Development of parallelizable flood inundation models for large scale analysis

Flood disasters are a major cause of fatalities and economic losses, and several studies indicate that global flood risk is currently increasing. In order to reduce and mitigate the impact of river flood disasters, the current trend is to integrate existing structural defences with non structural measures. This calls for a wider application of advanced hydraulic models for flood hazard and risk mapping, engineering design, and flood forecasting systems. Within this framework, two different hydraulic models for large scale analysis of flood events have been developed. The two models, named CA2D and IFD-GGA, adopt an integrated approach based on the diffusive shallow water equations and a simplified finite volume scheme. The models are also designed for massive code parallelization, which has a key importance in reducing run times in large scale and high-detail applications. The two models were first applied to several numerical cases, to test the reliability and accuracy of different model versions. Then, the most effective versions were applied to different real flood events and flood scenarios. The IFD-GGA model showed serious problems that prevented further applications. On the contrary, the CA2D model proved to be fast and robust, and able to reproduce 1D and 2D flow processes in terms of water depth and velocity. In most applications the accuracy of model results was good and adequate to large scale analysis. Where complex flow processes occurred local errors were observed, due to the model approximations. However, they did not compromise the correct representation of overall flow processes. In conclusion, the CA model can be a valuable tool for the simulation of a wide range of flood event types, including lowland and flash flood events.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Modellistica Idraulico-Matematica per la definizione di strategie di mitigazione del rischio alluvionale

La Comunità Europea, alla luce dei recenti eventi alluvionali occorsi nei Paesi Membri ed al progressivo aumento dei danni economici da essi provocati, ha recentemente emanato una direttiva (Direttiva Europea 2007/60/CE, Flood Directive) per la valutazione e la predisposizione di piani di gestione del rischio idraulico alluvionale. Con riferimento a tale contesto l’attività di ricerca condotta si è concentrata sulla valutazione delle potenzialità offerte dalla modellistica numerico-idraulica mono e bidimensionale quale strumento per l’attuazione della Direttiva 2007/60. Le attività sono state affrontate ponendo particolare attenzione alla valutazione dei termini di incertezza che caratterizzano l’applicazione dei modelli numerico-idraulici, esaminando i possibili effetti di tale incertezza sulla mappatura della pericolosità idraulica. In particolare, lo studio si concentra su diversi tratti fluviali del corso medio inferiore del Fiume Po e si articola in tre parti: 1) analisi dell’incertezza connessa alla definizione delle scale di deflusso in una generica sezione fluviale e valutazione dei suoi effetti sulla calibrazione dei modelli numerici quasi-bidimensionali (quasi-2D); 2) definizione di mappe probabilistiche di allagamento per tratti fluviali arginati in presenza di tre sorgenti di incertezza: incertezza nelle condizioni al contorno di monte, nelle condizioni di valle e nell’identificazione delle eventuali brecce arginali; 3) valutazione dell’applicabilità di un modello quasi-2D per la definizione, a grande scala spaziale, di strategie alternative al tradizionale rialzo dei manufatti arginali per la mitigazione del rischio alluvionale associato a eventi di piena catastrofici. Le analisi condotte, oltre ad aver definito e valutato le potenzialità di metodologie e modelli idraulici a diversa complessità, hanno evidenziato l’entità e l’impatto dei più importanti elementi d’incertezza, sottolineando come la corretta mappatura della pericolosità idraulica debba sempre essere accompagnata da una valutazione della sua incertezza.

Development of control-oriented models of Dual Clutch Transmission systems

A control-oriented model of a Dual Clutch Transmission was developed for real-time Hardware In the Loop (HIL) applications, to support model-based development of the DCT controller. The model is an innovative attempt to reproduce the fast dynamics of the actuation system while maintaining a step size large enough for real-time applications. The model comprehends a detailed physical description of hydraulic circuit, clutches, synchronizers and gears, and simplified vehicle and internal combustion engine sub-models. As the oil circulating in the system has a large bulk modulus, the pressure dynamics are very fast, possibly causing instability in a real-time simulation; the same challenge involves the servo valves dynamics, due to the very small masses of the moving elements. Therefore, the hydraulic circuit model has been modified and simplified without losing physical validity, in order to adapt it to the real-time simulation requirements. The results of offline simulations have been compared to on-board measurements to verify the validity of the developed model, that was then implemented in a HIL system and connected to the TCU (Transmission Control Unit). Several tests have been performed: electrical failure tests on sensors and actuators, hydraulic and mechanical failure tests on hydraulic valves, clutches and synchronizers, and application tests comprehending all the main features of the control performed by the TCU. Being based on physical laws, in every condition the model simulates a plausible reaction of the system. The first intensive use of the HIL application led to the validation of the new safety strategies implemented inside the TCU software. A test automation procedure has been developed to permit the execution of a pattern of tests without the interaction of the user; fully repeatable tests can be performed for non-regression verification, allowing the testing of new software releases in fully automatic mode.