Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Stream sediments analysis for geochemical mapping of Romagna Apennines (Northern Italy): monitoring and management tool of environmental resources at various scales

Geochemical mapping is a valuable tool for the control of territory that can be used not only in the identification of mineral resources and geological, agricultural and forestry studies but also in the monitoring of natural resources by giving solutions to environmental and economic problems. Stream sediments are widely used in the sampling campaigns carried out by the world's governments and research groups for their characteristics of broad representativeness of rocks and soils, for ease of sampling and for the possibility to conduct very detailed sampling In this context, the environmental role of stream sediments provides a good basis for the implementation of environmental management measures, in fact the composition of river sediments is an important factor in understanding the complex dynamics that develop within catchment basins therefore they represent a critical environmental compartment: they can persistently incorporate pollutants after a process of contamination and release into the biosphere if the environmental conditions change. It is essential to determine whether the concentrations of certain elements, in particular heavy metals, can be the result of natural erosion of rocks containing high concentrations of specific elements or are generated as residues of human activities related to a certain study area. This PhD thesis aims to extract from an extensive database on stream sediments of the Romagna rivers the widest spectrum of informations. The study involved low and high order stream in the mountain and hilly area, but also the sediments of the floodplain area, where intensive agriculture is active. The geochemical signals recorded by the stream sediments will be interpreted in order to reconstruct the natural variability related to bedrock and soil contribution, the effects of the river dynamics, the anomalous sites, and with the calculation of background values be able to evaluate their level of degradation and predict the environmental risk.

The role of Proteasome in the development, maintenance and management of Chronic Pain

In chronic pain, opioids represent the gold standard analgesics, but their use is hampered by the development of several side effects, as development of analgesic tolerance and opioid-induced hyperalgesia. Evidence showed that many molecular mechanisms (changes in opioid receptors, neurotransmitter release, and glia/microglia activation) are involved in their appearance, as well as in chronic pain. Recently, a crucial role has been proposed for oxidative stress and proteasome in chronic pain and in treatment-related side effects. To better elucidate these aspects, the aim of this PhD thesis was to investigate the effects of opioids on cell oxidative stress, antioxidant enzymatic machinery and proteasome expression and activity in vitro. Also, the involvement of proteasome in the development of chronic pain conditions was investigated utilizing an experimental model of oxaliplatin-induced neuropathy (OXAIN), in vivo. Data showed that morphine, fentanyl, buprenorphine and tapentadol alter differently ROS production. The ROS increasing effect of morphine is not shared by the other opioids, suggesting that the different pharmacological profile could influence this parameter. Moreover, these drugs produced different alterations of β2trypsin-like and β5chymotrypsin-like activities. In fact, while morphine and fentanyl increased the proteolytic activity after prolonged exposure, a different picture was observed for buprenorphine and tapentadol, suggesting that the level of MOR agonism could be strongly related with proteasome activation. In vivo studies revealed that rats treated with oxaliplatin showed a significant increase in β5, in the thalamus (TH) and somatosensory cortex (SSCx). Moreover, a selective up-regulation of β5 and LMP7 subunit gene expression was assessed in the SSCx. Furthermore, our study revealed that oprozomib, a selective β5 inhibitor normalized the spinal prodynorphin gene expression upregulation induced by oxaliplatin, and reverted mechanical/thermal allodynia and mechanical hyperalgesia in oxaliplatin-treated rats. These results underline the role of proteasome in the OXAIN and suggest new pharmacological targets to counteract it.

Methods and tools for analysis and management of risks and regulatory compliance in the healthcare sector: the hospital at home – HaH

Changing or creating an organisation means creating a new process. Each process involves many risks that need to be identified and managed. The main risks considered here are procedural and legal risks. The former are related to the risks of errors that may occur during processes, while the latter are related to the compliance of processes with regulations. Managing the risks implies proposing changes to the processes that allow the desired result: an optimised process. In order to manage a company and optimise it in the best possible way, not only should the organisational aspect, risk management and legal compliance be taken into account, but it is important that they are all analysed simultaneously with the aim of finding the right balance that satisfies them all. This is the aim of this thesis, to provide methods and tools to balance these three characteristics, and to enable this type of optimisation, ICT support is used. This work isn’t a thesis in computer science or law, but rather an interdisciplinary thesis. Most of the work done so far is vertical and in a specific domain. The particularity and aim of this thesis is not to carry out an in-depth analysis of a particular aspect, but rather to combine several important aspects, normally analysed separately, which however have an impact and influence each other. In order to carry out this kind of interdisciplinary analysis, the knowledge base of both areas was involved and the combination and collaboration of different experts in the various fields was necessary. Although the methodology described is generic and can be applied to all sectors, the case study considered is a new type of healthcare service that allows patients in acute disease to be hospitalised to their home. This provide the possibility to perform experiments using real hospital database.

