The rupture process of recent tsunamigenic earthquakes by geophysical data inversion

Subduction zones are the favorite places to generate tsunamigenic earthquakes, where friction between oceanic and continental plates causes the occurrence of a strong seismicity. The topics and the methodologies discussed in this thesis are focussed to the understanding of the rupture process of the seismic sources of great earthquakes that generate tsunamis. The tsunamigenesis is controlled by several kinematical characteristic of the parent earthquake, as the focal mechanism, the depth of the rupture, the slip distribution along the fault area and by the mechanical properties of the source zone. Each of these factors plays a fundamental role in the tsunami generation. Therefore, inferring the source parameters of tsunamigenic earthquakes is crucial to understand the generation of the consequent tsunami and so to mitigate the risk along the coasts. The typical way to proceed when we want to gather information regarding the source process is to have recourse to the inversion of geophysical data that are available. Tsunami data, moreover, are useful to constrain the portion of the fault area that extends offshore, generally close to the trench that, on the contrary, other kinds of data are not able to constrain. In this thesis I have discussed the rupture process of some recent tsunamigenic events, as inferred by means of an inverse method. I have presented the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake (Mw 8.1). In this study the slip distribution on the fault has been inferred by inverting tsunami waveform, GPS, and bottom-pressure data. The joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data has revealed a much better constrain for the slip distribution on the fault rather than the separate inversions of single datasets. Then we have studied the earthquake occurred on 2007 in southern Sumatra (Mw 8.4). By inverting several tsunami waveforms, both in the near and in the far field, we have determined the slip distribution and the mean rupture velocity along the causative fault. Since the largest patch of slip was concentrated on the deepest part of the fault, this is the likely reason for the small tsunami waves that followed the earthquake, pointing out how much the depth of the rupture plays a crucial role in controlling the tsunamigenesis. Finally, we have presented a new rupture model for the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.2). We have performed the joint inversion of tsunami waveform, GPS and satellite altimetry data, to infer the slip distribution, the slip direction, and the rupture velocity on the fault. Furthermore, in this work we have presented a novel method to estimate, in a self-consistent way, the average rigidity of the source zone. The estimation of the source zone rigidity is important since it may play a significant role in the tsunami generation and, particularly for slow earthquakes, a low rigidity value is sometimes necessary to explain how a relatively low seismic moment earthquake may generate significant tsunamis; this latter point may be relevant for explaining the mechanics of the tsunami earthquakes, one of the open issues in present day seismology. The investigation of these tsunamigenic earthquakes has underlined the importance to use a joint inversion of different geophysical data to determine the rupture characteristics. The results shown here have important implications for the implementation of new tsunami warning systems – particularly in the near-field – the improvement of the current ones, and furthermore for the planning of the inundation maps for tsunami-hazard assessment along the coastal area.

Development of the optimal estimation method for inversion of stratospheric emission spectra and validation of HNO3 profiles

This doctoral thesis focuses on ground-based measurements of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3)concentrations obtained by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS). Pressure broadened HNO3 emission spectra are analyzed using a new inversion algorithm developed as part of this thesis work and the retrieved vertical profiles are extensively compared to satellite-based data. This comparison effort I carried out has a key role in establishing a long-term (1991-2010), global data record of stratospheric HNO3, with an expected impact on studies concerning ozone decline and recovery. The first part of this work is focused on the development of an ad hoc version of the Optimal Estimation Method (Rodgers, 2000) in order to retrieve HNO3 spectra observed by means of GBMS. I also performed a comparison between HNO3 vertical profiles retrieved with the OEM and those obtained with the old iterative Matrix Inversion method. Results show no significant differences in retrieved profiles and error estimates, with the OEM providing however additional information needed to better characterize the retrievals. A final section of this first part of the work is dedicated to a brief review on the application of the OEM to other trace gases observed by GBMS, namely O3 and N2O. The second part of this study deals with the validation of HNO3 profiles obtained with the new inversion method. The first step has been the validation of GBMS measurements of tropospheric opacity, which is a necessary tool in the calibration of any GBMS spectra. This was achieved by means of comparisons among correlative measurements of water vapor column content (or Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV) since, in the spectral region observed by GBMS, the tropospheric opacity is almost entirely due to water vapor absorption. In particular, I compared GBMS PWV measurements collected during the primary field campaign of the ECOWAR project (Bhawar et al., 2008) with simultaneous PWV observations obtained with Vaisala RS92k radiosondes, a Raman lidar, and an IR Fourier transform spectrometer. I found that GBMS PWV measurements are in good agreement with the other three data sets exhibiting a mean difference between observations of ~9%. After this initial validation, GBMS HNO3 retrievals have been compared to two sets of satellite data produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments (aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) from 1991 to 1999, and on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission from 2004 to date). This part of my thesis is inserted in GOZCARDS (Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere), a multi-year project, aimed at developing a long-term data record of stratospheric constituents relevant to the issues of ozone decline and expected recovery. This data record will be based mainly on satellite-derived measurements but ground-based observations will be pivotal for assessing offsets between satellite data sets. Since the GBMS has been operated for more than 15 years, its nitric acid data record offers a unique opportunity for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements from the two MLS experiments. I compare GBMS HNO3 measurements obtained from the Italian Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), during the period February 2004 - March 2007, and from Thule Air Base, Greenland (76.5°N 68.8°W), during polar winter 2008/09, and Aura MLS observations. A similar intercomparison is made between UARS MLS HNO3 measurements with those carried out from the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), during the most part of 1993 and 1995. I assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels. Results show that, except for measurements carried out at Thule, ground based and satellite data sets are consistent within the errors, at all potential temperature levels.

