Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Sistema per l'estrazione e purificazione di sostanze antiossidanti naturali nelle acque di vegetazione delle olive

The olive oil extraction industry is responsible for the production of high quantities of vegetation waters, represented by the constitutive water of the olive fruit and by the water used during the process. This by-product represent an environmental problem in the olive’s cultivation areas because of its high content of organic matter, with high value of BOD5 and COD. For that reason the disposal of the vegetation water is very difficult and needs a previous depollution. The organic matter of vegetation water mainly consists of polysaccharides, sugars, proteins, organic acids, oil and polyphenols. This last compounds are the principal responsible for the pollution problems, due to their antimicrobial activity, but, at the same time they are well known for their antioxidant properties. The most concentrate phenolic compounds in waters and also in virgin olive oils are secoiridoids like oleuropein, demethyloleuropein and ligstroside derivatives (the dialdehydic form of elenolic acid linked to 3,4-DHPEA, or p-HPEA (3,4-DHPEA-EDA or p-HPEA-EDA) and an isomer of the oleuropein aglycon (3,4-DHPEA-EA). The management of the olive oil vegetation water has been extensively investigated and several different valorisation methods have been proposed, such as the direct use as fertilizer or the transformation by physico-chemical or biological treatments. During the last years researchers focused their interest on the recovery of the phenolic fraction from this waste looking for its exploitation as a natural antioxidant source. At the present only few contributes have been aimed to the utilization for a large scale phenols recovery and further investigations are required for the evaluation of feasibility and costs of the proposed processes. The present PhD thesis reports a preliminary description of a new industrial scale process for the recovery of the phenolic fraction from olive oil vegetation water treated with enzymes, by direct membrane filtration (microfiltration/ultrafiltration with a cut-off of 250 KDa, ultrafiltration with a cut-off of 7 KDa/10 KDa and nanofiltration/reverse osmosis), partial purification by the use of a purification system based on SPE analysis and by a liquid-liquid extraction system (LLE) with contemporary reduction of the pollution related problems. The phenolic fractions of all the samples obtained were qualitatively and quantitatively by HPLC analysis. The work efficiency in terms of flows and in terms of phenolic recovery gave good results. The final phenolic recovery is about 60% respect the initial content in the vegetation waters. The final concentrate has shown a high content of phenols that allow to hypothesize a possible use as zootechnic nutritional supplements. The purification of the final concentrate have garanteed an high purity level of the phenolic extract especially in SPE analysis by the use of XAD-16 (73% of the total phenolic content of the concentrate). This purity level could permit a future food industry employment such as food additive, or, thanks to the strong antioxidant activity, it would be also use in pharmaceutical or cosmetic industry. The vegetation water depollutant activity has brought good results, as a matter of fact the final reverse osmosis permeate has a low pollutant rate in terms of COD and BOD5 values (2% of the initial vegetation water), that could determinate a recycling use in the virgin olive oil mechanical extraction system producing a water saving and reducing thus the oil industry disposal costs .

Modelli non lineari statici e dinamici su dati microeconomici: analisi delle condizioni finanziarie delle famiglie italiane

The thesis studies the economic and financial conditions of Italian households, by using microeconomic data of the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the period 1998-2006. It develops along two lines of enquiry. First it studies the determinants of households holdings of assets and liabilities and estimates their correlation degree. After a review of the literature, it estimates two non-linear multivariate models on the interactions between assets and liabilities with repeated cross-sections. Second, it analyses households financial difficulties. It defines a quantitative measure of financial distress and tests, by means of non-linear dynamic probit models, whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. Chapter 1 provides a critical review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of assets and liabilities holdings, on their interactions and on households net wealth. The review stresses the fact that a large part of the literature explain households debt holdings as a function, among others, of net wealth, an assumption that runs into possible endogeneity problems. Chapter 2 defines two non-linear multivariate models to study the interactions between assets and liabilities held by Italian households. Estimation refers to a pooling of cross-sections of SHIW. The first model is a bivariate tobit that estimates factors affecting assets and liabilities and their degree of correlation with results coherent with theoretical expectations. To tackle the presence of non normality and heteroskedasticity in the error term, generating non consistent tobit estimators, semi-parametric estimates are provided that confirm the results of the tobit model. The second model is a quadrivariate probit on three different assets (safe, risky and real) and total liabilities; the results show the expected patterns of interdependence suggested by theoretical considerations. Chapter 3 reviews the methodologies for estimating non-linear dynamic panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem raised by the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. The advantage of using dynamic panel data models lies in the fact that they allow to simultaneously account for true state dependence, via the lagged variable, and unobserved heterogeneity via individual effects specification. Chapter 4 applies the models reviewed in Chapter 3 to analyse financial difficulties of Italian households, by using information on net wealth as provided in the panel component of the SHIW. The aim is to test whether households persistently experience financial difficulties over time. A thorough discussion is provided of the alternative approaches proposed by the literature (subjective/qualitative indicators versus quantitative indexes) to identify households in financial distress. Households in financial difficulties are identified as those holding amounts of net wealth lower than the value corresponding to the first quartile of net wealth distribution. Estimation is conducted via four different methods: the pooled probit model, the random effects probit model with exogenous initial conditions, the Heckman model and the recently developed Wooldridge model. Results obtained from all estimators accept the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, according with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely the pooled and exogenous models, over-estimate such persistence.

