Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Transposable elements: structure and dynamic of the autonomous retrotransposon R2 in Arthropoda with non-canonical reproduction

Eukaryotic ribosomal DNA constitutes a multi gene family organized in a cluster called nucleolar organizer region (NOR); this region is composed usually by hundreds to thousands of tandemly repeated units. Ribosomal genes, being repeated sequences, evolve following the typical pattern of concerted evolution. The autonomous retroelement R2 inserts in the ribosomal gene 28S, leading to defective 28S rDNA genes. R2 element, being a retrotransposon, performs its activity in the genome multiplying its copy number through a “copy and paste” mechanism called target primed reverse transcription. It consists in the retrotranscription of the element’s mRNA into DNA, then the DNA is integrated in the target site. Since the retrotranscription can be interrupted, but the integration will be carried out anyway, truncated copies of the element will also be present in the genome. The study of these truncated variants is a tool to examine the activity of the element. R2 phylogeny appears, in general, not consistent with that of its hosts, except some cases (e.g. Drosophila spp. and Reticulitermes spp.); moreover R2 is absent in some species (Fugu rubripes, human, mouse, etc.), while other species have more R2 lineages in their genome (the turtle Mauremys reevesii, the Japanese beetle Popilia japonica, etc). R2 elements here presented are isolated in 4 species of notostracan branchiopods and in two species of stick insects, whose reproductive strategies range from strict gonochorism to unisexuality. From sequencing data emerges that in Triops cancriformis (Spanish gonochoric population), in Lepidurus arcticus (two putatively unisexual populations from Iceland) and in Bacillus rossius (gonochoric population from Capalbio) the R2 elements are complete and encode functional proteins, reflecting the general features of this family of transposable elements. On the other hand, R2 from Italian and Austrian populations of T. cancriformis (respectively unisexual and hermaphroditic), Lepidurus lubbocki (two elements within the same Italian population, gonochoric but with unfunctional males) and Bacillus grandii grandii (gonochoric population from Ponte Manghisi) have sequences that encode incomplete or non-functional proteins in which it is possible to recognize only part of the characteristic domains. In Lepidurus couesii (Italian gonochoric populations) different elements were found as in L. lubbocki, and the sequencing is still in progress. Two hypothesis are given to explain the inconsistency of R2/host phylogeny: vertical inheritance of the element followed by extinction/diversification or horizontal transmission. My data support previous study that state the vertical transmission as the most likely explanation; nevertheless horizontal transfer events can’t be excluded. I also studied the element’s activity in Spanish populations of T. cancriformis, in L. lubbocki, in L. arcticus and in gonochoric and parthenogenetic populations of B. rossius. In gonochoric populations of T. cancriformis and B. rossius I found that each individual has its own private set of truncated variants. The situation is the opposite for the remaining hermaphroditic/parthenogenetic species and populations, all individuals sharing – in the so far analyzed samples - the majority of variants. This situation is very interesting, because it isn’t concordant with the Muller’s ratchet theory that hypothesizes the parthenogenetic populations being either devoided of transposable elements or TEs overloaded. My data suggest a possible epigenetic mechanism that can block the retrotransposon activity, and in this way deleterious mutations don’t accumulate.

Essays in Health Economics

In the first chapter we develop a theoretical model investigating food consumption and body weight with a novel assumption regarding human caloric expenditure (i.e. metabolism), in order to investigate why individuals can be rationally trapped in an excessive weight equilibrium and why they struggle to lose weight even when offered incentives for weight-loss. This assumption allows the theoretical model to have multiple equilibria and to provide an explanation for why losing weight is so difficult even in the presence of incentives, without relying on rational addiction, time-inconsistency preferences or bounded rationality. In addition to this result we are able to characterize under which circumstances a temporary incentive can create a persistent weight loss. In the second chapter we investigate the possible contributions that social norms and peer effects had on the spread of obesity. In recent literature peer effects and social norms have been characterized as important pathways for the biological and behavioral spread of body weight, along with decreased food prices and physical activity. We add to this literature by proposing a novel concept of social norm related to what we define as social distortion in weight perception. The theoretical model shows that, in equilibrium, the effect of an increase in peers' weight on i's weight is unrelated to health concerns while it is mainly associated with social concerns. Using regional data from England we prove that such social component is significant in influencing individual weight. In the last chapter we investigate the relationship between body weight and employment probability. Using a semi-parametric regression we show that men and women employment probability do not follow a linear relationship with body mass index (BMI) but rather an inverted U-shaped one, peaking at a BMI way over the clinical threshold for overweight.