Kinematic description of the rupture from strong motion data: strategies for a robust inversion

We present a non linear technique to invert strong motion records with the aim of obtaining the final slip and rupture velocity distributions on the fault plane. In this thesis, the ground motion simulation is obtained evaluating the representation integral in the frequency. The Green’s tractions are computed using the discrete wave-number integration technique that provides the full wave-field in a 1D layered propagation medium. The representation integral is computed through a finite elements technique, based on a Delaunay’s triangulation on the fault plane. The rupture velocity is defined on a coarser regular grid and rupture times are computed by integration of the eikonal equation. For the inversion, the slip distribution is parameterized by 2D overlapping Gaussian functions, which can easily relate the spectrum of the possible solutions with the minimum resolvable wavelength, related to source-station distribution and data processing. The inverse problem is solved by a two-step procedure aimed at separating the computation of the rupture velocity from the evaluation of the slip distribution, the latter being a linear problem, when the rupture velocity is fixed. The non-linear step is solved by optimization of an L2 misfit function between synthetic and real seismograms, and solution is searched by the use of the Neighbourhood Algorithm. The conjugate gradient method is used to solve the linear step instead. The developed methodology has been applied to the M7.2, Iwate Nairiku Miyagi, Japan, earthquake. The estimated magnitude seismic moment is 2.6326 dyne∙cm that corresponds to a moment magnitude MW 6.9 while the mean the rupture velocity is 2.0 km/s. A large slip patch extends from the hypocenter to the southern shallow part of the fault plane. A second relatively large slip patch is found in the northern shallow part. Finally, we gave a quantitative estimation of errors associates with the parameters.

International Agricultural Trade under Regulatory Asymmetry: An Economic Analysis of SME Export Behavior

Over the last three decades, international agricultural trade has grown significantly. Technological advances in transportation logistics and storage have created opportunities to ship anything almost anywhere. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have also opened new pathways to an increasingly global market place. Yet, international agricultural trade is often constrained by differences in regulatory regimes. The impact of “regulatory asymmetry” is particularly acute for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that lack resources and expertise to successfully operate in markets that have substantially different regulatory structures. As governments seek to encourage the development of SMEs, policy makers often confront the critical question of what ultimately motivates SME export behavior. Specifically, there is considerable interest in understanding how SMEs confront the challenges of regulatory asymmetry. Neoclassical models of the firm generally emphasize expected profit maximization under uncertainty, however these approaches do not adequately explain the entrepreneurial decision under regulatory asymmetry. Behavioral theories of the firm offer a far richer understanding of decision making by taking into account aspirations and adaptive performance in risky environments. This paper develops an analytical framework for decision making of a single agent. Considering risk, uncertainty and opportunity cost, the analysis focuses on the export behavior response of an SME in a situation of regulatory asymmetry. Drawing on the experience of fruit processor in Muzaffarpur, India, who must consider different regulatory environments when shipping fruit treated with sulfur dioxide, the study dissects the firm-level decision using @Risk, a Monte Carlo computational tool.

Inferences on earthquake kinematic properties from data inversion: two different approaches

During my PhD, starting from the original formulations proposed by Bertrand et al., 2000 and Emolo & Zollo 2005, I developed inversion methods and applied then at different earthquakes. In particular large efforts have been devoted to the study of the model resolution and to the estimation of the model parameter errors. To study the source kinematic characteristics of the Christchurch earthquake we performed a joint inversion of strong-motion, GPS and InSAR data using a non-linear inversion method. Considering the complexity highlighted by superficial deformation data, we adopted a fault model consisting of two partially overlapping segments, with dimensions 15x11 and 7x7 km2, having different faulting styles. This two-fault model allows to better reconstruct the complex shape of the superficial deformation data. The total seismic moment resulting from the joint inversion is 3.0x1025 dyne.cm (Mw = 6.2) with an average rupture velocity of 2.0 km/s. Errors associated with the kinematic model have been estimated of around 20-30 %. The 2009 Aquila sequence was characterized by an intense aftershocks sequence that lasted several months. In this study we applied an inversion method that assumes as data the apparent Source Time Functions (aSTFs), to a Mw 4.0 aftershock of the Aquila sequence. The estimation of aSTFs was obtained using the deconvolution method proposed by Vallée et al., 2004. The inversion results show a heterogeneous slip distribution, characterized by two main slip patches located NW of the hypocenter, and a variable rupture velocity distribution (mean value of 2.5 km/s), showing a rupture front acceleration in between the two high slip zones. Errors of about 20% characterize the final estimated parameters.

