Micro and Macro essays in Applied Fiscal Policy

This thesis analysis micro and macro aspect of applied fiscal policy issues. The first chapter investigates the extent to which local budget spending composition reacts to fiscal rules variations. I consider the budget of Italian municipalities and exploit specific changes in the Domestic Stability Pact’s rules, to perform a difference-in-discontinuities analysis. The results show that imposing a cap on the total amount of consumption and investment is not as binding as two caps, one for consumption and a different one for investment. More specifically, consumption is triggered by changes in wages and services spending, while investment relies on infrastructure movements. In addition, there is evidence that when an increase in investment is achieved, there is also a higher budget deficit level. The second chapter intends to analyze the extent to which fiscal policy shocks are able to affect macrovariables during business cycle fluctuations, differentiating among three intervention channels: public taxation, consumption and investment. The econometric methodology implemented is a Panel Vector Autoregressive model with a structural characterization. The results show that fiscal shocks have different multipliers in relation to expansion or contraction periods: output does not react during good times while there are significant effects in bad ones. The third chapter evaluates the effects of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the long-term sovereign bond spread of Italy relative to Germany. After collecting data on relevant fiscal policy announcements, we perform an econometric comparative analysis between the three cabinets that followed one another during the period 2009-2013. The results suggest that only fiscal policy announcements made by members of Monti’s cabinet have been effective in influencing significantly the Italian spread in the expected direction, revealing a remarkable credibility gap between Berlusconi’s and Letta’s governments with respect to Monti’s administration.

Experimental and numerical investigation on short and long term performance of macro-synthetic fibre reinforced concrete materials

Fibre Reinforced Concretes are innovative composite materials whose applications are growing considerably nowadays. Being composite materials, their performance depends on the mechanical properties of both components, fibre and matrix and, above all, on the interface. The variables to account for the mechanical characterization of the material, could be proper of the material itself, i.e. fibre and concrete type, or external factors, i.e. environmental conditions. The first part of the research presented is focused on the experimental and numerical characterization of the interface properties and short term response of fibre reinforced concretes with macro-synthetic fibers. The experimental database produced represents the starting point for numerical models calibration and validation with two principal purposes: the calibration of a local constitutive law and calibration and validation of a model predictive of the whole material response. In the perspective of the design of sustainable admixtures, the optimization of the matrix of cement-based fibre reinforced composites is realized with partial substitution of the cement amount. In the second part of the research, the effect of time dependent phenomena on MSFRCs response is studied. An extended experimental campaign of creep tests is performed analysing the effect of time and temperature variations in different loading conditions. On the results achieved, a numerical model able to account for the viscoelastic nature of both concrete and reinforcement, together with the environmental conditions, is calibrated with the LDPM theory. Different type of regression models are also elaborated correlating the mechanical properties investigated, bond strength and residual flexural behaviour, regarding the short term analysis and creep coefficient on time, for the time dependent behaviour, with the variable investigated. The experimental studies carried out emphasize the several aspects influencing the material mechanical performance allowing also the identification of those properties that the numerical approach should consider in order to be reliable.

Governing the water conservation in the Urmia Lake Basin: addressing macro systems’ fit and micro users’ behavior

To change unadapted water governing systems, and water users’ traditional conducts in line with climate change, understanding of systems’ structures and users’ behaviors is necessary. To this aim, comprehensive and pragmatic research was designed and implemented in the Urmia Lake Basin where due to the severe droughts, and human-made influences, especially through the agricultural development, the lake has been shrunken drastically. To analyze the water governance and conservation issues in the basin, an innovative framework was developed based on mathematical physics concepts and pro-environmental behavior theories. Accordingly, in system level (macro/meso), the problem of fit of the early-shaped water governing system associating with the function of “political-security” and “political-economic” factors in the basin was identified through mean-field models. Furthermore, the effect of a “political-environmental” factor, the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), on reforming the system structure and hence its fit was assessed. The analysis results revealed that by revising the provincial boundaries (horizontal alternation) for the entity of Kurdistan province to permit that interact with the headquarter of West Azerbaijan province for its water demand-supply initiatives, the system fit can increase. Also, the constitution of the ULRP (vertical arrangement) not only could increase the structural fit of the water governing system to the basin, but also significantly could enhance the system fit through its water-saving policy. Besides, in individual level (micro), the governing factors of water conservation behavior of the major users/farmers were identified through rational and moral socio-psychological models. In rational approach, incorporating PMT and TPB, the SEM results demonstrated that “Perceived Vulnerability”, “Self-Efficacy”, “Response Efficacy”, “Response Cost”, “Subjective Norms” and “Institutional Trust” significantly affect the water-saving intention/behavior. Likewise, NAM based analysis as a moral approach, uncovered the significant effects of “Awareness of Consequences”, “Appraisal of Responsibility”, “Personal Norms” as well as “Place Attachment” and “Emotions” on water-saving intention.