Population ageing, longevity and migration: an overlapping generations approach

The silent demographic revolution characterizing the main industrialized countries is an unavoidable factor which has major economic, social, cultural and psychological implications. This thesis studies the main consequences of population ageing and the connections with the phenomenon of migration, The theoretical analysis is developed using Overlapping Generations Models (OLG). The thesis is divided in the following four chapters: 1) “A Model for Determining Consumption and Social Assistance Demand in Uncertainty Conditions”, focuses on the relation between demographic impact and social insurance and proposes the institution of a non selfsufficiency fund for the elderly. 2) "Population Ageing, Longevity and Health", analyzes the effects of health investment on intertemporal individual behaviour and capital accumulation. 3) "Population Ageing and the Nursing Flow", studies the consequences of migration in the nursing sector. 4) "Quality of Multiculturalism and Minorities' Assimilation", focuses on the problem of assimilation and integration of minorities.

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Cognitive and affective processes in social actions and decisions

The question of how we make, and how we should make judgments and decisions has occupied thinkers for many centuries. This thesis has the aim to add new evidences to clarify the brain’s mechanisms for decisions. The cognitive and the emotional processes of social actions and decisions are investigated with the aim to understand which brain areas are mostly involved. Four experimental studies are presented. A specific kind of population is involved in the first study (as well as in study III) concerning patients with lesion of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). This region is collocated in the ventral surface of frontal lobe, and it seems have an important role in social and moral decision in forecasting the negative emotional consequences of choice. In study I, it is examined whether emotions, specifically social emotions subserved by the vmPFC, affect people’s willingness to trust others. In study II is observed how incidental emotions could encourage trusting behaviour, especially when individuals are not aware of emotive stimulation. Study III has the aim to gather a direct psychophysiological evidence, both in healthy and neurologically impaired individuals, that emotions are crucially involved in shaping moral judgment, by preventing moral violations. Study IV explores how the moral meaning of a decision and its subsequent action can modulate the basic component of action such as sense of agency.

Peer and group relationships in preschoolers: the role of social and linguistic skills

Being able to positively interact and build relationships with playmates in preschool years is crucial to achieve positive adjustment. An update review and two studies on such topics were provided. Study 1 is observational; it investigates the type of social experience in groups (N = 443) of children (N = 120) at preschool age in child-led vs. teacher-led contexts. The results revealed that in child-led contexts children were more likely to be alone, in dyads, and in small peer groups; groups were mostly characterized by same-gender playmates who engaged in joint interactions, with few social interactions with teachers. In teacher-led contexts, on the other hand, children were more likely to be involved in small, medium and large groups; groups were mostly characterized by other-gender playmates, involved in parallel interactions, with teachers playing a more active role. The purpose of Study 2 was to describe the development of socio-emotional competence, temperamental traits and linguistic skill. It examined the role of children’s reciprocated nominations (=RNs) with peers, assessed via sociometric interview, in relation to socio-emotional competence, temperamental traits and linguistic skill. Finally, the similarity-homophily tendency was investigated. Socio-emotional competence and temperamental traits were assessed via teacher ratings, linguistic skill via test administration. Eighty-four preschool children (M age = 62.53) were recruited within 4 preschool settings. Those children were quite representative of preschool population. The results revealed that children with higher RNs showed higher social competence (tendency), social orientation, positive emotionality, motor activity and linguistic skill. They exhibited lower anxiety-withdrawal. The results also showed that children prefer playmates with similar features: social competence, anger-aggression (tendency), social orientation, positive emotionality, inhibition to innovation, attention, motor activity (tendency) and linguistic skill. Implications for future research were suggested.

Phylogeny and population dynamics in European Reticulitermes and Kalotermes genera (Insecta, Isoptera)

The aim of this thesis is to detect the phylogeny and the population dynamics of the European termites of the genera Reticulitermes and Kalotermes, by the use of different mitochondrial (16S, COI/tRNA/COII, CR) and nuclear (microsatellites and Inter-SINE) molecular markers. In the phylogenetic analyses, the obtained results have well defined the cladogenetic events that generated the nowadays species biodiversity of the genus Reticulitermes, while the analysis of the Kalotermes flavicollis taxon showed the presence of at least four genetic clades, defined on the basis of the geographical distance. The second part of the thesis is centred on the population dynamics of two species: Reticulitermes urbis and Kalotermes flavicollis. The first species, native of the Balkans, is known to be present in some cities of Italy and France. I’ve analyzed the colony genetic structure of the introduced population of Bagnacavallo (RA, Italy), using nine microsatellite loci. The obtained results are in accordance with those obtained from another population in France: this species in fact confirms its invasive and infestation capacities. The analysis of the natural population of K. flavicollis, performed with a combination of mitochondrial (control region) and nuclear (microsatellites and I-SINE) markers, clearly evidenced the presence of two genetic lineages that coexist in the same area. Moreover, results clearly indicate that the cross-breeding is allowed. Finally, the whole results are discussed in a comparative view to better understand the differences in ecology, evolutionary dynamics and colony social structure between these two genera.