Seismic tomographic full-waveform inversion for the Vrancea sinking lithosphere structure using the adjoint method.

The Vrancea region, at the south-eastern bend of the Carpathian Mountains in Romania, represents one of the most puzzling seismically active zones of Europe. Beside some shallow seismicity spread across the whole Romanian territory, Vrancea is the place of an intense seismicity with the presence of a cluster of intermediate-depth foci placed in a narrow nearly vertical volume. Although large-scale mantle seismic tomographic studies have revealed the presence of a narrow, almost vertical, high-velocity body in the upper mantle, the nature and the geodynamic of this deep intra-continental seismicity is still questioned. High-resolution seismic tomography could help to reveal more details in the subcrustal structure of Vrancea. Recent developments in computational seismology as well as the availability of parallel computing now allow to potentially retrieve more information out of seismic waveforms and to reach such high-resolution models. This study was aimed to evaluate the application of a full waveform inversion tomography at regional scale for the Vrancea lithosphere using data from the 1999 six months temporary local network CALIXTO. Starting from a detailed 3D Vp, Vs and density model, built on classical travel-time tomography together with gravity data, I evaluated the improvements obtained with the full waveform inversion approach. The latter proved to be highly problem dependent and highly computational expensive. The model retrieved after the first two iterations does not show large variations with respect to the initial model but remains in agreement with previous tomographic models. It presents a well-defined downgoing slab shape high velocity anomaly, composed of a N-S horizontal anomaly in the depths between 40 and 70km linked to a nearly vertical NE-SW anomaly from 70 to 180km.

Kinematic models of interseismic deformation from inversion of GPS and InSAR measurements to estimate fault parameters and coupling degree

We have used kinematic models in two Italian regions to reproduce surface interseismic velocities obtained from InSAR and GPS measurements. We have considered a Block modeling, BM, approach to evaluate which fault system is actively accommodating the occurring deformation in both considered areas. We have performed a study for the Umbria-Marche Apennines, obtaining that the tectonic extension observed by GPS measurements is explained by the active contribution of at least two fault systems, one of which is the Alto Tiberina fault, ATF. We have estimated also the interseismic coupling distribution for the ATF using a 3D surface and the result shows an interesting correlation between the microseismicity and the uncoupled fault portions. The second area analyzed concerns the Gargano promontory for which we have used jointly the available InSAR and GPS velocities. Firstly we have attached the two datasets to the same terrestrial reference frame and then using a simple dislocation approach, we have estimated the best fault parameters reproducing the available data, providing a solution corresponding to the Mattinata fault. Subsequently we have considered within a BM analysis both GPS and InSAR datasets in order to evaluate if the Mattinata fault may accommodate the deformation occurring in the central Adriatic due to the relative motion between the North-Adriatic and South-Adriatic plates. We obtain that the deformation occurring in that region should be accommodated by more that one fault system, that is however difficult to detect since the poor coverage of geodetic measurement offshore of the Gargano promontory. Finally we have performed also the estimate of the interseismic coupling distribution for the Mattinata fault, obtaining a shallow coupling pattern. Both of coupling distributions found using the BM approach have been tested by means of resolution checkerboard tests and they demonstrate that the coupling patterns depend on the geodetic data positions.

Inversion of low frequency seismo-volcanic events

The inversion of seismo-volcanic events is performed to retrieve the source geometry and to determine volumetric budgets of the source. Such observations have shown to be an important tool for the seismological monitoring of volcanoes. We developed a novel technique for the non-linear constrained inversion of low frequency seismo-volcanic events. Unconstrained linear inversion methods work well when a dense network of broadband seismometers is available. We propose a new constrained inversion technique, which has shown to be efficient also in a reduced network configuration and a low signal-noise ratio. The waveform inversion is performed in the frequency domain, constraining the source mechanism during the event to vary only in its magnitude. The eigenvectors orientation and the eigenvalue ratio are kept constant. This significantly reduces the number of parameters to invert, making the procedure more stable. The method has been tested over a synthetic dataset, reproducing realistic very-long-period (VLP) signals of Stromboli volcano. The information obtained by performing the synthetic tests is used to assess the reliability of the results obtained on a VLP dataset recorded on Stromboli volcano and on a low frequency events recorded at Vesuvius volcano.