Assessing the state of Nephrops norvegicus and management measures in the Central Adriatic Sea

Nephrops norvegicus is a sedentary bottom-dwelling crustacean that represents one of the main commercial species exploited in the Adriatic Sea (Central Mediterranean). An evaluation of the status of this important resource is thus extremely important in order to manage it in a sustainable way. The evaluation of N. norvegicus is complicated by several issues, mainly: (i) the complex biology and behaviour of the species itself, (ii) the presence of subpopulations with different biological traits within the same stock unit. Relevant concentration of N.norvegicus occurs within the Pomo/Jabuka Pits area which is characterised by peculiar oceanographic and geophysical conditions. This area represented for a long time an important fishing ground shared by Italian and Croatian fleets and recently a Fishery Restricted Area (FRA) was established there. The aim of the present study is to perform for the first time an evaluation of the status of the N.norvegicus subpopulation inhabiting the Pomo/Jabuka Pits also accounting for the possible effects on it of the management measures. To achieve this, the principal fisheryindependent and fishery-dependent dataset available for the study area were firstly analysed and then treated. Data collected by the CNR-IRBIM of Ancona through both indirect (“UWTV”) and direct (trawling) methods were refined by means of a revision of the time series and related biases, and a modelling approach accounting for environmental and fishery effects, respectively. Commercial data for both Italy and Croatia were treated in order to obtain landings and length distributions for the Pomo area only; an historical reconstruction of data starting from 1970 was carried out for both countries. The obtained information was used as input for a Bayesian length-based stock assessment model developed through the CASAL software; the flexibility of this model is recommended for N.norvegicus and similar species allowing to deal with sex- and fleet-based integrated assessment method

Evaluation and management of demersal stocks in the Adriatic: the case of common sole (Solea solea, L.) in the northern and central Adriatic Sea

This PhD thesis aimed to assess the status of common sole, one of the main commercial stocks in the Adriatic Sea, using a mix of conventional and innovative techniques to provide more reliable estimates of stock status compared to past advice. First, a meta-analysis was carried out using data-poor assessment model to analyze the whole catch assemblage of rapido fishery. The outcomes were used to estimate rebuilding time and forecast catches under different harvest control rule scenarios, with a reduction of 20% of fishing effort being suggested as a way to allow most of the species to recover to sustainable levels. Secondly, an ensemble of data-rich assessment models was developed to better incorporate uncertainty by using alternative hypotheses of main parameters. This was the first time an ensemble of models has been used in the Mediterranean to provide management advice. Consistent with data-poor analysis results, the ensemble outcomes indicated that the common sole stock was showing a recovering trend probably due to the effective management actions underway in the area rather than the moderate effort reduction according to the actual management plan. Moreover, back-calculation measurements were used to fit and compare monophasic and biphasic growth curves through the use of non-linear mixed effects models. The analyses revealed that the fitting of the biphasic curve was superior, confirming the theory that growth in size would decrease as a consequence of reproductive effort. A stock assessment simulation showed how the use of the monophasic pattern would result in a critical overestimation of biomass that could lead to a greater risk of overfishing. As a final step, a simulation-testing procedure was applied to determine the best performing reference points using stock-specific characteristic. The procedure could be routinely adopted to increase transparency in reference points calculation enhancing the credibility of scientific advice.

Characterization and management of particular classes of waste at a regional level. case study: Marche region

There are various methods to analyse waste, which differ from each other according to the level of detail of the compositio. Waste composed by plastic and used for packaging, for example, can be classified by chemical composition of the polymer used for the specific product. At a more basal level, before dividing a waste according to the specific chemical material of which it is composed it is possible and also important to classify it according to the material category. So, if the secondary aim is to consider the particular polymer that constitutes a plastic waste, or what kind of natural polymer composes a specific waste made of wood, the first aim is to classify the product category of the material that makes up the waste, so, if it is wood made, or plastic, or glass made or metal, or organic. There are not specific instruments to make this subdivision, not specific chemical tests, but only a manual recognition of the material that makes up the product or waste. The first steps of this study is a recognition of the materials of which the waste is composed, the second is a the quantification of differentiated and unsorted waste produced in the area under study, the third is a mass balance of the portions of waste sent for recovery in order to obtain information on quantities that can be effectively recovered and ready for new life cycle as raw material; the fourth and last step is an environmental assessment that provides information on the environmental cost of the recovery process. This process scheme is applied to various specific kinds of waste from separate collection generated in a specific area with the aim to find a model analysis appliable to other portions of territory in order to improve knowledge of recovery technologies.

Distributed argumentation technology: advancing risk analysis and regulatory compliance of distributed ledger technologies for transaction and management of securities

Distributed argumentation technology is a computational approach incorporating argumentation reasoning mechanisms within multi-agent systems. For the formal foundations of distributed argumentation technology, in this thesis we conduct a principle-based analysis of structured argumentation as well as abstract multi-agent and abstract bipolar argumentation. The results of the principle-based approach of these theories provide an overview and guideline for further applications of the theories. Moreover, in this thesis we explore distributed argumentation technology using distributed ledgers. We envision an Intelligent Human-input-based Blockchain Oracle (IHiBO), an artificial intelligence tool for storing argumentation reasoning. We propose a decentralized and secure architecture for conducting decision-making, addressing key concerns of trust, transparency, and immutability. We model fund management with agent argumentation in IHiBO and analyze its compliance with European fund management legal frameworks. We illustrate how bipolar argumentation balances pros and cons in legal reasoning in a legal divorce case, and how the strength of arguments in natural language can be represented in structured arguments. Finally, we discuss how distributed argumentation technology can be used to advance risk management, regulatory compliance of distributed ledgers for financial securities, and dialogue techniques.