Genetic characterization, population history and evolutionary medicine perspective in two native south american populations: Yanesha and Wichi

Two Amerindian populations from the Peruvian Amazon (Yanesha) and from rural lowlands of the Argentinean Gran Chaco (Wichi) were analyzed. They represent two case study of the South American genetic variability. The Yanesha represent a model of population isolated for long-time in the Amazon rainforest, characterized by environmental and altitudinal stratifications. The Wichi represent a model of population living in an area recently colonized by European populations (the Criollos are the population of the admixed descendents), whose aim is to depict the native ancestral gene pool and the degree of admixture, in relation to the very high prevalence of Chagas disease. The methods used for the genotyping are common, concerning the Y chromosome markers (male lineage) and the mitochondrial markers (maternal lineage). The determination of the phylogeographic diagnostic polymorphisms was carried out by the classical techniques of PCR, restriction enzymes, sequencing and specific mini-sequencing. New method for the detection of the protozoa Trypanosoma cruzi was developed by means of the nested PCR. The main results show patterns of genetic stratification in Yanesha forest communities, referable to different migrations at different times, estimated by Bayesian analyses. In particular Yanesha were considered as a population of transition between the Amazon basin and the Andean Cordillera, evaluating the potential migration routes and the separation of clusters of community in relation to different genetic bio-ancestry. As the Wichi, the gene pool analyzed appears clearly differentiated by the admixed sympatric Criollos, due to strict social practices (deeply analyzed with the support of cultural anthropological tools) that have preserved the native identity at a diachronic level. A pattern of distribution of the seropositivity in relation to the different phylogenetic lineages (the adaptation in evolutionary terms) does not appear, neither Amerindian nor European, but in relation to environmental and living conditions of the two distinct subpopulations.

Social learning and action understanding in human observers: contributions of sensori-motor constraints and prior information

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the respective contribution of prior information and sensorimotor constraints to action understanding, and to estimate their consequences on the evolution of human social learning. Even though a huge amount of literature is dedicated to the study of action understanding and its role in social learning, these issues are still largely debated. Here, I critically describe two main perspectives. The first perspective interprets faithful social learning as an outcome of a fine-grained representation of others’ actions and intentions that requires sophisticated socio-cognitive skills. In contrast, the second perspective highlights the role of simpler decision heuristics, the recruitment of which is determined by individual and ecological constraints. The present thesis aims to show, through four experimental works, that these two contributions are not mutually exclusive. A first study investigates the role of the inferior frontal cortex (IFC), the anterior intraparietal area (AIP) and the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) in the recognition of other people’s actions, using a transcranial magnetic stimulation adaptation paradigm (TMSA). The second work studies whether, and how, higher-order and lower-order prior information (acquired from the probabilistic sampling of past events vs. derived from an estimation of biomechanical constraints of observed actions) interacts during the prediction of other people’s intentions. Using a single-pulse TMS procedure, the third study investigates whether the interaction between these two classes of priors modulates the motor system activity. The fourth study tests the extent to which behavioral and ecological constraints influence the emergence of faithful social learning strategies at a population level. The collected data contribute to elucidate how higher-order and lower-order prior expectations interact during action prediction, and clarify the neural mechanisms underlying such interaction. Finally, these works provide/open promising perspectives for a better understanding of social learning, with possible extensions to animal models.

Predictability in Social Science, The statistical mechanics approach.

The subject of this work concerns the study of the immigration phenomenon, with emphasis on the aspects related to the integration of an immigrant population in a hosting one. Aim of this work is to show the forecasting ability of a recent finding where the behavior of integration quantifiers was analyzed and investigated with a mathematical model of statistical physics origins (a generalization of the monomer dimer model). After providing a detailed literature review of the model, we show that not only such a model is able to identify the social mechanism that drives a particular integration process, but it also provides correct forecast. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.