Formulations and Algorithms for Routing Problems

Combinatorial Optimization is a branch of optimization that deals with the problems where the set of feasible solutions is discrete. Routing problem is a well studied branch of Combinatorial Optimization that concerns the process of deciding the best way of visiting the nodes (customers) in a network. Routing problems appear in many real world applications including: Transportation, Telephone or Electronic data Networks. During the years, many solution procedures have been introduced for the solution of different Routing problems. Some of them are based on exact approaches to solve the problems to optimality and some others are based on heuristic or metaheuristic search to find optimal or near optimal solutions. There is also a less studied method, which combines both heuristic and exact approaches to face different problems including those in the Combinatorial Optimization area. The aim of this dissertation is to develop some solution procedures based on the combination of heuristic and Integer Linear Programming (ILP) techniques for some important problems in Routing Optimization. In this approach, given an initial feasible solution to be possibly improved, the method follows a destruct-and-repair paradigm, where the given solution is randomly destroyed (i.e., customers are removed in a random way) and repaired by solving an ILP model, in an attempt to find a new improved solution.

The impact of R&D in firm value across Europe

In this thesis the impact of R&D expenditures on firm market value and stock returns is examined. This is performed in a sample of European listed firms for the period 2000-2009. I apply different linear and GMM econometric estimations for testing the impact of R&D on market prices and construct country portfolios based on firms’ R&D expenditure to market capitalization ratio for studying the effect of R&D on stock returns. The results confirm that more innovative firms have a better market valuation,investors consider R&D as an asset that produces long-term benefits for corporations. The impact of R&D on firm value differs across countries. It is significantly modulated by the financial and legal environment where firms operate. Other firm and industry characteristics seem to play a determinant role when investors value R&D. First, only larger firms with lower financial leverage that operate in highly innovative sectors decide to disclose their R&D investment. Second, the markets assign a premium to small firms, which operate in hi-tech sectors compared to larger enterprises for low-tech industries. On the other hand, I provide empirical evidence indicating that generally highly R&D-intensive firms may enhance mispricing problems related to firm valuation. As R&D contributes to the estimation of future stock returns, portfolios that comprise high R&D-intensive stocks may earn significant excess returns compared to the less innovative after controlling for size and book-to-market risk. Further, the most innovative firms are generally more risky in terms of stock volatility but not systematically more risky than low-tech firms. Firms that operate in Continental Europe suffer more mispricing compared to Anglo-Saxon peers but the former are less volatile, other things being equal. The sectors where firms operate are determinant even for the impact of R&D on stock returns; this effect is much stronger in hi-tech industries.

Innovation and economic performance of the firms in the service sector: relevant issues and open problems

This thesis is a collection of essays related to the topic of innovation in the service sector. The choice of this structure is functional to the purpose of single out some of the relevant issues and try to tackle them, revising first the state of the literature and then proposing a way forward. Three relevant issues has been therefore selected: (i) the definition of innovation in the service sector and the connected question of measurement of innovation; (ii) the issue of productivity in services; (iii) the classification of innovative firms in the service sector. Facing the first issue, chapter II shows how the initial width of the original Schumpeterian definition of innovation has been narrowed and then passed to the service sector form the manufacturing one in a reduce technological form. Chapter III tackle the issue of productivity in services, discussing the difficulties for measuring productivity in a context where the output is often immaterial. We reconstruct the dispute on the Baumol’s cost disease argument and propose two different ways to go forward in the research on productivity in services: redefining the output along the line of a characteristic approach; and redefining the inputs, particularly analysing which kind of input it’s worth saving. Chapter IV derives an integrated taxonomy of innovative service and manufacturing firms, using data coming from the 2008 CIS survey for Italy. This taxonomy is based on the enlarged definition of “innovative firm” deriving from the Schumpeterian definition of innovation and classify firms using a cluster analysis techniques. The result is the emergence of a four cluster solution, where firms are differentiated by the breadth of the innovation activities in which they are involved. Chapter 5 reports some of the main conclusions of each singular previous chapter and the points worth of further research in the future.

Radar based improvements and diagnosis of the convective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model

In the last few years the resolution of numerical weather prediction (nwp) became higher and higher with the progresses of technology and knowledge. As a consequence, a great number of initial data became fundamental for a correct initialization of the models. The potential of radar observations has long been recognized for improving the initial conditions of high-resolution nwp models, while operational application becomes more frequent. The fact that many nwp centres have recently taken into operations convection-permitting forecast models, many of which assimilate radar data, emphasizes the need for an approach to providing quality information which is needed in order to avoid that radar errors degrade the model's initial conditions and, therefore, its forecasts. Environmental risks can can be related with various causes: meteorological, seismical, hydrological/hydraulic. Flash floods have horizontal dimension of 1-20 Km and can be inserted in mesoscale gamma subscale, this scale can be modeled only with nwp model with the highest resolution as the COSMO-2 model. One of the problems of modeling extreme convective events is related with the atmospheric initial conditions, in fact the scale dimension for the assimilation of atmospheric condition in an high resolution model is about 10 Km, a value too high for a correct representation of convection initial conditions. Assimilation of radar data with his resolution of about of Km every 5 or 10 minutes can be a solution for this problem. In this contribution a pragmatic and empirical approach to deriving a radar data quality description is proposed to be used in radar data assimilation and more specifically for the latent heat nudging (lhn) scheme. Later the the nvective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model are investigated through some case studies. Finally, this work shows some preliminary experiments of coupling of a high resolution meteorological model with an Hydrological one.