical progression free survival (BPFS) in PCa patients negative for the fusion gene while marginal or no association was found in the total cases or TMPRSS2-ERG-positive cases, respectively. This study indicates CD99 is differentially regulated between ETS-related tumors as CD99 is not a target of ERG. In PCa, CD99 did not show differential expression between TMPRSS2-ERG-positive and –negative cells. A direct correlation was anyway found between ERG and CD99 proteins both in vitro and in patients putatively suggesting that ERG target genes comprehend regulators of CD99. Despite a little trend suggesting a correlation between CD99 expression and a better BPFS, no clinical relevance for CD99 was found in the field of prognostic biomarkers.

Development of a microgrid with renewable energy sources and electrochemical storage system integration

Beside the traditional paradigm of "centralized" power generation, a new concept of "distributed" generation is emerging, in which the same user becomes pro-sumer. During this transition, the Energy Storage Systems (ESS) can provide multiple services and features, which are necessary for a higher quality of the electrical system and for the optimization of non-programmable Renewable Energy Source (RES) power plants. A ESS prototype was designed, developed and integrated into a renewable energy production system in order to create a smart microgrid and consequently manage in an efficient and intelligent way the energy flow as a function of the power demand. The produced energy can be introduced into the grid, supplied to the load directly or stored in batteries. The microgrid is composed by a 7 kW wind turbine (WT) and a 17 kW photovoltaic (PV) plant are part of. The load is given by electrical utilities of a cheese factory. The ESS is composed by the following two subsystems, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) and a Power Control System (PCS). With the aim of sizing the ESS, a Remote Grid Analyzer (RGA) was designed, realized and connected to the wind turbine, photovoltaic plant and the switchboard. Afterwards, different electrochemical storage technologies were studied, and taking into account the load requirements present in the cheese factory, the most suitable solution was identified in the high temperatures salt Na-NiCl2 battery technology. The data acquisition from all electrical utilities provided a detailed load analysis, indicating the optimal storage size equal to a 30 kW battery system. Moreover a container was designed and realized to locate the BESS and PCS, meeting all the requirements and safety conditions. Furthermore, a smart control system was implemented in order to handle the different applications of the ESS, such as peak shaving or load levelling.

Classification algorithms for Intelligent Transport Systems

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) consists in the application of ICT to transport to offer new and improved services to the mobility of people and freights. While using ITS, travellers produce large quantities of data that can be collected and analysed to study their behaviour and to provide information to decision makers and planners. The thesis proposes innovative deployments of classification algorithms for Intelligent Transport System with the aim to support the decisions on traffic rerouting, bus transport demand and behaviour of two wheelers vehicles. The first part of this work provides an overview and a classification of a selection of clustering algorithms that can be implemented for the analysis of ITS data. The first contribution of this thesis is an innovative use of the agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm to classify similar travels in terms of their origin and destination, together with the proposal for a methodology to analyse drivers’ route choice behaviour using GPS coordinates and optimal alternatives. The clusters of repetitive travels made by a sample of drivers are then analysed to compare observed route choices to the modelled alternatives. The results of the analysis show that drivers select routes that are more reliable but that are more expensive in terms of travel time. Successively, different types of users of a service that provides information on the real time arrivals of bus at stop are classified using Support Vector Machines. The results shows that the results of the classification of different types of bus transport users can be used to update or complement the census on bus transport flows. Finally, the problem of the classification of accidents made by two wheelers vehicles is presented together with possible future application of clustering methodologies aimed at identifying and classifying the different types of accidents.